RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (Full Version)

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Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/3/2017 12:30:46 PM)

My reading of the current activity (almost certainly wrongly interpreted) is that he left the Med fairly early and is already prepped, or very close to and waiting for a chance break in the weather to start early. Based on his past behaviour I wouldn't be surprised if actually he has taken every possible TF north and more divisions from the Med than historical. His focused bombing/attacks on the Winter line are designed to a) take no unnecessary risk but b) keep my attention and prevent as many units from leaving this theatre as possible. I don't think he has any anticipation of his attacks breaking through, and from his recce I'm sure he has a good idea that a landing at Anzio would be highly difficult, but the more divisions I keep committed the better for him. From the occasional recce I put up I think he has at least 13, maybe 16 divisions on the mainland. Its more difficult to judge whats also on the islands and in africa. There is possibly something prepped but not major.
Meanwhile on the winter line we currently have:
10th Army (Balck) - some mech regiments held at army level
LI Gebirgs (Schoerner) - 15 PzGn, 4 FJ, 5 Gebirgs, 114 Jaeger
LXXXV (Kreysing) - 188 Gebirgs, 305 Inf, 1 FJ (-)
LVIII Pz Corps (Von Schweppenburg) - 16SS PzGn, 26 Pz, HG Pz, 44 Inf

Behind the lines is 14th Army (Von Mackensen) - 162 Inf
XIV Pz (Hube) - 29 PzGn, 159 Inf, 266 Inf
Kneiss (Von Manteuffel) - 3 PzGn, 165 Inf, 362 Inf
I FJ (Meindl) - 157 Gebirgs
XI Flieger (Student) - 90 PzGn, 276 Inf (both actually in North Italy but available to deploy)

Over the winter there was also II SS Pz Korps of 9 ss Pz, 10 SS Pz in Rome & 130 Pz Lehr on the east coast. The later just left for France and the others withdrew to Russia.

I was fairly confident this bunch could deal with any winter landing, and quietly confident they acted as a force in being to deter QBall from risking anything. I guess at some point we'll hear that side of the story. Whats now in theatre is not wildly different from historical I think, but we might consider drawing down a little. So the screenshot is what was, and now I need to work on the what next... Which may well be a more pressing concern than usual.
Up in France its a work in progress jockeying troops into position, and to be honest continuing to shift around a bit in order to try to make the intel he planned on be obsolete because by now he has almost certainly committed to a plan.


[image]local://upfiles/43317/0CA737DC890540F9839163B56E6F4FBD.jpg[/image]



Walloc -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/3/2017 2:27:50 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

In other news we have noticed that we are suffering from a severe lack of armaments and assault guns in our ToEs. Which is strange as none of the Stug factories are damaged and the armament factories pretty much the only things untouched. Across the board though divisons on refit fill up with infantry and tanks but miss artillery, anti-tanks guns and assault guns. Which isn't good obviously and I need to study the chain and work out why fast... There seem to be plenty in the pools; 3200 Pak40, 4500 81mm Mtr, 900 105mm howitzers, though only 24 StugIIIG. But none seems to be going where it is needed and artillery bltns arriving depleted at OKW stay empty too. The manual and forum need to be scoured again.


Just to eliminate the more obvious reasons. How is the Manpower situasion? potentially u could have no men to man the stugs/AT guns.



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/3/2017 3:22:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Walloc

quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

In other news we have noticed that we are suffering from a severe lack of armaments and assault guns in our ToEs. Which is strange as none of the Stug factories are damaged and the armament factories pretty much the only things untouched. Across the board though divisons on refit fill up with infantry and tanks but miss artillery, anti-tanks guns and assault guns. Which isn't good obviously and I need to study the chain and work out why fast... There seem to be plenty in the pools; 3200 Pak40, 4500 81mm Mtr, 900 105mm howitzers, though only 24 StugIIIG. But none seems to be going where it is needed and artillery bltns arriving depleted at OKW stay empty too. The manual and forum need to be scoured again.


Just to eliminate the more obvious reasons. How is the Manpower situasion? potentially u could have no men to man the stugs/AT guns.


Yes I wondered that but I have 855k manpower in the pool, losses really haven't been heavy as the temp of ground fighting has been very very low, and I've been conscious of trying to avoid the temptation to refit every Infantry division to fill their ToE unless they are needed at a key point or at the front. As above the pools for 75mm Pak 40 et all are good, and from the log every artillery type produced new pieces this turn. It just doesn't seem to want to end up in divisions.

Also of great frustration this turn is we have just noticed that at some point in the recent past Loehr (Air trait 7) has been replaced as head of Luftwaffe Reich... with Richard Heidrich (air trait 2!!! though at least his Infantry trait is 6...) A strange appointment. I didn't see a message here but from the air battle screen shots until recently can't have been too long ago (though at first I thought it might explain alot...). Pretty disastrous and needless to say I haven't got 22 AP to replace him so we have to sideline him and shift all his aircraft to Luftflotte 3. Not sure if I need to bother changing all the flak assigned to him, thats going to be a lot of clicks...



Walloc -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 2:38:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf



Yes I wondered that but I have 855k manpower in the pool, losses really haven't been heavy as the temp of ground fighting has been very very low, and I've been conscious of trying to avoid the temptation to refit every Infantry division to fill their ToE unless they are needed at a key point or at the front. As above the pools for 75mm Pak 40 et all are good, and from the log every artillery type produced new pieces this turn. It just doesn't seem to want to end up in divisions.


With 855k Manpower I hafta assume u play with the EF box and some how u not feeding it replacements or it has been some odd figthing there. Its a high number and well historicly u hadnt seen that many casulties by this point in Sicily/Italy.

To give a point of refererence. 855k manpower is close to the total replacements received in both the entire MTO/ETO recieved from the 1st of july 1943 until the end of the war on 4/5 May 1945. Including the purely replacement part of the rebuilding after the Sep 1944 "miracle".
U sure that is what is alone in the german Manpower pool? and not the axis combined?, just wondering.

Kind regards,
Rasmus



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 3:36:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Walloc


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf



Yes I wondered that but I have 855k manpower in the pool, losses really haven't been heavy as the temp of ground fighting has been very very low, and I've been conscious of trying to avoid the temptation to refit every Infantry division to fill their ToE unless they are needed at a key point or at the front. As above the pools for 75mm Pak 40 et all are good, and from the log every artillery type produced new pieces this turn. It just doesn't seem to want to end up in divisions.


With 855k Manpower I hafta assume u play with the EF box and some how u not feeding it replacements or it has been some odd figthing there. Its a high number and well historicly u hadnt seen that many casulties by this point in Sicily/Italy.

To give a point of refererence. 855k manpower is close to the total replacements received in both the entire MTO/ETO recieved from the 1st of july 1943 until the end of the war on 4/5 May 1945. Including the purely replacement part of the rebuilding after the Sep 1944 "miracle".
U sure that is what is alone in the german Manpower pool? and not the axis combined?, just wondering.

Kind regards,
Rasmus


EF box is off. We have a few divisions and regiments on refit and they receive squads fine at the 20% of need rate that we would expect. Its the artillery and AT that seems to be hoarding in the pools and only trickling though at 20 or so per turn across the whole army. Its particularly noticable that the 150mm howitzer battalions that arrive at OKW depleted do not fill out at all so far. Clearly its getting to the point where I'm going to need these. I've raised a question in the general forum as at this point I'm certainly confused.



Walloc -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 4:32:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

EF box is off. We have a few divisions and regiments on refit and they receive squads fine at the 20% of need rate that we would expect. Its the artillery and AT that seems to be hoarding in the pools and only trickling though at 20 or so per turn across the whole army. Its particularly noticable that the 150mm howitzer battalions that arrive at OKW depleted do not fill out at all so far. Clearly its getting to the point where I'm going to need these. I've raised a question in the general forum as at this point I'm certainly confused.


Ok... well the replacement rates has been out of wack since Alpha. Its been forever since i played, but if that is true its incredible. Unfortunatly some ppl that thought they knew any thing about this, came with figurs that was totally out of touch with reality and common sense during testing. This was pointed out.

Well Qball better start to use his airforce, as ur capable of inflicting losses far beyond reality with both the LW and Allied airforces in order to combat that pool of men. Or live with an eternally over strength german heer and finding other ways to win, where casulties inflicted does really matter that much.


Smiles,
Rasmus






Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 5:33:24 PM)

I don't think this is manpower related as the pool is about 855k. Aside from losing 14k in Sardinia and that one battle on the winter line the tempo of fighting and losses has been low. I don't expect to face many problems here once the fighting starts in earnest in France. But I do need heavy weapons, and it looks like I do have enough for about 50 battalions of 105mm howitzers, but they are sitting in rows outside the factories. I expect some logistical choke, but hardly anything is shifting. Hopefully they are not going to end up sold on the black market...



Joel Billings -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 5:44:29 PM)

Thanks for the very enjoyable AAR. I answered your replacement question in your main thread, but to summarize, you have only 1300 active German manpower (840k Italian which is not important), and those will tend to go to AFVs. Little combat means little churn and few men coming back as replacements each turn. You will get some infantry from excess support squads, but fundamentally you will get few replacements and have to look at ways to maximize what you have. You probably will need to lower Max TOE of units, and possibly disband some units. It may be possible to funnel replacements into a few artillery support units but using the CR screen to quickly lower the Max TOE of your other units so that they don't take replacements and the few you have go to the units you've left with higher TOEs. Otherwise, it may indeed be hard to get them into support units as I don't know if they meet the requirements for top priority when in a national supply depot.



Joel Billings -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 5:47:21 PM)

BTW, I noticed the Allies only got 9 VPs for bombing and 10 overall in the last turn. The heady days of 1943 (in terms of VPs per turn seem to be gone for the moment). Thanks again for writing this AAR.



Walloc -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 5:53:11 PM)

Gunnulf,

I still wonder if u by accident are looking at the combined axis manpower pool and not the german manpower pool alone, when u come up with the 855k number.

Rasmus

P.S Joel alrdy answered that question



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 6:02:08 PM)

Yep, looks like the big number was leading me to a false sense of security. Now I know I can deal with it and purge a few units to help a bit.
Shame we can't teach those spare Italians to speak Deutsche. Thanks everybody for taking the time to point this out. Clearly need to look at it a bit different from WITE



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 6:18:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joel Billings

BTW, I noticed the Allies only got 9 VPs for bombing and 10 overall in the last turn. The heady days of 1943 (in terms of VPs per turn seem to be gone for the moment). Thanks again for writing this AAR.


Yes, the bombing VP is lower now, though we have to remind ourselves that the underlying damage is still being done! No time for complacency just yet. I think once he starts adding more cities to his empire (ok, ok, 'liberating' if you must... :) ) then I really need to cause some serious delays to stop this slipping towards an allied victory. Time will tell...



Walloc -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 6:57:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Shame we can't teach those spare Italians to speak Deutsche. Thanks everybody for taking the time to point this out. Clearly need to look at it a bit different from WITE


Maybe u can convience Joel....

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/may/30/south-tyrol-live-in-italy-feel-austrian

/Highjack over
Rasmus



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/4/2017 8:40:13 PM)

Nice article. Its a interesting anomaly from not even quite 100 years ago. A beautiful part of the world either way and certainly strange when you go just a short distance from Trento to Bolzano to see such a shift in culture within nominally the same country. But I must admit given the choice I'd rather have Italian food and wine to Austrian... But you are right. Stick a uniform on them and give them a rifle, we need pixel-truppen in numbers.
A few forts that I was going to disband sooner or later as they are manned by other troops now they are build and we lift the (German) manpower pool a bit. But costs us a few APs we were starting to save towards a commander change. We need Paks more than Generals right now though I think.



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/5/2017 12:50:04 PM)

Turn 39 - 25 Mar '44

Heavy rain from north to south grounds most flights. Only a single recce flight observed over the Romanian oil fields, which of course we expect to get hammered sooner rather than later. There is a 5 nation air force in the area, and extra flak has been deployed but no doubt he will come in force.
Given my new found enlightenment about the German pool being more like the population of a Tyrol mountain village rather than a major city we have re-organised a few air bases we had mothballed as FOBs in Italy, disbanded a few fort units that are built and now occupied so are surplus to requirements. This gives us a more healthy pool of 46k and many of the artillery units at OKW start to fill out and will be ready to assign soon so crisis averted.

A few thoughts on the developments on the Atlantic wall which is getting close to as well developed as we can probably hope for.

7th Army has responsibility for Brittany with 3 Infantry Korps, 2 on the north coast and 1 on the south. We were late to occupy the region in force as we kinda wanted QBall to be tempted to see this as a soft touch and start planning and prepping. No idea yet whether he took the bait but now we are deploying here in reasonable strength. Its still the weak spot as Dollman is a pretty poor commander, but now it will cost him to get ashore if he comes. All these divisions bar one are mobile though if we need to march out.

1st Army commands Normandy with 2 Infantry Korps and 1 Pz Korps, they are in reasonable shape to slow any invasion here, with a little defense in depth.

15th Army then covers Le Havre to the Pas de Calais as per historical with 3 Infantry Korps. We have optimised all armies at or slightly below 30 CP in order to maximise command rolls.

1 Fallshirmjaeger Army will arrive next week and take command of 1 Korps in Belgium and 2 Korps in the Netherlands. This is a fairly strong position as I've always had a suspicion that QBall would quite like to punch here to take the shortest route, or at the least set up airbases here. But we demonstrated early by putting extra units to work on forts so hopefully he was dissuaded at his planning stage, or if not he will be coming ashore on the polders fortified to level 3 and the ports at 4. Its no paper-tiger now.

5 Pz Army is in reserve, currently 1 Pz Korps but the 2nd arrives very soon. As mentioned above we have 1 Pz Korps opcom 1 Army for geographic convenience, plus to be honest due to better command ratings. We do have a priority now to find a better army commander for 5 Pz Army as 3 Mech Trait is not going to cut it. Thats a 20AP change though so need to wait a couple weeks. Once done we may consolidate all 3 Pz Korps under him.

Finally, and not to forget, Denmark has a reasonable force, just 1 strong Korps covering the main beaches and choke points. If he does come this way we can slow him sufficiently until the cavalry arrives. But QBall rightly values the power of flight and I don't think he will risk landing outside cover as seen last year where if he was reckless he would have taken a shot at Rome before he could be sure Sardinia would be ready in time.

Thats it really, everything taking shape and every man and dog are dug in and on alert. All we need now is somebody to shoot at.

[image]local://upfiles/43317/3497E7935913435993854012C2221CCB.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/5/2017 2:04:52 PM)

Good summary but I'd discount Denmark. There have been a few Allied disasters there (one was mine) and I think the port/rail layout makes it at best a dead end and at worst a death trap?



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/5/2017 3:18:34 PM)

I'd tend to agree, from every AAR I've seen this tried then yes its proved to be a cul de sac. But I don't want this to be remembered as that AAR where QBall pulled off the 'Reverse Viking' gambit and was in Berlin by July... :) So, I've got 4 divisions there, generating a share towards VPs for slight over garrison and available to draw down as a strategic reserve of fresh troops once QBall plays his hand. If I had a massive gap in the line anywhere then I'd release them already but even 19th Army down south is relatively well dug in with a regiment on every beach and the ports fortified to 4. The only weak spot is SW France (run WMBf.France HQ) which is just marginally above garrison and more of an occupying army on partisan duty than a battle formation. Much of those are security troops ready to protect the lines of communication if/when the French revolt and is a place where tardy skill 3 & 4 generals get posted to sip wine outside cafes and (we hope) get bumped off by Marquis drive-bys with sten guns. If he lands in the SW we will welcome that move of course but I very highly doubt it for a multitude of reasons.



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/6/2017 9:04:11 AM)

Turn 41 - 8 April '44

I'll chalk today up as a rare victory over the skies which should cause QBall to at least consider for a minute dialing back a bit. He had been running rampant over Germany as usual but also switched some of Bomber command to day missions over France bombing ports and railyards west of Paris, and tactical bombers east and north-east of Paris. We had been marshalling our forces to try to catch him off guard and this was a relative success. 150 Fw190s operate from west of Paris, 300 Bf109s south of Paris and another 150 Fw190 east of Paris, with the 2 Fw190 hunter groups interlocking with the Bf109s. Over Nantes and Remmes they run havoc with unescorted groups of 50 Halifax & Lancasters taking down in some cases 22 of the 50 for no loss. Its a turkey shoot here and I think he loses at least 87 for the loss of just 2 Bf109s. East of Paris against the tactical bombers its less one sided as at least some are escorted by Spitfires, but still we get a healthy tally. In total with the intercepts we focus over Vienna and Pommerania we get 212 bombers and 126 others for 'just' 84 pilots. Not sustainable every week, but every other week maybe just about, and almost certainly he will have to reign in bomber command and only hit targets escorted. He has plenty of fighters but the Mustangs can't run AS in force everywhere so I think we are playing hide and seek here and this time we got lucky.
Of course this is isolated success and the overall trend is still sliding to oblivion but small victories can be milked in our radio broadcasts.

[image]local://upfiles/43317/F717973626A54B00A4E59C7B5B90D5F2.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/6/2017 11:06:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Gunnulf

Turn 41 - 8 April '44

I'll chalk today up as a rare victory over the skies ...
Of course this is isolated success and the overall trend is still sliding to oblivion but small victories can be milked in our radio broadcasts.


Agree, I still have a warm fuzzy glow after catching out my last opponent when he was a bit casual at bombing S Germany and I'd redeployed most of day fighters to the region. Didn't see much of 15 Air for some time after that.



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/6/2017 12:17:34 PM)

I maybe should have been a bit less impatient and done this ambush very close to the expected invasion time to force him to switch at a more critical time. As it is no doubt we will just see spitfires on escort, maybe some Mustang AS. But a little yes railyard damage for relatively few loses is as good as I could expect. Other good news is there are plenty of Fw190s in the pools. Maybe one for every pilot before long..! Ok, maybe our pilot losses aren't quite that bad yet :)

Rest of the turn is just jockeying reserves about a bit. 9 Pz & 116 Pz arrive and go to Berlin to refit before joining Von Schweppenbergs (8-7) in Pas de Calais. LXXVI Pz (Herr - 7-7) with 2 Pz & Pz Lehr is in Normandy & Brittany, while I SS Pz (Dietrich 6-6) has 2 SS Pz 12 SS Pz 17 SS PzGN & 21 Pz in Picardy. Dietrich could be better and we really should switch this Korps HQ for XIV Pz Korps from Italy. Anyway this gives us 8 mechanised division in the north, another will join from Italy very soon and if the invasion doesn't come early then 1 SS Pz & 11 Pz are packing up and moving to the railheads in Russia for a total of 11.
I'll keep 6 Mech divisions in Italy for the moment but might draw down more in May. Its not likely he will launch an invasion anytime soon but it would be prudent to not be too careless, worst case if the fighting remains light then they are a potential strategic reserve for the future.



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/6/2017 4:40:36 PM)

Turn 42 - April '44

More action over France though the action shifts to the skies over Paris and looks like the unescorted Lancasters are dialled back. We still manage to down about 200 4E & 2E bombers, less one sided but acceptable losses. Heavy rain forecast over the channel so not likely we'll see an invasion just yet. I have a stronger hunch where the blow will fall now, but of course he could be (should be) weaving an element of deception in, and there is still time to wait. But I've a mind to replace the Korps commander where we think he is heading. Already a 6 Inf trait but it wouldn't hurt if he were a 7 with good initiative and morale. First we need to pick a new 5 Pz Army commander next turn, then make that switch. Its tempting to throw a couple of forts up behind the coast but I'm not sure there will be time to get them to level 3. Oh for a few more APs...

In other news 5 Fallshirmjager arrives and along with 4 Fallshirmjager we start to plot the invasion of the Isle of Man. The key will be to get the port quickly, but to be honest we've not thought too far past that point yet.



[image]local://upfiles/43317/4CABDF6B62274EF1AFFB543CC63D01C5.jpg[/image]



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/6/2017 8:18:35 PM)

Turn 43 - 22 Apr '44

And its all goes quiet... Air activity almost dries up over France and Germany for the first time in relatively good weather. Maybe we its all over and we won?! We lived through it! The second world war - 1939 to 1944! Finally the Allies see sense but we will offer fairly strict terms. A return of Tanzania and Namibia for starters.

So Bomber command doesn't fly by day or night. 8th & 15th Air force hardly anything, except a few some bombing around Vienna. Otherwise just recce around Rome and a little in France. So its either my above theory about surrender or a pause before the big show.
But then we look a bit closer and actually while its only light rain over the continent then its heavy rain over all of England. The only attacks are coming out of Italy. That maybe makes more sense... The forecast for next week is more of the same so I think we can safely stand down and enjoy the French wine a little longer. Except maybe Jagd 1 in Romania, that seems like a bit too obvious a target thats really not received much attention at all so far...

[image]local://upfiles/43317/A94DC7704F7A41D9BD7577CF1FC758D0.jpg[/image]



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/7/2017 6:26:19 PM)

Turn 45 - 6 May 44

Another day, another bombing. Qball has now moved his P51s over France to respond to our Fw190 preditations. Aside from the first 2 weeks his AS fishing trips over Germany produced nothing so was expecting this. Ploetesi is under its 2nd week of attack by 15 AF. Nothing disastrous yet but damage being done. We have a couple of Italian groups in Mostar trying to strip off some of the escorts drop tanks but not sure how big an impact that's having. Probably a valid job for a couple of German units instead.

However the big story is the invasion alert goes to amber as the forecast for next week is clear skies over France for the first time. Still light mud on the ground and the weather could flip back of course but will he risk it? I'm almost certain he is ready, but the railways are in decent shape, and light mud is an unnecessary risk. It's not impossible though, he might weigh this up against an extra month march on Berlin, or the risk that early June is a washout. I don't think so but I've been wrong before....

We are about 98% as ready as we are likely to be. 1ss Pz and 11pz arrive from Russia and 3 PzGn is on route from Italy. Steiner (7-7) takes command of 5 Pz Army which now has its full compliment of 9 Pz & 3 PzGn divisions plus some infantry. That's about as good as it's going to get until II SS Pz Korps gets back from it's Russian adventure. It's now all about whether we guessed right. If we didn't its not a major drama I think. But we'll soon find out!



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/8/2017 3:13:41 PM)

Interesting AAR, thanks.
I dont have WITW, so I have to ask: Is it actually possible to paradrop units on the isle of men in 1944? Quite funny if this is the case.



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/8/2017 5:25:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Interesting AAR, thanks.
I dont have WITW, so I have to ask: Is it actually possible to paradrop units on the isle of men in 1944? Quite funny if this is the case.


Its in range of airbases at Cherbourg and some, but not all, the Fallshirmjager divisions retain a parachute capability so technically its possible if you opponent happens to not be bothering with interceptors. I don't think I'll test this in this particular game though but when you get the game let us know how you get on!




Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/8/2017 6:18:14 PM)

Turn 47 - 20 May '44 or, as it will be taught for years to come - D-Day!

And the verdict is.... Brittany, and in particular St Malo. 10 divisions land from 5 TFs so clearly he left Italy quite early to get fully prepped and still land ahead of historical. Also all 4 airborne divisions drop. So this is D-Day on steroids and the defenders on the beach don't stand a chance. No Omaha beach moment here. As earlier we had a strong feeling he would go for the soft option and damn the weather to get a few weeks extra marching in. It was also the one region he seemed to completely ignore recon on. That said Brittany is the most difficult one to justify heavily stacking the beaches, and I recently had to strongly consider that he would still go for the short route to Picardy and you'll see when I post the state of the defenses at H-Hour that this was the weakest. I thought on balance it probably the most likely but unfortunately it was the one I could afford least to be wrong about really and so couldn’t justify loading it up with troops at the expense of elsewhere.

Anyway, for the history books here is the state of the defences on this day:

Brittany is held by Dollman, who is still our weakest Army commander. 2 weeks and I might have had the points to replace him but 5 Pz was the priority. He has smashed into LXXXIV Korps which is basically 352 Inf and 84 Inf, the latter which was routed, and 1/346 Regt. Elsewhere there is LXXXVI Corps (rest of 346 Inf, 77 Inf & 272 divs) on the north coast. Actually I thought he might pick this stretch as being away from counterattacks, but I can also see likely he chose St Malo as being in a better position to avoid being bottled up in the peninsula. The south coast is very lightly held by just 91 Airlanding under II Fallshirm Korps which also has responsibility for the port garrisons (bolstered by a regiment from 344 Inf each). Finally of note is Pz Lehr in Rennes, very close to the beaches and 3 PzGn 2 hexes away next to Avranches, both under LXXVI Pz Korps with the rest of the Korps at Caen (2 Pz) and Le Havre (21 Pz) but its the former two i need to consider how to employ first. To be honest given the strength of 14 divisions showing up and steamrolling the beaches there is not a lot I can do in the first turn I think. This is not a precarious landing in the slightest, which is a bit disapointing. I was hoping that at least one landing this game might have a Salerno or Anzio moment but I kinda knew QBall would know how to leave nothing to chance here.

From the screenshot you'll also see the dispositions of the 2 Infantry Korps from 1 Army; VXII around Caen & XXV around Cherbourg. Here the terrain justified a bit more investment in defense in depth with 3 forts behind the beaches at key points. We'll never know if it would have made a difference but probably not against these numbers. You'll see from the graphic the worst defense which generated odds of 1268:1 and only 64 casualties this was a cake walk of the highest order. Even there had been a full division it would have crumbled. I do feel like it’s a shame that the typical beach defense level that’s possible of 2 is the same that can be reached in a couple of weeks of digging. It does feel like more should be possible without 4 Aps which clearly there are not enough of them to cover more than a few key points.


[image]local://upfiles/43317/D08F02110F554E869B4398440CBD1473.jpg[/image]



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/8/2017 6:44:09 PM)

The best performing beach defense is 1/346 Regt's sector which at least extracts a battalion worth of casualties before they are pushed back. Its all relative though. Even my wildest plans for this sector would not have cut it.

You'll see further up the coast in Picardy we at least could justify a regiment in depth, in some cases a parachute regiment. And 2 Pz Korps not too far away. I was planning to bring them closer still on the sign of perfect weather but QBall has jumped the gun a little with rain forecast so likely they would not have moved yet. Part of me is a bit disappointed not to find out if this sector could have contested this a bit better but we'll not know in this game. We already know troops can come ashore against no opposition but I'd like to see a hot landing.

So the question is what next? The interdiction over the landings and to the south is quite intense, but very light to the east. Also the rail network is virtually intact so we can get reserves to the area fairly quickly for the moment at least. I've seen folks in some AARs pre-prepare the line at the neck of Brittany to more easily box in the invasion but for me this seemed a bit unrealistic so disregarded this strategy. We'll see if its possible to do on the fly, but he has picked his landing site well to make this difficult.
I'll try and deny him the ports for a while but again where he has landed makes this difficult to commit to without risking getting cut off quite quickly. The terrain doesn't lend itself to a tight historical bocage scrap, and I suspect we need to play the long game of a relatively fluid series of defensive actions.
I also need to mull over the idea of whether we can gain a little time and distraction from using the Luftwaffe to utilise the relatively tight Gulf of St Malo. That might at best slow supplies by a small fraction though I think.

[image]local://upfiles/43317/49A7815D001041CA93D1C3DC4F48340A.jpg[/image]



loki100 -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/8/2017 7:03:15 PM)

I'd hold the Luftwaffe back - my guess is that as of now he is at max airstrength, let him run that down a bit with losses and damaged planes before you commit your last resource?

all in all its an interesting variant, not quite Brittany (he is relatively to the west) but not Normandy. So he has no immediate big ports but I presume is gambling you'll pull out of the Contentin peninsula if he starts to progress towards Paris?



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/8/2017 7:32:28 PM)

Yes, he'll have 5 air bases in quick order which nullifies any problems with Brittany being outside spitfire range pretty instantly. But I run the idea through my brain briefly at least before I discount it. There is still time for the bombers to make more of a distance down south.

Regards the spot, I must admit I thought more likely he would hit the north west shore if he came here, but I can see the advantages. Its tough to justify a strong line to stop him expanding west as there isn't much of a defense line and any that try will be cut off. I think I will load up the ports so they hold out a while at least and force him to use a strong force here to reduce them. Otherwise I'll have to fight to his east for a while at least at try for a timetable of withdrawal that keeps us short of the German border before winter at least. Time will tell if thats possible, but I have to try to make his logistics problems greater. That said it seems likely he'll have Brest earlier than historically Cherbourg fell as a parallel. And when he does set up his Mulberries (wait, how do I know about these...?) then they are really not that much further west than Arromanches in the grand scheme of things...

This is what the interdiction looks like. Pretty heavy in the south but not much in Normandy so I can conceivably beat him to the edge of the bocage and hold this for a while. The natural neck of Brittany doesn't seem like much of a plan though, as we'll be in rubbish state by the time we reach that river line then be out in the open pretty much so thats a non-starter really. There is maybe a chance to hold him for a little while before he is really ashore and established in a 3 sided box on the bocage to the north, Mayenne west and Loire south. But not for long without losses and probably only while he is still busy taking the ports. Its a bit of time maybe but its not an enviable position and not one we would usually chose. I don't fancy the chances of the divisions west of the landing getting out so we'll plan to sell them dearly but write them off I think.

[image]local://upfiles/43317/19AAAC54C41949DFBDEAA4283C0A677A.jpg[/image]



Gunnulf -> RE: Panzers, rückwärts! Gunnulf (GHC) vs QBall (WA) (1/9/2017 3:50:23 PM)

The response.

Still a few bits and pieces to fiddle with before I send back the turn but here out west is pretty much done. After a bit of a think we decided that any forces west of the beachhead will only be slowing him down marginally more than he will march unimpeded and there is not enough space to fit everybody in the Brest alamo so that corps will be best placed slowing him marginally in the south and at least a few troops will likely get out, or at least have more of a stalling effect. We'll see. That leaves 2 static regiments each to man the Festungs Brest, Lorient and St Nazaire. They will fall of course but at least they start with 6CV and fortification 4 so will take a little resources from him.

LXXVI Pz Korps deploys a brief holding position to the east of the beachhead, mostly to cover Pz Lehr leaving Rennes. We launch the only counterattack of the week with Pz Lehr and 3 PzGn against the 6th Airborne. No hope of success obviously as they have landed in light woods and turns out they have a US Regiment attached. But we felt thats its the correct and in character German thing to do. They hold with very light casualties as predicted, though I did hope we might extract a little more damage. Neither German division had to go far so interdiction wasn't an issue, and no ground attack flew. There is not much else we could do but glad we tried something. But anyway in fact along with the Poles attached to 101 Airborne there are actually nearly 5 airborne divisions along with the 10 infantry divisions in the first wave. I mentioned to Qball and I'll repeat the thoughts here I do still feel its a bit of a missed opportunity that the game mechanics don't do anything to restrict the Allies to always doubling up their first wave divisions, other than a little more time taken to prepare. But did that every really stop anybody? Its the same in some ways as the lack of restrictions on shifting all of 21 AG to the Med for a while. Why not? its free and the rational thing to do. Likewise why take 1 division when you can take 2? Trouble is it really means unless the allies really do something stupid there is no chance of an Omaha moment, and likewise with 2 intact divisions on each beach why would any rational German player even attempt a counter-attack? I would have liked to at least try a little to make a fight of it but tickling this airborne division is about all I can justify trying really, just to do something offensive rather than just be setting up a line 100 miles back. If the prepping of an invasion cost APs or even better VPs to set up, per airborne division dropped and per division landed per TF then the Allies would have to at least think for a minute about whether everything was necessary. And would go a little way to countering invasion spam. Interesting choices make for interesting games, but right now feels like the only thing for the allies is to go as big as they can possible stretch the system and the knock on effect is a lack of counter-attacks on day 1. Anyway, thats my 2p on that one. The follow up forces will arrive on his phase and the moment will have passed obviously.

Elsewhere 1st Army starts to occupy the bocage line to the north, 5 Pz Army starts to occupy the east river line, though this will be temporary I think, and the rump of 7th Army with a few units from the SW start to occupy the Loire line. All temporary but thats all we can do right now I think. Then in reserve 15th Army deploys along the Seine while keeping a static defense on the coast against fresh invasions. Likewise 1 Fallshirm army in the low countries draws down a little but keeps the beaches manned.

All the rest left to do is air stuff, reordering depots states etc...


[image]local://upfiles/43317/FCB3A68D0E194BDAABD84965CC7D83E2.jpg[/image]



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