RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (Full Version)

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Bert Blitzkrieg -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 5:56:25 PM)

I'm sceptical. We only know about the things that indeed have come out. I doubt there were any journalists present in the staffrooms.



thewood1 -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 8:16:46 PM)

Of course not. All I am saying is that government announcements and spokespeople are eventually smoked out about the truth. The US press, for all its faults, loves sniffing out government propaganda.



ultradave -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 9:56:56 PM)

They do indeed. And when they feel they are having smoke blown at them, they turn into sharks in chum filled waters. The real story may not be available immediately but it usually comes out.



BrianinMinnie -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/17/2018 10:53:27 PM)

One of the many interesting aspects of the West vs the East, is the willingness of the West’s people to discuss its mistakes or errors, wrongs or misjudgments. This I believe allows for the education of one’s beliefs in relation to what’s good or bad, right or wrong, about its people’s or Governments actions.

This doesn’t always equate to the West’s people or Governments doing the right thing or acting responsibly in relation to the rest of the worlds beliefs or needs, but hopefully it balances its misdeeds with good ones.

I will say, America has been wrong about stuff. Admit it, own up, learn lesson, move on.

I will also say America has been right about stuff. Congrats, slap back, take bow, move on.

That also goes for all the rest of the Nations on this spinning rock.

History has/will show the truth.

Currently in Russia and China, complaining openly against the party in charge isn’t recommended if ones interested in a fruitful and happy life, one can end up getting the “flu” or “slipping\falling” off a balcony or such, or maybe being whisked away in the middle of the night by the leader for life’s minions.

Here, one can bitch about Trump or Obama, and move on.

Watching the Russian Ministry of Defense rattle off the official line on the Syrian strikes is laughable…………. until we watch FOX News, basically doing a similar job about the current Administration’s admirable efforts vs the most recent past administration’s perceived “tyranny”.

And I’m still waiting to hear China claim Minamitori Island as being “within” the South China Sea.

Obviously, I follow the line that liberals control all other major news sources, brainwashing 55% of America into not being fair and balanced but I come here and a few other places to continue being educated to what the outside world’s Military Gamers think.

I would counter that the non-FOX major media outlets typically spend their time “reacting” to the actions or deeds of the Right, then after being told they’re snowflakes and too PC in complaining about narcissist, misogynist, hateful, corrupt, intolerant actions and words, respond incredulously with video, tape and text examples of said actions, only to be told its “Fake News”.

Interesting stuff, and a very Interest place America is nowadays.

Will the strikes against Syria solve any major issues? I doubt it. do I support it? I guess. Gassing folks is bad. The trolls here would say it won’t do any good, then other trolls here say it’s the perfect answer to the problem. Based on how it’s been working out since long before I’ve been born, I have no clue.

But for now, I won’t be persecuted for jabbering about it.

Back to gaming.



guanotwozero -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 12:32:04 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BrianinMinnie
Will the strikes against Syria solve any major issues? I doubt it. do I support it? I guess. Gassing folks is bad. The trolls here would say it won’t do any good, then other trolls here say it’s the perfect answer to the problem. Based on how it’s been working out since long before I’ve been born, I have no clue.


It seems clear they're only meant to be punitive wrt Chemical Weapons usage, not to change any dynamic of the civil war. The reasoning is that it's very risky to allow CWs to become commonplace in Syria and elsewhere, so better to try to nip it in the bud early when limited strikes can be effective.

Will this recent strike suffice? Who knows. But if it's accompanied with the believable threat of further strikes, then it has a good chance. Replacing expensive infrastructure is something most governments dislike, let alone one with a huge war budget.

The last scenario of punitive strikes before Syria was Serbia/Kosovo, and that did work well.



Dysta -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 7:23:33 AM)

In 2012, Syria did purchase and equipped some Pantsir-S1 point defense SPAAG, which is somehow becomes a missing memory or misquoted to be used by Russians along with S-400.

Right now, Syria's state media reported how Pantsir will protect some assets from allies' air strikes, and immediately quoted by Sputnik:

https://sputniknews.com/military/201804171063644024-pantsir-top-facts/

It is a very robust AA defense and itself has good FCR to track stealthy missiles at vicinity. Under the most opmistic scenario, 9 units of Pantsirs will have 108 57E6 missiles against 103-107 cruise missiles, excluding the autocannons. So stopping 71 missiles will give this system around 70% of PoH.

It's unlikely, since Syria does not have that much Pantsirs in Damascus, yet it's quite telling if 70% hit did work as intended.



ExNusquam -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 8:38:44 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero

It seems clear they're only meant to be punitive wrt Chemical Weapons usage, not to change any dynamic of the civil war. The reasoning is that it's very risky to allow CWs to become commonplace in Syria and elsewhere, so better to try to nip it in the bud early when limited strikes can be effective.


This is the real reason - it normalizes the fact that the US will use kinetics in response to WMD use on civilians. Imagine how much worse Darfur or Rwanda would have been had chemical weapons been in play.

quote:

ORIGINAL: Dysta
It's unlikely, since Syria does not have that much Pantsirs in Damascus, yet it's quite telling if 70% hit did work as intended.

Did you read the Russian military statement I posted? They literally listed missiles fired and successful engagements for every system in Syria. SA-22 reportedly had 24 out of 25 successful engagements (96% Pk). Overall Pk of all SAM systems was 63%. I think those numbers are BS, but that's what the Russians are reporting.



Filitch -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 8:57:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: ExNusquam

Did you read the Russian military statement I posted? They literally listed missiles fired and successful engagements for every system in Syria. SA-22 reportedly had 24 out of 25 successful engagements (96% Pk). Overall Pk of all SAM systems was 63%. I think those numbers are BS, but that's what the Russians are reporting.


Little adjustment. There are 23 of 25 engagements in Russian-language version.



guanotwozero -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 10:37:46 PM)

If there had been a high rate of engagement successes, then the Syrian media should be showing off the debris ad nauseam. Triumphant soldiers standing on remains of missiles, giving v-signs. But they're not - only fakes so far.

So why no real footage yet?



SunlitZelkova -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 10:50:15 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero

If there had been a high rate of engagement successes, then the Syrian media should be showing off the debris ad nauseam. Triumphant soldiers standing on remains of missiles, giving v-signs. But they're not - only fakes so far.

So why no real footage yet?


It's an assumption that they would show such footage? Its not like they have a policy where they must show triumphant soldiers standing over debris of enemy vehicles after every battle. Nor must they show debris.

Someone posted something earlier about how pieces would scatter all over the place, and would be difficult to find en masse. Maybe that is the reason?

They may still be in the process of trying to find wreckage for all we know.



guanotwozero -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/18/2018 11:59:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: FlyForLenin
It's an assumption that they would show such footage?

Yes - otherwise they wouldn't bother to show us all those fakes. This indicates they really want to convince people of shootdowns. Real evidence is the best way.

quote:


Someone posted something earlier about how pieces would scatter all over the place, and would be difficult to find en masse. Maybe that is the reason?

They may still be in the process of trying to find wreckage for all we know.

Maybe. But as these missiles fly low except for a terminal pop-up, a shootdown far from target would not be scattered far. A shootdown next to target would be scattered, but easy to find.

Which also brings up the question - how would radars engage low-flying missiles in hills? W Syria is very hilly. Maybe a lucky shot when a missile flew close to a MANPAD/electro-optical SAM? Debris would be sure available if that happened.

As time goes on, I find it harder to believe the shootdown scenario.



Dysta -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/19/2018 12:18:31 AM)

Maybe an anti-salvaging measure? If something so advanced were launched is going to risk to get by Russians, then why it didn't employ self-destruct features? An intercepted or seduced cruise missile should be immediately scuttle into shards rather than just crashed with remains.

I am not talking about the evidence must be as a whole as RQ-170 in Iran, but a largely scattered fragments of steel and aluminum would hardly call an evidence of interception either. Especially the electronics are within the warhead, it will be immediately vaporized to avoid tech leaks.



guanotwozero -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/19/2018 12:32:56 AM)

Maybe, but I would have thought some recognisable fragments should survive.

BTW interesting report by Daily Beast here, based on Pentagon claims.



Filitch -> RE: War Drums Beating in Syria (4/19/2018 8:00:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero
Which also brings up the question - how would radars engage low-flying missiles in hills? W Syria is very hilly.

Looks like missiles do not always keeps constant altitude at terrain-following flight, but in complex circumstances (Syrian cross-country territory is such case) can flies about hundred meters. If you look videos from Damascus you can notice that missiles flies enough high, not at dozens of meters.

quote:

ORIGINAL: guanotwozero
BTW interesting report by Daily Beast here, based on Pentagon claims.


quote:

ORIGINAL: thedailybeast.com
It is hardly surprising that Syria's late-Cold War-era air defense systems

It's all you need know about expertise of author of this article



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