question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (Full Version)

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gbem -> question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 2:33:05 PM)

after losing an M1IP against a T-55AM to a weakpoint hit frontally i immediately wondered... what is the calculation for that weakpoint hit? and what is recommended in order to minimize the chance of getting it



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:14:11 PM)

my god this is ridiculous... the AI charged 2 M1A1s into my T-55s and the T-55s slaughtered them due to frontal weak point penetrations... likewise 2 M60 pattons killed 2 T-80Us by achieving frontal weak point penetrations... i think the frontal weak point hitrate is too high for its own good...



kevinkins -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:36:51 PM)

Wow, that AI knows how to roll snake eyes ... [X(]



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:42:45 PM)

the problem is although i realize even MBTs have weakspots the occurence is simply too much... those enemy 2 M1IPs that charged to my 4 T55s did so in open ground with no cover for both tanks at 2km... the T-55 still KOed the first m1 and tracked the other... the rest proceeded to flank and destroy... that was a situation in the M1IP`s advantage and yet the T-55AM (the 300+ point ones per platoon) crushed the m1s with 1 T-55 lost...

id understand if it were a fight in a forest or at really close range where hitting those tiny weakspots is actually realistic... (cough warthunder) but at 1-2km? that stuff doesnt happen consistently...



Veitikka -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:44:06 PM)

The weak point hit probability is 15%. The only way to avoid it is to avoid getting hit. From what I remember, you're the first one ever saying that it happens too often.



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:49:14 PM)

id say lower it to 5% or even lower... at this rate i can simply use a swarm of T-55s for every tank battle and frontally weakpoint hit all MBTs cost efficiently... in fact ive tried it.... 3x T-55am platoons vs 1 M1A1 platoon... tried 3 times T-55AM always wins...



Veitikka -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:49:54 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

id understand if it were a fight in a forest or at really close range where hitting those tiny weakspots is actually realistic... (cough warthunder) but at 1-2km? that stuff doesnt happen consistently...


I believe in real life those cases rarely happen because the tank gunner is Tex Willer. More likely a 'weak spot' is hit accidentally.



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:51:15 PM)

1st engagement
all m1s destroyed T55 7 losses

2nd engagement
all m1s destroyed T55 9 losses

3rd engagement
all m1s destroyed T55 6 losses

engagement range 1km



Veitikka -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:55:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

3x T-55am platoons vs 1 M1A1 platoon... tried 3 times T-55AM always wins...


I find that hard to believe, especially if it's a long range engagement.



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:56:42 PM)

did 3 more engagements
4th engagement
all M1s destroyed T55 12 losses

5th engagement
1 M1 survived all 15 T55 lost

6th engagement
all M1s destroyed T55 4 losses



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 3:58:23 PM)

its not a side penetration as the game logs frontal weakspot hit damage



kevinkins -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 4:15:23 PM)

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 4:41:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin


20% of 400 is 80 so any KE rounds above 80 AP will potentially be able to penetrate the front weak points.



Veitikka -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 4:44:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

5th engagement
1 M1 survived all 15 T55 lost


How many T-55s are there? Earlier you said 3 platoons, and usually T-55 platoons have 3 tanks. That makes 9 tanks. Here you have 15 T-55(AM?), all firing at the M1(A1?) frontal turret/hull armor from 1km range?



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 4:52:11 PM)

I just tried it with 9 t55AM against 4 m1a1 and the abrams killed all 9 without a single loss. This was at 1000 meters too which is a massive disadvantage for the abrams.



Veitikka -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 4:52:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin


I think most ammunition can score a weak point hit, but it doesn't automatically kill the target. It just reduces armor protection for that shot down to 20% of the maximum.

A weak point probability of 5% or so would be very low. In that case it probably wouldn't make sense for units to waste any ammunition in hope for a weak spot hit. Remember, first you have to hit the target before there's any chance for a weak point penetration.



thewood1 -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 4:56:21 PM)

Just ran two scenarios six times each in Steel Beasts.

Scenario 1 with M1A1 vs T-55AM from late 70's ammo pool. 5 hits on average from the T-55s with no damage to M1. All three T-55s destroyed.

Scenario 2 with M1A1 vs T-55AM from late 80's ammo pool. 2 hits on average from T-55s damage and destroy M1A1. In half of the scenarios, 1 T-55 was killed.

All at 1km no terrain or weather. SB doesn't list weakpoint hits. It just says penetrated and shows you where it hit.

Year and other factors can influence this so I would think posting your scenario would help clear it up.



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 5:12:10 PM)

I'm gonna call the OP out for bullshit on this one. I've done it again and no abrams were lost, both times 1 abrams was damaged from a frontal weakpoint hit which it then proceeded to pop smoke. I have made a video:

https://vimeo.com/303110332



thewood1 -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 5:17:44 PM)

From SB's wiki...

100mm D-10T: BM-8 HVAPDS-T 1700 300 1415 1968
100mm D-10T: BM-20 APFSDS-T 2000 390 1408 1976
100mm D-10T: BM-25 APFSDS-T 2000 430 1430 1978
100mm D-10T: M309 APFSDS-T 2500 480 1400 1999
100mm D-10T: BK-5M HEAT-FS-T 2500 380 900 1955

From the same sources, the M1 center section from turret to bottom of front hull is between 390 and 430mm in resistance to kinetic rounds. That is a pretty big weakpoint. Even the M1A1 is only marginally better. I am not surprised that a T-55AM firing its best ammo at the time is penetrating an M1 fairly regularly. And the AT-10b and beyond can also penetrate. periodically.

A better test in AB is getting one M1 and one T-55 to face off multiple times and see what happens.



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 5:24:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: thewood1

From SB's wiki...

100mm D-10T: BM-8 HVAPDS-T 1700 300 1415 1968
100mm D-10T: BM-20 APFSDS-T 2000 390 1408 1976
100mm D-10T: BM-25 APFSDS-T 2000 430 1430 1978
100mm D-10T: M309 APFSDS-T 2500 480 1400 1999
100mm D-10T: BK-5M HEAT-FS-T 2500 380 900 1955

From the same sources, the M1 center section from turret to bottom of front hull is between 390 and 430mm in resistance to kinetic rounds. That is a pretty big weakpoint. Even the M1A1 is only marginally better. I am not surprised that a T-55AM firing its best ammo at the time is penetrating an M1 fairly regularly. And the AT-10b and beyond can also penetrate. periodically.

A better test in AB is getting one M1 and one T-55 to face off multiple times and see what happens.


I would think the M1 would win the vast vast majority of the time. By doing 1km engagement and being outnumbered (which is going out of your way to set the Abrams up for failure) from my tests they still succeed with no losses. If it's 1v1 it would require a lot of luck for T-55 to win.



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 5:31:40 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Veitikka


quote:

ORIGINAL: kevinkin

In the engagement described with M1s, what type of munition will get a kill with a weak point probability of 15%? In other words, what is the lowest quality munition that will kill a M1 if the hit strikes a weak point? Obviously MG bullets don't qualify for the 15%. But would an RPG for example? Thanks.

Kevin


I think most ammunition can score a weak point hit, but it doesn't automatically kill the target. It just reduces armor protection for that shot down to 20% of the maximum.

A weak point probability of 5% or so would be very low. In that case it probably wouldn't make sense for units to waste any ammunition in hope for a weak spot hit. Remember, first you have to hit the target before there's any chance for a weak point penetration.



However, one thing I would request is the ability to mod weak point hit chance. It would be nice to be able to define different weak point hit chance for different vehicles.

Maybe in a future patch?



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 7:35:02 PM)

nooooo... thats actually a typo from me... its 5x T-55AM1 platoons... make sure its the export model am1

"5th engagement
1 M1 survived all 15 T55 lost "

it gets more cost efficient using companies but my testing on the platoon level works



kevinkins -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 7:36:22 PM)


quote:

20% of 400 is 80 so any KE rounds above 80 AP will potentially be able to penetrate the front weak points.


Could you give us an example of the types of KE rounds that fall above and below the 80 AP threshold to put the number in perspective? I don't think there is a published list. Thanks.

Kevin



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 7:46:02 PM)

Thewood1 the T55am1 only has 300+ penetration ingame (export tank)

Besidesit must be noted that sb has its own share of inaccuracies



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 7:50:01 PM)

By doing 1km engagement and being outnumbered (which is going out of your way to set the Abrams up for failure)

Forcing a 1km engagement against a superior mbt isnt difficult... it can be forced using a mortar platoon or 2... meanwhile superior T55 numbers is exactly my point.... i can simply use superior numbers of cheap **** to destroy expensive stuff by abusing the weakspot mechanism...



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 8:09:48 PM)

I broke down the hit chance via mathematics to explain this

Say 1 M1 vs 15 T55s
In the opening volley all 15 T55s opened fire on a single m1
15% hit chance to hit the weakspot and lets say 80% hit accuraccy

This gives us the equation
1−((0.85^(15×0.8)) giving us an 85.7% chance an m1 will die or be damaged on the first volley... considerable? It gets worse

Considering 90% hitchance it gets higher with an 88% kill/damage probability... and with 100%? 91% kill/damage



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 8:39:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

nooooo... thats actually a typo from me... its 5x T-55AM1 platoons... make sure its the export model am1

"5th engagement
1 M1 survived all 15 T55 lost "

it gets more cost efficient using companies but my testing on the platoon level works


1. 5x T-55AM1 costs 20% more than 1 platoon of M1A1 so how is it cost efficient again?
2. 5x T-55AM1 I just tested it, saved at the beginning, did it 5 times:

1. no losses for abrams
2. 1 m1 destroyed 1 damaged
3. this time all m1s were destroyed and 7 t-55am1 was left
4. no losses for abrams
5. 2 m1 destroyed

So yes, apparently sometimes the T-55 can get lucky and if their luck snowballs they can actually win very quickly with low losses, but most of the time M1A1s still win.

If you are doing this test you must make sure to use advance mode so the AI defends and sits there and doesn't move. If they're moving around it affects the outcome alot. You have to also make sure that all tanks are visible to each other so 15 T-55s don't focus fire on one abrams one by one. I have uploaded the save file for you to test if you don't believe me.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/index.php?file_id=18414411892280245078



noooooo -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 8:41:52 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: gbem

I broke down the hit chance via mathematics to explain this

Say 1 M1 vs 15 T55s
In the opening volley all 15 T55s opened fire on a single m1
15% hit chance to hit the weakspot and lets say 80% hit accuraccy

This gives us the equation
1−((0.85^(15×0.8)) giving us an 85.7% chance an m1 will die or be damaged on the first volley... considerable? It gets worse

Considering 90% hitchance it gets higher with an 88% kill/damage probability... and with 100%? 91% kill/damage


Are you implying 1 abrams should be able to win or even survive against 15 1980s spec T-55s at 1000km engagement distance? You're really overestimating the protection of a Abrams. Really the only ridiculous thing here is the assertions that you're making.



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 8:59:13 PM)

Ill give your savegame a test... i wish there were some semblance of coop play or at least a firing range mode... since the real issue here is that dividing your 15 shells amongst 4 abrams is a horrible idea... its more favorable to fire them all on a single abrams in order to knock out its firepower...

I simulated this buy making the abrams pop out near forest (meeting engagement) to allow the first abrams to be aimed at but the rest appearing before the first abrams is killed... dividing the firepower compromises everything for the T55



gbem -> RE: question: what is the probability of weakpoint hit? (11/27/2018 9:01:51 PM)

I never made the assertion that 1 M1 can beat 15 T55s... its a simple kill chance a T55AM1 volley has on a single abrams for the platoon... by focusing down firepower you eliminate the enemies guns one at a time... schwerepunkt



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