German manpower production (Full Version)

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Stelteck -> German manpower production (11/16/2017 7:50:19 AM)

Hi.
I have difficulties to evaluate the german manpower production.

There is the % allowed to east front. (Like 70% in 1943).

The manual say that production in combat report take into account this %.

So i opened various campaign scenario starting in 1941, 1942 and 1943 and checked the manpower production reported in the CR.

But it looks like that everytime the production is around 32/33K each turn. The % allowed to east front do not look to change anything.

There is also HIWI production (around 3K) and i do not know if HIWI production is affected by % allowed to east front. (For historical point of view HIWI were often used west or in germany as factory workers but ingame i do not know).

Anyone can help me evaluate how many german i have to invite in my leisure camps in siberia [:'(]




Denniss -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:07:14 AM)

event log, production section, shows manpower production for all axis nations, not separated by country
AFAIR Hiwi production should be affected by soviet manpowr multiplier and german east %




Stelteck -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:09:38 AM)

So if in the CR the manpower production is around 32K, with a multiplier of 70%, it means that the german army will receive in the east 22K fresh recruits, (not taking into account returning casualties and transfert).




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:19:42 AM)

Production shows full production, including items going West. Even log should show how many is available to the East Front (one total for all ground elements, one for all aircraft, one each for manpower and other resources).




Stelteck -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:22:35 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Production shows full production, including items going West. Even log should show how many is available to the East Front (one total for all ground elements, one for all aircraft, one each for manpower and other resources).


Ho, so i'am wrong.

But in this case scenario campaign 1941-1945, scenario campaign 1942-1945, scenario campaign 1943-1945 have the same german manpower production according to CR despite different % allowed to eastern front it is a little strange.

I'am still completely confused of how many german i have to invite in Siberia each turn in 1943.




Denniss -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:53:51 AM)

GC41 T2 Axis, event log:
quote:

30481 MANPOWER recruited in 3749 manpower centers (0 were local, 20286 available)




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:54:06 AM)

quote:

PRODUCTION

Scenario production usage: German 100%, Axis Allies 100%, Soviet 100%
German production sent to East Front: 70% / Air 53%
Italian production sent to East Front: 30%

232000 tons of RESOURCES produced in 232 resource centers

30800 tons of OIL produced in 100 oil centers

22560 tons of FUEL produced in 98 fuel refineries (20400 available)
28200 tons of OIL consumed by FUEL production

15436 tons of SYNTHETIC FUEL produced in 46 synthetic fuel centers (10881 available)
30872 tons of RESOURCES consumed by SYNTHETIC FUEL production

170200 tons of SUPPLIES produced in 182 heavy industry centers (170200 available)
170200 tons of RESOURCES consumed by SUPPLY production

64250 ARMAMENTS produced in 147 armaments factories (100% production level, 44301 available)
12850 tons of SUPPLIES consumed by ARMAMENTS production

4556 VEHICLES produced in 330 vehicle factories (100% production level, 3166 available)
22780 tons of SUPPLIES consumed by VEHICLE production

312 AIRCRAFT produced in 312 aircraft factories (100% production level, 147 available)
12436 tons of SUPPLIES consumed by AIRCRAFT production

267 GROUND ELEMENTS produced in 267 ground element factories (100% production level, 191 available)
5233 tons of SUPPLIES consumed by GROUND ELEMENT production

28200 tons of OIL consumed by ALL production
201072 tons of RESOURCES consumed by ALL production
53299 tons of SUPPLIES consumed by ALL production

34434 MANPOWER recruited in 3826 manpower centers (0 were local, 24335 available)
0 MANPOWER recruited locally in 0 isolated manpower centers

__________________________________________
HIWI

2649 Hiwis recruited in 1273 manpower centers
418 Hiwis recruited from the pool of captured men


Numbers in bold is what you have available for East Front.

Since production of resources must cover all production (West+East) it didn't make sense to have some BUILT numbers show entire production and some only limited production for the East Front.

edit: in case of Hiwis first number is affected by East Front multiplier, but you see only the final value ("available"); second number is not affected by East Front multiplier, so you get all Hiwis from that source.




Stelteck -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:56:34 AM)

Ok thanks you it make sense now !!!




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/16/2017 8:58:34 AM)

Updated with Hiwi information.




RoflCopter4 -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 6:29:24 AM)

I did the math on the actual German manpower production for each year a while back, by counting up all of the German, Polish, and Czech manpower centers and just multiplying them by the manpower modifier and the percentage to the eastern front (in addition to the 10% modifier on Polish and Czech troops). For some reason I decided to write the little script I used in Mathematica, but anyway here it is:

manpower[yearin_, germantotal_: 1630] := Module[
{   year = yearin,
    german = {germantotal, 0, 0},
    czech = {143, 0, 0},
    poland = {434, 0, 0},
    mult = {7, 8, 9, 6, 7},
    usage = {0.75, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.65},
    total = 0
},
    Which[year == 41, yearint = 1,
        year == 42, yearint = 2,
        year == 43, yearint = 3,
        year == 44, yearint = 4,
        year == 45, yearint = 5,
        True, yearint = 1
    ];
    german[[2]] = (german[[1]]*mult[[yearint]]);
    czech[[2]] = (czech[[1]]*mult[[yearint]]);
    poland[[2]] = (poland[[1]]*mult[[yearint]]);
      
    german[[3]] = (german[[2]]*usage[[yearint]]);
    czech[[3]] = (czech[[2]]*(usage[[yearint]]*0.1));
    poland[[3]] = (poland[[2]]*(usage[[yearint]]*0.1));
      
    total = german[[3]] + czech[[3]] + poland[[3]]
]




Anyway, assuming the size of German manpower centers and the multipliers haven't changed since I wrote that, the results are:

Year	German Manpower
41	8,860.43
42	10,801.3
43	10,632.5
44	6,075.72
45	7,679.04


Pretty pathetic, huh?




Stelteck -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 7:09:26 AM)

Thanks a lot for the info.

It looks really low while we see the german army numbers growing during 1942 and 1943 in most game. But probably the grow of german army is more a consequence of new units coming out of the blue instead of replacements.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 7:13:49 AM)

I can provide current multipliers from the code if you wish.

Yes, we have to remember that reinforcements are "free" manpower, from the "western" allowance. On the other hand withdrawals are extra manpower lost.

Indeed, armies may grow because (maybe) losses in combat are too low. One day I need to run some comparisons of WitE vs Dupuy loss model for the same combat setups. But that requires writing an app to do it, and mine is in pretty early stages.




Stelteck -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 7:47:54 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael
On the other hand withdrawals are extra manpower lost.


I wonder for the "withdrawals" if it is possible, and a common tactic for german players, to set the TOE of units "soon to be withdraw" to 20% in order to minimize the manpower cut.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 8:02:29 AM)

No, because their withdrawal will be delayed until they will refit to 75% or 80% (don't remember exact number). They are placed frozen and are treated as being on refit on western map border.




Stelteck -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 8:08:42 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

No, because their withdrawal will be delayed until they will refit to 75% or 80% (don't remember exact number). They are placed frozen and are treated as being on refit on western map border.


Thanks for the explanation.




MrBlizzard -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 8:58:41 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RoflCopter4

I did the math on the actual German manpower production for each year a while back, by counting up all of the German, Polish, and Czech manpower centers and just multiplying them by the manpower modifier and the percentage to the eastern front (in addition to the 10% modifier on Polish and Czech troops). For some reason I decided to write the little script I used in Mathematica, but anyway here it is:

manpower[yearin_, germantotal_: 1630] := Module[
{   year = yearin,
    german = {germantotal, 0, 0},
    czech = {143, 0, 0},
    poland = {434, 0, 0},
    mult = {7, 8, 9, 6, 7},
    usage = {0.75, 0.8, 0.7, 0.6, 0.65},
    total = 0
},
    Which[year == 41, yearint = 1,
        year == 42, yearint = 2,
        year == 43, yearint = 3,
        year == 44, yearint = 4,
        year == 45, yearint = 5,
        True, yearint = 1
    ];
    german[[2]] = (german[[1]]*mult[[yearint]]);
    czech[[2]] = (czech[[1]]*mult[[yearint]]);
    poland[[2]] = (poland[[1]]*mult[[yearint]]);
      
    german[[3]] = (german[[2]]*usage[[yearint]]);
    czech[[3]] = (czech[[2]]*(usage[[yearint]]*0.1));
    poland[[3]] = (poland[[2]]*(usage[[yearint]]*0.1));
      
    total = german[[3]] + czech[[3]] + poland[[3]]
]




Anyway, assuming the size of German manpower centers and the multipliers haven't changed since I wrote that, the results are:

Year	German Manpower
41	8,860.43
42	10,801.3
43	10,632.5
44	6,075.72
45	7,679.04


Pretty pathetic, huh?


Nice calculations! So it seems that Huston we have a problem!![:)]
Multipliers have changed since your calculations, but not so much, now should be:
1941 :9
1941 :8
1943 :8
1944 :6
1945 :7


So there could be something wrong somewhere (in game? In your calculations? In my head? [:D] ):
We can see from logistic report that axis manpower available per turn is more than 20k in 1942.
If only 10k is for Germany (from your calculations) it means than more than 10k is available for other axis powers (Hungary, Romania, Italy, Finland and Slovakia)!!! But these were small countries ( except Italy that anyway contributes only for 10% to eastern front).
Another clue is the disabled manpower returning available each turn: other Axis countries all together weight only 25% of Germany!
So recapping, it seems impossible that every turn Axis has more than 20k new manpower when only 10k is produced by Germany [&:]







morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 9:08:40 AM)

Axis allies (except Italy) are not subject to eastern front multipliers, so they have full manpower available. It can be seen in the game that Hungarian manpower grows during the early game when they have little units on the front. By 1943 they probably have 100k+ in the pool.
Also, Germany get HiWi manpower.




MrBlizzard -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:25:24 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael

Axis allies (except Italy) are not subject to eastern front multipliers, so they have full manpower available. It can be seen in the game that Hungarian manpower grows during the early game when they have little units on the front. By 1943 they probably have 100k+ in the pool.
Also, Germany get HiWi manpower.


I don't have the game here so I use an approximation, population instead of manpower centers
Population contribution to manpower:
Germany 90 Mln * 75% = 67,5 mln
Romania 20 mln
Finland 3,7 mln
Ungary 9,2 Mln
Slovakia 2,6 mln
Italy 44 * 10% = 4,4 mln

So Germany 67,5 vs other Axis 39,9 This should be the proportion more or less
If in one turn you get more than 20k manpower available and only 10k goes to Germany it seems there is something strange, or not? [:)]
PS Germany should get 40% manpower more than other Axis countries, not less then them




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:32:58 AM)

Data from the game, June 22nd 1941, Manpower "factories"
Germany 1630
Finland 74
Italy 906
Rumania 272
Hungary 238
Slovakia 52
Czech 143
Poland 434 (German occupied part)




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:35:18 AM)

altered by East Front and occupation modifiers we get:
Germany 1222 + 10 (Czech) + 32 (Poland) = 1264
Finland 74
Italy 90
Rumania 272
Hungary 238
Slovakia 52

Germany should get roughly 63% of recruited manpower per turn (1264/(1264+726))




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:44:47 AM)

With empty pools after T1, on T2 during logistics phase before replacements the pools had the following size:
Germany 8966
Finland 666
Italy 814
Rumania 2448
Hungary 2142
Slovakia 468
... so all Allies: 6538

German manpower forms 58% of the pool. This can fluctuate because values are rounded randomly per city (1.25 has 25% chance to result in 2, 75% chance to result in 1), so it's not far of the rough estimate of 63%.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:49:34 AM)

Disclaimer: it all boils down to how the cities were coded in game data long time ago. Perhaps there are more knowledgeable people here.

For example, I guess that the difference between Hungary and Rumania is smaller in the game, because it takes into account territory that was ceded to Hungary between 1939 and Barbarossa, while those totals that MrBlizzard provided look like data from 1939.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:54:40 AM)

BTW

Manpower production multipliers are:
7,8,9,6,7 for Germany
9,9,9,10,10 for Axis allies
50, 40, 35, 30, 15 for Soviet Union

East front percentage is:
75,80,70,60,65 for Germany
10,20,30 for Italy

...so RoflCopter4 has correct parameters in his script.

This does not include bonus manpower from HiWis (both recruited from cities and from captured units), as well as bonus manpower from reinforcements, as well as manpower lost with withdrawing units.
Finally there will be returns from disabled which grow in time to be a serious source of manpower.




MrBlizzard -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 10:57:03 AM)

Thanks Morvael great explanation!
So, if I catch it correctly, new manpower recruited and available for Axis in logistic report (production section), in turn two should be 8966+6538 ?




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 11:03:28 AM)

Sample from GC43 on turn 10 (AI vs AI)

11261 from disabled
2718 Hiwis from cities
154 Hiwis from captured

Including transfers German pool has grown by 28988 before replacements.




RoflCopter4 -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 11:11:51 AM)

EDIT: You posted about the same time I posted this. Someone above mentioned that the modifiers were 9,8,8,6,7 rather than what I used. Apparently I had it right with 7,8,9,6,7 all along. I made this post to show the "updated" values with the given modifiers, but since they were wrong then this post is totally pointless. Too bad I can't delete it. I'll just remove the chart I posted and leave the second half of the post intact, including the question at the end.

********************************************************************

The reason I like Mathematica, by the way, rather than using something a little saner like Python, is just how easy it is to do stuff like making that chart. It's as simple as

years = {41, 42, 43, 44, 45};
mpGrid = Grid@Transpose@{years, manpower /@ years};
ReplacePart[mpGrid, 1 -> Prepend[First@mpGrid, {"Year", "Manpower"}]]

Anyway, do the values I posted above look about appropriate? I'm sure that with access to the actual code of the game there must be some more direct way of figuring these values out.

Also, I have no idea why this forum software wants to leave such a massive gap between "code" and normal text. Kind of annoying.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 11:22:52 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrBlizzard

Thanks Morvael great explanation!
So, if I catch it correctly, new manpower recruited and available for Axis in logistic report (production section), in turn two should be 8966+6538 ?



Now I see there is a reporting bug. This line:
30481 MANPOWER recruited in 3749 manpower centers (0 were local, 20295 available)
is not taking into account reduction of Polish and Czech manpower, because this is done at later stage, when the pools are transferred. So this number is too high, because it counts 100% of Polish and Czech production, not 7%.

8966+6538 is more accurate, but I don't think you can get to those values as I can. I will of course fix that reporting issue.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 11:32:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RoflCopter4

The reason I like Mathematica, by the way, rather than using something a little saner like Python, is just how easy it is to do stuff like making that chart. It's as simple as

Also, I have no idea why this forum software wants to leave such a massive gap between "code" and normal text. Kind of annoying.


Kind of like Streaming API in Java. Would be good to learn it one day. So I can't verify your numbers well, hopefully they will agree with data I have provided for T2 of GC1941.

Yes, code tag works bad. See what you get when the block will be too big - overflow over post text, so you have to add blank lines to compensate... I prefer quote unless the fragment is small, and I need to ensure all formatting is retained.




morvael -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 11:51:19 AM)

Fixed report:
quote:

25670 MANPOWER recruited in 3749 manpower centers (0 were local, 15388 available)





MrBlizzard -> RE: German manpower production (11/22/2017 12:40:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: morvael


quote:

ORIGINAL: MrBlizzard

Thanks Morvael great explanation!
So, if I catch it correctly, new manpower recruited and available for Axis in logistic report (production section), in turn two should be 8966+6538 ?



Now I see there is a reporting bug. This line:
30481 MANPOWER recruited in 3749 manpower centers (0 were local, 20295 available)
is not taking into account reduction of Polish and Czech manpower, because this is done at later stage, when the pools are transferred. So this number is too high, because it counts 100% of Polish and Czech production, not 7%.

8966+6538 is more accurate, but I don't think you can get to those values as I can. I will of course fix that reporting issue.

Great! Happy to help improving this wonderful game [:)]




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