November 15th, 1942 (Full Version)

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Anachro -> November 15th, 1942 (3/19/2019 2:58:41 PM)

November 15th, 1942

This it the current position of KB and its accompanying surface force lagging behind it. Whatever John is attempting to accomplish here, he is burning a lot of fuel doing it. I have some riff-raff transports to the east that might be in harms way (some with troops), but I will flank speed them further east.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/nOo7nVy.png[/image]



Bif1961 -> RE: November 15th, 1942 (3/19/2019 3:31:47 PM)

If the numbers of aircraft are right he has around 800 aircraft. I am sure are some float planes from CSs so the possible actual carrier aircraft might be closer to 750. This seems to be the zenith of the Japanese carrier arm and maybe a nice way to stay away from it but take the opportunity to do something meaningful elsewhere knowing where the full KB is located. I would suspect a landing on Palmyra and possible follow up with Christmas Island. I also suspect he will use Palmyra as a raiding base for the next few months to try and disrupt your current supply lines to NZ-OZ. Other than that I can't see the reason to conduct this operation other than the aforementioned spoiling attack to delay your eventual counter-offensive landings.



Anachro -> RE: November 15th, 1942 (3/19/2019 3:46:28 PM)

This is the zenith of Japanese CV reinforcements for now. He gets more carriers in '43 and I think based on his R&D efforts I should start seeing Jacks or Georges this coming year. As it is, for now my carriers are too far away to do anything. They are re-focusing elsewhere.



Bearcat2 -> RE: November 15th, 1942 (3/19/2019 8:15:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

This is the zenith of Japanese CV reinforcements for now. He gets more carriers in '43 and I think based on his R&D efforts I should start seeing Jacks or Georges this coming year. As it is, for now my carriers are too far away to do anything. They are re-focusing elsewhere.



Not including his 2 "Invincible" class CVL's which he is most likely converting to CV's, he can have over 900planes; he gets a Shokaku class in sept 42 along with the 2 Junyo and a couple of CVL's earlier.



Anachro -> RE: November 15th, 1942 (3/20/2019 5:31:03 PM)

@Bearcat Yup, this is what I'm worried about and why I'm looking for opportunities to cause attrition. I'd prefer such opportunities to be ones where he makes a slip and leaves part of his carriers exposed rather than the full KB.

In other news, another day, another John:

quote:

Good morning Sir.

I got the turn for yesterday but had a crazy, long day. Managed to nearly break my left ankle. Severe sprain but LOTS of pain. Have to go in today but want to get out of work ASAP and sit. Will tackle turn at that point.


This man goes through so much! [:D] I wouldn't have it any other way.



Anachro -> November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 6:27:40 AM)

November 16th, 1942

John continues a very deep raid eastward and now is closing in on my transports which he might suspect are there. Most aren't spotted, bu he does managed to get a 1/3 DL on a transport force carrying an artillery unit and Marine Defense Battalion. I will continue my flank speed away and hope John doesn't pursue. Knowing John, however, he will most likely pursue - perhaps he'll even flank speed. I'll probably split some boats to go flank northeast, southeast, and eastward. Besides KB, small DD TFs are seen west of Palmyra and southwest of Christmas Island. Though John might sink some xAKs and destroy some minor units if he pushes east, this seems like a waste of fuel to me.

Elsewhere, in India we manage to destroy the 1st Tank Division. Furthermore, our fighters do well in sweeps in the skies above Palmyra, lopsidedly shooting down a number of Japanese fighters. In Australia, we continue to bomb Normanton and destroy planes on the ground.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/NN0gRLf.jpg[/image]



Bif1961 -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 1:29:48 PM)

If he really has CVEs then his speed is not as great as it would be if he had CVLs and CVs only. He might not be able to catch your fleeing sighted merchants TF east of him if u do use flank speed. Like you said he is using a lot of fuel and unless he lands on Palmyra and takes it, then he will have wasted all that fuel for nothing and with the loses he took landing on Christmas Island you will end up with a positive VP from his foray.



paullus99 -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 2:56:40 PM)

So, he's actually passing PH, which puts him in a horrible position, should you sortie & cut off his path of retreat.

If he burns up a bunch of sorties on merchants, and then you pounce, he's screwed (again).



Anachro -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 3:39:23 PM)

I forgot to mention that another one of my subs took a shot at CV Hiyo and missed. As always. As for pouncing, I think my carriers are too far away, but at the moment I am probing Japanese nav search in the area.



JohnDillworth -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 5:06:14 PM)

If only John had once before over extended his carriers on silly raids and lost a bunch of carriers he would know better than to do this. If only



BBfanboy -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 5:22:52 PM)

I have long thought that John burns the candle too short between his business, his church, his family, the game (sometimes multiple games) and his AARs.

I suspect he does not have time to keep track of all the things he should and spends little time on land warfare because he doesn't have time and doesn't find it fun.
So he only has game time to do the one thing he really enjoys - raiding.



Anachro -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 6:29:39 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

If only John had once before over extended his carriers on silly raids and lost a bunch of carriers he would know better than to do this. If only


He should have lost 4 CVLs for his raid on Tahiti, but two of them seemed to have impenetrable armor.



paullus99 -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 7:14:01 PM)

Yeah, that's a defect of the mod, for sure. But, he definitely is a "no guts, no glory" kind of guy.

He could never handle playing Allied - its too boring.



Canoerebel -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 7:21:54 PM)

This is a fun discussion, since I've played John so often.

I hear you, Paullus. You're right, except for one thing. John can (and has) played the Allies early in the war. In the opening months, the Allies have the force distribution and combat ships to raid and strike, which (as you know) John loves. I don't think John has ever gotten more than six months into a game as an Allied player (though that might've been due to his opponent disappearing, for all I know).



Anachro -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 7:37:50 PM)

I don't know. Depending on the risks and decisions you make, early '42 can be full of guts and glory for an allied player. In this mod, that can extend into '43. Any '42 carrier battle is risky, such as my cavalier use of flank speed in my decisions to take on John's Tahiti raid. In real life, Nimitz's decision to fight Midway was very risky and probably in many simulations could have ended in disaster for the US; if Japan had opted to be a bit more flexible and send Zuikaku with re-constituted air groups to participate in Operation MI, or perhaps if Japan had had both of her carriers or the carriers from the Aleutians Operations, things might have ended very differently. Heck, the decisions to fights Coral Sea, the Guadalcanal Campaign, etc. were all risky.

While it's easy to approach this game methodically and purely from a strategic point of view and not play in such a manner, realistically in real life that was not the case politically or perhaps even at a more basic human level. The fact is, Allied commanders didn't just sit back and wait for the strategic calculus to change, they did take risks that in the grand scheme of things were not needed (but in the early days of '42 were considered vital). It wasn't until '44 off the Mariana's that there is a recognizable shift from tactical considerations to purely strategic in how the US and Allied fleets operated, such as Spruance's decision to protect the landing forces instead of opting to pursue reports of enemy carriers during the Battle of the Philippine Sea. He recognized that at the point in the war the strategic importance of securing the Marianas mattered more than sinking some carriers.

As you say, fighting in such a manner isn't fun. More importantly for me, in consideration of how human commanders responded to the heady days of '42, I believe it's unrealistic to turtle/Sir Robin and simple sit back until mid '43 or '44. Obviously, you don't want to do anything stupid. Nimitz didn't feel confident taking on the Marianas until 44 when he had overwhelming material advantage, but the breathing room he got to pursue such a strategy was secured through the risky actions he took two years earlier.



Canoerebel -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 7:44:18 PM)

The Allies had such tremendous amounts of information. They almost always knew where enemy assets were (or weren't, which could be just as useful). Sufficient info makes all the difference in the world.



BBfanboy -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 9:10:39 PM)

I thought the prime driver for Spruance's decision to protect the landings was not to create another Guadalcanal situation where the fleet retired and the amphib ships also had to do so. That left the troops ashore with whatever had been unloaded in the first couple of days. The Marianas were under threat from air attacks if the fleet went to deal with the IJN.

Strategic bombing of Japan needed to wait until airfields could be built up and B-29s delivered so I am not inclined to believe that was foremost in Spruance's mind. The strategic asset to protect here was the assault shipping and troops. The IJN was irrelevant if the Amphib fleet could operate wherever it wanted.



BBfanboy -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/21/2019 9:20:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The Allies had such tremendous amounts of information. They almost always knew where enemy assets were (or weren't, which could be just as useful). Sufficient info makes all the difference in the world.

You had a great observation in one of your AARs - Carriers are not the greatest strategic asset in the game, intel on the enemy is (or words to that effect).

You also were originally reluctant to play "mind games", but after Nemo gave us all some insight into "playing the player" you became very good at understanding your opponent's tendencies and communications so you can guess pretty well what he is likely to do. At the same time you use 'maskirovka', feints and limited offensives to feed your opponent's suppositions and make him ignore your real targets. It's fascinating to watch play out, thanks to your detailed AAR maps and commentary. Ditto for Lowpe.

Kudos to you and all the other players whose AARs enable us to avoid their mistakes and make different ones all on our own! [:D]



Anachro -> RE: November 16th, 1942 (3/22/2019 3:51:37 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

I thought the prime driver for Spruance's decision to protect the landings was not to create another Guadalcanal situation where the fleet retired and the amphib ships also had to do so. That left the troops ashore with whatever had been unloaded in the first couple of days. The Marianas were under threat from air attacks if the fleet went to deal with the IJN.

Strategic bombing of Japan needed to wait until airfields could be built up and B-29s delivered so I am not inclined to believe that was foremost in Spruance's mind. The strategic asset to protect here was the assault shipping and troops. The IJN was irrelevant if the Amphib fleet could operate wherever it wanted.


I think what your wrote primarily agrees with what I stated. As for mind games, I tend not to say much in my emails with John for fear of giving something away. John says plenty in his own words to me from which I can glean things. I don't think he is the type to play mind games. No turn yet today - maybe, just maybe a sub sank something.



Anachro -> November 17th, 1942 (3/22/2019 1:46:07 PM)

November 17th, 1942

As anticipated, John's carriers move even farther east, no doubt, hoping to find some shipping to target like what he had some minimal D/L on last turn. For all his trouble, this day he strikes nothing and, more importantly, spots nothing. We'll see what he does tomorrow.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/UmDU5Sj.png[/image]

Meanwhile, in India, it looks like John is starting his naval evacuation of Calcutta. I have a number of naval bombers nearby, although supply has proved difficult for getting some torpedoes in place, but we'll try. I have sweeped Calcutta the last few days and last turn I also attacked its airfield to try and soften the CAP he will no doubt put up. I also half expect to find the force to the south of his transports to include carriers or CVE's for further CAP protection.

At Dacca, 50,000 men are fleeing but yet face encroaching Allied forces and daily air bombardment.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/5Ucpwvy.png[/image]



Anachro -> RE: November 17th, 1942 (3/22/2019 2:55:12 PM)

Sigint still shows planning for Christmas Island and the 12th Division moving to Canton, but this could simply be because he hasn't had a chance to change these yet.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/KG3ZAqW.png[/image]



Anachro -> November 18th, 1942 (3/23/2019 1:55:06 AM)

November 18th, 1942

Naval bombers at Howrah and Jamshedpur attack John's encroaching task force, which turns out to be a pretty minor xAK fleet. Perhaps John is simply testing things out? Regardless, they sink most or all of the xAKs. There is a force to the south that appears to have DD's in it. Besides that, my fighters do very well in sweeps over Calcutta, but my 4E bombers inexplicably attack Chittagong where there is decent CAP. I had previously set their mission to Dacca without change and somehow they must have lost their mission target and opted to strike there. A shame as I lose a number of bombers I'd rather...not lose.

Regardless, I feel good about things in India and I should be able to chase and cause some attrition to John right up to the Burmese border. Part of my belief here is reinforced by John's words in his email to me where he makes sure to remind me that if I'm going to go into Burma I'll need to use PP's to buy my units out from India.

quote:

Before I stopped Posting in the AAR, I made the prediction that my India Operation would conclude by January 1, 1943. That looks fairly accurate. Made that prediction back in April-May 42 so not too bad of guesswork. As you begin looking into Burma and other points make sure you remember to pay your units out in Political Points when they cross the Frontiers. Won’t help me much but it might make you THINK about who gets to charge over full blown pursuit!


[image]https://i.imgur.com/zgBPCkb.png[/image]

In the Central Pacific, John's carriers move southeast and are now east of Palmyra and Christmas Island. My various transport task forces should be safe now, but John does spot and is in prime position to sink a single ACM I had heading to Christmas. Oh well.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/KA4nVEQ.png[/image]



Anachro -> RE: November 18th, 1942 (3/23/2019 1:56:24 AM)

Preview: A fleet moves.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/8Z3wNt6.png[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: November 18th, 1942 (3/23/2019 2:49:46 AM)

Not so inexplicable with the HBs switching targets. Any time they lose D/L on the target the mission becomes "Commander's Discretion". So if the original LCU being targeted was destroyed or moved out unseen or strat moved to Chittagong the targeting could change.



Anachro -> RE: November 18th, 1942 (3/23/2019 3:19:58 AM)

Yes, that was one of my first thoughts to. But nothing has moved from Dacca yet, so I don't know why that'd be the case. Plus they were targeting multiple LCU's there not just once. I think I just messed something up in the settings.



Anachro -> November 19th, 1942 (3/23/2019 10:56:40 PM)

November 19th, 1942

KB moved southwest towards Christmas Island and, as expected, I lose my ACM. However, the manner in which I lose it is unexpected. John detaches some DDs that sink the ACM while he no doubt plans to preserve his air forces for if my own carriers were to suddenly make an appearance. They won't, at least not yet.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/DzkrbaT.png[/image]

In the South Pacific, the first of two bombardment task forces hit Ndeni island without issue. Anticipating mines, I send one DMS first and embed DMS's into the bombardments. We damage or destroy a number of fighters, bombers, and search planes on the island, but the real interesting piece of news is what the bombardment divulges about the garrison: John has the 9th Infantry Division and 2nd Kure Assault SNLF Division both stationed here. No doubt, he has forts and such too. That's a lot of troops for a forward base like Ndeni and one that's at risk of continual bombardment and air bombing from my nearby bases. The fun part is that I have a second undetected bombardment force with 3 old US battleships set to hit the base again this coming night. Afterwards, I'll begin a continuous air bombing of the airfield here to deny him the ability to use it as a forward air base.

Another hope is to drag KB down here and keep his focus down here.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/yJDHdLB.png[/image]



Anachro -> RE: November 19th, 1942 (3/23/2019 11:00:41 PM)

In India, Calcutta is now surrounded and forces are converging on John's troops fleeing at Dacca.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/vHTCp7u.png[/image]



JeffroK -> RE: November 19th, 1942 (3/23/2019 11:27:25 PM)

????
Is that JIII predicting that his India campaign would win by 1/1/43 or get handed his head in a basket by then.
Then he has the gall to remind you of some HR in a game he modded and gave his side ridiculous advantages.

How do you guys put up with him??



BBfanboy -> RE: November 19th, 1942 (3/24/2019 12:25:02 AM)

Either John III is trying to play mind games (unsuccessfully) or he just blurts out whatever he is thinking at the time. Some people are just spontaneous that way while most players of this game mull things over and look at possible consequences. I just accept that he is being John Corcoran (I think the last name is right) and ignore what looks like boasting. Ditto for the Banzais!



Anachro -> RE: November 19th, 1942 (3/24/2019 1:15:53 AM)

It's just John being John. Canoerebel has mentioned it many times previously:

quote:

This is quintessential John: "Could have done much better than you actually did" plus he "knew" you were coming (but forgot to allow for it and get the heck out of the way).

As you know, these are admissions as to just how irritated he is with himself and with your success.


Regarding his comments about the HR and buying out units, I take that to mean he is really, really worried about his Burmese flank and feels weak there at the moment. Given how many divisions he seems to have posted on islands, etc. in the Pacific, I'm guessing he doesn't have much at all on his eastern front beyond what is currently fleeing India.



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