RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (Full Version)

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glyphoglossus -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/10/2016 10:58:08 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

As far as I know the number required is an estimate for the next 30 days, but it can vary a lot depending on
what is happening. Note that the manual does not state that the required number of supplies will be used in
one day, but it is the number required to function at full efficiency( these are two different concepts )


Though the manual does say:

quote:

pg. 205, says that the base info screen shows "Supplies on hand (1728), Supplies Required (417) per day in order to function at full efficiency ..."


So the "supplies required" is the amount required per day, but it is not the amount that actually will be used per day.

Which means that it is an estimate of what it will be used per day, but this estimate is based on a lot of factors in the recent past which may or may not hold going forward, but still is the roughly the amount used per day .... right?

quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=2878790&mpage=1&key=logistics%2C101?


Thank you for pointing this out. As I said in my post, I have read this, and done my best to understand this, along with the manual. In fact, the only reason I got far enough as I did was because I had done due diligence in this regard. What I was asking for is a check/correction of my math by an experienced player. I recognize that this is placing a burden of time on the part of said experienced players, for which I am duly appreciative. I personally do not think this is an unreasonable thing to ask on forums such as this, but if it is, let me know.

Referring me to a post which I have stated I have read before implies that I did not understand it or missed something there. That's certainly possible! But I have read it a third time now, and I really do not see how it covers my specific question: i.e., planning for sufficient supply to cover the shipping times back and forth from the sources. If I have missed that, mea culpa, let me know and I will look at it again.




glyphoglossus -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/10/2016 11:12:36 PM)

I should also note that, for some reason, at least for me, it seems impossible to search the forums the last couple of days. No matter what I do, I keep getting the "the system could not find any record" message. Even for searches that I know have worked before.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/11/2016 11:29:12 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: glyphoglossus


Well, TBH, 75K did seem high!

This "3000" value was what was displayed in the "Supplies Required" field, which I took to mean the (rough, ever-changing) estimate of daily consumption. This was based on the manual, which on pg. 205, says that the base info screen shows "Supplies on hand (1728), Supplies Required (417) per day in order to function at full efficiency ..."

Am I misreading that this value is the daily rate? Or is the manual wrong?

I also asked for clarification here:

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4176063

and at least one forum user confirmed that it was indeed a per day rate.



The base Supplies Required is often nothing more than the sum of the Supplies Required figures for all resident LCUs. I just looked at my Luganville and the numbers are exact. If there are aircraft operating, the base can be quite a bit higher. For example, my Suva's LCUs want about 500 Supplies Required, but I have ASW ops there and the base's number is about 3700.

But Supplies Required is a data point that has virtually no meaning in turn-to-turn operations. For the base even less because bases do many things other than keep LCUs fed. Most of those things require supply. For example, anyplace I ever plan to place planes I shoot for 20k minimums and then factor in some spoilage. The LCUs are onlookers in that decision.

For LCUs, the Supplies Required number of necessity is rearward-facing. I do believe it's a 30-day month, but I could be wrong there. I also believe there is some kind of smoothing algorithm under the hood that weights the 30 days differently, recent more of course. Like so many algos I don't think this has ever been disclosed, nor will it ever be. Regardless, if tomorrow a two ID invasion hits Luganville the smoothing is out the window. You don't have enough supply.

So this is what people have been saying. The game is only partly about tumbling nums. Yes, you have to do some, either crudely or with spreadsheets, but you have to manage the logistics. In a GC, over real-time years, that becomes a monumental task even without spreadsheets. It can become tedious. But more than that the game is about strategy. Look at some expert AARs and note how little time they spend talking about logistics detail.

Paraphrasing Heinlein, if you get absorbed in adjusting a rheostat, your loin-clothed enemy is going to sneak up and kill you with a stone knife.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/11/2016 11:43:18 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn


A current situation:

As Allies I control the base, no aircraft. The Japanese have been trying to take it.

Noumea:

25 April preturnSave
Supplies:2418
Supplies Required:456

26 April
Supplies:2423
Supplies Required:460


yet little supply is used. As player calculating your needs....FLEXIBILTY!!! not carved in stone. Need to apply Kentucky Windage.


Not much happen last turn. No supply delivery. 5 supply gain ????? From Noumea? It's not showing.

[image]local://upfiles/55056/07A5A22DADEE465CA49B7636041C64FB.jpg[/image]


If supply at a base increases from one turn to the next there are four sources I can think of:

1. The base made some
2. Some came in from elsewhere
3. Rounding error
4. A bug

Your screenshots don't show hexside control, nor who controls the bases to the north. You don't discuss any possible patrol, transport, or bomber missions flying in supply (easy to forget you set these up weeks later.)

But in my stock Scenario 2 game, Noumea makes LI 10. You have a lot of Resources piled there. Your screenshots cut off the icon line at the bottom. Unless you're playing a scenario where Noumea was altered, that's the source of your supply growth of 5, net from 10.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planni (11/11/2016 11:47:49 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Itdepends

Bulllwinkle,
I dont consider it whining and although I am aware of the functionality of the green button I also enjoy Alfreds insights. However newcomers to the forum do not have the experience with either his expert knowledge or his lapses of etiquette. You provided the OP insight into one of those facets in your post, I provided the other. You may note that I didn't post in the other thread, there wasnt the need. Makeelearnee provided an excellent response.

I do however find it amusing that you found my post distasteful enough to comment on when 90% of it was not mine. Do you object to the tone of my few lines or is it because It highlights the behaivour you are willing to accept as long as the poster is technically proficient?



I saw your cut & paste from elsewhere and assumed your intent was to pour gasoline on a fire re Alfred.

I stand by my previous post. The number of forumites who have complained about Alfred's manner is well into three figures by now. Most are long gone. Alfred is still here. If you enjoy his posts for their knowledge then you have a decision to make.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/11/2016 11:52:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

Which scenario are you playing? Some have supply generation at Noumea.
It looks like you might have 20 LI there producing 20 supply. 15 used and 5 stored.



had to change computers.

industry info It produces 10 supply but should it not be showing on the base screen?

scripture:

"If a slash and a second number follows either of these values, the number to the right of the slash is the number of these items produced per day at this base"


write the least to state a idea.... Yoda does.



The UI notation for what you're describing is a bit odd. The "slash" notation is for what the forum has long taken to calling "organic supply." This is supply that the base generates naturally, no matter what, every turn. It can't be stopped, it can't be attacked, and it doesn't require infrastructure to produce. Only a relatively few bases have this feature, most of them in China.

Bases that produce supply from industry--LI, HI, Refineries--don't use slash notation. They just produce and the results dump into the base stockpile, or are immediately used in the proper turn resolution phase.



Bullwinkle58 -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/11/2016 11:56:02 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: glyphoglossus

Referring me to a post which I have stated I have read before implies that I did not understand it or missed something there. That's certainly possible! But I have read it a third time now, and I really do not see how it covers my specific question: i.e., planning for sufficient supply to cover the shipping times back and forth from the sources. If I have missed that, mea culpa, let me know and I will look at it again.




Yesterday I had very limited time in the morning. I looked at the forum a bit before 0600, half-asleep. I saw you had a logistics question. I didn't read all of your post. I quickly scrolled down the post stack to see if anyone had referred you to Alfred's guide, saw that no, and posted the link before heading off to the shower. I did not mean to imply you didn't understand what he had said.



Sardaukar -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/11/2016 12:03:53 PM)

Some general musings:

Alfred is living AE encyclopedia. His manner is sometimes bit rash, but there are very few players who do not appreciate his efforts. He is usually 99.9% correct and I am kind of proud that I managed to correct him *once* compared to him correcting me dozen times. And I cannot be called new for this game. [:D]

That been said, supply etc. things tend to be way more relevant to player that plays Japan. Production/industry/supply etc. for Japan is entirely new game inside game. There are some good guides for that too.

As Allies, just ship fuel to India and Oz. This is of course strategic sense. Operationally you want to have fuel/supply hub somewhere to support your operations.

WitP:AE is sometimes called game of logistics for reason...but then, war is a lot about logistics and those often unrecognized supply clerks.



glyphoglossus -> RE: Check my base resupply estimates planning (11/12/2016 12:04:25 AM)



quote:

ORIGINAL: Bullwinkle58
So this is what people have been saying. The game is only partly about tumbling nums. Yes, you have to do some, either crudely or with spreadsheets, but you have to manage the logistics. In a GC, over real-time years, that becomes a monumental task even without spreadsheets. It can become tedious. But more than that the game is about strategy. Look at some expert AARs and note how little time they spend talking about logistics detail.

Paraphrasing Heinlein, if you get absorbed in adjusting a rheostat, your loin-clothed enemy is going to sneak up and kill you with a stone knife.


Thanks. That makes sense. And I know that's how old hands play. And I AM listening to all of you! I really am: I am recognizing what to focus on and what to allow to be fuzzy. It is difficult not to get caught up in the numbers in the meantime.

But as a newbie, I want to understand the principles and think for myself: the why's and not just the what's. As I said, I am just making the transition from "Coral Sea" to "Guadalcanal", and the biggest difference there (in terms of gameplay) is logistics. So, starting Guadalcanal as Allies, I realize I have to supply Noumea, Efate, Luganville, Lunga, Port Moresby and Milne Bay. As a newbie, looking at all of that the first time, I have no idea how to balance those loads. Sure, I can copy somebody else's plans. I understand as the Allied player I can afford to just overestimate and add some ships here and there and get everything through, but then what happens as an Japanese player?

So I read the manual, and read these forums, etc. again and again. And, at THIS stage of learning, the numbers serve as useful signposts in the fog to anchor the planning: of what 30000 in supply means vs. 3000, or when one base says supplies required 1000 and another says 10000, how often/big convoys need to be planned for either. And sometimes, I just need a little nudge here for me to gain a sense of what the numbers mean and how they should be seen. I appreciate the forum's patience and generosity with time/information in helping me in this regard.




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