warspite1 -> RE: CFNA 1940-43 devoncop (Axis) vs warspite1 (CW) (4/22/2018 8:18:31 AM)
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ORIGINAL: 700851McCall What would a decisive victory have been for Rommel historically? I'd say that if he had secured all ports on the North African coast, and had fully interdicted the Suez canal, that would have been it. The British would have fought on in the Middle East but Rommel would have done all that could possibly be expected from him, in anyone's wildest dreams. warspite1 The fact was, in my opinion, he could not achieve a decisive victory - and that was not what he was tasked with. His role - at least initially - was to shore up the Italians and stop the loss of North Africa. He chose to ignore those orders and everyone got carried away with the prospect of conquering Egypt. This became a drain on resources the Germans could not afford. Why couldn't he achieve a decisive victory? The war in Europe was to be decided in the east. Even if Rommel had kicked the British out of Egypt and interdicted Suez - then what? It was recognised pre-war that if Italy were the enemy then the Mediterranean would be closed to through traffic. Suez would assume less importance and the Cape would have to take up the strain. That is what happened - especially after the entry of the Luftwaffe. In such a scenario the British would fight on from East Africa/Middle East. Perversely the loss of the Med, while a blow from a morale and prestige viewpoint, would actually have saved the RN a lot of losses that were incurred in trying to keep Malta in the war. The loss of oil would not have made that much difference - and would be unusable to the Axis. An unknown is what effect would this have on Turkey? But if Rommel didn't achieve victory in Egypt until 1942, it was probably too late for the Turks to think the war in the east was a foregone conclusion and so risk entry. Victory in Egypt would not have freed up large numbers of Axis troops either as the British and the Commonwealth would fight on and Rommel would have an ever expanding front line. India would assume an ever more important role as a base and no doubt the US would increase their commitment there accordingly.
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