OT: US war entry (Full Version)

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Numdydar -> OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 6:08:36 PM)

The US entered the War in August '42 in my game. I just do not think that was historically feasible. So I thought I'd get other people's thoughts on the topic and see if the entry date should be fixed to December 7th (or later if chits are used).

I realize that elimates some of the variablity of the game. But I just do not see the US coming in until after Pearl Harbor.

Comments?



xwormwood -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 6:36:42 PM)

August '42 sounds a bit late. My guess: the allies did something to cool down the american war readiness (like attacking neutral minors).
The USA might enter before December 1941 if Spain joins the Axis or if important neutrals get attacked by the Axis (Sweden, Switzerland, Portugal).



Numdydar -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 8:28:07 PM)

Given the attitude against getting involved in another foreign war at the time. That makes this even worse [:(]

Even by December of '41 the Axis have overrun most of Russia, close to kicking the British out of Egypt and the US still was neutral. So I do not think that adding in Spain/Turkey would have made any difference to the US.

Without the direct attack by Japan, it is an open question if the US would have gone to war at all.

I agree that the Axis being successful in, not just invading the U.K., but in taking London, that might have been enough. But short of that I just do not see the US entering the War on their own.



xwormwood -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 8:36:45 PM)

Not sure if your talking about historrical background or about your current game.
Regarding the historical background: it was Nazi-Germany that declared war on the the USA, not the other war round.



RolandRahn_MatrixForum -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 8:44:24 PM)

I disagree - the United States was already participating in the battle of the Atlantic before Pearl Harbor.

Starting in September 1941, the United States Navy escorted allied convoys, leading to the Greer incident (German submarine torpedoing a USN destroyer), the Kearney incident (USN destroyer dropping depth charges, resulting in a torpedo attack with one hit resulting in 11 USN sailors KIA) and, eventually, USS Reuben James being sunk on 10/31/1941 - more than a month before Pearl Harbor.

All three incidents were mentioned in the German declaration of war (from 12/11/1941). I am pretty confident that without Pearl Harbor, there would have been an excellent chance for war breaking out between Germany and the United States sometime in 1942.

EDIT:
Clarification:
I disagree that the US could not enter the war before/without Pearl Harbor



Goodmongo -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 8:50:12 PM)

Due to the sinking of the Ruben James Gallup did a poll in late September/ early October and over 55% of US respondents not only felt a war with Germany was inevitable but that it would come very soon. So the US people were already conditioned by FDR to accepting a war against Germany.



warspite1 -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 9:00:18 PM)

I don't see that this is a big issue.

FACT: USA entered the war because both Japan and Germany attacked/declared war on her.
FACT: We don't know what it was that would have taken the US to enter if one or both did not happen.

That being the case in a game like this, where whole manner of what-if events are allowed, then why should US entry be any different?

In this game Turkey or Spain or Sweden can be invaded or come into the war - same with MWIF - and US entry is variable.

In a strategic game like this or MWIF that promotes infinite what-ifs and replayability, there should be nothing special about the date of US entry (other than game balance) any more than there is for other countries.

If one doesn't think the US will enter before Pearl Harbor - and in this game the US can enter in say October 1941 - then just tell yourself Japan brought Pearl Harbor forward.



Numdydar -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 9:46:10 PM)

Thanks for all the replies.

But I was wondering when the US might have entered the war without a direct attack in RL. Again my feeling is the US may never gone to war since they were neutral in December '41 when things really looked bad for Europe.

How much worse would things had to get before the US jumped in?




RolandRahn_MatrixForum -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 10:06:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Numdydar

But I was wondering when the US might have entered the war without a direct attack in RL. Again my feeling is the US may never gone to war since they were neutral in December '41 when things really looked bad for Europe.

How much worse would things had to get before the US jumped in?




I think that we are speaking about two different things here.

On the one hand:
How much worse would the general situation in Europe have to be so that the United States would DOW Germany?

On the other hand (at that is my point of view) :
How many more incidents would have had to happen in the Atlantic before the US participation in the Atlantic escalates in a full-scale war?

The zone that was patrolled by the USN could have been expanded eastwards. Since July 1941, Iceland was occupied by the United States. How about a USN Battleship squadron (plus a CV) to protect Murmansk Convoys?

I can see a German Condor Naval Recon plane being shot down by US planes, I can see German land-based aircraft attacking a convoy protected by US ships....and sooner or later, the war would have been official.



Numdydar -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/22/2016 11:22:03 PM)

Well the US did extend it's East Coast protection zone out further sometime in 1940. And German U-boats were told to avoid the area so as not to provoke the US.

I do not see the US escorting convoys flying combatant flags as that would have been an active act of war. Much less ones to Russia.

Without lend lease from the US, it is likely Russia would have fallen in '42. So with that it would even less likely the US would have jumped in.



RolandRahn_MatrixForum -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/23/2016 12:14:35 AM)

Well, one could call what happened in the western part of the Atlantic shortly before Pearl Harbor an undeclared war - or, at the very least, a conflict.

I doubt that the USSR would have fallen in 1942. Lend lease was essential for the later offensives of the red army, it was essential for the red air force (high octane fuel) and there would surely not have been a Bagration in June 1944 without lend lease.

However, the effects of lend lease did not really kick in in 1941 - so, I guess that Leningrad and Moscow would have been hold (in 1941) by the red army even without lend lease, same goes for the winter offensive of 1941/42.

The entire German strategy was based on the USSR collapsing in 1941 - when that didn't happen, the Axis was in deep trouble.

So, the big question is....what would have happened during case blue?

There would probably not have been an Mars and an Uranus later in 1942 - but even with Germany achieving a very expensive, minor victory in Stalingrad, I fail to see the USSR collapsing in 1942.

Would they have taken Baku and being able to effectively use the oil? I doubt it.

Maybe a bloody stalemate in 1943....with Germany keeping a large chunk of the western USSR.

However, I have read Glantz and Stahel, therefore I might be a little biased when it comes to the chances of a German victory against the USSR.



Numdydar -> RE: OT: US war entry (11/23/2016 1:29:41 PM)

Here are some interesting numbers. Unfortunately, I copied these from another site which was unsourced [:(] But it gives the idea of what would have been lost by Russia if the US stayed out.

1941: 360,778t, of which 13,502t Persian Gulf, 193,229t Soviet Far East, 153,977t North Russia.
1942: 2,453,097t of which 705,259t Persian Gulf, 734,020 Soviet Far East, 949,711 North Russia, 64,107 Soviet Artic.
1943: 4,794,545t of which 1,606,979 Persian Gulf, 2,388,577 Soviet Far East, 681,043 North Russia, 117,946 Soviet Artic.
1944: 6,217,622t of which 1,788,864 Persian Gulf, 2,848,181 Soviet Far East, 1,452,775 North Russia, 127,802 Soviet Artic.
1945 3,673,819t (last shipments 20 Sept) of which: 44,513 Persian Gulf, 2,079,320 Soviet Far East, 726,725 North Russia, 680,723 Black Sea, 142,538 Soviet Artic.

So by the end of '42. Approximately 2.7 Mt of aid was supplied. 75% was support, i.e. food, etc., the rest war goods.

The issue is that Russia had a major food shortage in '42/'43. So with the US aid, the army would have dropped since they knew their families would be starving.

You are correct in that '42 would have been the tipping point without US aid.

But '43 could have been even worse since there likely would not have been a winter offensive or one that was no where near as successful by Russia. Since a lot of the food basket of Russia was still in German hands.

Even if the US entered the war in '42, it still would have taken another year to get lend lease ramped up to where it was making a difference.

But the US would not have gone to war just to save Russia is my view. Only if the UK was successfully invaded would the US enter. If Russia fell, then it is likely that the world would have gone back to peace.

Again I just do not see the US getting involved with out direct provocation. Which is something the Germans at least wanted to avoid at all costs. Of course Japan had to screw it all up [:)]

So I just do not see any reason for the game to allow a US entry before December '41. If nothing up to that point in the war had got them in, then I just do not see anything past that point happening to get them to pull the trigger (pun intended [:D]
) on going to war.



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