Weather predictions (Full Version)

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glvaca -> Weather predictions (6/25/2017 12:38:38 PM)

I'm 100% certain the weather report gave a clear for all zones on T7 for T8. Yet, the centre zone got Mud.
I'm assuming it is as designed?

Thx!



Telemecus -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 2:11:39 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
the weather report gave a clear for all zones on T7 for T8. Yet, the centre zone got Mud.


I think they are weather forecasts not weather reports - and when was the last time a weather forecast was right?

I think there is a 75% chance that a weather foreccast is right in WitE - but someone more on top of the weather rules can correct me.



glvaca -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 2:37:53 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: glvaca
the weather report gave a clear for all zones on T7 for T8. Yet, the centre zone got Mud.


I think they are weather forecasts not weather reports - and when was the last time a weather forecast was right?

I think there is a 75% chance that a weather foreccast is right in WitE - but someone more on top of the weather rules can correct me.


Correct, weather forecasts [:)]
Ok, so you're never sure. Makes sense but is bloody annoying!
Thx!



Crackaces -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 2:42:33 PM)

Not exactly on topic but to set up an historical expectation ...forget the Germans .. nobody in Europe was expecting the severity of the winter 1941-1942..

Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1989)070<0271:TSWIET>2.0.CO;2

From the abstract:


The winter of 1941–42 is known as the coldest European winter of the 20th Century. The temperature was much below normal from the beginning of January until the end of March 1942. Blockings and cut-off lows were frequent, particularly during January and February 1942.
The role of quasi-stationary waves during this winter has been studied by decomposing the 500-mb geopotential height data in a low-pass, filtered, quasi-stationary part and a traveling part. The phase of the quasi-stationary wave was such that a ridge was present over the eastern Atlantic and a trough over western Russia throughout most of the winter. As a result, the majority of migratory cyclones that approached Europe from the west were steered either south toward the Mediterranian or north of Scandinavia.
The synoptic course of events during an outbreak of unusually cold air from the northeast at the end of January 1942 is described in some detail. Some comments are given on how the severe winter weather affected the war in the USSR.


In reading the article one can imagine the German high command reasoning that the weather would change for the better . but it got worse .. things did not go as expected in real life ..



glvaca -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 2:54:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

In reading the article one can imagine the German high command reasoning that the weather would change for the better . but it got worse .. things did not go as expected in real life ..


Interesting. They gambled and lost [;)]



Telemecus -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 3:05:38 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In reading the article one can imagine the German high command reasoning that the weather would change for the better . but it got worse .. things did not go as expected in real life ..


From reading I have come to the view that the severity of the weather was only a minor part of the problem it caused for the German army. Yes it was far worse than expected. The Germans still had officers from the first world war Eastern front to say how much worse it was. But the Germans planned for no bad weather because they expected the war to be over before then - the extra problems caused by its severity were only incremental in comparison.

There was a study done on how the SS and Luftwaffe dealt with the weather compared to the Wehrmacht. Basically when Wehrmacht quatermasters realised they would be fighting in poor weather they prioritised ammunition supplies over winter clothing reasoning that at least if they had bullets to shoot they could at least carry on. By comparison the SS and Luftwaffe prioritised winter clothing. Having or not having proper winter clothing was the biggest differentiating factor - once you had it a much worse winter only subtracted a little from Axis forces performance. The conclusion from the report was that a milder winter would have had much the same result, only different logistics would have made a difference.



Crackaces -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 4:03:24 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In reading the article one can imagine the German high command reasoning that the weather would change for the better . but it got worse .. things did not go as expected in real life ..


From reading I have come to the view that the severity of the weather was only a minor part of the problem it caused for the German army. Yes it was far worse than expected. The Germans still had officers from the first world war Eastern front to say how much worse it was. But the Germans planned for no bad weather because they expected the war to be over before then - the extra problems caused by its severity were only incremental in comparison.

There was a study done on how the SS and Luftwaffe dealt with the weather compared to the Wehrmacht. Basically when Wehrmacht quatermasters realised they would be fighting in poor weather they prioritised ammunition supplies over winter clothing reasoning that at least if they had bullets to shoot they could at least carry on. By comparison the SS and Luftwaffe prioritised winter clothing. Having or not having proper winter clothing was the biggest differentiating factor - once you had it a much worse winter only subtracted a little from Axis forces performance. The conclusion from the report was that a milder winter would have had much the same result, only different logistics would have made a difference.



Ahhhh ..

Just from a pure weather standpoint .. there are huge differences in risk between say -20 and -40 .. then the wind of the blizzards .. instant skin freeze of exposed skin with any wind and -40 .

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/cold/wind_chill.shtml




Telemecus -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 4:26:15 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

Ahhhh ..

Just from a pure weather standpoint .. there are huge differences in risk between say -20 and -40 .. then the wind of the blizzards .. instant skin freeze of exposed skin with any wind and -40 .



That used to be my view - and from a sort of common sense standpoint that should be right. Moreover the German vehicles were built for tolerances well below zero, but not -40. And the Wehrmacht horse train, which was still the main way of transport and supply for the German army, was decimated by the temperatures. So if it was a question of mobility then yes it was worse. But the German army demotorised and stayed stationary for the winter even if it was mild; so from a non-logistical point of view it did not make a lot of difference.

But I guess what the report was saying was that the difference between no winter clothing and winter clothing is greater than -20 and -40. With winter clothing you do not have exposed skin. Exposed skin gets damaged even at -20, and being in the field this was constant exposure. Perhaps being a casualty from -40 is worse and quicker than -20, but as far as the German order of battle is concerned it is still one man less.

A lot is made of how the Finns were winter weather experts - the reality was most Finnish soldiers were city folk from Helsinki etc. But they had winter equipment. During the winter war the Russians suffered badly from a milder winter because they did not have winter clothing. Again they had thought the war would be over sooner so they would not need it.

At least that is the view I have come to from reading various histories. As always though we are one historian away from changing everything again!



glvaca -> RE: Weather predictions (6/25/2017 8:04:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces
In reading the article one can imagine the German high command reasoning that the weather would change for the better . but it got worse .. things did not go as expected in real life ..


From reading I have come to the view that the severity of the weather was only a minor part of the problem it caused for the German army. Yes it was far worse than expected. The Germans still had officers from the first world war Eastern front to say how much worse it was. But the Germans planned for no bad weather because they expected the war to be over before then - the extra problems caused by its severity were only incremental in comparison.

There was a study done on how the SS and Luftwaffe dealt with the weather compared to the Wehrmacht. Basically when Wehrmacht quatermasters realised they would be fighting in poor weather they prioritised ammunition supplies over winter clothing reasoning that at least if they had bullets to shoot they could at least carry on. By comparison the SS and Luftwaffe prioritised winter clothing. Having or not having proper winter clothing was the biggest differentiating factor - once you had it a much worse winter only subtracted a little from Axis forces performance. The conclusion from the report was that a milder winter would have had much the same result, only different logistics would have made a difference.



I think that's why in most games the SS is also winterized.



Telemecus -> RE: Weather predictions: same for each side? (4/27/2018 12:12:21 PM)

Can the weather forecasts be different for each side in the same turn? Or will they always see exactly the same weather forecast?



beender -> RE: Weather predictions (4/28/2018 10:02:24 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Telemecus

I think they are weather forecasts not weather reports - and when was the last time a weather forecast was right?

I think there is a 75% chance that a weather foreccast is right in WitE - but someone more on top of the weather rules can correct me.


75% is probably too low. We don't see wrong predictions every four turns do we? [;)]



Telemecus -> RE: Weather predictions (4/28/2018 11:37:23 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: beender
75% is probably too low. We don't see wrong predictions every four turns do we? [;)]


Actually 75% is the manual description - but in one of the threads on weather here it was explained how the program interprets "75%" to be a number larger than 75%! [:D]

I find it such an amazing line that I just wanted someone to repeat it! [:)]



thedoctorking -> RE: Weather predictions (4/28/2018 5:43:13 PM)

I have a sense that weather forecasts are different for each side. On a couple of occasions, my opponent in an ongoing game with non-random weather has commented that the weather will be thus-and-so, and my prediction doesn't show that.



Telemecus -> RE: Weather predictions (4/28/2018 5:51:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: thedoctorking

I have a sense that weather forecasts are different for each side. On a couple of occasions, my opponent in an ongoing game with non-random weather has commented that the weather will be thus-and-so, and my prediction doesn't show that.


I assume that was random weather?

Were they specifically commenting on the forecast for next turn? And you were comparing it to the forecast for the same turn number, not just the previous go?

Thanks for following up this query! [:)]



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