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GaPete_slith -> You Are The One (5/13/2017 12:20:12 AM)

I have not brought this up because until now, I had wondered if I was really imagining things. I'm also not sure that uploading a zipped game file will show this. I realized today I already have two games zipped and on the board where this has happened so, why not ask? A couple of games ago I started to think that I was encountering an unexplainable number of ones in land combat rolls. I was using the die six charts. In my game before last I attacked Paris 18 times in a game year and rolled a big fat one, every single time. Now I know this is possible, I just find it statistically unlikely and this is not mentioning the fact that the Paris attacks were not the only ones with a high number of one results. The game did not start out doing this but, by the end, I could not seem to get another result. The next game I played, the one zipped and uploaded in the conquest of japan thread, did the same thing. If you look at the game you will notice that Germany did not even conquer Poland in that game. The rolls were so bad, and ones so often, that the entire thing devolved into one big war of attrition that the Germans could not win. The game I started yesterday, I switched charts and I'm getting varied results again. Has anyone else noticed something similar? I'm curious.



4personalbusiness -> RE: You Are The One (5/13/2017 6:23:01 PM)

You rolled a one 18 times in a row? I asked this question some time ago and the answer basically was making a randomizer is so easy that we shouldn't even ask about it. You should read those posts...I can't remember where the thread is but you can find it in the list of my posts in my profile area. Now, to be fair, I've played 2d10 exclusively over the past year and never noticed anything weird. Does 2d10 use the same internal die roller? Who knows? But you're not likely to get any hard evidence here that the internal die roller is reliable. You just have to take it on faith. FlaPete

PS, Other die roll services do publish reports/charts on the accuracy of their die rollers. You can always use one of those if you're a skeptical type who actually likes to see evidence before believing something. [:-]



GaPete_slith -> RE: You Are The One (5/14/2017 6:22:03 AM)

Well it wasn't 18 times in a row, it was 18 attacks by the allies on Paris, in a game year, and every single attack rolled a one. Of course, it wasn't only those attacks. I started to notice that most of the attacks, anywhere, were never rolling higher than a 3, most of the time 1's. This continued in the next game I played. This was in stark contrast to the games before it where it seemed like the Germans could never do any wrong. The game I am playing now, I switched to d10 and so far, I'm getting far more varied results. I also have to note, this was for land combat only, the air and naval rolls, etc, all seemed perfectly random.



TeaLeaf -> RE: You Are The One (5/15/2017 7:10:48 PM)

Just remember (M)WiF is a game where luck has a huge influence.
In a short game luck isn't such a bad thing because it ends soon and then you can play another game. In WiF I find the luck factor a design flaw.
If pure, dumb luck makes it impossible for a player to make any progress and ultimately loose the game, you're looking at 80+ hours of suffering.

I have not seen too many '1's or '2's in my games though...
More of extremely unfair allocation of who gets to roll the ones or the tens when...
Much like: 'always' rolling HIGH during naval search, AVERAGE during air combat and LOW during land combat... Your rolls are statistically averaged out and yet extremely unlucky.



Courtenay -> RE: You Are The One (5/16/2017 1:25:11 AM)

The luck described is so extreme, though, that something seems wrong. A repeated use of the same random number seed? I don't know, but I would check my user settings.



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (5/16/2017 3:40:57 AM)

Back when I was a manager I noticed that people were taking sick days on Mondays and Fridays - an astonishing 40% of the work week!!



GaPete_slith -> RE: You Are The One (5/16/2017 7:09:46 AM)

Tealeaf, I understand statistics and the luck factor and it was one reason why I was so hesitant and waited literally months and months, along with playing two separate solo games, to bring this up. I wanted to see it happen in more than one game. Course the flaw here with the luck factor theory was settled with the last game I played. The Paris example was just an example. The fact was this was going on with all of the rolls, for all sides, using the d6 charts. If you get in a situation where all sides can build a defense that reduces attacks to 3 and 2 to 1 odds, the resulting game is like refighting world war one. If you look at that game I uploaded in the conquest of japan problem thread, you will note that even Poland survived the war. It was after that game I was sure something was not quite right. What I did not know, still don't, is if this is a problem in the game, my computer, or some combination. The only way to find out is ask questions and see what others have experienced. In this case, the work around for this has been successful. I simply stopped using the d6 charts. What I was also unsure of, was there some modifier at work I didn't know about?

Courtenay, that's a good idea. I'm going to check all of those.



Joseignacio -> RE: You Are The One (5/16/2017 7:48:23 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: 4personalbusiness

You rolled a one 18 times in a row? I asked this question some time ago and the answer basically was making a randomizer is so easy that we shouldn't even ask about it. You should read those posts...I can't remember where the thread is but you can find it in the list of my posts in my profile area. Now, to be fair, I've played 2d10 exclusively over the past year and never noticed anything weird. Does 2d10 use the same internal die roller? Who knows? But you're not likely to get any hard evidence here that the internal die roller is reliable. You just have to take it on faith. FlaPete

PS, Other die roll services do publish reports/charts on the accuracy of their die rollers. You can always use one of those if you're a skeptical type who actually likes to see evidence before believing something. [:-]


I commented that aa well within the last year, after reading Juntoalmar's AAR in his external blog. Of course there could be the bias of remembering (and posting) more often the cases of extreme rolls but, else, the sequence of extreme rolls was serious.

However, I have rolled with physical die for one year in the Med, trying to find the Regia Marina with a CW fleet and from like 20 rolls in one year, finding only once or twice, my results being mostly 8 and upper. While the It player got 1 to 3 results most of the times, allowing him to abort combat or take it with huge advantage at will. the other times we simply didn't find each other.

It's not the only time I hae had such bad luck but was possibly the worst.

So, I can believe in things like that, but 18 "1s" seem "a bit" excessive for me. [:D]



Dabrion -> RE: You Are The One (5/16/2017 2:25:35 PM)

That is how the dice tell you to play a naval strategy ;)



Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: You Are The One (5/20/2017 6:15:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GaPete

I have not brought this up because until now, I had wondered if I was really imagining things. I'm also not sure that uploading a zipped game file will show this. I realized today I already have two games zipped and on the board where this has happened so, why not ask? A couple of games ago I started to think that I was encountering an unexplainable number of ones in land combat rolls. I was using the die six charts. In my game before last I attacked Paris 18 times in a game year and rolled a big fat one, every single time. Now I know this is possible, I just find it statistically unlikely and this is not mentioning the fact that the Paris attacks were not the only ones with a high number of one results. The game did not start out doing this but, by the end, I could not seem to get another result. The next game I played, the one zipped and uploaded in the conquest of japan thread, did the same thing. If you look at the game you will notice that Germany did not even conquer Poland in that game. The rolls were so bad, and ones so often, that the entire thing devolved into one big war of attrition that the Germans could not win. The game I started yesterday, I switched charts and I'm getting varied results again. Has anyone else noticed something similar? I'm curious.

There are no "die 6 charts". Do you mean 1D10? Or are you playing a game other than MWIF?



GaPete_slith -> RE: You Are The One (5/23/2017 8:44:50 PM)

Yeah my bad, the 1 D10.



Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: You Are The One (5/27/2017 7:16:38 PM)

The random number generator is random - that should not be confused with it being 'fair'.

In one of my NetPlay games there was an air battle with one fighter escorting 2 bombers for a ground strike. The defender sent an interceptor and both fighters were shot down on the first round of combat (5 and 2 on the 2 die table). Then the bombers missed all 4 ground strikes (4 and 3 tactical air factors on a clear terrain hex in Fine weather). So the air-to-air combat rolls were low and the ground strike rolls were high.

The missed ground strikes slightly irked me, but c'est la vie.

The next impulse I had 9 unopposed ground strikes: 3 with 5 factors, 2 with 3 factors, 3 with 1 factor, and 1 with 2 factors. All on clear terrain in Fine weather. The first 8 missed![X(] Only the last 20% probability ground strike disorganized a land unit. At the point that the last ground strike worked I was very, very grateful. Those 3 factor ground strikes were to disorganized OOS 7 factor units - success would have reduced them to 1 factor and enabled them to be overrun. Sigh.[8|]



Joseignacio -> RE: You Are The One (5/29/2017 8:27:42 AM)

Steve, everybody knows that rolling a die doesn't mean you get "fair " results.

But rolling a die 18 times 1 or similar has extraordinary low odds. So it's extremely unprobable in a random numbers generator that works properly (with no unintentional, but existing bias for example?)... Can't calculate the odds because the info of GaPete is not complete but may be we are speaking of 1/1.000.000 or even 1/1.000.000.000 that that could happen, if I am understanding it well.



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (5/29/2017 6:55:21 PM)

There was no claim that 18 rolls in a row were '1's. Reading the initial post properly would reveal this.



Courtenay -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 1:18:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

There was no claim that 18 rolls in a row were '1's. Reading the initial post properly would reveal this.

True, he claimed that 18 attacks on Paris produced a 1. The look elsewhere effect does apply, so the odds of this happening were better than 1 in 10^-18. Given the generous assumption that there were 1000 other possible sets of 18 rolls he could pick, the odds were 1 in 10^-15. One in a quadrillion events just don't happen. That is an 8 sigma effect.



Shannon V. OKeets -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 3:36:39 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: GaPete

I have not brought this up because until now, I had wondered if I was really imagining things. I'm also not sure that uploading a zipped game file will show this. I realized today I already have two games zipped and on the board where this has happened so, why not ask? A couple of games ago I started to think that I was encountering an unexplainable number of ones in land combat rolls. I was using the die six charts. In my game before last I attacked Paris 18 times in a game year and rolled a big fat one, every single time. Now I know this is possible, I just find it statistically unlikely and this is not mentioning the fact that the Paris attacks were not the only ones with a high number of one results. The game did not start out doing this but, by the end, I could not seem to get another result. The next game I played, the one zipped and uploaded in the conquest of japan thread, did the same thing. If you look at the game you will notice that Germany did not even conquer Poland in that game. The rolls were so bad, and ones so often, that the entire thing devolved into one big war of attrition that the Germans could not win. The game I started yesterday, I switched charts and I'm getting varied results again. Has anyone else noticed something similar? I'm curious.

How bad were those attacks?

On the 1D10 you subtract 1 from the die roll for each extra major power in the attack (if using the optional rule). You also subtract 1 for each odds level below 1:2. So a 1:5 attack subtracts 3 from the die roll. The program never lets the net die roll go to zero or negative.

Paris has a river on 3 sides, so the attackers might have been halved. Weather can also reduce the odds level, causing reductions in the die roll.

The land combat table resolution form should give summary information about all of those odds modifications.



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 4:42:55 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

There was no claim that 18 rolls in a row were '1's. Reading the initial post properly would reveal this.

True, he claimed that 18 attacks on Paris produced a 1. The look elsewhere effect does apply, so the odds of this happening were better than 1 in 10^-18. Given the generous assumption that there were 1000 other possible sets of 18 rolls he could pick, the odds were 1 in 10^-15. One in a quadrillion events just don't happen. That is an 8 sigma effect.

Let's make some more generous assumptions. 3-hex assaults by 3 units per hex. If you roll a one they'll all be disorganized. How many HQs are needed to re-org and try again? It is very unlikely that 3 attacks can be done every turn for 6 turns given all the weather combinations. With units attacking from less hexes then the low odds and poor weather combinations will yield the subtractions Steve mentions.

I think the hyperbole here is the number 18.



Joseignacio -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 2:16:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

There was no claim that 18 rolls in a row were '1's. Reading the initial post properly would reveal this.


I did. If I hadn't I would not have estimated the probabilities in 1/10^6 to 1/10^9 but would have directly and exactly evaluated them in 1/10^18. [:D]



Joseignacio -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 2:17:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Courtenay


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

There was no claim that 18 rolls in a row were '1's. Reading the initial post properly would reveal this.

True, he claimed that 18 attacks on Paris produced a 1. The look elsewhere effect does apply, so the odds of this happening were better than 1 in 10^-18. Given the generous assumption that there were 1000 other possible sets of 18 rolls he could pick, the odds were 1 in 10^-15. One in a quadrillion events just don't happen. That is an 8 sigma effect.


Sh*t, I could have spared my previous post. Thanks, Courtenay! [:D]



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 3:23:44 PM)

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.



davidachamberlain -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 6:18:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.

The odds still can bite you.

I've had air battles destroying planes on both sizes with extreme low rolls multiple times in a row. Works well for the one with better production.

Dave



TeaLeaf -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 9:18:22 PM)

Humans and statistics mingle badly ;-).
Too often have I heard a human yell at the dice "that is impossible! What are the odds of that!"

Speaking about biting odds; how about Allies loosing 8 FTR out of their 12 total available in one theatre against the axis loosing no air at all.
This happened during exactly 1 phase (4 ground strikes). AtA Odds were divided evenly, from +2/-2 to -2/+2 for both sides over the field.

Also during that game the axis naval searches found 80% of the time from '2' or '3' box and the allied searches only 30% of the time from '3' or '4' boxes.

Only thing the allied dice could manage to do is winning initiative...
Luck to average out is a myth kept alive by the lucky dice rollers ;-).



rkr1958 -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 11:17:46 PM)

Hey, I've a got a joke that's appropriate.

How do you save a statistician from drowning?



rkr1958 -> RE: You Are The One (5/30/2017 11:18:10 PM)

You stop holding his head under water. [:D]



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (5/31/2017 3:07:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: davidachamberlain


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.

The odds still can bite you.

I've had air battles destroying planes on both sizes with extreme low rolls multiple times in a row. Works well for the one with better production.

Dave

The only claim I'm making is the prevention of '1's in ground combat.



brian brian -> RE: You Are The One (5/31/2017 7:24:56 AM)

There can be only one!

But wait, there can be sequels. And then Television series, two. Somehow.



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (5/31/2017 10:40:53 PM)

Yes but the sequels are very seldom any good at all.



Courtenay -> RE: You Are The One (5/31/2017 11:01:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: paulderynck

Maybe the best idea here is to switch to 2D10 and never worry about rolling a 1 for land combat ever again.

[:)]



GaPete_slith -> RE: You Are The One (6/3/2017 11:26:41 PM)

I used the Paris attacks as an example because it illustrated what was going on. It isn't about being fair, the random number generator was not being random for two games in a row. What I wanted to know was there some modifier I missed in the rules or, had anyone else encountered this strange thing. Most rolls were ones and I didn't get a single roll over three, for two games in a row. Didn't matter who was attacking or where. This past game I dropped the single dice and went to the other chart and I'm getting random results again. This is also not the only weird thing that has happened since the last update. In this game, that I am playing now, US Navy carrier planes are changing between turns. It's happened three times, and even with those not currently based on a carrier. I'll have the fleet filled up with aircraft, and when I start the next turn and look back on them, all of the aircraft are older models, and the carriers are not even filled to capacity. Not trying to bitch here guys, looking for information, and possible fixes. At the least, that the next update will fix these problems.



paulderynck -> RE: You Are The One (6/4/2017 5:28:50 AM)

The only way to possibly track down the issue with the CVPs is to provide before and after saved game files.



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