RE: August 25th, 1943 (Full Version)

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JohnDillworth -> RE: August 25th, 1943 (12/3/2019 7:20:18 PM)

John may have had to scuttle one of the CVs so the other cripples that could make better speed could get away. Or, it just sunk. Hard to picture John hitting the scuttle button on one of his ships



Chickenboy -> RE: August 25th, 1943 (12/3/2019 9:00:44 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro
Anyways, the important news: 2 IJN Fleet CVs SUNK! 2 more perhaps in trouble.


I wouldn't be too sure of TWO sunk CVs, Anachro. The 'Ground' losses seldom lie, IMO, but the other bits of intel you point to are fraught with overinterpretation. I've seen those 'sunk at XX, XX' messages change as the enemy beats a retreat across a path. Same with VPs granted before they're actually in the bag.

Following the path of the crippled enemy sounds like a good play. Maybe they're out there just a bit further East. Good luck!



Anachro -> RE: August 25th, 1943 (12/3/2019 9:04:47 PM)

You misunderstand me. I know two CVs sunk because there were 2 sets of sinking sounds, this and last turn; and both turns also showed Japanese naval A/C destroyed on the ground. I assume based on damage from the previous turn that these sinking sounds were CVs Hiryu and Soryu. I am using the "ships sunk" intelligence estimate to check the path of John's remaining carriers (which look to be Amagi and Akagi) and this implies he took them east towards Nauru (i.e. making use of the changing location of their sunk estimates to figure out their path).



Chickenboy -> RE: August 25th, 1943 (12/3/2019 9:07:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

You misunderstand me. I know two CVs sunk because there were 2 sets of sinking sounds, this and last turn; and both turns also showed Japanese naval A/C destroyed on the ground. I assume based on damage from previous turn these are CVs Hiryu and Soryu. I am using the "ships sunk" intelligence estimate to check the path of John's remaining carriers (which look to be Amagi and Akagi) and this implies he took them east towards Nauru (i.e. making use of the changing location of their sunk estimates to figure out their path).


Right. I didn't see the posting of the earlier set of 'ground' losses until just now. You're right-that's probably two in the bag. Nicely done. [8D]

There's also a better than even chance that the remaining carriers are either incapable of conducting flight ops due to damage >50 or that their decks are overloaded with refugee aircraft from the two stricken carriers. Either way, they're meat on the table. Go cut their guts out.[sm=00000055.gif]



Anachro -> August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 6:05:05 PM)

August 26th, 1943

Another day and more frustration as I am so frightfully close to John's beleaguered remnants of KB2. However, as is my luck, I am just out of range: they are 9 hexes away! The interesting thing here is that he has no DL on my carriers, but he most definitely should know they nearby due to his TFs both having DL and he probably got messages of enemy carrier A/C in their area as they conduct naval search. So, if I were John, I'd probably be fueled up at Truk now and would potentially send KB1 flank speed towards the Marshall Islands. That said, Jaluit is 28 hexes away so John shouldn't be able to act immediately. I'm guessing John will try to hide his carriers in port, but the question remains which one. Jaluit is the closest, followed by various other dot hexes nearby. He will probably try a CAP trap as well and hope my a/c goes after nearby TFs as bait, so even if I do double missions of naval/port strike I can run into problems.

What would you do? I can detach a SCTF to flank speed towards Jaluit, but that's risky. That said, John's CVs are damaged and surely low on fuel.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/6CWWcky.jpg[/image]

However, not all is boring and mundane, as my bombardment of Rabaul yields some nice results. Not only do I get my BBs and CAs to bombard the place and destroy/damage a decent amount of fighters there, but we find some nice CLs and DDs that were formerly escorts for KB2. An Aoba-class CLAA, a Tokoro-class CL, 2 Kagero-class DDs, and 1 Shimakaze-class DD are sunk in addition to the bombardments. Elsewhere, our DMS's find that John has craftily placed a CD unit, one of his new ones in this mod I think, on the dot hex of Umboi Island, probably to prevent a transit up towards Manus.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/FEras5b.jpg[/image]

I think the prudent thing for now with my transports is to pull back out of range of suddenly appearing enemy CVs from Truk, etc. Then I can conduct a movement on Lae once Death Star comes back. I will probably move east with my CVEs and SCTFs towards Guadalcanal to link up with Death Star eventually.



Anachro -> RE: August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 6:18:16 PM)

Sunk Ships

[image]https://i.imgur.com/1lepvYB.jpg[/image]



Chickenboy -> RE: August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 6:43:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro
What would you do? I can detach a SCTF to flank speed towards Jaluit, but that's risky. That said, John's CVs are damaged and surely low on fuel.


So, no DL on your ships? What makes you think that he's planning on setting up CAP or SCTF trap at Jaluit? Why would he do that unless he was convinced that he was being pursued?

In any case, you have a favorable tactical position and you should press it to your advantage. You only get these sort of set-ups once or twice a turn. Put the jackboot on his throat and crush it.

I would move as close to Jaluit as I could this turn-see if he continues fleeing East. If he is, you'll be in range tomorrow because of your superior TF speed. If he breaks North or NW for Truk, you'll be within range based on your new position at Jaluit (assuming he's making 6 hexes or fewer per movement). If he goes to ground at Jaluit then-the turn after next-you bombard the port with a detached BB/BC/CA TF and sink them at their moorings.



Anachro -> RE: August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 8:23:48 PM)

Regarding your DL question, if he is conscientious in following the replay, reading the operations log, and notices his TFs in the Marshalls have DL, he should assume I have ships nearby. The operation message might even say 'TFxxx spotted by enemy divebomber' etc. I think there are enough indications to surmise that my carriers are nearby. That said, he has no idea where they might be specifically; only an estimated range.



Canoerebel -> RE: August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 8:51:26 PM)

During the replay (001/movie file), if an icon appears on the map for one of your TFs, that means it's been "seen" by the enemy and appeared on your opponent's turn-file screen.



Anachro -> RE: August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 9:50:23 PM)

Turn sent. I really hope this is the one. Flank speed ten hexes up to the hex just northwest of Jaluit. I opted to set some TBs to Nav/Port Strike of Jaluit just in case. Hopefully, no surprises as KB1 on the flank is still a risk. TFs pull back from Milne and CVEs and Replenishment CVEs move southeast from Milne.

John has been spending a lot of time on these turns; no doubt he is moving various TFs around in addition to KB2.



Lovejoy -> RE: August 26th, 1943 (12/4/2019 10:08:04 PM)

Glad to see this AAR come back life

good luck and happy hunting!



Anachro -> August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/4/2019 11:34:17 PM)

August 27th, 1943 - The Destruction of KB2

Boys...I was extremely mad/frustrated while watching the replay to see nothing happen...no attacks on enemy ships, absolutely nothing but some paltry bombardments elsewhere. I yelled aloud in my anger, but then I opened the actual turn...and checked the numbers...what's this? Japanese naval A/C destroyed on the ground? Huh? Wait a second...SYNC BUG! The combat report is completely different! And so, for your enjoyment, I present the destruction of KB2. This has given me immense relief as I have been absolutely nervous the last few days after the first CV engagement.

It looks like Japan has now lost 2 Akagi-Class CVs and 2 Hiryu-class CVs. Indeed, there might even be an Aso-class CVL sunk as well, and perhaps some surface ships! [8D] You don't understand how good this feels after almost 2 years of a relentless IJN. Needless to say, if I can extract Death Star safely (I think I'll go east towards PH), this is a strategic shift in our war...and I'm a little sad John discontinued his AAR, but I can understand given its impossible to maintain two AARs. I also think he's suffering from SCLS, just like happened to me for a few days when I lost a 1 CV and 2 CVLs off Goa, India.

But we're not out of this yet...need to extract Death Star. I'm sorry for the large picture size, couldn't fit the combat in otherwise. My only gripe is I didn't get to watch the actual animations of my bombers hitting John's CVs.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/YPD3vuv.png[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 12:22:41 AM)

Wow! If that is an accurate combat report, that is a tremendous victory. What gives me pause is that I have never seen a synch bug turn out to be bad for the Allies and good for the Japanese on first display and then tremendous for the Allies later - I hope you are assured of having the fight info on this!



Canoerebel -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 12:34:27 AM)

It happens frequently. I know, because I live more or less permanently with sync bugs. Sometimes they lie in favor of Japan, sometimes in favor of the Allies. The Combat Report is always 100% accurate, though.



Canoerebel -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 12:42:31 AM)

P.S. Check out John's latest post in the Mods section. The reason for the current Allied victory is that he's distracted by mod work. Congratulations on prompting him to reach for that excuse (again).



Chickenboy -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 1:32:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Check out John's latest post in the Mods section. The reason for the current Allied victory is that he's distracted by mod work. Congratulations on prompting him to reach for that excuse (again).


[8|]

How hard is it to say you dropped the ball and made a big time mistake?

Congratulations, Anachro! You earned the victory. Well done! [&o]



Chickenboy -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 1:36:41 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

P.S. Check out John's latest post in the Mods section.


Sorry, but I had to post in the Mod section. I couldn't help myself. [:D]



Canoerebel -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 1:40:19 AM)

Since yesterday morning, I've sent John two PMs and an email encouraging him to make it clear in his AAR that he's committed to his game with Anachro and not abandoning it in favor of the next match. Thus far, he hasn't replied. As far as I'm concerned that's a condition precedent for the rematch he and I are contemplating. I am not gonna be the floozy that is perceived as enticing the mate away from his spouse. [:-]



Anachro -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 3:20:12 AM)

@BB As CR says, the actual game turn file and combat report is always 100% accurate. The sync bug is entirely contained in the replay. In my sync bug replay, my carrier scout planes spotted KB2 at Kwajalein, but conducted no naval strikes against it, and all I got in the afternoon was a port strike on an empty Jaluit. I am so glad that that was not the case in reality.

@CR It's a bit disheartening to read John's comments in the mod thread and feels to an extent like he'll put this game on the backburner, but I'm guessing he's just suffering a particularly acute case of SCLS at the moment; not to mention, we have been a bit slow mostly on my part as RL work stress (no doubt abetted by in-game drudgery) made me post here less and go a few days between turns. I sent John an email a little while back at the time saying I wanted to continue the game, but perhaps go at a slower pace sometimes. This is my hope going forward to. Sometimes we'll get multiple turns a day, somtimes one, sometimes less than that.

However, I completely agree with John's assessment of one man's ability to conduct multiple AARs in a sufficient manner. It's not possible; and I very much look forward to a CR/John AAR as the last one was a lot of fun. Your AARs are always an immense joy to me. I wish you luck, though I'd not want John to put me to the side (and if he does, I'd much like someone to continue this game with). I don't want to play someone who isn't fully invested. But this is just me rambling on. Like I said, SCLS affects all of us, I think that's the case here, and I am very much guilty of it myself.

I will say this though: when you get bad results, the effects psychologically can cause you to indeed be distracted and therefore lead to even greater calamities. I can certainly see John's debacle at Rabaul last turn, his mysterious lapse in naval search for the last few turns, as both being a result of his dejected distraction rather than because he was busy with mod work.

@Chickenboy John has made a very interesting mistake. I keep asking myself: Why would you send KB2 down south from Horn Island so close to my major strategic base in Northern Oz? What purpose did it serve? If he wanted to link up with KB1, why not just go around northern Guinea? Not only would that be safer, it wouldn't telegraph to me that his CV forces were linking up. I'd be none the wiser. I think he simply assumed I wouldn't be moving out from Townsville that turn (and to be honest, on any given turn there'd be a good chance I wouldn't). I guess it goes back to the Spruance quip about planning according to enemy capabilities and not their perceived intentions.

I wanted to ask John this, but I figured its a bit too soon.



T Rav -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 5:16:54 AM)

Well done against a ridiculous OB. You've graduated.

I will never be such; I'll always be the Peanut Gallery.

T-Rav



CaptBeefheart -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 8:00:14 AM)

Very well played, Anachro. I just caught up since my last comment during a slow moment at [cough] work [cough]. You've offered up a top-notch analysis and description of events to go with it. Hat's off!

EDIT: I hope the SCLS isn't too strong in your opponent. This is a great struggle.

Cheers,
CB



JohnDillworth -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 8:17:08 AM)

I suspect it's going to be a busy week at the store. Maybe even inventory



JohnDillworth -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 9:47:10 AM)

Some of those CA's don't look so good but unless you got deck penetrations they may live with lots of yard time. Destroyed turrets take forever. Not sure who carries what float planes but keep an eye on the aircraft loss screen. John loves his CA's as much as he loves his caboose.



Anachro -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 11:26:53 AM)

@TRav This mod is certainly a challenge for the Allied player used to the normal game; and it's a struggle to deal with the long-term relentlessness and weariness of tough battle because with its OOB Japan can still very much pack a punch and kick your butt well into '44. In a normal game, a good Allied player should have a "not fun" '42 followed by a better '43 and a fun '44/'45, unless he does something disastrous. But in this mod things can be close-run from '42 through '43 and perhaps into '44 and that can have effects psychologically. With the OOB of this mod, Japan can get closer to achieving its historical goal of an impervious defensive line of outer lying islands than ever before. Are some of the additions fantastical? Sure, I think John stretched what could have been done, even with Yamamoto more forcefully running things. Does this create a terrific challenge for an Allied player (whose OOB is also upgraded a bit)? Certainly, and I think that was the intention. Even with all the OOB changes for Japan, the game is pretty even in '43 and probably only shifts to the Allies in '44 on a numbers basis. That said, we have yet to see the effects of Jacks and Georges on a carrier battle of equals, but with KB2 dead we might not (and that has been one of my goals: to whittle down KB before he gets his CV-capable LBA).

@CaptBeefheart Thank you! I suspect John will lay low for a bit and post more in his mod forum (I certainly hope to think up some ideas for his mod now that I've played it a bunch). He'll recover. He just needs to remember that even with KB2's destruction, Japan's carrier forces are still very strong (indeed, I think it's still close to even numbers); and he gets more in the future. You can find my post on respective Allied and Japanese CV OOBs and future production on page 2 of this thread. Here's a quote:

quote:

By mid-1944, the Japanese Navy can theoretically field 14 fleet carriers and 13 light carriers and 4 escort carriers for a combined aircraft capacity ~660 fighters and ~760 bombers. These numbers can of course be shifted around to enlarge the number of fighters for protection. When these numbers are added to the fact that this mod makes the George and Jack CV-capable, it is a very potent theoretical force. A Japanese fan boy's wet dream, indeed. On top of all this, the Japanese start with 6 BCs and 2 CBs. They can build an additional 4 Yamato-class BBs and 4 Fuji-class CBs. They have a lot of different ships on which they can spend their scarce navy shipyard points.


Based on this, you can see that Japan is far from dead.

@JohnDillworth John sent me an email last night saying he had to head into Denver for training all day today! [:D] As for John's remaining forces, I'm contemplating bombarding Kwajalein with my SCTFs as I retreat east towards Pearl Harbor.

The Real Question
What happened to John's carriers and SCTFs at Truk? Why did he not send them over to backup KB2? First, there's every chance he might be and I could find KB1 off my flank a turn or two from now. However, if that's not the case, I think it could be because of one of two reasons or both: 1) John just had all those heavy BBs arrive at Truk a turn or two before KB1, there might not have been enough fuel on hand after his BBs ate it up to fuel CV and get it over in time; 2) John might have been very wary of tangling with Death Star with just KB1.



Anachro -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 11:30:38 AM)

Did I mention that John's Chiefs are playing my Pats this Sunday? Even in the real world, our respective teams battle. [8D]



GetAssista -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 12:47:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro
@Chickenboy John has made a very interesting mistake. I keep asking myself: Why would you send KB2 down south from Horn Island so close to my major strategic base in Northern Oz? What purpose did it serve? If he wanted to link up with KB1, why not just go around northern Guinea? Not only would that be safer, it wouldn't telegraph to me that his CV forces were linking up. I'd be none the wiser. I think he simply assumed I wouldn't be moving out from Townsville that turn (and to be honest, on any given turn there'd be a good chance I wouldn't). I guess it goes back to the Spruance quip about planning according to enemy capabilities and not their perceived intentions.

I wanted to ask John this, but I figured its a bit too soon.

John is a definition of relentless CV raider, that's all. He takes joy in catching your ships in the middle of nowhere above anything else, and likely underestimates the accompanying long term costs.



Anachro -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 2:58:47 PM)

Sent this email last night:

quote:

No worries. I'll be busy tomorrow as well. I'll probably send the next turn in the evening. I am in NYC at the moment doing meetings throughout the day. Also, you mentioning Denver reminded me of the Broncos and I was worried you were a fan, but then I remember your heart is with Kansas City. You're playing my Pats this coming weekend and, to be honest, I think you're gonna kill us.

Regarding the last turn, we had another sync bug and it gave me heartburn...until I saw the actual combat report.


Got this email from John. Really feels like SCLS to me and has me worried; I hope he doesn't plan to "not spend" time on the turns going forward. We'll see how he feels in a week or two. I will say, he sounded a lot more jazzed in his emails a few turns ago.

quote:

Should be a great game this weekend! [Pats/Chiefs game]

Think it is funny, as I re-appropriate my time, that I end my AAR just as you re-start yours! [note: quite the coincidence] Readers can keep up that way.

Am really fired up to go back into the Mod work. Have you to thank for that as well as my upcoming match with Dan. When you thought about ending the match and/or suspending it, the time opened up over those weeks and I got a serious chance to do some thinking and research leading Michael and I to go back to real work on the Mods as well as moving into Big B’s Scenario as a base point for creating short Wake Isle and Coral Sea Mods. My life is so fully committed to so much, I had to make priority adjustments and ending the AAR was an easy decision allowing for more focus on other things while we continue to play.

Unlike earlier, I am not playing every turn as if life depended on it. Am playing to have fun and not spending as much time on each little thing. That choice has cost me in the lost 4-5 turns but C’est la Vie. Made things more exciting—didn’t it??!!

Have a good day today and send the turn whenever.

Warmly, John



Chickenboy -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 3:04:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: JohnDillworth

I suspect it's going to be a busy week at the store. Maybe even inventory

[:D]



Chickenboy -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 3:11:12 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Anachro

Sent this email last night:

quote:

No worries. I'll be busy tomorrow as well. I'll probably send the next turn in the evening. I am in NYC at the moment doing meetings throughout the day. Also, you mentioning Denver reminded me of the Broncos and I was worried you were a fan, but then I remember your heart is with Kansas City. You're playing my Pats this coming weekend and, to be honest, I think you're gonna kill us.

Regarding the last turn, we had another sync bug and it gave me heartburn...until I saw the actual combat report.


Got this email from John. Really feels like SCLS to me and has me worried; I hope he doesn't plan to "not spend" time on the turns going forward. We'll see how he feels in a week or two. I will say, he sounded a lot more jazzed in his emails a few turns ago.

quote:

Should be a great game this weekend! [Pats/Chiefs game]

Think it is funny, as I re-appropriate my time, that I end my AAR just as you re-start yours! [note: quite the coincidence] Readers can keep up that way.

Am really fired up to go back into the Mod work. Have you to thank for that as well as my upcoming match with Dan. When you thought about ending the match and/or suspending it, the time opened up over those weeks and I got a serious chance to do some thinking and research leading Michael and I to go back to real work on the Mods as well as moving into Big B’s Scenario as a base point for creating short Wake Isle and Coral Sea Mods. My life is so fully committed to so much, I had to make priority adjustments and ending the AAR was an easy decision allowing for more focus on other things while we continue to play.

Unlike earlier, I am not playing every turn as if life depended on it. Am playing to have fun and not spending as much time on each little thing. That choice has cost me in the lost 4-5 turns but C’est la Vie. Made things more exciting—didn’t it??!!

Have a good day today and send the turn whenever.

Warmly, John




IMO, it sounds like he's trying to externalize the responsibility for his own personal Midway on 'events beyond his control'. Doing so in this manner also minimizes his own personal responsibility as well as minimizing credit to you for your major victory. It rubs me the wrong way not giving credit where credit is due. But maybe that's just me.

Really, how hard is it to tell your opponent that you've been bettered? Extend a 'job well done' and 'congratulations' and all that and move on.

The other bright side to this is that I've come up with a new moniker that should stick for the foreseeable future for 'floozy Dan'. [:D] I intend to use this regularly on Dan's new AAR.



JohnDillworth -> RE: August 27th, 1943 - Immense Relief (12/5/2019 4:06:52 PM)

John will be back. He just needs to cool off. This was a pretty big defeat, it may take a while but he will be back.



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