RE: T65 (Full Version)

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xhoel -> RE: T65 (3/5/2020 8:28:54 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

It is difficult to predict, especially about the future!

Thanks for the other explanations and can't wait to see the next instalments of the Moscow operation.



True and it may very well be that Moscow doesn't fall before the mud hits. The update should be up in the next couple of days so stay tuned!


quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

True, yet the Soviets have the same problem with manpower and maybe other categories, yet the regenerate quicker. I wouldn't wait until spring/summer with a continued offensive except if you are at risk of running the truck fleet to the ground.

The Volga salient between Moscow and Stalingrad is clear terrain, has a few manpower centres and a good rail network plus you seperate the Northern and Southern Soviet front.
You can't make Omelette without breaking a few eggs!



True, but the Soviets are currently only constrained by the manpower of which they recover around 110.000 men a turn so they should be fine as the time goes by. Trucks no longer being a major factor will help the Soviets too since it means they can mechanize their army a lot more and not care about truck losses.

I don't have any plans for switching on the defensive entirely, just saying that there won't be any major offensive operations like the Moscow one. I know that until mid 1943 the Germans can still go on the offensive and I plan to make good use of that. On 1944 that would be more or less unimaginable and 1945 will be a nightmare.

Yes, that seems like the main place to strike to me. There are urban centers close to the front and they can be grabbed without too much of a fight hopefully and the terrain will help. We still have some time till the winter comes. Most of the planning will be done during the mud turns, so I don't wanna plan ahead. Changes to the situation may change the goals.



xhoel -> T66 (3/9/2020 1:04:00 PM)

T66, 17th of September-24th of September 1942.

Finnish AG.

The Finish sector remains calm. The Soviets have abandoned their positions on the Mologa river and the 122nd division has crossed it and positioned itself on the defense here. 1 infantry division has been pulled from the sector and sent east to support the push of AGN.

Positions at the start of the turn:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/y52JUYV.jpg[/img]

Positions after Axis moves:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/eGCDWEy.jpg[/img]

AGN

The pocket in the north held and the enemy has abandoned 2 strongly held positions near the Volga but has not shifted their reserves south. The bulk of their guard units and of their Cavalry remain on the front, presumably because the enemy fears an advance at this point towards Ivanovo.

The Soviets have reinforced the Nerl river banks and have prepared defenses in depth to prevent a crossing. With the southern and eastern sectors heavily defended the enemy has left the sector between them lightly defended. Here is exactly where we aim to push.

The 9th Army was immediately ordered to clean up the pocket and push south east, to open an avenue for the Panzers to break through to the open ground. After a powerful attack, the 2 Soviet Rifle Divisions surrendered, netting around 17k POWs. The attack against the strongest held enemy position (22=56) was successful even though it came at a great cost and required the commitment of 7 infantry divisions.

The 3rd Panzer Army which has been involved in constant heavy fighting during all this time and has rarely had the chance to create the same successful pockets as the 2nd and 1st Panzer Armies is finally given a chance to shine.
With the road open, these units moved south clearing the weak Soviet forces in their path. The armored spearheads managed to penetrate 40 miles and are now 50 miles away from the city of Vladimir.
This advance presents the biggest risk so far to Moscow as the 3rd Panzer Army could outflank the Soviet defenses on the Nerl and link up with the spearheads of Army Group Center trapping the whole Kalinin Front defending Moscow and the surrounding areas.

Heavy counterattacks are expected next week, as the enemy will undoubtedly react to this development. To help with the situation, both Panzer Divisions from the northern sector have been ordered south and have been refueled by air and both have received around 65% of the fuel they need.

Fliegerkorps VIII has been ordered to fly interdiction to hinder any massive Soviet movement and to also fly ground support sorties.

AGN start of the week:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Yh0MJ0T.jpg[/img]

AGN during the fighting:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/N3gxjz6.jpg[/img]

AGN after German moves:

[image]local://upfiles/57112/B0096A3005BF4CDBA1957822A85114A8.jpg[/image]



xhoel -> RE: T66 (3/9/2020 1:11:45 PM)

AGC

The enemy has reinforced their positions near Kovrov and Vladimir. Rifle divisions have been stripped by the Ryazan sector to help the defenses further north. Due to developments from AGN, AGC is ordered to push north west, and reach Vladimir while at the same time taking Kovrov and denying the enemy the rail connection for an evacuation and in order to cut off their last supply line.

2nd Army engaged in heavy fighting this week but they managed to push back the Soviets in multiple places, the most important one being the (31=80) hex. We overdid most of the attacks because of incorrect intelligence which predicted stronger Soviet forces than were actually encountered.

With the assistance of elements from the 2nd Panzer Army, we have finally managed to take Kovrov and the 18th Mot Division and the 4th Panzer Division have secured the strategic town. This means that the Soviets cannot evacuate their forces by rail and that their supply situation will worsen in the next days and weeks.
We have also reached the outskirts of Vladimir and the banks of the Klyazma. Our troops have even managed to get a platoon across the river, directly north of Vladimir.

Meanwhile, troops in the Ryazan sector are gathering for operation Tiger Biss. 3 Infantry Corps and 2 Panzer Corps are assembling in the forested and swampy area and should begin their offensive next week.

The enemy has not done any recon whatsoever of the area, and if the trend continues in the coming days the Soviets will be up for a bad surprise. A success of Operation Tiger Biss would mean an encirclement of Moscow and the destruction of the whole Soviet forces which are defending the capital.

This is a major gamble, as enemy recon flown this week may collapse the whole plan and may mean that Moscow remains in enemy hands until November.
Further to the south, the front remains static. Soviet forces facing the 2nd Hungarian Army look very strong. The enemy may be planning a distracting push here to force us to divert forces but recon and intelligence have cum up empty so far.

AGC start of the week:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/di9pQsF.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/MbUcizY.jpg[/img]

AGC after German moves:

[image]local://upfiles/57112/11B26E8C53714405B5C780004B7085C1.jpg[/image]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/QLDdTMA.jpg[/img]

Tambov sector after:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/0MpoVeU.jpg[/img]

2nd Hungarian Army sector after:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/mICkso1.jpg[/img]

Moscow front overview after Axis moves:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/stH7efZ.jpg[/img]




xhoel -> RE: T66 (3/9/2020 1:21:15 PM)

AGS

The Soviets have carpeted the Stalingrad sector with whatever units they had available it seems. However both intelligence and recon report that most of these units are of low quality and won't be able to hinder a strong push. This is also assisted by interdiction from the IV and V Fliegerkorps which hindered the Soviets from reinforcing the sector strongly.
The week begins with enlarging the corridor on the Volga. The Soviets forces here are pushed back after a strong attack by 3 divisions. We lose 26 bombers to enemy air interceptors even though they were well escorted. With this task completed, our armored units push back Soviet forces closest to the bridgehead to allow safe crossings for the infantry divisions. Attacks continue in the north as Soviet formations keep faltering to attacks from the III Panzer Corps.

At the same time, the 6th Army launches heavy attacks west of Stalingrad to clear the positions and allow the rest of the 1st Panzer Army to move. After heavy attacks, supported by heavy bombing from the IV and V Fliegerkorps, the armored units have secured Dubovka and reached the Volga meeting up with the 3rd Panzer Division and sealing the Stalingrad pocket.

A testament to the heavy fighting is the number of AFVs lost by the 1st Panzer Army: 51 tanks and 11 AC and SPs were destroyed while many more AFVs were damaged in the process.

Inside the pocket there are 3 Tank Brigades, 6 Rifle Divisions (low TOE and quality), 2 Guards Rifle divisions, 3 Rifle Brigades, 1 Motorized Brigade, 2 Rifle Corps (one of them is a Guard formation), 1 Fortified Region, 1 Light Gun Brigade as well as 3 Army Hqs: 38th Army (GP Konstantin Rokossovsky), 9th Army (GM Vasily Yushkevich) and the 52nd Army (GL Ivan Fedyuninsky).
This totals to around 150k men (average estimate) trapped in the pocket.

The enemy may breach the pocket as it is not air tight yet. The Soviets have plenty of reserves nearby and we have lost track of 4 Tank Corps which where in the sector a week ago. Hopefully the pocket will hold and the battle for taking Stalingrad proper can begin.

Stalingrad sector start of the week:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/rSzrRjh.jpg[/img]

Stalingrad during fighting:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Qo8JGhL.jpg[/img]

Stalingrad after Axis moves:

[image]local://upfiles/57112/BF46D41B468B45C2AB060B2D81C6655B.jpg[/image]

Battle on the Volga banks circled in black above. Notice the heavy air losses even though they were escorted:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/iEUTpDU.jpg[/img]

Soviet commanders and their HQs trapped in the pocket:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ordvMRT.jpg[/img]

Further to the south, the enemy has pulled back once more. The Soviets have even abandoned the port of Tuapse. The 17th Army is on their heels and 2 Corps have been positioned ready for attacks next week. The Rum. Cavalry Corps pushes a 30 miles gap in the Soviet defenses.

We are slowly making progress in the Caucasus mountain range as well, as the mountain divisions are marching towards Sukhumi.

Caucasus sector start of the week:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ywD6twx.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Tooj6ac.jpg[/img]

Caucasus sector after Axis moves:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ezWEEdp.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/ahgOKIb.jpg[/img]

AGS after Axis moves overview:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/Za33baI.jpg[/img]






xhoel -> RE: T66 (3/9/2020 1:37:46 PM)

Casualties and OOB

Casualties this week remained high for the enemy in terms of men lost. Around 78k were lost as irrecoverable casualties. AFV losses on our side were very heavy, a total of 228 from which 187 were tanks. The constant heavy losses in tanks and the failure of the industry to replenish these losses is leading to a lower combat capacity of the front line units. AFV pools for medium tanks are empty and many panzer divisions are fighting with 40% of their authorized tanks, of which only half is operational. The newly created 27th Panzer division arrived this week and has boarded trains bound for AGN, where they will join the 3rd Panzer Army. A look at their TOE also shows the lack of tanks in the pools. The division only has 30% of it's light and medium tanks available, making it a panzer division simply in name.

Ground Losses:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/644UYFR.jpg[/img]

Soviet losses detail:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/lp61bVv.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/dcJeAlw.jpg[/img]

27th Panzer Division TOE:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/GUGbTP9.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/WScTa9I.jpg[/img]

TOEs of Panzer divisions deployed as part of the 1st Panzer Army:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/up5hlpk.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/NCvDIIw.jpg[/img]

AFV production pools:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/n4VuPrE.jpg[/img]

Losses in the air were heavy as well, 155 aircraft lost on our side this week while the Soviet losses were relatively low, only 282 aircraft lost.

[img]https://i.imgur.com/MgzCvsM.jpg[/img]

OOB at the end of the week:

[img]https://i.imgur.com/DK99Pij.jpg[/img]



xhoel -> Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 2:01:22 PM)

Panzer TOE changes.

Since the start of September 1942, Panzer Divisions have received new TOEs, respectively the 42b and 42d Panzer Division TOEs. Both TOEs increase the amount of organic artillery that the Panzer Divisions have at their disposal. In both TOEs the number of Panzer IVGs is increased to 20 while Panzer IIIn are lowered by 1. The 42b reduces the number of Panzer IIIm to 90 (-15). This reduction in numbers is aimed at creating some surplus which will then be used by the 42d TOE, which prescribes an increase in the numbers of Panzer IIIm to 45 (+15), while at the same time reducing the numbers of the no longer in production Panzer 38(t)E from 65 to 45 (-20).

[img]https://i.imgur.com/oNadKma.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/K2eIly1.jpg[/img]

[image]local://upfiles/57112/EED3529AEA35431B910EC089900BA19E.jpg[/image]



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 3:05:45 PM)

Thanks for the overview screenshot. Strong operations at Moscow and Stalingrad, things go quicker than anticipated for a change.

[image]local://upfiles/54093/0F1D39EA8B0C4707983378C3F2BD49F1.jpg[/image]
Good news [:)]



Telemecus -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 3:07:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: EwaldvonKleist

Thanks for the overview screenshot.

Good news [:)]


Bad news - he can no longer be in the preferred command of a corps [:(]



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 3:11:55 PM)

But the pay is much better!



Telemecus -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 3:14:08 PM)

Is this also not the big boss' way of saying he expects you not to live?



EwaldvonKleist -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 3:14:36 PM)

Only if you get yourself encircled. It is a kind of "win or die" motivation.



Telemecus -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 3:17:21 PM)

I think the jump in pay is about to be cancelled out by the higher life insurance premiums ...



xhoel -> RE: Panzer TOE changes. (3/15/2020 8:14:03 PM)

@EvK: Indeed. Was the only turn during summer where operations were really fluid. Well deserved promotion of EvK, he has done outstanding work leading the 1st Panzer Army :D

@Telemecus: I wasn't intending for him to command a corps anyways ;)




HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: Update on the game state. (3/17/2020 2:46:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

@Vifee: It will continue in 1.12.03!

I sent the turn to Bitburger yesterday. We are continuing the game in the new patch. Expect updates soon!


This game was started in 11.3? You updated to 12.3? If that is the case will you not have the same situation that Model1950 had in one of his games? Have you noticed anything adverse?




xhoel -> RE: Update on the game state. (3/17/2020 3:09:41 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain


This game was started in 11.3? You updated to 12.3? If that is the case will you not have the same situation that Model1950 had in one of his games? Have you noticed anything adverse?



It started in 1.11.02, was eventually updated to 1.11.03 and now latest update was in 1.12.03. No, I have not had any problems like Model1950 had.

There are plenty of good changes but also a lot of problems in 1.12.03.

Positives:

+Exp bug fixed which means the Soviets can recover more easily and the Germans too after 1943.
+NR bug fixed.
+You can now see how many MPs are reduced by air interdiction.
+You can see how much supply/fuel was delivered by air if you click on the battle icon.
+Fuel Reqs for armored/motorized formations have almost doubled which nerfs air resupply.
+Air bases pull supply from cities, which makes the air war less of a pain in the ass to conduct.
+You can now see the max level of forts that can be build in a hex as well the reductions during combat due to pioneers and artillery.
+Soviet manpower multiplier increase.
+HQs and airbases do not magically disappear from pockets. Reworked retreat routine leads to less Soviet formations routing. This was a big one I noticed. In 1.11.03 units in certain positions would rout, now they just retreat 2 hexes deep which is a good change.

Negatives:

-Routing routine is all over the place. Units displace to retarded locations. Will be fixed in 1.12.04 from what I have heard.
-Shattering is happening more often due to the morale needed for it being 50 and below. Talked to morvael about it and he assured me that it will be fixed.
-Not possible to see isolated units. Will be fixed in 1.12.04.
-Retreating is not working as it should, leading to weird results but nothing game breaking. Will be fixed in 1.12.04.
-Trucks have become irrelevant which takes a fun aspect of the game out of play and also impacts realism.

This is all I can think of for now.



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: Update on the game state. (3/17/2020 4:15:56 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain


This game was started in 11.3? You updated to 12.3? If that is the case will you not have the same situation that Model1950 had in one of his games? Have you noticed anything adverse?



It started in 1.11.02, was eventually updated to 1.11.03 and now latest update was in 1.12.03. No, I have not had any problems like Model1950 had.

There are plenty of good changes but also a lot of problems in 1.12.03.

Positives:

+Exp bug fixed which means the Soviets can recover more easily and the Germans too after 1943.
+NR bug fixed.
+You can now see how many MPs are reduced by air interdiction.
+You can see how much supply/fuel was delivered by air if you click on the battle icon.
+Fuel Reqs for armored/motorized formations have almost doubled which nerfs air resupply.
+Air bases pull supply from cities, which makes the air war less of a pain in the ass to conduct.
+You can now see the max level of forts that can be build in a hex as well the reductions during combat due to pioneers and artillery.
+Soviet manpower multiplier increase.
+HQs and airbases do not magically disappear from pockets. Reworked retreat routine leads to less Soviet formations routing. This was a big one I noticed. In 1.11.03 units in certain positions would rout, now they just retreat 2 hexes deep which is a good change.

Negatives:

-Routing routine is all over the place. Units displace to retarded locations. Will be fixed in 1.12.04 from what I have heard.
-Shattering is happening more often due to the morale needed for it being 50 and below. Talked to morvael about it and he assured me that it will be fixed.
-Not possible to see isolated units. Will be fixed in 1.12.04.
-Retreating is not working as it should, leading to weird results but nothing game breaking. Will be fixed in 1.12.04.

This is all I can think of for now.


Thank you so much for the detailed changes.



xhoel -> Game over. (3/19/2020 12:23:25 AM)

Unfortunately my opponent Bitburger resigned on turn 66. I was surprised and disappointed by the resignation considering that we had only 3 more turns until mud and the Battle for Moscow was still open and we could be up for a nice Stalingrad siege but it is what it is. I will post some more detailed losses that I have from the CR export of turn 66 but other than that I can't post much since I can't access the turn (even though the email says you can view a playback of the final turn).

Thank you to Bitburger for being a top notch opponent and sticking with the game even when things were not in his favor. He is a great guy and will be looking forward to facing him again in battle.

Thank you to everyone who has read the AAR and has shown their support (or criticism).

Cheers!



joelmar -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 12:34:23 AM)

Sad to hear, there were interesting things going on. It has been an interesting journey, congrats for your AAR and to both opponents for the nice game.



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 12:43:39 AM)

Sorry to hear that Xhoel. I wish both of you the best in your next game.



Elessar2 -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 3:04:00 AM)

That Moscow pocket was a thing of beauty. [&o]



Bitburger -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 3:41:29 AM)

Xhoel has been an amazing opponent. Careful, skilled player, and a gentleman at all times. Anyone who plays him is luckier for the experience. Soviet players will know that this game was lost a while ago and though i was able to delay the outcome, i ran out of both time and units to prevent defeat. This game has taken almost a year and a half to get this far, and would take another 6 months to get to the final obvious outcome. Was a great read Xhoel and thanks very much for the game.



Telemecus -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 8:23:24 AM)

A lot of credit to bitburger for this game. Well done to both indeed.

It was started in v1.11 before changing over to v1.12. It would be interesting to see if the result would be different if it was v1.12 from the start?

Even if this is game over I hope you could still add to the AAR by what your plans were for the next few turns?



xhoel -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 12:17:09 PM)

@joelmar: There were interesting things going on indeed. However I do understand Bitburgers resignation. If the Soviets had had a bigger OOB and without the nasty exp bug that makes the return of many destroyed formations take so long, it was going to be a lost cause. The 1.12.03 patch came out too late. Had we switched to it in the summer of 1942 or maybe even spring, things would have looked much more different. Thank you for the kind words.

@HLYA: Thank you, looking forward to your continued game vs BrianG.

@Elessar2: Not a pocket yet, but If I had closed it, it would have been game over. A lot of units there and a lot of good ones as well. Thanks for the kind words though!

@Bitburger: Thank you very much! I can say the same thing about you Ron. Wonderful play, very skilled and very resilient. Thank you for a great game and I hope you enjoy reading the AAR. I am looking forward to play against you again. Maybe with a stable 1.12.04 like we talked about.

@Telemecus: Thank you very much! The result would have been much different if it had been started on 1.12 from the start indeed. Without the exp bug and with the new manpower multipliers, Bitburgers game of defending forward and counterattacking would have paid off a lot more.

I will add plans, including operation Tiger Biss, do a breakdown of losses and write my thoughts on the summer campaign. Like I said, because I cannot access the turn, I can't really provide more screenshots than what I have from turn 66, although I have quite a lot of screenshots that were not posted in the AAR.




HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 1:37:10 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: xhoel

If the Soviets had had a bigger OOB and without the nasty exp bug that makes the return of many destroyed formations take so long, it was going to be a lost cause. The 1.12.03 patch came out too late. Had we switched to it in the summer of 1942 or maybe even spring, things would have looked much more different.

@HLYA: Thank you, looking forward to your continued game vs BrianG.




Xhoel,

Yes, the experience bug was very difficult to play with. We started our games around the same time as yours with Bitburger so I can feel his pain. IMO Bitburger did a good job with what he had. Looking forward to your game with Bitburger again. He is a worthy opponent.

What turn did you upgrade to patch 12+?



xhoel -> RE: Game over. (3/19/2020 2:01:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

Xhoel,

Yes, the experience bug was very difficult to play with. We started our games around the same time as yours with Bitburger so I can feel his pain. IMO Bitburger did a good job with what he had. Looking forward to your game with Bitburger again. He is a worthy opponent.

What turn did you upgrade to patch 12+?


He did a fantastic job on the defense and I have nothing but praise for him for his conduct both on and off the field. Stay tuned, we might start a new game/AAR in the future once 1.12.04 stabilizes. It will be more late war focused though, maybe a Stalingrad to Berlin GC, since I honestly am bored of the same old 1941 start.

Upgrade happened on turn 65 Soviet.



king171717 -> RE: Game over. (4/5/2020 7:13:25 AM)

Really enjoyed this AAR!!

Thanks xhoel for providing such a high detail AAR that was a great to read! I really like when u did breakdowns of changes of divisions or how low your tanks where in your panzer divisions, etc.

Congrats on the win!



John B. -> RE: Game over. (4/6/2020 8:46:05 PM)

Thanks for the AAR. And congrats to both sides for a game well played between two gentlemen.



xhoel -> RE: Game over. (4/7/2020 1:53:03 PM)

Thanks for the kind words gents, really appreciate it! It was a pleasure writing the AAR. Due to a laptop issue I cannot access some files currently, but there will be a final update soon to conclude the whole thing (if I can fix things).



Stamb -> RE: Game over. (1/9/2022 7:57:37 PM)

Thanks for a great AAR!



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