Guadalcanal What If... (Full Version)

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John 3rd -> Guadalcanal What If... (4/13/2017 4:16:01 PM)

We may have just hit on an idea over in the General Forum.

I am actively thinking of creating a Guadalcanal Scenario adding CV Hiryu and Adm Yamaguchi into it. The idea comes from Shattered Sword where Yamaguchi could have extricated his ship (and himself) after launching the second attack on Yorktown.

Who has the best Guadalcanal Mod presently and could I take it and then add this element?



AlessandroD -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/13/2017 5:44:47 PM)

I guess the DaBabes one, more historical and with a bigger map.



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/14/2017 10:01:14 AM)

DaBabes is an excellent candidate.

Brian: Do you have a Guadalcanal Scenario?



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/15/2017 3:23:02 AM)

OK. I am going to make this simple Mod using Brian's Guadalcanal Scenario.

Here are my questions:
1. Remaining Japanese Carriers: Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiryu, Junyo, Hiyo, Ryujo, and Zuiho. How would YOU re-organize these ships into CARDIVs? I have my own opinion but am curious as to yours and why you would do it that way.

2. Adm Yamaguchi Tamon survives so you have him and Nagumo. Which ships to you give to whom and WHY?

Have some fun and lets see what people think.



Buckrock -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/15/2017 8:40:17 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
1. Remaining Japanese Carriers: Shokaku, Zuikaku, Hiryu, Junyo, Hiyo, Ryujo, and Zuiho. How would YOU re-organize these ships into CARDIVs? I have my own opinion but am curious as to yours and why you would do it that way.


Perhaps it might be better if you detailed the arrival schedule for these carriers in the modified scenario. For example, if the Hiryu is available to
arrive with Shokaku and Zuikaku at Truk in mid-Aug, would the Ryujo still arrive with them or would she now remain with her historical CarDiv2
stablemates Junyo and Hiyo as they continue divisional training in the Inland Sea during August and September.



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/15/2017 1:47:40 PM)

I am thinking something along those lines. CARDIV1 becomes Sho, Zui, and Hiryu under Yamaguchi. They arrive together. CARDIV2 is Junyo, Hiyo, Ryujo with Nagumo. Should Zuiho be with one or the other?



Buckrock -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/15/2017 3:22:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: John 3rd
Should Zuiho be with one or the other?

In real life, Zuiho would likely then have become an independent "floater", switching between ferrying aircraft to bases and providing air cover
during major operations to one of the separate surface action groups the Japanese liked creating for the occasion. At least until one of the other
six CVs were lost.

But since AE players would normally put her with other carriers for battle, I think Zuiho could either go in to CarDiv1 (her historical "official"
division, post-Midway) or be lumped in with the deplorables of CarDiv2, most of which arrive post-August like the Zuiho does. Either works.

What numbers of aircraft are you planning to have on Hiryu? Bombers particularly appeared to be in short supply at this time and IIRC, Hiryu only
had about 12 D3A/B5Ns left at Midway just before she went down that would have been flyable or repairable had she survived for later service.



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/15/2017 5:04:24 PM)

She could start with a full complement of ZEROS and then we'd have to look at it. The CV is rated at 69 so perhaps we could look at an under-strength start of 27F, 15DB and 15TB.



wdolson -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/16/2017 11:09:15 AM)

If the Hiryu had withdrawn instead of going after the American carriers most of the air group would have been intact. The air group got shredded attacking the Yorktown.

Bill



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/16/2017 2:30:20 PM)

Thanks Sir but I am postulating that Yamaguchi launches his second strike that turns Hiryu about and RUNS FOR THE HILLS. Thus, Tomonaga is killed and his Daitai scredded.



FlyByKnight -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/16/2017 9:35:57 PM)

So this would be like a "Haikou ichiu" version of the Guadalcanal scenario, with extra bits for Japan, or just Hiryuu?



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/16/2017 10:23:33 PM)

Just the one ship and its Admiral.



ny59giants -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/16/2017 11:48:11 PM)

With the Americans unsure of the Hiryu still surviving and where she went, would they have proceeded west and gotten to the 4 cruisers? So Mogami and Mikuma are available later for G'canal??



Buckrock -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/17/2017 8:15:49 AM)

Actually, meddling with the timeline might well end up with both the Mogami and Mikuma being sunk. It was the sighting of the burning Hiryu to the NW on
the 5th that drew TF 16's attention away from the reports of "two capital ships" to the west of Midway. TF 16's strikes ended up missing the Hiryu anyway
as she sank before they arrived.

Had Hiryu fled the field on the afternoon of the 4th, she should have been well clear of the area by the 5th and there would have been little to distract
TF 16 from beginning their strikes on the two sighted "capital ships", starting on the 5th June and continuing on the 6th if required.

Then of course the question could arise as to whether Hiryu's arrival at the Main Body might be enough for Yamamoto to order Hiryu and Zuiho to sweep
south during the night of the 5/6th in the hope that even with their minimal air strength, they might catch out TF 16 as it was busy pounding what was
left of the Mogami/Mikuma force.

The timeline could go anywhere.



wdolson -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/17/2017 11:05:52 PM)


Mikuma and Mogami would have fled out of US bomber range if they hadn't collided. If the Hiryu was known to be intact, the US might have been more cautious going after the cruisers even if the Hiryu was long gone.

The best play for Japan was to get the Hiryu out of there and try to save her for future battles. The survival of the Yorktown might have had more impact on the battles around Guadalcanal. She could carry a larger air group than the Hiryu. The Hiryu was a small CV, smaller than the Wasp, but the Yorktown was as capable as any large carrier pre-Essex (the larger size and extra elevator did make the Essexes more capable than the treaty carriers).

Of course another what if would be if the IJN subs had failed to torpedo the Wasp and Saratoga what would have happened. That's two US carriers taken out of the fight without an air battle. The withdrawal of the North Carolina due to torpedo damage also impacted US AA capabilities. By the Battle of Santa Cruz US flak was getting brutal and the fast BBs were proving capable of being giant flak batteries.

Bill



John 3rd -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/17/2017 11:45:57 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Buckrock

Actually, meddling with the timeline might well end up with both the Mogami and Mikuma being sunk. It was the sighting of the burning Hiryu to the NW on
the 5th that drew TF 16's attention away from the reports of "two capital ships" to the west of Midway. TF 16's strikes ended up missing the Hiryu anyway
as she sank before they arrived.

Had Hiryu fled the field on the afternoon of the 4th, she should have been well clear of the area by the 5th and there would have been little to distract
TF 16 from beginning their strikes on the two sighted "capital ships", starting on the 5th June and continuing on the 6th if required.

Then of course the question could arise as to whether Hiryu's arrival at the Main Body might be enough for Yamamoto to order Hiryu and Zuiho to sweep
south during the night of the 5/6th in the hope that even with their minimal air strength, they might catch out TF 16 as it was busy pounding what was
left of the Mogami/Mikuma force.

The timeline could go anywhere.


I concur with that thought Sir.



oldman45 -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/18/2017 7:51:30 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson

~snip~

Of course another what if would be if the IJN subs had failed to torpedo the Wasp and Saratoga what would have happened. That's two US carriers taken out of the fight without an air battle. The withdrawal of the North Carolina due to torpedo damage also impacted US AA capabilities. By the Battle of Santa Cruz US flak was getting brutal and the fast BBs were proving capable of being giant flak batteries.

Bill


ANother thought would be the Wasp survives the torp hit and joins the fight several months into the campaign.



Buckrock -> RE: Guadalcanal What If... (4/18/2017 11:07:48 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: wdolson
Mikuma and Mogami would have fled out of US bomber range if they hadn't collided.

Completely agree. Had there been no collision, Mogami and Mikuma should have been with Suzuya and Kumano on the 5th June, well outside the
range of any potential US strikes.

quote:


If the Hiryu was known to be intact, the US might have been more cautious going after the cruisers even if the Hiryu was long gone.

Perhaps but Spruance was already operating on the morning of 5th June with the possibility that there may be further IJN CVs around that had not been
sighted on the 4th. He cruised (hidden beneath a low cloud bank) to the east of Midway while awaiting the dawn PBY searches to establish what Japanese
forces were present within 250nm of the atoll.

Once those searches revealed that only one enemy carrier ("on fire") was within the area, Spruance didn't hesitate to go after it. If he was prepared to act
on the Midway searches during the historical 5th June, I suspect he would have also acted on them if, on some hypothetical 5th June, they told him no enemy
carriers remained in the operational area.



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