RE: Notes from a Small Island

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Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 2:50:39 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka [image]local://upfiles/8143/1FBC2C8685364258A9E7AA7CCD5BA59A.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 2:54:12 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka [image]local://upfiles/8143/11D6A21BD143429EB98856396E1A4D01.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 2:55:38 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka [image]local://upfiles/8143/05EF4EDBB47644F299B75E374F59B57F.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 2:57:21 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka [image]local://upfiles/8143/B1E19AE3CD2E4726B5F2837310A479ED.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 2:59:07 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka: [image]local://upfiles/8143/6E2ECA84F86F43728B13A9AD5727DCE1.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:03:28 AM)
I haven't finished the replay yet, but that's the end of the CR results. A violent, epic battle. My defenses at Shikuka are slim now - perhaps six to eight Fletchers remain, along with a handful of PT TFs. Erik's TFs should be out of ammo. I think he has to withdraw to replenish before he can come back and apply the coup-de-grace. Death Star will arrive on scene by then, I think. He's basically won the Battle of Shikuka at this point, or would if Death Star isn't able to arrive and restore order. I think it will, but no guarantees. But at what a cost for Erik. I think he's lost 50+ DDs, 25+ subs, 9 CLs, two CAs, one BB. He's had alot more damaged, including two carriers likely out of action and a third slowed to some degree. How badly has this reduced his ability to face Death Star? He's such a good and experienced player that I may still be overmatched. But imagine if DS had faced the Japanese OOB that existed 32 days ago as opposed to what's out there now.

Anachro -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:13:20 AM)
Just dropping in to say I have been enjoying your AAR immensely and look forward to see how you overcome the onslaught. My only wish is that obvert could update his AAR more often, but I can imagine he is busy with real life and his other Lowpe AAR + any other PBEMs he might be playing. Regarding the strikes on KB, the various different waves coming in separately unescorted or with spotty amounts of escorts (and the ensuing high number of aircraft losses) very much reminds me of Midway, even if not as decisive. As for Soryu, it might yet burn up with fires and heavy damage. Still, I wouldn't go so far as to say the Battle of Shikuka has been won by him; it appears to me more like a stalemate that you will soon overcome. He cannot evict you from there and you should be able to increasingly make use of it as DS takes control and attrition hurts his ability to prevent you from basing your bomber there. My only question is your expectations for continuing a strat bombing campaign and how that might have been affected by your recent losses. Nontheless, the surface forces of the IJN have been degraded throughout this battle, but remain a decent threat. KB is still there, even if its usefulness as this stage of the War is minor. I think you are focusing too much on KB to your detriment and Shikuka has further been too much of a focus. You have allowed him to concentrate his forces in a manner that seriously caused setback and I wonder if time might have been better spent while this was going on by making inroads elsewhere in his empire.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:19:29 AM)
I understand why you and others would think that. I am making inroads elsewhere, using minimal assets but making solid progress. So that's fine. But Shikuka means everything. I couldn't afford to leave it to itself any more than Erik can afford to ignore it. If it stands (and I think it will) it's the decisive ground of the war - Guadalcanal on Steroids, if you will. It's the ground where Erik threw everything at me and never quite managed to win. He bled himself badly while I (in effect) used mostly surplus material. Going forward, I can hammer him with 4EB and (if I take control of the seas in the next month or three), I can invade his heartland. He'll have a hard time opposing the entire Allied naval and air OOB. Last, but not least, this theater will dovetail with Russia when activation takes place in 10 months. Fighting elsewhere would've been counterproductive. I've grabbed Erik by the ears. I have to hold on until the wolf tires enough to grab him by the throat or by the dangly bits.

Anachro -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:31:17 AM)
You are probably right. At this stage, you are committed and it's looking increasingly like he won't evict you as I said. The time to decide to hit elsewhere was probably a month or two ago if you were going to do it. With all that has happened, it would make no sense to do so now. I wonder how many DDs he has left and that will certainly limit him, but with parts of the KB still there, as well as his BBs and LBA, I think you are still in for a period of attritional warfare (but that's the type of war the Allies are far more advantaged in than the Japanese so maybe that IS the best strategy).

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:37:14 AM)
Given his experience and ability, he'll be tough. Like I mentioned above, I still might be overmatched here. But I feel a lot more confident entering into the next phase than I did a month ago. P.S. The sync bug version of the aerial attack was depressingly victorious - many of his carriers sunk, another BB, several CAs and CLs. The only thing that means to me is that the plan had a chance to succeed far beyond how it did. P.P.S. CL Astoria II arrived in San Fran today. What timing! CA Astoria went down today but got a big assist in the sinking of BB Fuso.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:45:27 AM)
10/2/44 Air Losses: Marianas Turkey Shoot in Reverse, indeed. Allied fighter losses aren't heavy. Strike losses (mainly Avengers) are heavy. Not crippling, I think. I don't know yet if Erik has any inkling that Death Star is nearby - he probably does. He might conclude it's been neutered or weakened. I have key decisions to make - For the next turn, is DS mainly a defensive platform loaded with fighters or is it offensive? I'm toying with defense for this reason. This time, DS won't retire unless suffering a bad defeat. This time, if I take some hits but neuter enemy carrier air, DS remains on station while Erik will need to regroup. I'll accept or seek a carrier battle if the circumstances are right, but a higher priority is to get the vast flotilla of supply ships to Shikuka, along with imposing DS's presence, which will prevent Erik from attacking the port again. [image]local://upfiles/8143/A0F112D14FFA4492A8F750C34B8BE608.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 3:58:10 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka: This is the strongest remaining TF. It's experienced and can fight, but many of the ships have suffered damage to some weapons and other systems. [image]local://upfiles/8143/9126DEFF71F246C99AFDF2351D320383.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:00:56 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka: This TF can fight too. [image]local://upfiles/8143/5BC739EAC13F42B39A497AF68276D903.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:05:19 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka: And a third. Many of Erik's best TFs have to retire to replenish. If they don't, these three TFs could really cause problems. He may have a few TFs that have managed to replenish since this all started three or four days ago. But I think Shikuka is fairly secure until his big guys complete a replenishment run. [image]local://upfiles/8143/327753C9EE944437976E03DD068AF310.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:07:28 AM)
There are just seven PT TFs left. I've lost scores of those.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:12:32 AM)
There are another 17 PT TFs a hex SE of Shikuka. Most of them need to return to port to replenish.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:14:37 AM)
10/2/44 Shikuka: The Rourke's Drift hospital corps somehow survived and is one hex SE of Shikuka. Boston began the turn with 72 SYS damage, tangled with enemy BB/CA TF, took heavy damage, and then ate a sub-fired torpedo. [image]local://upfiles/8143/6E6898D6B25C4F1791451F80E5C0D465.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:17:29 AM)
Looking over the map, I have a better feel for what transpired. The day was devastatingly violent. Both sides took heavy, grevious losses. The Allies won the day.

Lokasenna -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:34:07 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel 10/2/44 Shikuka: These enemy BBs don't have escorts and are showing smoke and fires. [image]local://upfiles/8143/192B18F370DE4CB28C19C239F67252CC.jpg[/image] If they don't say "on fire", they're not on fire. You're likely seeing system damage upwards of 20-some, which is (IME) when the smoke gets "thicker." It's not 50+ because you don't see "heavy damage" (which shows up for Sys damage, too). IJN DDs: I counted 9-10 for sure, 2 maybes. I would be surprised if Yamashiro survived. Do you know what other damage messages you got for the 2 sub torpedo hits? quote: ORIGINAL: Canoerebel Escorting fighters seem like mincemeat in AE. Or is it the way I handle them? From the combat report, yours seemed to do fine against comparable IJN aircraft. You lost 13 reported while only outnumbering the CAP by 10%, with a lot of CAP and a lot of warning. Your strike craft taking a beating against CAP with minimal escorts in later strikes hurts, but IMO it's worth it. He accomplished, basically, squat except for some VPs. Those won't help him. Nothing you lost will substantially slow you. He lost 1-2 BBs and potentially a CV. IMO he lost the war with this single day's battle. He expended dozens of seaborne assets for minimal gain, and nothing permanent. At this stage in the war as the Allies, I will happily trade a half dozen CAs/CLs (and a few hundred planes?) to sink 1-2 BBs and a dozen DDs, plus put some heavy damage hurt on a couple of CVs. But here's my question: do you think he can actually retake Shikuka? If so, how? Unless he gets a bunch of assault shipping, there's no way he can land enough before your CVs stop him on the beaches. You just knocked a few of his CVs out of the war, potentially for good, and would have the luxury of "baiting" his CVs from out of range of his LBA by using the waters NE of Shikuka. The IJA/IJN just doesn't have the invasion power to dislodge more than a division or two of Allied troops on about a week's notice, if they can even do that. Just a hunch, but my suspicion is that he was merely trying to bombard Shikuka's airfield into smithereens again. Even if it's "just" B-24s because you flew the B-29s out, they're still 2 points apiece for him.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:40:57 AM)
He's never had a chance of successfully counterinvading Shikuka. I have too much supply, too many troops, too many forts. So that wasn't a concern. The concern was that hey would bombard the airfield and then, with impunity, hit my shipping there. I have hundreds and hundreds of ships there, though not as many hundreds as a month ago. I would hate to lose 500 ships purely becuase the VP hit would really hurt the war effort. But the real concern is the APAs and AKAs. I have scores of them at Shikuka. They are meant to carry the troops that will be invading the Kuriles and forward. Losing them would hurt alot.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:48:42 AM)
10/2/44 NoPac: A colorful, busy theater. You can see part of the cavalry inbound. They're all there. The original plan was to approach the Kuriles, relying on the DMS TFs from Shikuka to help open the gaps between the islands. DS was going to move erratically, leaping forward to seek/accept a carrier battle. How do my plans change in light of what's transpired at Shikuka? Pressing forward with haste is in order, given the damage absorbed by his TFs and their need to replenish. KB has been weakened a bit. He has lots of airfields on lots of islands. He has a big air force. He has riff-raff aplenty. The risk of CAP traps is high. He could choke the island gaps with mines, subs, riff-raff, combat TFs, etc. I have with me the invasion force for Uruppu. I can proceed there now, or I can instead try to force passage into the Sea of Oktosk. That would allow me to affload 1.5 million supply at Shikua and to load the amphib forces for one of the other, more remote, more manageable islands, like Ketoi or Onnekotan or Paramushiro. [image]local://upfiles/8143/B553B786D43D4E1A902CBFEBEE8874C6.jpg[/image]

JeffroK -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 7:22:47 AM)
have you tried to build more PT's at Shikuka & maybe Toyohara?

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 7:38:43 AM)
No PTs left. When this started, I had a tremendous stockpile. I've used them all. I think I still have 24 PT TFs at Shikuka and the hex to the SE.

palioboy2 -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 7:56:55 AM)
How did you end up configuring your CVE's?

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 8:02:16 AM)
Right now they're in separate TFs. They're likely to remain so. (For new readers, this goes back to a discussion of some ideas back around late August, just before all heck broke loose.)

Barb -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 8:02:29 AM)
Epic! And what actual damage did you scored against enemy CVs? You said it was better in actual turn than in the replay due to sync bug. If you sent just a few damaged packing home it is a victory. BTW - I would try to rush forward your DS - the Shikuka defense is almost open - if he feels urgency to throw anything he had at you at the moment, he can score big (although it will take few turns to replenish and rearm his big boys - he still is just few turns away).

jwolf -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 12:48:53 PM)
That truly was an awesome, terrifying, and epic battle. Erik is doing what your previous opponent would not: commit everything, or nearly so, in a massive "there's no tomorrow" counterattack. Strategically I believe the results were a victory for you, though at very high cost. I strongly suspect that many of the Japanese capital ships are mission killed for weeks, which should be enough time for you to firmly regain the initiative in this theater. But that brings up one of the things about this game that is both frustrating and exciting: you never really know for sure just how much damage the enemy ships have taken, except for a few confirmed sinkings. Kudos for a great game and AAR!

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 1:45:59 PM)
10/2/44 Planning for Tomorrow: Highlights of the plan tomorrow, as the cavalry rides towards the besieged homesteaders. If this had happened five weeks ago, waiting at Shikuka would be a friendly navy: two old BBs, one BC, about five CAs, about four CLs, and perhaps 30-40 DDS of all kinds. Of those, now only about 12 DDs are fit to fight. But waiting five weeks ago would have been an enemy force that is now short on ammo, deep in damaged ships, and missing one BB, two CA, nine CL, 50+ DDs, 25+ subs. Death Star and its associates is very strong and comparatively mcuh stronger than would have been the case in late August. The environment is still dangerous, of course: choked waters, a clever enemy, an aroused and determined enemy still equipped with lots of assets, both sea and air. [image]local://upfiles/8143/B6E80BC6763E44E2AAC36BE6DE7A47A6.jpg[/image]

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:23:37 PM)
Planning for the next turn, October 3, I considered stripping Death Star and Shikuka of strike aircraft to load up Toyohara airfield. That might allow another crack at KB or crippled carriers. I elected not to. Today's strike caught Erik a bit surprised. He's alert now and will take measures to protect his assets. I can't afford to cripple Death Star's air squadrons. Getting Death Star in position, asserting control over the Sea, and proceeding with amphibious and other offensive ops is more important than risking that to purse carriers.

Canoerebel -> RE: Notes from a Small Island (5/21/2018 4:28:50 PM)
This campaign, still ongoing and subject to major fluctuations in fortunes, has been long and violent. Erik came very close to overwhelming Allied defenses and destroying an entire fleet of ships. I'm fortunate that he didn't succeed. But this campaign is doing what it was meant to do. Erik had been establishing his strong inner defenses. He was Longstreet, holding the high ground and fully prepared for the enemy to attack. But I flipped the table on him. I managed to get the high ground and he had to attack (or he decided he had to). He's thrown everything he has at Shikuka at terrific cost to both sides, but in greater proportion for him. It's almost time for Longstreet to come off that hill and try to bring the war to the enemy.

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