Barbarosa timing (Full Version)

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bfcj -> Barbarosa timing (5/24/2018 12:39:28 PM)

I have a question on Axis strategy. My assumption was that it would behoove Germany to invade the west, and then Russia the following year, ASAP, ie, the first non-snow turn of the year. Even if they weren't fully deployed yet. For Russia this was based on my understanding that Germany's delaying Barbarosa to clean up the Balkans was a big factor in their not capturing Moscow in `41. That, and I'd think a priority would be to make as large a dent as possible in the Russian ware machine before the US enters the war and they have other issues to consider. However, since I've started PBEM I've noticed Axis players waiting well into the summer to get their forces in perfect order before starting. They of course can't take Moscow in `41, but have remarkable success against Russia nonetheless. I remember reading a comment from Gary Grigsby that Germany had to take Moscow in `41 in order to have any chance of defeating Russia, but that doesn't seem to be the case here. Anyway, just wondering if this was a gameism or if my strategy was flawed.



KorutZelva -> RE: Barbarosa timing (5/24/2018 1:25:15 PM)

The thinking is that the sooner the USSR is activated, the sooner the Axis surrender its mpp advantage. The only situation where I'd advise going in early in the year would be if the allies managed to sneak up a couple of diplo hits on you and you want to strike before their tech chits catch up.



bfcj -> RE: Barbarosa timing (5/24/2018 1:53:57 PM)

But does it really change the mpp balance? Russia is a memeber of the Allies, even if war hasn't been yet declared. And delaying gives them more time to prepare. Not arguing against it, just trying to better understand it.



KorutZelva -> RE: Barbarosa timing (5/24/2018 4:01:18 PM)

It does in part because it also stifle USA entry into the war.

The USA doesn't accrue incremental allied leaning until the Russians are in it + if war was declared in June or before, it's gets a further 6% allied leaning boost.



LordOfPants -> RE: Barbarosa timing (5/24/2018 6:38:00 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: bfcj
But does it really change the mpp balance? Russia is a memeber of the Allies, even if war hasn't been yet declared. And delaying gives them more time to prepare. Not arguing against it, just trying to better understand it.


Before entering the war, Russia only gets a fraction of her MPPs based on mobilization %, declaring war pushes that to 100% immediately. Before declaring war, Russia gets 0 MPPs from lend-lease, after declaring war US/UK can send money, and some of it is doubled in value. That makes a huge difference in income levels.



bfcj -> RE: Barbarosa timing (5/24/2018 10:43:58 PM)

Okay that makes sense. Game-wise anyway. Still not convinced that it would have been better historically. I'm playing a game now in which the Axis player hasn't attacked as of mid-August. I guess I should experiment with that against the AI.

Thanks for the info!




Elessar2 -> RE: Barbarosa timing (5/25/2018 9:05:44 PM)

You still have weather to consider-all that fall mud means the blitz will quickly grind to a halt, few Russian units will die, and they will then quickly catch up in unit density at least.


I do want to comment, after winning my 1st AI game as the Axis (the Fall Weiss II scenario note)-it's very hard, given even optimal play and favorable weather, to reach the historical line by the date of the Russian counter-offensive in December. Each town taken will require a siege of varying difficulty, then you have to wait for the supply to go back up before you can move onwards-and there's TONS of towns. Combine that with refitting and reinforcing, and if you can get to the gates of Leningrad and Moscow then my hat's off to you.



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