RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:29:46 PM)

4/24/44

Air Losses: Hey, the air losses look decent. Japan lost much more than I had expected. Allied losses were about what I had expected, perhaps dampened just a bit by the CVE fighters diverting to Koepang.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/BA006BA1257846348FF83FA847DC50DC.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:34:25 PM)

He lost 179 more aircraft than you - isn't that more points than two CVEs?
Still, he did better on the denominator/numerator 3:1 comparison.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:34:42 PM)

4/24/44

Celebes: Ooph. Tough losing carriers, especially when they don't die taking down enemy carriers or combat ships. Darn. My bad.

The Superforts do good work vs. Balikpapan oil. With B-29s operating from Assam and from Timor, Dave will have to spread his fighters out, or he'll pay for it.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E8C57CA454F749558C0125FE379BD506.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:35:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

He lost 179 more aircraft than you - isn't that more points than two CVEs?
Still, he did better on the denominator/numerator 3:1 comparison.


Yeah, the math doesn't work from an auto victory standpoint. And it doesn't offer solace in the balance of power either. Replacing aircraft is easier than replacing those incredibly useful jeep carriers. Darn.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:38:05 PM)

This is no country for old men, nor for carriers. I don't think the Allies can move further forward. The situation in the DEI will be: build up airfields; perhaps an occasional FT invasion; and be prepared to fend off enemy counterattacks, if possible. DS will (mostly) remain in place, but I'll have to ramp up my thoughts about other, distant forces moving, whenever KB shows up in the DEI.



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:43:50 PM)

There's a good chance KB went to Singapore to repair damaged CVs. It is also a good place on the cusp of both IO and DEI intervention. A night port attack by B-29s might be worthwhile.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 4:54:03 PM)

I don't think it went to Singapore, because that base is under observation from Cocos Island. I think KB is at Manila. (I previously thought Hong Kong was a possibility; hence the Superfort raid there three turns back.)



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 5:31:22 PM)

4/24/44

Final Thoughts: Losing two Allied CVEs is a blow modestly offset by enemy's loss in aircraft, subs and oil points at Balikpapan. All in all it wasn't a terrible day. A bigger cloud that bots the sunlight is the difficulty of making progress in this environment. Enemy LBA is an issue but the bigger one is the total inability to use LRCAP over friendly bases where ships are docked. A major obstacle, that. How to proceed - and where - will get a lot of thought.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C7A91831F1B94F3D8FFE126F77C413A8.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 5:32:05 PM)

P.S. That turn was a blast. On the edge of my seat throughout. Really fun stuff.



Crackaces -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 5:50:11 PM)

If the IJN would have coordinated this attack .. it would be a very different story. The numbers do not include damaged platforms that cannot participate next turn or will be ops losses. The IJ has committed quite a few aircraft to sink 2 CVE's and damage the Barnes ... Plus as you state .. the IJ have quite a few targets they need to protect now or you will bomb them into submission.....this is an optimum position .. the enemy has to spread out and you can select where to concentrate

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Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:20:30 PM)

4/25/44

Battle of Celebes: With nightfall (ie, a new turn in the inbox), the biggest threat from the enemy should be subs. I think Dave's LBA at Soerabaja will be tuckered out, won't sortie, and that he's unlikely to bring in fresh squadrons. DS is to move two hexes south, providing one more day of coverage for shipping in the Bima vicinity.

The day opens with a new sub attack...and a new base flip up past Watampone (Madjene, in the Celebes). Any way to take advantage of that? Not really, me thinks, except possibly for PBY use.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/B32072E674A74A59952E867282EE01ED.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:22:15 PM)

4/25/44

Celebes: For the first time in awhile, enemy subs near Koepang, hoping to pick off inbound ships. You never know what might happen, but I like this. It'll be three or four turns before DS comes this way; in the meantime, air and sea ASW can work this area.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/E1CBABD5FEC241B5852758C444164841.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:24:44 PM)

4/25/44

Celebes: You never know.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/C11B3851C37C4D9F84997A9CB0A66B81.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:26:18 PM)

4/25/44

Bangkok: B-29s from Chittagong target Manpower (not Light Industry, as I reported last turn).

[image]local://upfiles/8143/A3750A4B21EE4F708717DE01FCF3A192.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:27:58 PM)

4/25/44

Soerabaja: B-29s from Koepang target this port, where recon shows there are DDs and perhaps a CL or CA (the carriers having departed a week or more back).

What's this?

[image]local://upfiles/8143/F86F8B340510422583B83AB0ABDADDE7.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:30:59 PM)

4/25/44

Soerbaja: Yowza. Blundered into pleasant surprise.

No confirmation that she's gone under. Tomorrow, perhaps 20 B-24s from Koepang will try suicide daylight attack against the port at 5k.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/8979003DDB8E49B8BCE7FD95226B7DA4.jpg[/image]



Crackaces -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:37:07 PM)

I think it was BBfanboy that explained to me that each 500 pound bomb is about 2 sys damage? I think that was AP 500 lb bomb .. the bad thing here is you can't see the fires or smoke to get an estimate .. but assume about 20 - 30 sys damage and she has some major damage ..



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:42:29 PM)

In the old WitP, Heavy Fires/Heavy Damage meant a Japanese ship was a goner. That's not true, so much, in AE, but it's worth paying attention to. Here, I think Akagi should be in dire straights. If she has any speed, Dave may try to move her. But she may also be piersie or in the yards, because she took two bombs during the Battle of Timor Sea, three weeks back.



jwolf -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 7:54:21 PM)

At minimum Akagi is certainly out of action for a long time (or a longer time than before). No downside there.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 9:09:45 PM)

4/26/44

Celebes: ASW finds and kills I-169, which had taken a single hit off Koepang yesterday. The kill is confirmed.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/9FC22091D077428FBDEA55D3CBA9C6D5.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 9:11:24 PM)

4/26/44

Soerabaja: Sorry, guys. You've been chosen for a suicide mission: port strike at Soerabaja at 5k. 17 4EB go in; 7 remain to drop their payloads. It works.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/477279DACCAB401E8344CE0E93979FFB.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 9:13:49 PM)

4/26/44

Soerabaja: Persuasive evidence that Akagi sank.

My guess is that the initial port strike caught Dave by surprise, that fires were set aboard the carrier, and that this prevented him from offloading her aircraft complement. (I think fires prevent doing so.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0CB9DDD636A64D9FA03EA4074F3A8E5B.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 9:21:30 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I think it was BBfanboy that explained to me that each 500 pound bomb is about 2 sys damage? I think that was AP 500 lb bomb .. the bad thing here is you can't see the fires or smoke to get an estimate .. but assume about 20 - 30 sys damage and she has some major damage ..

If I made the comment about two points of system damage per 500 lb. bomb, it would have been in connection with a non-penetrating hit on a cruiser or BB. That size bomb penetrates the decks of most IJ carriers (Taiho excepted) and should be expected to cause an average of about 7 System damage and about five points of fire damage, plus whatever extra damage is reported.

Given the number of bomb hits Akagi took plus an ASE (equates to about three 1000 lb. bomb hits), I can't see how she survives even with the large port there to help. The fires should prevent her parking pierside but she can disband at anchor or form up in an Escort TF to avoid port strikes. But she's a goner no matter what.



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 9:26:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

4/26/44

Soerabaja: Persuasive evidence that Akagi sank.

My guess is that the initial port strike caught Dave by surprise, that fires were set aboard the carrier, and that this prevented him from offloading her aircraft complement. (I think fires prevent doing so.)

[image]local://upfiles/8143/0CB9DDD636A64D9FA03EA4074F3A8E5B.jpg[/image]

If the strikes all happened same day, there would be no opportunity for Dave to order the planes removed. The AI will only automatically save the aircraft already in the air when the carrier becomes incapable of flying ops. So a few CAP aircraft if they were up, but most of the air group were probably in rest and repair mode.
I think that is a mistake, leaving an air group on the anchored carrier when the Enemy is close enough to strike the port. Perhaps the airfield was overcrowded with Francis cannonfodder and their escorts! [:)]



jdsrae -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 10:26:52 PM)

Crunch... I hope CrackSabbath isn’t reading your AAR [:D]



JohnDillworth -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 10:48:13 PM)

This is bad luck on your opponents part. I have to think those ships were in a seemingly safe yard for repair. Obviously the shipyard/port is now close to useless. The Level 9 airfield, however, is the key to the areas defense. This whole place is going to be a graveyard for ships and planes. Fun stuff



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 11:30:48 PM)

I followed this same line of attack in a game vs. Miller ten years ago. It was hard going. The biggest difference is that, here, the Allies penetrated deep, fast, and early, before Japan could finally coax them to a halt. They're already ashore on Celebes and near Java, though tenuously.

Soerabaja and Singapore are the only two level nine airfields anywhere close. One option is to bomb one or the other into submission before invading in the vicinity. There are other possibilities.



RangerJoe -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 11:47:00 PM)

So, does this attack on the Akagi with its losses make up for the two CVEs and their losses? Plus whatever other damage that was done to the other ships?

He should have unloaded the aircraft when the Akagi made port.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/10/2019 11:58:55 PM)

From a victory points ratio standpoint it turned out pretty good, by luck rather than design. From a fighting standpoint, it was a good four or five days.



Crackaces -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (9/11/2019 12:56:29 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Crackaces

I think it was BBfanboy that explained to me that each 500 pound bomb is about 2 sys damage? I think that was AP 500 lb bomb .. the bad thing here is you can't see the fires or smoke to get an estimate .. but assume about 20 - 30 sys damage and she has some major damage ..

If I made the comment about two points of system damage per 500 lb. bomb, it would have been in connection with a non-penetrating hit on a cruiser or BB. That size bomb penetrates the decks of most IJ carriers (Taiho excepted) and should be expected to cause an average of about 7 System damage and about five points of fire damage, plus whatever extra damage is reported.

Given the number of bomb hits Akagi took plus an ASE (equates to about three 1000 lb. bomb hits), I can't see how she survives even with the large port there to help. The fires should prevent her parking pierside but she can disband at anchor or form up in an Escort TF to avoid port strikes. But she's a goner no matter what.


First, sorry to use tour name in vain [8D]
Second you are exactly right .. I looked back in the AAR and I hit a BB 20 bombs and your comment was to expect 2 Sys per 500 pound bomb .. that BB although burned to the waterline because of fires .

So we got recorded what to expect vs a Japanese CV’s...



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