RE: Notes from a Small Island (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:19:32 AM)

2/25/45

Asahikawa: Weather does permit. Allied sweepers find no opposition over this industrial hex. The bombers should follow.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0C8E81E38B474C03A52BCB88D1059245.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:27:15 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui Strikes: Erik has strike aircraft in range and set to strike....but, wait, where is my CAP? Where are my CVEs? This kind of strike would be manageable (I think). I have four CVEs that are supposed to be in this hex. They can put up 100 fighters, staggered from 8k to 20k...but they aren't here.

Eventually, I'm going to figure out that I failed to detach the CVE TF and to give it orders to steam to the beach hex. I set everything else (CAP%, range, etc.) but overlooked the fact that the TF does have to go to the beach if I want it to go to the beach. Instead, it is still following along with the fleet CVs.

As a result of this oversight, a lot of enemy strikes (and they are mostly manageable, I think) come in and do a fair bit of damage.

On the plus side, the damage occurs after the bulk of Allied troops come ashore and is mostly to low-value shipping (excepting some nice LSI(L)s).

I don't think I'll post the long list of enemy strikes and damage - or perhaps I'll do it in consolidated fashion - but I think, overall, the Allies achieve the main goal - to land a large army at acceptable cost.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C4468EDF58FA4F5CAA912E028DD90BE0.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:30:20 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui: Ah, what the heck. I guess I ought to show all of the enemy strikes. I enjoy posting when a series of Allied strikes are successful, so "what's good for the goose..."

[image]local://upfiles/8143/6B7F57F0A5B6499AB210A472F7E88F48.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:37:05 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui: Oops, I've been posting sync bug version of the action at Mergui. My analysis/commentary has been accurate, but not the bombing results.

So, scratch those last two posts and let me correct the record this way:

During the morning phase, I don't think there were any strikes vs. Allied shipping at Mergui. There was, however, a strike against low-value shipping carrying paratroops to the hex to the NE (a non-base hex, for a blocking position). I don't know if any troops got ashore before their transports were sunk. I lost some good paratroops but the shipping wasn't much.

In the afternoon, this is the first strike to hit shipping at Mergui. As noted previously, my CVEs are not present due to operator error.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/ADCC8C1D1DBF4907B7DB91F3508ECFCA.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:43:50 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui: The remaining strikes against Mergui shipping.

I lost some valuable ships (LSI(L)), and all ships are useful, but overall this is an acceptable cost since I was wiling to risk the four CVEs and ended up not doing so (uh, operator error).

[image]local://upfiles/8143/3C8D6018377347D7A8B7842BEAB87FB5.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:46:35 AM)

2/25/45

Near Tavoy: I think this is the TF carrying the paratroops to the non-base hex NE of Mergui, but now I'm not sure. It looks like more than simply a contingent of paratroops. I'll know for certain later, when I open the turn file.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/8A2A3D6C7C814A4CB38C40AD4E31C0A9.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:53:19 AM)

2/25/45

Asahikawa: It has been rare for Allied 4EB to get an open shot at enemy industry, like these.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E779AAFD1BDA4C87A1C28C6BB741C033.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:03:36 AM)

2/25/45

Paramushiro: The amphibious TF only had four hexes to go, but doesn't arrive and begin unloading until the PM phase. The TF includes a lot of LCI gunships. This part of the landing looks good.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/29B62BE878C14D8AB522FEE4FBB61DB6.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:09:12 AM)

2/25/45

Paramushiro: This part looks awful! Disablements are through the rough. Winter conditions are still in, but based upon my previous test at Shimishura, which corroborated Lokasenna's analysis, I thought that this would be rather negligible.

This is bad stuff. The enemy garrison is (I think) fairly small and should be subject to disruption via bombing, bombardment and (possibly) future auto-bombardments due to follow-up landings. So maybe my army, tattered as it seems to be, can handle this. But...yikes.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/A18EF5C3B9A24AB29902C5C03DE229E3.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:12:27 AM)

2/25/45

Paramushiro: Sorta apocalyptic-looking. I hope Allied AV turns out to be considerably higher than this when I open the turn file.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/EBFBA9DB7F014E08970E29C79C449A2B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:17:27 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui: This doesn't look like a pushover, by any means. At least, though, the blocking-position troops are in place.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/07A6EE5EE1A64614B037905748982B86.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:22:21 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui: This graphic is encouraging. Enemy AVs pretty weak. 2nd UK Div. is strong. It looks like the West African Div. took the bulk of the losses.

All Allied troops are 100% prepped.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/22F7DA8EE6ED43B5BEC15118B9B20EC0.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:26:40 AM)

2/25/45

Paramushiro: Wow, this is one of the saddest graphics I've ever seen. Erik really has nothing here....but my guys are weaker than anything ever before landed on any beach in any war.

I cannot fathom what went wrong here. The Cold Zone landing at Shimishura resulted in perhaps 15% disablements. This one is through the roof. There were differences - 100% prep in the former, 70% here. And Shimishura had a 100% Amphib Force HQ. I'd anticipated higher disablements, but not utter mayhem.

This doesn't seem to be a hot zone. I doubt Erik, as amused as he'll be, will reinforce this far out. So my guys should be able to take this base after resting awhile. Maybe.




[image]local://upfiles/8143/A99D38F6F28C4EF99A98DDAFF9317321.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 1:46:38 AM)

2/25/45

Mergui: These guys are ready to fight. Fully-prepped, modern equipment. I'm weighing whether to deliberate attack or shock attack.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/D09D933DAB8643BD8CC299B1C06B695F.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 3:04:39 AM)

I've finished going through the turn file. I've nearly finished entering orders. Overall impressions, now that I have all the information from that turn:

1. Paramushiro: Wow! The disablements were epic. The troops were indeed prepped at 70%. What I take from this: Cold Zone effects may be highly variable, depending on a dice roll. Beware. Erik's garrison is so weak that he probably won't succeed if he counterattacks. Had this been a hardened target, I might've lost the entire army. Bombers will target the base, as will a bombardment TF. My army may need two weeks to gain enough AV to permit an attack.

2. Mergui: I got pretty lucky here. The sync bug version of the turn had much higher ship losses, and consequently much higher troop losses. The Allied army is in good shape and will mostly shock attack tomorrow. The ships did a fine job of unloading. Consequently, they will all withdraw tomorrow, carrying mostly motorized support.

3. The troops landing in the adjacent hex was a figment of the sync bug. No troops landed. I'm detaching one xAP to land a contingent there, knowing that xAP will be destroyed.

4. Tomorrow, Allied fighters will sweep, and bombers will bomb, Sendai. I think there's merit and promise in the new strategic bombing campaign - Kushiro airfield and P-51Ds (and P-38Ls) give the Allies enough range to gang up on any base that doesn't appear uber defended. Soon - maybe tomorrow - Erik will catch on and defend in depth. I'll keep probing until he does. He'll have to pull some of his immense fighter corps out of Hokkaido if he wants to defend his industry in northern Honshu. This could be a significant development.,

5. Paramushiro: Wow.




Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 6:01:18 AM)

I don't think that was cold effects so much as: lots of heavy coastal guns and lack of 100% prep and lack of 100% prepped HQm on AGC and lack of really wearing down all those coastal guns.

Also, that combat report showing 500+ squads disabled... the LCU losses (in any screen) seem to be on a FOW multiplier of anywhere from -50% of actual to +100% of actual.



zuluhour -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:49:17 AM)

Curious why Mergui over Tavoy?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:43:38 PM)

When I began planning this about eight months ago, I knew that Mergui and Victoria Point were lightly defended. Mergui airfield can be built to level 9, and the base is further from Erik's massive army and airfields at Rangoon/Pegu.

I didn't try to push Erik's army from Rangoon/Pegu, figuring that the more distant it was from Mergui or Victoria Point, the better.

Then I began probing, irregularly but constantly, in this region, hoping to draw Erik's attention so that he might siphon off important vessels from NoPac. I focused more on Victoria Point, and Erik began reinforcing, primarily there.

That left Mergui as the favored target.




Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:46:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I don't think that was cold effects so much as: lots of heavy coastal guns and lack of 100% prep and lack of 100% prepped HQm on AGC and lack of really wearing down all those coastal guns.

Also, that combat report showing 500+ squads disabled... the LCU losses (in any screen) seem to be on a FOW multiplier of anywhere from -50% of actual to +100% of actual.


Loka, that makes sense, and I want to accept it, because then the difficulties become predictable and therefore manageable.

But look at the Paramushiro graphics above. Erik really didn't have many guns there, and my combat ships and LCI gunships seemed to suppress them well. The Allied amphibious ships took essentially no damage.

So, from my seat, with an admitted lack of experience to fully digest this info, it doesn't seem like Para's CD units played a big role. From where I sit, I think Cold Zone and dice were the primary culprits, aided by the lower (70%) prep.



zuluhour -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 12:55:38 PM)

No arguing with deductive reasoning. (I hope that is deductive reasoning) I was curious
on account of my struggles with the whole supply thing in that area. Every hex seems
to soak off more and more on the advance to Thailand. A very productive landing in any
case. I'm sure it will unhinge more than the units to the north.[;)]
thank you



Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 6:09:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lokasenna

I don't think that was cold effects so much as: lots of heavy coastal guns and lack of 100% prep and lack of 100% prepped HQm on AGC and lack of really wearing down all those coastal guns.

Also, that combat report showing 500+ squads disabled... the LCU losses (in any screen) seem to be on a FOW multiplier of anywhere from -50% of actual to +100% of actual.


Loka, that makes sense, and I want to accept it, because then the difficulties become predictable and therefore manageable.

But look at the Paramushiro graphics above. Erik really didn't have many guns there, and my combat ships and LCI gunships seemed to suppress them well. The Allied amphibious ships took essentially no damage.

So, from my seat, with an admitted lack of experience to fully digest this info, it doesn't seem like Para's CD units played a big role. From where I sit, I think Cold Zone and dice were the primary culprits, aided by the lower (70%) prep.


The presence of CD guns, in my anecdotal experience, seems to increase casualties on the beach. Regardless of how they figured into hitting ships or not. Here's a summary of what those units have in them:

Wake Cst Gun Bn: 4x 20cm, 4x 15cm, 8x 12cm, 8x 12cm (all DP and therefore CD guns)

Kitachishima Fort: 6x 8cm DP, 4x 24cm howitzer

31st Special BF: 4x 8cm DP, 4x 81mm mortar

That's a lot of "dedicated" CD guns, which do much better than just regular artillery tubes in causing disruption/disablements on the beach. If the guns are still in 'ready' status, they'll wreck the troops coming ashore regardless of whether the ships doing the landings took any hits.

Plus the regular artillery that he also had there.



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:21:40 PM)

2/26/45

Paramushiro: I am not the master of nuclear bombardments. A few guns destroyed, which may be helpful. I don't think the port or airfield will be a factor, but it's odd that not hits were scored.

My primary concern here is that the Allied army suffered such heavy disablements that Erik might counterattack. Probably not, but bombardment and bombings were scheduled to (hopefully) soften the defenses a bit. Also, supply is coming in, heavy on LCI gunship support.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/716D14FCB0234EB49E2A4E7E36CF2F90.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:24:33 PM)

2/26/45

Mergui: The enemy port and airfield here won't play a role, either (airfield is level 1), but that's what the bombardment targets. It's possible, though, that the fire helped disrupt the two enemy infantry units here.

This TF doesn't have spotter planes, so I didn't expect much.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/58AED6F49E58421CBF8B3C2429DCC9F1.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:29:23 PM)

2/26/45

Paramushiro: LCI gunships escorting LST supply TF are very effective. I can keep this up indefinitely, as the gunships retire to Death Star after each bombardment and then replenish from the AEs. I have a lot of the gunships, so I'll keep cycling them until it's time for DS to retire and move to other areas.

Actually, that will be soon. The Allied army here will need weeks of rest before it can attack. Soon, DS and the ingressing TFs will move to Shikuka. DS will replenish missing aircraft (fighters). The invaison of another of the Kuriles will take place in a week or so - after Cold Zone effects have ended for the season.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/32D82CED352348C09DD210E5E9202B0B.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:32:48 PM)

2/26/45

North of Mergui: This time a blocking force makes it ashore. Allied troops with motorized support can use Strat Mode on good roads, like the one from Tavoy to Mergui. I don't think Japanese troops have that capability, but I don't want to take a chance of reinforcements rushing down from the Rangoon sector.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C42C1EF3D85C4097B57B58A99A248117.jpg[/image]



Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:40:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/26/45

Paramushiro: I am not the master of nuclear bombardments. A few guns destroyed, which may be helpful. I don't think the port or airfield will be a factor, but it's odd that not hits were scored.

My primary concern here is that the Allied army suffered such heavy disablements that Erik might counterattack. Probably not, but bombardment and bombings were scheduled to (hopefully) soften the defenses a bit. Also, supply is coming in, heavy on LCI gunship support.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/716D14FCB0234EB49E2A4E7E36CF2F90.jpg[/image]


Very little ammo used?



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:40:37 PM)

2/26/45

Mergui: Yesterday's landings went so well that all transports and supporting TFs were ordered to cease operations and retire to the protection of RN Death Star. Some of the heavily damaged ships were capable of making only 1 or 3 or 5 knots. Erik's strike aircraft will sortie and pick off a bunch (perhaps ten, in all). DS LRCAP will down a handful of enemy planes.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/C38B6F61AF33431C95A9599B3071B32D.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:46:30 PM)

2/26/45

The Formerly Contested Hex: Enemy fighters continue to sweep this hex in numbers, and enemy strike aircraft continue to batter the collection of small but useful Allied units that blocked the advance by the enemy army.

To this point, Erik hasn't targeted the large army withdrawing from Bihoro to Kushiro. This is the third turn of unmolested advance. It's going to be a lengthy journey through open terrain, so each day without maulings is helpful.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/772791FC19CF4D38AFE7B7DE9DB76702.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/18/2018 11:54:38 PM)

2/26/45

Sendai: This is the strategic bombing target for the day. Allied sweeps come from a number of airfields. Some come in the morning, like this one, some in the afternoon. Some come before the 4EB (delayed to PM, due to weather) and some afterwards.

Overall, the sweeps handle enemy fighters well. As expected, the base doesn't have really strong CAP. Erik still has most of his first tier fighters on Hokkaido and at Ominato.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E36DF51E44114BA2BDE4D19499D5FF23.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (11/19/2018 12:14:57 AM)

2/26/45

Sendai: Allied bombers are delayed by weather until the PM phase, and are the first aircraft to arrive. Enemy CAP, which was taken care of during the AM phase, is reinvigorated but not strong enough to really tinker with the bombers.

This being daylight, the results of the raid are pretty good.

After the bombers, the weather clears over several Allied airfields, allowing addition fighters to sweep. They do well.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/842C3E1AAFD1419EADD0810C4B261C2C.jpg[/image]



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