RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (Full Version)

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Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 1:36:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ezz


quote:

ORIGINAL: Yogi the Great

Gee I thought it would take us less than 6 pages to figure out who caused WWI. [;)]


I'm waiting until it gets to 20 pages.
Then I'm going to kick it all off again with "Who was responsible for the start of the American Civil War?"

When that cools down, can always go for the ever reliable "Spitfire or Me109?"


Did you mean Bf 109, or am I being premature?




Hotschi -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 1:49:01 PM)

And if all else fails, there's still the sinking of the Bismarck...



warspite1 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 2:49:37 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yogi the Great

Gee I thought it would take us less than 6 pages to figure out who caused WWI. [;)]
warspite1

That was a little optimistic. But I think by page 9 it will be conclusively proven. We will then turn our attention to solving the riddle of who shot JFK. The trick will be to identify the culprit and describe the events without using the words Grassy Knoll....



Aurelian -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 3:47:32 PM)

Colonel Mustard, in the library, with the candlestick. He did it.



warspite1 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 4:22:02 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

Colonel Mustard, in the library, with the candlestick. He did it.
warspite1

What? Started WWI or murdered JFK?



Hotschi -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 4:51:17 PM)

Both. And his ancestors started the 100 Years War.



Aurelian -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 5:24:43 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hotschi

Both. And his ancestors started the 100 Years War.


His ancestors took Jenkin's ear too.



warspite1 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 5:50:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hotschi

Both. And his ancestors started the 100 Years War.


His ancestors took Jenkin's ear too.
warspite1

Pardon?



RichG -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 5:51:11 PM)

I always suspected the Colonel was a Russian spy in disguise. Damn the cheeky blighter.



Aurelian -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 6:47:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hotschi

Both. And his ancestors started the 100 Years War.


His ancestors took Jenkin's ear too.
warspite1

Pardon?



The War of Jenkin's Ear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Jenkins%27_Ear



warspite1 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 6:56:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hotschi

Both. And his ancestors started the 100 Years War.


His ancestors took Jenkin's ear too.
warspite1

Pardon?



The War of Jenkin's Ear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Jenkins%27_Ear
warspite1

I know, it was the old joke about enquiring if someone has lost their hearing (or in this case their ear) - followed by "Pardon?".....

Sorry [:(]



[:D]



Aurelian -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 7:00:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Aurelian

quote:

ORIGINAL: Hotschi

Both. And his ancestors started the 100 Years War.


His ancestors took Jenkin's ear too.
warspite1

Pardon?



The War of Jenkin's Ear.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Jenkins%27_Ear
warspite1

I know, it was the old joke about enquiring if someone has lost their hearing (or in this case their ear) - followed by "Pardon?".....

Sorry [:(]



[:D]


Ahhhh, I missed it... [:D]



Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 7:29:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yogi the Great

Gee I thought it would take us less than 6 pages to figure out who caused WWI. [;)]
warspite1

That was a little optimistic. But I think by page 9 it will be conclusively proven. We will then turn our attention to solving the riddle of who shot JFK. The trick will be to identify the culprit and describe the events without using the words Grassy Knoll....


That's easy.

Accidental Assassin: JFK theory alleges Secret Service agent fumbled gun

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/accidental-assassin-jfk-theory-alleges-secret-service-agent-fumbled-gun-f2D11634276



warspite1 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 7:32:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yogi the Great

Gee I thought it would take us less than 6 pages to figure out who caused WWI. [;)]
warspite1

That was a little optimistic. But I think by page 9 it will be conclusively proven. We will then turn our attention to solving the riddle of who shot JFK. The trick will be to identify the culprit and describe the events without using the words Grassy Knoll....


That's easy.

Accidental Assassin: JFK theory alleges Secret Service agent fumbled gun

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/accidental-assassin-jfk-theory-alleges-secret-service-agent-fumbled-gun-f2D11634276

warspite1

Was this hapless Secret Service Agent Goofy standing on a Grassy Knoll.....Doh!!!


[image]local://upfiles/28156/7B65D0B501DE47069E4AD83369787B63.jpg[/image]



ezzler -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 7:38:22 PM)


[/quote]

Did you mean Bf 109, or am I being premature?


[/quote]

Here we go ... Obviously it was the Spitfire. The 109 couldn't even decide if it was an Me or a bf.



altipueri -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 7:55:42 PM)

Pilot 1 "Two fokkers were shooting at me at the same time".
Pilot 2 "Yeah, they can turn tight those Fockes".
Pilot 1 "Maybe, except those particular fokkers were Messerschmitts".



Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 8:33:42 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

quote:

ORIGINAL: Yogi the Great

Gee I thought it would take us less than 6 pages to figure out who caused WWI. [;)]
warspite1

That was a little optimistic. But I think by page 9 it will be conclusively proven. We will then turn our attention to solving the riddle of who shot JFK. The trick will be to identify the culprit and describe the events without using the words Grassy Knoll....


That's easy.

Accidental Assassin: JFK theory alleges Secret Service agent fumbled gun

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/other/accidental-assassin-jfk-theory-alleges-secret-service-agent-fumbled-gun-f2D11634276

warspite1

Was this hapless Secret Service Agent Goofy standing on a Grassy Knoll.....Doh!!!


[image]local://upfiles/28156/7B65D0B501DE47069E4AD83369787B63.jpg[/image]


No, he was in the follow-up vehicle.



Jagdtiger14 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 9:09:18 PM)

To the parts you say Serbia accepted: Partially accepting, finessing, disingenuously answering, or politely rejecting is not complying, it is, rejection.

Did the Serbian government have a constitution guaranteeing free speech in 1914? I don't know. Its possible, but I highly doubt it. Lets say they did. Did Serbia have advance knowledge of the content of the letters/communication between Germany and A-H?

Assuming Serbia was completely innocent concerning the assassination (they were not, but lets say they were)...and considering the emotion/anger of the moment (literally hours), Serbia could have fully complied at least temporarily until cooler heads prevailed (one year maybe).

Your question concerning how I would look at it if it was the US is apples and oranges. The US is a large country in population as well as size, and is the lone hyper-power on the planet. Compare that to Serbia 1914 (or 2017). It just doesn't compare. Lets say the Russian VP was assassinated by a radical US citizen and Russia made these demands. I'm sure US diplomats and law enforcement would assist the Russian government to its satisfaction. If not satisfied, Russia would have to consider MAD, and probably would come off much worse in a conventional or non-conventional war. Serbia was facing extinction...their only possible savior was Russian involvement...which still didn't save them. They were completely conquered. They lost 25% of their population, plus over 130,000 wounded considering a population of 4.5M.

If Serbia fully complies, does not mobilize, and is invaded by A-H anyway, now A-H does not have casus belli, and the world rightfully would turn against it. Serbia's best move would have been to accept, not mobilze, if A-H invades immediately surrender unconditionally and appeal its situation to the international community (some of which might fall on deaf ears concerning the Balkan wars just prior). Serbia could not hope to damage A-H in the long term, but perhaps its population could be saved.

With 20/20 hindsight (which I don't think is needed) do you think Serbia made the right moves for its people?




Jagdtiger14 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 9:32:30 PM)

quote:

Interesting statement by one of the conspirators (Vaso Cubrilovic) much later in life referring to Franz Ferdinand's assassination: "We destroyed a beautiful world that was lost forever due to the war that followed." Sugar, Peter F (1999) East European Nationalism, Politics and religion. Now who was he referring to concerning "We"? The conspirators? Serbia? I don't know, but it is interesting as it seems he is taking responsibility for "who caused WW1".





You have the context. He is "referring to the assassination...", not alliances, ultimatums, blank checks, etc... He is blaming himself and his fellow conspirators. Here is a credible, first hand knowledge actual participant in these events who is taking responsibility not in a braggadocious way, but remorseful. The subject question of this thread is "who caused WWI - revisited". This man is far more credible to answer this question than any poster on this thread, or any historian.

I think this concludes the festivities.



warspite1 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/9/2017 10:10:49 PM)

I too will conclude festivities. Not much to say without repeating what has gone before, but suffice to say nothing stated here has made me move my thought process. Specifically:

- I believe hiding behind alliances (which in many cases didn't exist) is a cop-out. The leaders, the politicians, the military all had choices to make. They did not have to follow any one specific path.

- I don't set any store by references to modern day international law as it exists today in terms of trying to conclude whether Serbia were in the wrong.

- The Ultimatum was designed to be rejected. The idea that the terms and conditions were not designed to start a war is fanciful - and the idea that Serbia actually were the aggressor in the shooting war is nothing short of extraordinary.

Where I have altered my mind - certainly in the last couple of years - is that while I still believe that Germany and Austria-Hungary take the lion's share of the blame for the reasons I have outlined in previous posts, I am really not sure about the extent to which Germany had a cunning plan to start a wider war at that time (on the basis that they would soon be at a disadvantage compared to Russia/France).

There are three likely possibilities:

a) There was no plan but the Kaiser was simply criminally negligent in allowing A-H to dictate events once it was clear they weren't going to take immediate action (which would at least have been understandable).

b) There was a plan and the Kaiser was at the heart of it all along

c) There was a plan, the Kaiser was at the heart of it but he then got cold feet (or a sudden realisation that following through on this would lead to disaster) but by this time von Moltke and the General Staff effectively 'took over the show'.

Serbia, Russia, France and Britain also bear some limited measure of responsibility, but there was something at the heart of the crisis - something that made this 'Balkan crisis' lead to World War when previous crises in the Balkans and elsewhere never did. The actions taken by the Central Powers in the period between the assassination and the war starting were 'that something'.



Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/10/2017 1:08:03 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: warspite1

I too will conclude festivities. Not much to say without repeating what has gone before, but suffice to say nothing stated here has made me move my thought process. Specifically:

- I believe hiding behind alliances (which in many cases didn't exist) is a cop-out. The leaders, the politicians, the military all had choices to make. They did not have to follow any one specific path.

- I don't set any store by references to modern day international law as it exists today in terms of trying to conclude whether Serbia were in the wrong....


The Sixth Commandment, "Thou shalt do no murder," isn't modern and does include state-sponsored assassination.

fini



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/10/2017 7:10:59 PM)

quote:

Where I have altered my mind - certainly in the last couple of years - is that while I still believe that Germany and Austria-Hungary take the lion's share of the blame for the reasons I have outlined in previous posts, I am really not sure about the extent to which Germany had a cunning plan to start a wider war at that time (on the basis that they would soon be at a disadvantage compared to Russia/France).

There are three likely possibilities:

a) There was no plan but the Kaiser was simply criminally negligent in allowing A-H to dictate events once it was clear they weren't going to take immediate action (which would at least have been understandable).

b) There was a plan and the Kaiser was at the heart of it all along

c) There was a plan, the Kaiser was at the heart of it but he then got cold feet (or a sudden realisation that following through on this would lead to disaster) but by this time von Moltke and the General Staff effectively 'took over the show'.


There unquestionably was such a cunning plan: the Von Schlieffen plan. It was not the sort of thing that can be dreamed up and organized overnight -- mobilization orders, maps, railway schedules, etc, etc, had to be written out and put in place. The question is when exactly was the decision made to execute it.

For whatever my opinion is worth, I am inclined to believe option "c". I rather think the German military realized that the crisis over the assassination of the Archduke could be used as an excuse to execute the Von Schlieffen plan, and that was why they encouraged the Austrians to make maximum demands to Serbia. There is reason to believe that the Kaiser attempted towards the end of July to divert the German army to attack Russia, and stay on the defensive against France so as not to invade Belgium and provoke Britain. However, von Moltke apparently argued that there was no time for the massive re-work of the railway schedules that would involve.



Capitaine -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/10/2017 10:00:02 PM)

Lol. Military plans are not political plans.



Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/10/2017 11:23:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

Lol. Military plans are not political plans.


"War is the continuation of politics by other means" - Carl von Clausewitz



Capitaine -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/11/2017 1:52:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

Lol. Military plans are not political plans.


"War is the continuation of politics by other means" - Carl von Clausewitz

And that's why nations have military plans for EVERY contingency.



Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/11/2017 1:56:19 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

Lol. Military plans are not political plans.


"War is the continuation of politics by other means" - Carl von Clausewitz


And that's why nations have military plans for EVERY contingency.


I once wrote one for an amphibious invasion of Chile!



wings7 -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/11/2017 6:11:33 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

Lol. Military plans are not political plans.


"War is the continuation of politics by other means" - Carl von Clausewitz


And that's why nations have military plans for EVERY contingency.


I once wrote one for an amphibious invasion of Chile!

Joe, please post your military plan on the amphibious invasion of Chile on the forum here...I (we) would like to read & study it! Thanks! [:)]



Joe D. -> RE: Who caused WW1 - revisited (9/11/2017 10:11:32 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: wings7


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine


quote:

ORIGINAL: Joe D.


quote:

ORIGINAL: Capitaine

Lol. Military plans are not political plans.


"War is the continuation of politics by other means" - Carl von Clausewitz


And that's why nations have military plans for EVERY contingency.


I once wrote one for an amphibious invasion of Chile!

Joe, please post your military plan on the amphibious invasion of Chile on the forum here...I (we) would like to read & study it! Thanks! [:)]


I wrote it during my BNOC about 20 years ago, but wherever it is now, it's still the property of the U.S. Army. Suffice it to say that Chile is long but relatively thin strip of land on S. America's southwest coast that was subjected to multiple simultaneous amphibious operations that divided and isolated the country.



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