The Battle for Hans Island (no Xen2xen) please move to the AAR section (Full Version)

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palioboy2 -> The Battle for Hans Island (no Xen2xen) please move to the AAR section (6/11/2017 3:35:27 AM)

Hello all, sorry if this has been covered (I am sure it has) but my searches were coming up pretty fruitless.

My question is, what sort of aircraft production (namely fighters but all types would be interesting) has my opponent likely achieved at the start of Sept 1942 as the Japanese.

The intel screen tells me I have shot down (I know these numbers are subject to fog of war)

1100 A6M2's
600 Ki-43c's (plus around 120 a's and b's)
150 Ki-44-IIa
100 A6M3's

Which totals around 2200 fighters, which as of Sept 1 means he is losing around 275 fighters a month. Even if you cut that number in half to say 140 that seems like a lot. Am I doing enough damage to his air arm? What sort of losses can he absorb before he loses effectiveness?

Any info would be very interesting and helpful, thanks!



PaxMondo -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 3:42:39 AM)

In '42 the IJ can build all the fighters she wants. The impact of over building fighters in '42 will not be felt until '45 when he has to fight your P47's with Tojo's ...



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 3:58:40 AM)

Okay, so fighting hard is worth it at this point even though he is totally wearing my fighter force down? I am fighting defensively over Australia so I am not losing to many pilots and I a. developing some very high quality ones.

I have been leaving the higher quality pilots on the front line, since he now has some slightly better fighters to play with I figured I would use my pilots skill levels to help compensate for the fighter qualities.

Is this a good ideal, or should I stash them away for when I have some better crates for them to fly?

Am I creating enough causalities on his side that it should start to effect his pilot quality at all? How many pilots can the IJN and IJA realistically train to a decent standard per month?



Aurorus -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 4:13:53 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Hello all, sorry if this has been covered (I am sure it has) but my searches were coming up pretty fruitless.

My question is, what sort of aircraft production (namely fighters but all types would be interesting) has my opponent likely achieved at the start of Sept 1942 as the Japanese.

The intel screen tells me I have shot down (I know these numbers are subject to fog of war)

1100 A6M2's
600 Ki-43c's (plus around 120 a's and b's)
150 Ki-44-IIa
100 A6M3's

Which totals around 2200 fighters, which as of Sept 1 means he is losing around 275 fighters a month. Even if you cut that number in half to say 140 that seems like a lot. Am I doing enough damage to his air arm? What sort of losses can he absorb before he loses effectiveness?

Any info would be very interesting and helpful, thanks!




The numbers appear to be on the high for Japanese naval figher losses. The IJA fighter losses appear to be quite acceptable for this point in the war. There are really many variables here: too many to give you an accurate estimation of the effect that these losses will have on pilot quality. I would suspect he will struggle with naval pilot quality for the duration of the war. He probably has a reasonable pool of army fighter pilots. Again, however, there are so many variables that it is difficult to say. Some depends upon how much continuous pressure you are able to place on him in 1943, when your own pools will be short for a few months. In 1944, you will have an enormous advantage in numbers and pilot quality will not be the determing factor in many air battles.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 4:31:20 AM)

Thanks for the info all. This is my first PBEM, and it is a different beast then playing the AI that's for sure.

Any sort of advice and information is greatly appreciated!



Aurorus -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 4:44:04 AM)

I will say one thing about those losses. The A6M2 factories do not upgrade to a better model plane. Therefore, in my opinion, he has overproduced the A6M2 if he is able to sustain that level of losses. How much he has done so, I cannot say. For example, in 10 months of war, 1100 A6M2 losses is 110 per month, which is about 50 more than I like to produce per month in 1942. Some Japanese players do set their Zero production a little higher, however, and mine is on the low end. This will eventually have some effect on his production of later-war fighter models. The A6M2 can start off carrying the burden for Japan, when the allied pilot quality is poor. Eventually, however, the IJA should be the arm that bears a larger share of this burden.



belfry -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 6:41:14 AM)

I would have expected to see A6M3a by now so it may be that he's simply overproducing A6M2. If he has built up his production factories significantly then it will cost a lot of supplies only to see it wasted when better allied fighters come into play. If he hasn't got an aggressive (and supply expensive) program of r and d to get better Jap planes he will find that his current models will perish significantly in 43 and onward. He'll have access to Jacks and Georges by late 43 so they might start pulling down some of your bombers but until he gets Franks, Tonys and later on navy Sams he'll struggle against your fighters and even then ....he'll struggle...against numbers and quality. Just my take.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/11/2017 7:50:03 PM)

Thanks again for the great info. In his air attacks over my bases I am drawing more then 1 to 1 loses or greater very consistently. It seems worth it to keep defending in force until my fighter pools give out.



rustysi -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/13/2017 12:17:20 AM)

Yeah, he should have the A6M3a's by now. Also his army bombers should be Helen IIa's by Sept, easily. His losses seem rather high and should be difficult to sustain. Especially for the IJN. I don't know what your opponent is up to, but you mentioned Australia. Could be he's overstepped. I like to try to limit Japan's early losses and think it can be done if Japan sticks to her strength's. How many losses have you taken. I mean against the AI I can easily get 4:1. In a PBEM I hope to approach roughly 2:1 in the early going. After that I'd be happy to get near 1:1, although I doubt it.



PaxMondo -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/13/2017 2:16:23 AM)

+1 to the model mix and likely production issues.

As the allies, just fight to hold the line until '43. don't worry too much about what you lose unless there is auto-vic in your game.

as for pilots/pilot quality: if he has a good training program in place, he will have ample pilots. after 2/42 I never lack for fighter pilots ... I 'graduate' them in droves. IJN bomber pilots take until 5/42 that I have enough as they need multiple skills generally ...
now whether your opponent has such a process in place is unknowable, but he could. assume he does and you are safe.



crsutton -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/13/2017 3:08:14 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: palioboy2

Okay, so fighting hard is worth it at this point even though he is totally wearing my fighter force down? I am fighting defensively over Australia so I am not losing to many pilots and I a. developing some very high quality ones.

I have been leaving the higher quality pilots on the front line, since he now has some slightly better fighters to play with I figured I would use my pilots skill levels to help compensate for the fighter qualities.

Is this a good ideal, or should I stash them away for when I have some better crates for them to fly?

Am I creating enough causalities on his side that it should start to effect his pilot quality at all? How many pilots can the IJN and IJA realistically train to a decent standard per month?


You should be killing Japanese aircraft at about a 3-2 rate at this point. Not because you are better but because you are playing defense. Air to air should be about 1-1 but you should be shooting down a lot of bombers and his OP and AA losses should be a lot more than yours.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/13/2017 3:16:56 AM)

He is basically only bombing in China. Where I haven't really been able to establish any sort of fighter defence. I have been pushed out of the Perth area and have a defensive parameter around Brisbane holding strong. He rarely Flys bombers anywhere where I can put up aircraft in defence. He is mainly sticking to sweeps. Im pretty sure I am drawing at least 3-2 loses but I would have to look it up to be sure.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/14/2017 5:16:54 AM)

So yesterdays losses were 58 fighters for me and 86 fighters for him. He only flew sweeps, no bombing missions. The following day he flew no fighters out of his bases around Brisbane. His loses were mainly A6M2's and 3's.

I feel like I am doing a good job, but I if he can maintain this pace eventually he is just going to wear me down to the nub. My fighters pools are already basically empty.

Are there any tips on how I can maximize my cap against fighter sweeps?



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/14/2017 8:31:36 PM)

Today's fighter loses were 59 for him, 51 for me. His loses for the last 3 days are 145, can he sustain these loses for long? I have lost 109 fighters so I can't really hold these loses up for long.



Insano -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/15/2017 2:45:26 AM)

All of the losses you posted in your first post look normal to me except the A6M2 which is very high. I would guess he is using partially trained pilots in these A6M2 frames without regard to their loss in order to wear down your fighter pools. 145 losses over 3 days is quite a butcher's bill for this date in the war. If this fighting is over your bases without his ground units or ships in the same hex then you can expect 145 fighter losses to be 100 pilot losses. Actually probably more than 100 pilot losses because he is using partially trained rookies.

I'll make another guess in that he didn't realize the A6M2 factories do not upgrade to A6M3. The A6M2 is starting to look quite dated at your stage of the war.

Positives for you:
1. You are applying serious pressure to his Navy fighter pilot pools. This is hitting him in his weakest spot as Navy pilots are always in short supply for Japan.
2. In a long term view every A6M2 he builds now will be a Frank or Sam that he doesn't build in 1944.

Negatives for you:
3. You are not applying pressure to attrition his fighter frames - especially Army fighters.
4. IJA pilot pools look to be good.
5. Your own fighter pools cannot sustain these losses.

Overall I'm going to say this situation is a draw.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/15/2017 5:24:10 AM)

No sweeps today. Again thanks for the info. I think I am going to keep posting results in this thread as much for my own tracking as anything else. If a mod feels like it is best to move it to another sub forum feel free to.



InfiniteMonkey -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/15/2017 3:48:31 PM)

I feel compelled to jump in here and say that the supposed pressure on IJN pilot pools is overstated. With appropriate emphasis on a training program, every pilot you are seeing on sweeps would be 50exp/70air/70def. By 9/1/1942, the IJN has 4700 pilots to burn through before it drops below the 35 national average: 1700 in air groups at start, 1700 in the Replacement Pool, and 9 months x 150/month ~1300. Most of the 1700 starting pilots exceed 50 Exp and there is ample time and resources to train the remaining to a 50Exp/70skill1/70skill2 standard. The most recent 3 months graduates (450 pilots) of the off map training are still getting to that standard, but that leaves 4250 pilots you need to kill to drop his pilots below 50 exp. If total IJN losses are less than 4250, you should assume his pilot pool is unaffected. This all assumes you have no house rule severely restricting resizing.

The disproportionate losses are in fact probably because
1) the A6M2 has been his best fighter for the war to date, and
2) IJN pilots are easier to train than IJA pilots due to resizing.

The real question is "How good is his training program?"



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/15/2017 8:48:58 PM)

Thanks again for the info. Another day of no sweeps. He launched a bombing raid against Brisbane itself that was escorted by around 75 fighters. I am not overly worried about damages to Brisbane so I had no cap overhead. He took quite a few loses to my flak and my fighters got another day of rest so it's a win win for me. His planes and pilots do seem as worn out as mine so hopefully he won't be able to maintain his pace of operations.



PaxMondo -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 12:41:41 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey

I feel compelled to jump in here and say that the supposed pressure on IJN pilot pools is overstated. With appropriate emphasis on a training program, every pilot you are seeing on sweeps would be 50exp/70air/70def. By 9/1/1942, the IJN has 4700 pilots to burn through before it drops below the 35 national average: 1700 in air groups at start, 1700 in the Replacement Pool, and 9 months x 150/month ~1300. Most of the 1700 starting pilots exceed 50 Exp and there is ample time and resources to train the remaining to a 50Exp/70skill1/70skill2 standard. The most recent 3 months graduates (450 pilots) of the off map training are still getting to that standard, but that leaves 4250 pilots you need to kill to drop his pilots below 50 exp. If total IJN losses are less than 4250, you should assume his pilot pool is unaffected. This all assumes you have no house rule severely restricting resizing.

The disproportionate losses are in fact probably because
1) the A6M2 has been his best fighter for the war to date, and
2) IJN pilots are easier to train than IJA pilots due to resizing.

The real question is "How good is his training program?"

My post #10 above ...



InfiniteMonkey -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 1:33:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMundo
My post #10 above ...

Yup. Just reinforcing your point since I saw a couple comments about IJN pilot shortages in this situation and what I regard as potentially misleading info on pilot quality differences between IJN and IJA. I find IJA a lot harder to train than IJN. I think his opponent's IJA pilot situation is likely to be far more precarious than the IJN.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 3:18:24 AM)

Sept 15th. Again no sweeps. His airforce in Oz has more or less stood down in general. I should have one squadron fully fitted with P40K's either today or tomorrow. How do they hold up? Is there a noticeable improvement from the E's which seem to be fairly over matched by his IJA fighters at this point.



Shark7 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 4:05:46 AM)

Well its been a while since I did a PBEM, but I do remember how I would treat the IJN pilots in the games I did play. Your opponent might be doing something similar.

I would move my really good IJN pilots from their squadrons to training command to save them for late in the game when I had better airframes. Meaning that from about 3/42 to the end game, I would only be sending out ~50 XP pilots as cannon fodder to keep some strain on my opponents replacement pools. Mediocre pilots in mediocre airplanes really aren't that much of a loss, especially when you are using a decent training system that can give the IJN a good number of those mediocre pilots every month.

Basically I'd take all my 80+ pilots out of play until I had the Sam and George and then put them back into service by 'Request Veteran' to the squadrons equipped with the newest planes. In other words I was playing the long game, only trying to hold the line in the middle.

I do agree with others here that he sure seems to have a lot of A6M2s given the numbers you posted. I can see keeping a couple of squadrons of those for the range to use as escorts for the Netties, but those factories should be upgraded to newer models as soon as possible.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 4:15:50 AM)

Sept 16th. Again no sweeps so I must have rattled his cage a little the other day.

I think tomorrow I am going to post some pictures of the situation in Oz to see if people have any advice in the other aspects of my defensive system. Particularly when it comes to naval affairs which is definitely the weakest part of my game (I may have wasted away 3 of my carriers learn a lesson I won't soon forget.



Alpha77 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 3:16:20 PM)

Re. the models (overbuilding them) others have made good posts already. But when you said he sweeps but does not bomb this seems strange. Sweeps will do nothing to your airfields/supply/building. He wants to wear your fighters down. But I bet his pilot losses must be quite high now. So this seems to work in your favour at the moment.

I play a bit differently I rarely sweep with early IJ planes, ONLY if I need a defended enemy place secured. Then one must often risk sweeps also with unsafe planes (for the IJ pilots) to get your bombers through, trash the base asfaip, prevent forts building, destroy supplies etc. So you ground troops have a better chance taking the place.

But not sweeps for the sake of sweeps.



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 5:48:13 PM)

Earlier in 1942 he caught me leaning themail wrong way. I thought he was going to push through the SW pacific and Burma hard but instead landed large number of troops in Oz. I was able to reinforce quickly and stop him on a line from Toowomba to Marybourgh. All the bases along the Marybouright-Bourke-Port Augusta line are all now built fairly large with forts at 5 or 6. The main concentrated area of troops in around Brisbane, we are numerically at similar levels and I am in good defensive terrain. He recently pushed me out of Perth which I wasn't really defending in strength. We are more or less at a stalemate, I think he is trying to sweep.me until I have nothing left of a fighter force so he can then bomb on a large scale.



Alpha77 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 10:05:49 PM)

Guess the Perth loss is not so worrying for the Allies and might be even play in their hands, it is a quite long stretch of water from there to nearest bigger IJ bases (Soerabaja, Batavia). puts strain on logistics and fuel consumption.

As long you hold the line of more important places in OZ-land you should be fine, how is the situation in other theaters ? Is this Scen1 or 2 ? IN 2 the IJ gets more factories, raw materials and pilots remember this.

Re. the P40K I found this to be a good upgrade and with the better speed it for sure is a better fighter than earlier IJ ones (only Tojos and M5 Zero better, but early Tojo also pretty weakly armed).

I would try setting some P38s v-high and some P39/40/F4 etc. v-low. If IJ planes dive on your low planes the P38 high up might counter dive them and with their high speed get some victims [;)]

PS: I play PBM scen2 as of end of Sept/42 my losses: (but my 1st opponent was quite agressive and then there was a hickup until another player took over the game, which for sure helped me a bit in terms of own plane losses)

630 A6M2's
380 Ki-43 b + c
80 Ki-44-IIa
0 A6M3's +M3a (not built)
70 Nick
30 A6M5
60 Nate
10 Rufe
10 Claude



PaxMondo -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/16/2017 10:30:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: InfiniteMonkey


quote:

ORIGINAL: PaxMundo
My post #10 above ...

Yup. Just reinforcing your point since I saw a couple comments about IJN pilot shortages in this situation and what I regard as potentially misleading info on pilot quality differences between IJN and IJA. I find IJA a lot harder to train than IJN. I think his opponent's IJA pilot situation is likely to be far more precarious than the IJN.

Possibly, but as I mentioned after 3/42 I have no shortage of fighter pilots....



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/17/2017 1:53:32 AM)

A few pictures of the war effort.

[image]http://imgur.com/WUoyUFC[/image]

I recently went through a fighting retreat in China, but have a fairly well established MLR again, except for a few of his units that have infiltrated in from Burma (Are they going to have any supply?)

[image]http://imgur.com/h6ygAFA[/image]

Things are pretty stable in Burma, I have hit Magwe with a few surprise raids that damaged his oil to keep him honest. He seems to not have many troops in Burma so I am pushing forward with what unresricted troops I have to the edge of the clear terrain

[image]http://imgur.com/HIu14df[/image]
[image]http://imgur.com/XScch8A[/image]

He was moving strongly in SW Pac before he landed in Oz, Noumea is currently safe

[image]http://imgur.com/LBDmtpD[/image]

I have a strongly established line in Oz, I am not really worried about him breaking through. My carriers are in the process of leaving the theater, they need to repair and upgrade. I have heavy naval combat units in Oz to protect my ports and will rely on land based A/C to protect them as long as I can. KB is currently posted at Perth.

I still have Wake Island and all of the Aleutians under my control.

In late July-ish he lead a bombardment run against Brisbane, I intercepted him with a bunch of CL's and DD's that caused his forces to get hung up. At the same time I put my carriers in position to bounce the hung up CL force he sent in. I sank a few of his ships that were damaged in the surface fighting but the majority ended up one hex outside my carriers range. The next turn I pressed the attack a little further trying to stay out of his LBA's range, but one TF cut a corner near the coast and I lost 3 carriers. So I am down to Saratoga, Lexington and Essex. I know, don't lose your carriers in 1942, I'm a dummy! [:-]



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/17/2017 1:55:42 AM)

Also apparently I don't know how to embed images



palioboy2 -> RE: Japanese aircraft production (no Xen2xen) (6/17/2017 2:26:53 PM)

Hmm I just read about players disbanding restricted Indian divisions, using the squads to fill out already purchased ones and then buying the rebuilt divisions at a fraction of the cost. I might have to look in to that considering my opponent seems to be treating Indian/Burma as a backwater.



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