RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (Full Version)

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T Rav -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 6:03:38 AM)

Chuck,

I "kinda" think that's what I said.

Sorry for the hijack CB,
T Rav



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 4:21:58 PM)

2/8/45

Invasion of Luzon: After one mostly quiet day, Dave releases his air and sea forces (including KB) again. This turned into a rollicking, noisy series of battles, with both sides getting in good licks. It went this way:

1. Allied forces retired from Iba, pivoting to land major units at Lucena.
2. As a strong rearguard, the Allies posted a bunch of combat TFs at and near Iba, anticipating further enemy combat TF attacks. That's exactly what happened. Enemy cruisers and destroyers came in big numbers. They ended up sinking a bunch of DEs but got whacked in return. Dave lost at least six DDs with another half-dozen heavily damaged.
3. Dave has ASW TFs working on the northern tip of Luzon. They sank at least three USN DDs.
4. LBA and carrier-based air sortied in big numbers and got chewed on. But late in the day a sizeable package found a modestly-CAPed CVE TF and did some heavy damage, I think sinking two, damaging others, and heavily damaging BB Royal Sovereign.
5. Dave lost 400+ aircraft; I lost 80+.
6. Major Allied reinforcements come in at Lucena and the adjacent base (Batangas?), including base forces and engineers. Lots of LBA fighters move in, so CAP and security will be enhanced considerably.

This has been a really tough and costly campaign in terms of points (purely from an operational standpoint and achieving the goal of landing at and near Luzon in huge numbers it's going very well).

I'll post a detailed map with major combat reports shortly.



jwolf -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 4:38:26 PM)

quote:

Dave has ASW TFs working on the northern tip of Luzon. They sank at least three USN DDs.


Is that supposed to be subs that were sunk?

This series of ops has been fascinating to watch. Each time Dave strikes, it looks like he has shot his wad and has little to nothing left ... except that he always has more for the next time. Do you ever expect him to run dry?



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 4:38:42 PM)

2/8/45

Battle of Luzon: Here are the surface combat clashes (carrier situation will be covered in the next post).

[image]local://upfiles/8143/2B8DD425986D489396309DCD976671B6.jpg[/image]



Anachro -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 4:43:11 PM)

The losses aren't fun, but in the strategic picture looks like a grinding war of attrition to whittle down the Imperial Navy while securing a valuable base to help constrict flow of goods to the Home Islands. Do you envision a Downfall scenario in this game?



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 4:58:50 PM)

The Allies are only about 15k or 16k from auto victory. I think Singapore, Luzon, China and Strategic Bombing are sufficient to cover that in the medium term, as I've noted above. If things begin to drag out in unexpected ways, the Allies would next tackled Formosa. IE, the game should end before a move on the HI is necessary (unless Dave wants to play on after AV).



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 5:02:14 PM)

2/8/45

Battle of Luzon: The Japanese do heavy damage to another CVE TF and pay for it with heavy air losses.

With DS untouched and with two Allied airfields operational now, I think the Allies are now in a position to begin asserting local dominance. I expect the threat from enemy air to recede shortly, but he may continue committing combat TFs until I really have the region locked up more tightly.


[image]local://upfiles/8143/653D8B5BF0354EDEA64F7D329DFEB318.jpg[/image]



HansBolter -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 6:43:35 PM)

Sometimes I think you take the Spruance style reticence to pursue the enemy carriers cause you don't want to expose your carrier strike planes to a CAP trap approach just a tad too far.

Your DS is parked 7 hexes from his carriers and they have been allowed to freely strike with risk only to their air wings and not their hulls.

Then again, you have major land air bases to defend against in conjunction with the enemy carriers so you likely have your carriers heavy with fighters and light with strike aircraft and have made the right decisions.

This combination of carrier and major LBA making your invasion costly is a good picture of what things would be like if you tried to invade the HI in your game against Obvert.



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/2/2019 8:13:22 PM)

If that sighting of 7 BBs with his carrier TF is accurate, that could be a major challenge if he decided to throw them at you. He must know your carrier TBs are not numerous and have not performed well in recent clashes, so only your subs and your own BBs would be good counters.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/3/2019 3:35:51 PM)

I don't think he has seven BBs left. And he only has four CAs left. His Navy is really hurting.

I haven't tallied CL losses. He's lost about 152 DDs. That's a lot too, but I haven't checked to see how many he gets.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/3/2019 3:43:07 PM)

2/9/45 to 2/11/45

Battle of Luzon: Having shot his wad (a powerful, long-lasting wad, at that), things quiet down. The Allied armies are coming ashore without let or hindrance.

To the south of Manila, the first objective will be to destroy the small enemy army at Atimonan and to then take all the bases on that peninsula. (Three IJA brigades did the Allies a favor by advancing to Lucena, just as an Allied army unloaded and booted them from the hex, doing heavy damage to the enemy.) Eventually, this army will move on Manila.

To the north of Manila, a large Allied army will remain at Iba to hold the enemy armies at Clark and Manila in check. Allied engineers and bases forces, escorted by security units, will fan out to the north. Their chief objective is to build the airfield at Aparri for strategic bombing purposes.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/087A9ABBE4034D6BBE071C08CE512946.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/3/2019 5:52:56 PM)

2/12/45

Battle of Luzon: Some returns on the investment today, as Japanese air gets chewed up while attacking DS. Also, Allied LBA dive bombers knocked out some troop transports near Aparri.

All Allied troops are ashore, but there's still a ton of supply to unload (the seized bases are still relatively small and thus have limits on supply, though I've exceeded those greatly). In a day or three, DS & The Herd of Empties will move SW a bit. The mission will be to pick up and escort reinforcements from (and gathering at) Brunei/Miri, while also allowing empties and cripples to detach and head for Soerabaja.

Things look really good, at the moment.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/2CF36CAA55394F0294709E4C37C363A4.jpg[/image]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 3:31:05 PM)

2/13/45 to 2/16/45

Order has been restored in theater, after the boisterous fisticuffs of the past two weeks. The Allied lead is increasing again, and the Allies are in good position to prosecute the war vs. Singers and on Luzon. In China, the objective is to maintain the status quo, for now.

Battle of Luzon: Allies boot enemy army from Atimonan. Liquidating that army is a surety but will take time, as it retreats down the peninsula. Allied bases are growing large, quickly. Manila will be a real tough nut but it's nearly cordoned off now.

Singapore: Next Allied general attack will take place the day after tomorrow. Most recent enemy adjusted AV was 14k. I'm hoping forts will drop a level (to 7) and that adjusted AV will be 13k or less. If that's what happens, then the end result becomes a mathematical exercise that would take perhaps four to six weeks.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/7CB590321D1A475981D5DBAA34DB2B56.jpg[/image]



HansBolter -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 3:38:05 PM)

Have you meticulously examined all ships in the herd TFs?

I have found that sometimes one ship with heavy engine damage is the culprit in slowing movement of the gaggle.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 3:54:22 PM)

Everything's been carefully checked repeatedly.. It's just one of those things that happens when there's 1500 ships involved. It gets cumbersome.




BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 5:06:32 PM)

I think sometimes daisy-chained "follow" orders can also result in slow progress. Better to have one lead TF and all others follow it.
Low threat tolerance can also make some TFs skittish.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 5:07:56 PM)

I don't really have a daisy chain here, but I do think the number of TFs is the real issue. All TFs (all 27,000 of them) are set to Direct/Absolute.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 5:15:26 PM)

2/17/45

Battle of Luzon: The Japanese air forces suffer two black eyes - one defensively at Manila, the second offensively at Lucena.

Singapore: Key attack tomorrow. I'm really interested in this, because it's going to reveal whether the Allied plan is viable and on course, or whether I need to resign the game and take up checkers.

The Invasion of Luzon: My handling of the carriers left a lot to be desired on two accounts, but they did the job. They got the transports to the beachheads and ports without loss, and that's going to prove pivotal in the race to victory. And if things go properly at Singers tomorrow, I do think it will be a race, of sorts.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/2741AD2AC35E4522B51A4221E975DA4A.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 5:37:44 PM)

Could your fast TFs have done underway replenishment during the turn? Not sure what message notification you would get of this.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 5:41:41 PM)

No replenishment of any kind. All TFs are 100% ammo and full on fuel.

(It's not a puzzle I'm trying to solve, because I've already checked out all the variables. As noted above, I'm pretty sure it's simply the number of TFs in a complicated Lead/Follow arrangement.)



crsutton -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 6:27:39 PM)

Holy cow! You still playing this thing? [;)]



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 6:34:07 PM)

Hey, Ross, I think of you all the time! IE, you're missed around these parts. I just pondered your disappearance yesterday, figuring you'd had your fill and moved on to new endeavors and pursuits.

Emmylou Harris!



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/4/2019 7:39:05 PM)

2/18/45

Singapore: A most promising attack today. Reduction and taking the base should now be a mathematical progression. It's going to take awhile but I don't think it's going to be costly nor endless. Probably 4-6 weeks.



[image]local://upfiles/8143/57CE5286601442C8B0E62BADD78B9B17.jpg[/image]



Capt. Harlock -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 3:47:08 AM)

quote:

Singapore: A most promising attack today. Reduction and taking the base should now be a mathematical progression.


Especially encouraging is the performance of the Allied engineers, after the decimation of the first attack. How soon do you expect the naval bombardments to start?



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 10:13:37 AM)

The bombardment was to begin on the 20th. I just played that turn - no bombardment (the TF did one of those weird one-hex adjustments that can be so aggravating: "Hey, computer, can't you get something this simple right?"). The first will take place tonight (presumably). A second BB TF is moving into position to join the effort. The two will rotate. Also, on the 21st, some of the armor will attack. We'll get another look at IJA adjusted AV, this time with forts at 7.



Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 1:07:47 PM)

2/19/45 to 2/21/45

The Northern Front: Escorted daytime B-29s made a mess of Takao, Formosa's airfield, destroying 100+ aircraft on the ground. Dave keeps basing aircraft forward. With the P-51Ds available for escort duty, daytime raids are efficient and effective. Over on Luzon, the Allied army moving down the peninsula will arrive at Naga in about three or four days. A smaller, mobile army is about to move on Aparri. I don't think John has seriously reinforced the little unit that landed without any guns. If that's true, the base should fall quickly. Lots of engineers are inbound. Getting the airfield built is probably the greatest single priority now.

Singapore: Allied BB TF bombards, doing minimal damage but not encountering any guns or mines. So the bombardment routine will help keep the enemy garrison "rattled" and disrupted.

Probing Allied deliberate attack by elements of armor gives an adjusted enemy AV of just 5400 (see results below). This is a huge decline. The base is going to fall inside the month, unless there are real issues with dice rolls.

Ground combat at Singapore (50,84)

Allied Deliberate attack

Attacking force 13412 troops, 573 guns, 1319 vehicles, Assault Value = 3606

Defending force 97115 troops, 1263 guns, 2650 vehicles, Assault Value = 2657

Allied adjusted assault: 314

Japanese adjusted defense: 5497

Allied assault odds: 1 to 17 (fort level 7)

Combat modifiers
Defender: terrain(+), forts(+), leaders(+), disruption(-)
experience(-), supply(-)
Attacker:

Japanese ground losses:
235 casualties reported
Squads: 14 destroyed, 6 disabled
Non Combat: 1 destroyed, 5 disabled
Engineers: 1 destroyed, 4 disabled
Guns lost 11 (4 destroyed, 7 disabled)
Vehicles lost 20 (5 destroyed, 15 disabled)

Allied ground losses:
Guns lost 30 (7 destroyed, 23 disabled)
Vehicles lost 250 (26 destroyed, 224 disabled)




Canoerebel -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 6:27:28 PM)

2/22/45 to 2/24/45

Luzon: Allies reclaim Aparri and it's level 8 airfield. Presto, instant Strategic Bombing campaign (well, that would be true if the B-29s were ready; they need another four or five days of rest after heavy and important campaigning). The reinforcing army from Borneo is unloading near Manila.

Singapore: Next Allied attack in about a week. Is Singers worth the effort? In this particular game, maybe not. I could've devoted that 6k-AV army and the air force to China, pushing deep and probably expediting the Strategic Bombing campaign. Here the Allies may score 3k or 4k points for Singers (base and army losses). Perhaps I could've done that much or more in China or Formosa or whatever. In many games, however, Singers is needed for its Shipyard or to facilitate the movement of ships. And in some games, the Allies aren't position to do deeper things anyway. But in this particular game, I might've been better off inserting this army at Kwangchowan or Swatow.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/3C14AEEFC08E4AC08F242FBC1C0C3151.jpg[/image]



BillBrown -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 6:42:58 PM)

I hope John is not reinforcing in this game. [;)]



BBfanboy -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 7:53:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillBrown

I hope John is not reinforcing in this game. [;)]

I am sure he is not - Dan's opponent is Fabertong (Dave).



BillBrown -> RE: Intellectus Ex Nihilo (Wal-Mart on Ice) (12/5/2019 9:13:17 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

2/19/45 to 2/21/45

The Northern Front: Escorted daytime B-29s made a mess of Takao, Formosa's airfield, destroying 100+ aircraft on the ground. Dave keeps basing aircraft forward. With the P-51Ds available for escort duty, daytime raids are efficient and effective. Over on Luzon, the Allied army moving down the peninsula will arrive at Naga in about three or four days. A smaller, mobile army is about to move on Aparri. I don't think John has seriously reinforced the little unit that landed without any guns. If that's
... Snipped





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