Southern Strategy (Full Version)

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SheperdN7 -> Southern Strategy (12/19/2016 6:02:44 AM)

I was thinking of starting a new campaign against the Ai, playing as Axis and I was looking over the map for planning and I realized that never once had I ever gone for the Caucasus and the massive amounts of fuel and oil there because it never really occurred to me that I would ever have to fight a long term war of attrition against the SU. So I have to ask- is the oil and fuel down there even worth it for the Axis?




heliodorus04 -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/19/2016 12:14:52 PM)

It is not.
Germany can never acquire resources in WitE beyond those captured on airbase units and HQs.
Strategic resources of the Soviet won't help Germany's war effort, and taking them doesn't harm the Soviet's resource accumulation (most of it is off-board in the Urals and Siberia anyway).




Telemecus -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/19/2016 4:19:41 PM)

It could still be very useful strategically though. It is a great way to pocket soviet units against the Black sea and neutrals then watch them auto surrender en masse. It also means you can shorten your front starting from Astrakan in time for winter.

In real life the Caucasus oil battalion which the Axis formed to repair the oil facilities reported back from Maikop and Grozny that their equipment could be put to better use in Romania or Vienna. They eventually got almost nothing before they had to withdraw.




SheperdN7 -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/20/2016 2:53:55 AM)

That's a little disappointing but nonetheless I do see the potential of trapping a lot of Red Army units down there.




GabrielBora -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/21/2016 10:35:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

It could still be very useful strategically though. It is a great way to pocket soviet units against the Black sea and neutrals then watch them auto surrender en masse. It also means you can shorten your front starting from Astrakan in time for winter.

In real life the Caucasus oil battalion which the Axis formed to repair the oil facilities reported back from Maikop and Grozny that their equipment could be put to better use in Romania or Vienna. They eventually got almost nothing before they had to withdraw.


Maybe against the AI.

Against a human oponent, you might end up with a unwanted flank from the black sea to the caspian .




Telemecus -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/21/2016 2:32:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GabrielBora
Maybe against the AI.

Against a human oponent, you might end up with a unwanted flank from the black sea to the caspian[Azov] .


Historically remembered as the disaster after Stalingrad 🙂




TheOne -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/25/2016 10:31:59 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: SheperdN7

I was thinking of starting a new campaign against the Ai, playing as Axis and I was looking over the map for planning and I
realized that never once had I ever gone for the Caucasus and the massive amounts of fuel and oil there because it never
really occurred to me that I would ever have to fight a long term war of attrition against the SU. So I have to ask- is
the oil and fuel down there even worth it for the Axis?


I would be looking more at the manpower centers, as long as you are good Oka north.
You will be able to out maneuver the AI and most peeps as the front gets longer at least in 42.
Several current AAR's support the Southern Strategy, but for different reasons.





GabrielBora -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/27/2016 9:18:32 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus


quote:

ORIGINAL: GabrielBora
Maybe against the AI.

Against a human oponent, you might end up with a unwanted flank from the black sea to the caspian[Azov] .


Historically remembered as the disaster after Stalingrad 🙂


Even against the AI , I am not confident in succes at least in the opening stages of the battle. The luftwafe will fly fuel and supplies and a rapid advance to the Terek river is posible but the outcome of the battle around the capital of Dagestan will win or doom the campaign.




Telemecus -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/27/2016 3:29:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GabrielBora


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus


quote:

ORIGINAL: GabrielBora
Maybe against the AI.

Against a human oponent, you might end up with a unwanted flank from the black sea to the caspian[Azov] .


Historically remembered as the disaster after Stalingrad 🙂


Even against the AI , I am not confident in succes at least in the opening stages of the battle. The luftwafe will fly fuel and supplies and a rapid advance to the Terek river is posible but the outcome of the battle around the capital of Dagestan will win or doom the campaign.



Very apt! In my current game I am at the Caspian 5 hexes f rom Makhachkala. But it is April 42 against the AI on normal. I am intending to go around rather than through it after the mud. My lines are getting very stretched, but many Soviets are a very long way from rail supply in the western mountains. But I will have to report back on it - hopefully with a win rather than doom.

One thing that made a huge difference was capturing Black sea ports in the Caucasus. Suddenly a very long supply route back to the rail in the Ukraine became very short at the western end indeed. But this supply takes longer to come up in the latest versions.




Zorch -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/27/2016 5:49:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

It is not.
Germany can never acquire resources in WitE beyond those captured on airbase units and HQs.
Strategic resources of the Soviet won't help Germany's war effort, and taking them doesn't harm the Soviet's resource accumulation (most of it is off-board in the Urals and Siberia anyway).

Perhaps in the future 'GGs War in Europe' will make capturing Soviet resources a viable strategy.




Telemecus -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/27/2016 6:02:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Perhaps in the future 'GGs War in Europe' will make capturing Soviet resources a viable strategy.


Perhaps in the future 'GGs War in World' the Japanese can take the Siberian resources. [:)]




No idea -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/27/2016 8:54:34 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: heliodorus04

Strategic resources of the Soviet won't help Germany's war effort, and taking them doesn't harm the Soviet's resource accumulation (most of it is off-board in the Urals and Siberia anyway).


WhIch is rather absurd. The whole point of the 1942 german campaigns was getting the oilfields. Crude was always the weak spot of german war machine.

Even if they had been sabotaged and it had taken the germans many months before getting them back into production the soviet union produced a good part of its crude there. Their loss would have hampered the soviet war effort considerably unless the USA had diverted more shipping towards lend lease or had used more lend lease shipping to take crude to the SU (instead of other important war materials)

Ps. Not to talk about the Nikopol manganese and the Donets basin and its lignite coal.




GeneralfeldmarschallWalterModel -> RE: Southern Strategy (12/28/2016 1:27:33 AM)

Flaviusx

If you kill enough stuff in 1942, the Red Army will collapse, or be so crippled as to not ever be able to reach Berlin in time, giving the German player a win on points. It's been done in many AARs. And reductions in manpower and industry in 1941 help create the conditions for said collapse.





Zorch -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/1/2017 4:24:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

Perhaps in the future 'GGs War in Europe' will make capturing Soviet resources a viable strategy.


Perhaps in the future 'GGs War in World' the Japanese can take the Siberian resources. [:)]


+100 [:)]
One can dream, right?




EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/1/2017 5:43:52 PM)

I would prefer to use them to capture the vehicle factories in Detroit, it was already discussed in a thread I think.




Telemecus -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/1/2017 5:59:03 PM)

So with the Axis holding Europe and Japan holding Detroit and Siberia time for GGs World War III Axis versus Japanese empire!

I am sure this has been discussed\done elsewhere?




EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/1/2017 7:05:39 PM)

Nice Idea. Planned release date: 2030.




Zorch -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/1/2017 8:14:44 PM)

[:D] AKA 'The Man in the High Castle', once a novel, now a TV series.




TheOne -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/4/2017 8:49:51 AM)

Phase 1 Strategic Objectives before the 1941 Campaign begins.

The key is to push hard enough so that you will have the chance to over run enough industry to slow down the building of Red Army 2.0. As a German player if you can get the Russian player under these numbers it is a win 90% of the time with 10% draws in that mix.

HVY: 236 Need to get under: 200 or destroy 36+
AP: 370 Need to get under: 300 or destroy 70+

Looking at the map below remember that the Soviet choke point is manpower, not industry. Industry will slow the building of Russian Army, but manpower production is the choke point. There is far more manpower centers south of the Oka then north of the Oka. Come 42 manpower centers and pocketing units are the main objective in 42.

Also truck destruction is very important by 43, so the more units you can pocket and the more mobile Russian units you can route the slower The Red Armies march west will be.

Phase 6 Strategic Objectives before the 1942 Campaign begins.


If you kill enough stuff in 1942, the Red Army will collapse, or be so crippled as to not ever be able to reach Berlin in time, giving the German player a win on points. It's been done in several AARs. And reductions in manpower and industry in 1941 help create the conditions for said collapse.

Then it is a question of getting ahead of the Soviet replacement curve. A Soviet player taking in 100k manpower a turn (about what he'll get after a very strong German 41) has some real limits to content with.

The Soviet choke point is manpower, not industry.

If you had a respectable 41 Leningrad is yours and you hold a line from Kaluga, Orel, Kursk, Kharkov to Stalino. If you took Moscow the game is over already ƒº, but in most cases vs a good Russian player that should never happen. The numbers are basicly 100,000 men per turn for Russia at this point, if you can roll over most of the deep southern manpower centers that number drops below 70,000. So your basicly ¡§killing¡¨ 30,000 men per turn in 42, then in 43 the number drops off even more as the *¡¦s are as follows Man Power: 2664 42/50 43/35 44/30 45/15 so by 43 the 70k drops to 50,000 this is HUGE. So at this point your far ahead of the curve and a solid Russian offensive will not start until 1944 and the front is a 1000+ miles from Berlin, game set match.

You should have Oka north under AGN and have 16th,18th, 9th and 2nd Army holding this area. 3rd PG is Storm Trooper Army used to crack and enemy line or can be used to clear a tough area south of the Oka.

So north of the Oka your lines should be along rivers with 1 or 2 divisions in the front line and a regiment in 2nd and a FZ in the 3rd. This area generally holds until summer 44

All Infantry should be set on ready and 93% ToE and mobile units on refit and 93%.

So below the Oka and east of the front lines area 100¡¦s of manpower centers withen easy
reach which are not listed on the map.


[image]local://upfiles/55297/AFE100F80BCF4BAFB96B96E5D32EB75E.jpg[/image]




EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/4/2017 11:26:32 AM)

Good overview thanks.




GabrielBora -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/4/2017 11:26:59 AM)

Manpower is a non isuee, by 1942 any good soviet player has a 8 milion to 4 million advantage in manpower .

Actually even artificialy reducing the soviet rifle strenght by 10 % TOE each year ( 90% in 1942 ,80% IN 1943, 70% IN 1944 AND 60% IN 45 , you barely get historical frontline strenghts ).

You only need 40,000 recruits per turn to cover normal frontline atrition, because combat losses would hurt the germans far worse .







swkuh -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/4/2017 4:16:52 PM)

@theOne: KUDOS your elegant presentation; 4 main attack lines speaks for 4 AGs. Building late turns defense lines w/FZs will take many AdmPts, though.

Can you refer an AAR that demonstrates your approach?




TheOne -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/7/2017 1:39:41 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GabrielBora

Manpower is a non isuee, by 1942 any good soviet player has a 8 milion to 4 million advantage in manpower .

Actually even artificialy reducing the soviet rifle strenght by 10 % TOE each year ( 90% in 1942 ,80% IN 1943, 70% IN 1944 AND 60% IN 45 , you barely get historical frontline strenghts ).

You only need 40,000 recruits per turn to cover normal frontline atrition, because combat losses would hurt the germans far worse .






You need to read this ARR

http://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4148240&mpage=11

ORIGINAL: Stelteck

The cost of having units destroyed is huge as i have to find manpower to fill them, then retrain them from nearly zero which take a long time.My manpower production is only 70K men per turn. With people returning from hospital, 100K per turn. I'am lacking men everywhere.
(But i'am swimming in armement currently). Not enough men despite looses below historical at this point, too much weapons. i'am not sûre i'am leading the soviet union currently [:'(])

if you take the time to read some of the AAR's it is clear manpower is one of several issue that get the Russian Army far behind the curve.
Stelteck's manpower issue will be worse Jan 43.He will be stuck in the 7-8 million range and only able to do a few dozen attacks per turn because attrition and combat losses effect both sides not just one.

BrianG V Sillyflower AAR shows the same issue.
At some point morale flips the CV by -20 for Germany and The USSR +20 and things start moving West.
As Germany your slowing the building of The Red Steam Roller to the point it is way behind the curve.

There are dozens of other AAR's that show this and simply understanding the ruleset.






TheOne -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/7/2017 1:52:43 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: rrbill

@theOne: KUDOS your elegant presentation; 4 main attack lines speaks for 4 AGs. Building late turns defense lines w/FZs will take many AdmPts, though.

Can you refer an AAR that demonstrates your approach?


There are allot of AAR's showing this appoarch.

Its really only 2 lines of attack.

1. Leningrad first then Moscow.
2. Southern drive for industry.

You have to have a solid turn 1 there are several posted.

Phase 1: Turns 2 -7 the Land Grab and Industry Destruction - You need to know how logistics work if you don't have a great turn 1-7 the game is over.
Everything going forward is all about turns 1-7. Russia can have a horrible turn 1-7 and recover, Germany can not.

Phase 2: Turns 8-17 Destruction of the Red Army + more land in the south.

Phase 3: Turns 18-24 Prepairing for the Blizzard

Phase 4: Turns 25-37 The Blizzard

Phase 5 Turns 38-53 Spring 1942

Phase 6 1942 Offensive.

Phase 7 Defending 43-45





swkuh -> RE: Southern Strategy (1/7/2017 8:55:07 AM)

Thank you.




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