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altipueri -> RE: For those of you playing along at home. (11/27/2018 10:00:58 PM)
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Yes at 430 pages a jolly read. (This doesn't seem to have copied well, so maybe you have to read it after all. Sorry - you can see why I am too dim to play CMANO. :)
The summary:
Over the past two decades, China’s People’s Liberation Army has transformed itself from
a large but antiquated force into a capable, modern military. Its technology and operational
proficiency still lag behind those of the United States, but it has rapidly narrowed the gap.
Moreover, China enjoys the advantage of proximity in most plausible conflict scenarios,
and geographical advantage would likely neutralize many U.S. military strengths. A sound
understanding of regional military issues—including forces, geography, and the evolving
balance of power—will be essential for establishing appropriate U.S. political and military
policies in Asia. This RAND study analyzes the development of respective Chinese and
U.S. military capabilities in ten categories of military operations across two scenarios,
one centered on Taiwan and one on the Spratly Islands. The analysis is presented in ten
scorecards that assess military capabilities as they have evolved over four snapshot
years: 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. The results show that China is not close to catching up
to the United States in terms of aggregate capabilities, but also that it does not
need to catch up to challenge the United States on its immediate periphery. Furthermore, although
China’s ability to project power to more distant locations remains limited, its reach is
growing, and in the future U.S. military dominance is likely to be challenged at greater
distances from China’s coast. To maintain robust defense and deterrence capabilities in
an era of fiscal constraints, the United States will need to ensure that its own operational
concepts, procurement, and diplomacy anticipate future developments in Chinese military
capabilities.
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