RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (Full Version)

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aaffins -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/1/2020 7:41:42 PM)

June 3-10, 1942

Haven't updated in a bit but the game is still going reasonably strong. We missed a day or two last week and our opponent started talking about needing to begin a second game, which I thought was a bit unnecessary. I do have the sense he's a bit disinterested, but perhaps I'm misreading the situation. Rather than go day by day I'll just give a theater by theater summary of the last week of "action".

Burma:

We have continued our aerial bombardment of Akyab. The airfield and port are shut down. Three Japanese divisions remain trapped - the 16th, 48th and Imperial Guards - I am surprised he has not tried to either evacuate them or done something to try to relieve the pressure. The last convoy before we closed things down was nearly a month ago, so I would imagine supplies will become an issue at some point. We are assembling units at Cox's Bazar to possibly try to dislodge him on the ground but we don't really have enough AV at present. The 2nd Brit Div has just started arriving at Aden, once we get them to the front we may be able to.

We've determined that long term we think this area may very well be his weakpoint. He's poured so many resources into the SoPac we suspect he'd be vulnerable to an offensive in this theater.

China:

No significant action. Sinyang and Nanyang remain surrounded but have too many troops and are too entrenched for him to do anything as yet. Stalemates at Sian, Changsha, Kukong and Wenchow.

Australia:

Cairns fell as expected, here's the collection of units he did not manage to evac:

3rd Engineer Construction Battalion
22nd Ind.AA Gun Co
92nd JAAF AF Bn
21st Div /23
9th Field AF Construction Battalion
33rd Div /44

The final assault was only opposed by an AV of 13 so I suspect those division fragments were support.

He has spent most of the last week evacuating Cooktown under cover of the KB, or at least a significant part of it. We've probed a little bit, but could not afford to fight another pitched aerial battle with our P-40 pool empty.

Pacific:

We have finally recaptured Raoul I.

Here's the units we destroyed there:

43rd Nav Gd /1
34th JNAF AF Unit
6th Air Defense AA Regiment
7th Air Defense AA Regiment
42nd Nav Gd /10


The Lexington and Saratoga completed their upgrade at Pearl. We've decided to send them to the Aleutians. Objective is twofold - we want to reinforce Dutch Harbor and Cold Bay, which is moderately risky with Betties flying out of Adak, and we've seen a lot of shipping in the area we'd like to raid.

Our other carriers are around Raoul I. The IJN CVs disappeared 2 days ago after the enemy TFs cleared out of Cooktown.



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/2/2020 7:57:08 PM)

Essentially, the tide has turned. Far earlier than I thought it would to be honest. The Akyab situation is a major problem for our opponent. He can slowly march them out, but that will take a toll.

Hardest part now will be measuring our next moves. Essentially, if we kept the exact same lines for one year game time, we could win by sheer press of weight. Where's the fun in that? There are plenty of lessons in this forum about what happens when the Allies overextend on an early push, so we will need to be careful.




Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/10/2020 8:11:03 PM)

I've let this AAR slip, apologies. There have been some interesting events recently.

Of note: Japanese airpower has been repeatedly smashed over Burma. Allied sweeps have consistently claimed 2-1 wins, including over some IJN CV Zero squadrons. The IGD was likely pulled out in the last furball, as allied bombers missed on day one and chose not to fly on day two. Still, has has over 55k troops stuck @ Akyab, suffering from daily bombing. With Raoul in hand, bombing and bombardments have redoubled at Lord Howe and Norfolk. They go unopposed, though a large CA TF is spotted 13 hexes north of LHI.

The game is summed up by our CV dispositions: near at hand, but both sides too tentative to maneuver into seas that the other could hit. Makes for a dull AAR, but is hugely to our advantage.

China seems to be a backwater morass for the RADM, where he is in danger of being stalemated in mid-'42. Were I in his shoes, I'd have this Guy Ritchie line in my head: "Alarm bells are ringing, Willy."


A nice bellwether for the Allied player - getting those damned Devastators out of play and replacing them with actual planes.



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/11/2020 7:26:40 PM)

I've let this AAR slip, to the detriment of the readers. Fins and I both have jobs that sometimes require a few extra hours here and there, but that's not much of an excuse. Neither are the ramped-up personal life commitments, or the 7 soccer teams I signed up for to de-stress from the prior two points excuses.

Started this AAR, and dag'gum it, gonna finish it.

Captain's log, Stardate 26.1254.235.something-something:

So! What do we have here? An opponent that has functionally not advanced for over 2 months game time. Fins, through his mastery of land combat, has successfully pushed him back on multiple fronts: Akyab/Chittagong, NE OZ, and Raoul. What does that mean? These are possessions that many Allied players simply never lose, so there's that. These aren't the only easily hit bases. Yamaguchi has gone up to Dutch Harbor in the North, and there are a few isolated islands that we can flip back. Finally, even though there was a great read from CR on why the Allies shouldn't over-commit in'42, I'd be curious to get his & others thoughts on a potential axis of attack.

The IJN is entirely intact, we plan on changing that.



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 7:21:26 AM)

I know you guys are busy with metric football and the like, but this could be a good time to lay out the strategic situation, you know, like a theater by theater analysis of force dispositions such as you see in a few other AARs, complete with map screenshots. Just an idea.

The old way of thinking was get into a massive attrition battle at around this time, as that seems to favor the Allies (like Guadalcanal did in real life). However, an insight gleaned from Canoerebel's recent AAR is to keep the VP denominator down. That means don't give the Japanese excessive points for land, air or sea losses as at the end of the day you have to win by a 2:1 VP spread. So, the argument would be yes, you have to gain territory to ultimately threaten Japan with strategic bombing (I'd say from Formosa, the Ningpo area, northern Luzon or Hokkaido), but you should try to minimize the battles in which you are not piling up VPs by at least 2:1 ratio.

Cheers,
CB



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:05:51 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

I know you guys are busy with metric football and the like, but this could be a good time to lay out the strategic situation, you know, like a theater by theater analysis of force dispositions such as you see in a few other AARs, complete with map screenshots. Just an idea.

The old way of thinking was get into a massive attrition battle at around this time, as that seems to favor the Allies (like Guadalcanal did in real life). However, an insight gleaned from Canoerebel's recent AAR is to keep the VP denominator down. That means don't give the Japanese excessive points for land, air or sea losses as at the end of the day you have to win by a 2:1 VP spread. So, the argument would be yes, you have to gain territory to ultimately threaten Japan with strategic bombing (I'd say from Formosa, the Ningpo area, northern Luzon or Hokkaido), but you should try to minimize the battles in which you are not piling up VPs by at least 2:1 ratio.

Cheers,
CB


You're one step ahead on AAR planning and 100 on campaign strategy. Game date 6.22.42

[image]local://upfiles/36542/EEFC6D4255A24503B5357DBFDD533CA2.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:06:38 PM)

Alaska

[image]local://upfiles/36542/03E35A856E554BFCBC7F2AC7FD42D0A0.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:08:39 PM)

LHI and Norfolk still have active search planes. Daily bombing on ground troops at LHI produces consistent casualties without resistance. Example:

Morning Air attack on 8th JNAF AF Unit , at 100,169 (Lord Howe Island)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 5

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
46 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb

[image]local://upfiles/36542/6968E0DC4BF54C76ADC81ADA60422BC7.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:10:09 PM)

Burma & the IO

Currently, the only real active front. Competing fighter sweeps and bombardments are still favoring the Allies, but Beefheart raises a good point about overall point tally.

[image]local://upfiles/36542/C2FD0D6A1D914417A815728C4AAB0631.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:10:59 PM)

NE OZ

mopping up remnant forces. The relative AV is so lopsided, it's not even worth going into

[image]local://upfiles/36542/AE8975F8957647C29A11A1095F3DF62E.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:12:27 PM)

If you can't tell, we are going from worst to best. This is the good stuff.

China

[image]local://upfiles/36542/71C86BCEA88840D385CB11B21119B199.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:13:02 PM)

Good stuff, part duex.


[image]local://upfiles/36542/1DD169009CBB4CF4842A98FB123D7084.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:17:55 PM)

points tally. I'm not sure what would qualify for "low" at this point in the war. Have a feeling we are towards the middle of the pack. I enjoy staring at the relative plane losses.

[image]local://upfiles/36542/40B3849D88E6477A83C5E06967FEFE3B.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:22:04 PM)

less fun reading:

[image]local://upfiles/36542/8DC37B96D9AD443CB220FE1054BE11EC.jpg[/image]



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/12/2020 2:25:18 PM)

Not likely to face further incursion, but we are well prepared for it across the Pacific. Example:

[image]local://upfiles/36542/4F354EF24711418F957393946E4C6B69.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/13/2020 1:51:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cheesesteak

LHI and Norfolk still have active search planes. Daily bombing on ground troops at LHI produces consistent casualties without resistance. Example:

Morning Air attack on 8th JNAF AF Unit , at 100,169 (Lord Howe Island)

Weather in hex: Clear sky

Raid spotted at 19 NM, estimated altitude 10,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 5 minutes

Allied aircraft
B-17E Fortress x 5

No Allied losses

Japanese ground losses:
46 casualties reported
Squads: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled
Non Combat: 0 destroyed, 10 disabled
Engineers: 0 destroyed, 0 disabled

Aircraft Attacking:
5 x B-17E Fortress bombing from 6000 feet
Ground Attack: 8 x 500 lb GP Bomb


That works out to 4.6 persons per disabled squad. 10 is full strength for a support squad. When the squad takes some more casualties and gets down to about 3 people or less, the squad ceases to be viable as an entity and it becomes destroyed. So my guess is that you are very close to getting lots of destroyed squads from your attacks.



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/13/2020 2:02:12 AM)



[/quote]
That works out to 4.6 persons per disabled squad. 10 is full strength for a support squad. When the squad takes some more casualties and gets down to about 3 people or less, the squad ceases to be viable as an entity and it becomes destroyed. So my guess is that you are very close to getting lots of destroyed squads from your attacks.
[/quote]

fighting a cold at the moment, and read the first part of your post as though it was a LSAT question.



Alfred -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/13/2020 2:13:15 AM)

A single, ready support device, represents 12 men.

Alfred



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/13/2020 2:16:42 AM)

Thanks. Have you considered keeping him interested in SoPac while going big in the Aleutians?

Cheers,
CB



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/13/2020 1:42:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

Thanks. Have you considered keeping him interested in SoPac while going big in the Aleutians?

Cheers,
CB



So/CenPac are two areas we can make hay. Keeping him interested with enough force to take advantage of the situation if he doesn't counter.

Controversial take - I don't consider the Aleutians to be overly relevant. If anything, I see it as a place to be leapfrogged (if you hold Midway).



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/28/2020 3:21:17 PM)

Fins is currently out of town, so Gooch and I turned a few furious turns around.

We had 4-6 turns of the pleasantly quiet variety. Akyab is fully occupied by the Allies. Sloppy play on our part let him net more frames destroyed from bombardments than should've been the case. Still, we've returned the favor over the skies of Mandalay, consistently scoring 4-1 to 7-1 favorable trades on sweeps. The Oscars simply can't deal. I'll keep this up as long as he still puts CAP up. The second it goes down, a metal rain will fall on the airfield.

Most of our naval forces in the SoPac have returned from patrols for minor repairs. I've sent intercepting 2DD tfs to harass potential AP sightings at Norfolk Island. They haven't hit anything, but hopefully it will force him to either escort more fully or abandon.



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/28/2020 4:28:41 PM)

If we still have any readers after our hiatus, wanted to give a shout out to CR and I think Obvert for flagging the advantage of low VP scores for Allied players. It makes sense on the tactical side of house (air frame and LCU pools, etc), but the strategic part is even better.



Encircled -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (2/29/2020 3:50:29 PM)

Yeah

I won my last game in Sept 44 with the Allied army about to enter Manchuria after clearing out China, but my VP advantage was barely over 3 to 1 because of my high air, land and naval losses.



CaptBeefheart -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/3/2020 4:05:30 AM)

Good to see you gents back in action.

Cheers,
CB



Bif1961 -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/3/2020 5:10:50 PM)

Your readers are still here and waiting with bated breath for another installment.



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/3/2020 6:37:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Bif1961

Your readers are still here and waiting with bated breath for another installment.


Can't wait to disappoint! When I get home from work I'll post some combat reports.

I don't mean to be critical of our opponent, because it's too early to say for sure, but I'm fairly confident he's overextended. We have been playing a fun (for me) cat and mouse game around Lord Howe and Norfolk islands. Essentially, Fins has set our reposte up such that he has been unable to make these bases functional for anything besides float planes.

So what, you may say? I can imagine a lot of IJ players would love to have eyes that deep in the SoPac. OZ still has plenty of fuel and supplies, and we've ejected all red boxes out of Eastern OZ. He doesn't now have the forces to advance (Raoul is heavily garrisoned, and odds of reinvading OZ are near zero). That leaves him with two outposts he appears intent on keeping, but can't defend without the KB. Harassing SCTFs, Bombardment TFs, and TFs feinting dives in but backing out have, for now, scared away resupply TFs.

Noumea and Luganville have been built up, with major HQ units having been flagged by SigInt at the latter. Can someone more strategically inclined explain to me why he has created a pocket that could be circumvented? He seems utterly confident in naval supremacy. At this point, he has reason to be. But the time is fast approaching where our Carriers would welcome a toe-to-toe battle close to friendly ports, with him being so very far from any repair shipyards.




CaptBeefheart -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/4/2020 2:34:18 AM)

You probably have thought of this, but a CenPac offensive might do the trick. He'll either have to withdraw from those exposed positions or you'll cut him off. Do you still have Funafuti, Tabiteau (sp?), Nauru or Ocean? Are any of those vulnerable if he has them?

Cheers,
CB



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/4/2020 1:15:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart

You probably have thought of this, but a CenPac offensive might do the trick. He'll either have to withdraw from those exposed positions or you'll cut him off. Do you still have Funafuti, Tabiteau (sp?), Nauru or Ocean? Are any of those vulnerable if he has them?

Cheers,
CB


He just caught us reinforcing Tabiteuauaueueuea (sp).

And you're spot on. To paraphrase Gandalf, things are now in motion which *can* be undone.



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/4/2020 6:21:47 PM)

Good, bad, and meh

AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR Jul 06, 42
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ASW attack near Koggala at 29,51

Japanese Ships
SS RO-63, hits 8, on fire, heavy damage

Allied Ships
KV Hollyhock

SS RO-63 is sighted by escort
KV Hollyhock attacking submerged sub ....
Large oil slick appears over area of attack!
Escort abandons search for sub



Cheesesteak -> RE: Always with them negative waves... Aaffins/Cheesesteak v. RADM Yamaguchi (3/4/2020 6:23:08 PM)

good:

Afternoon Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 20 NM, estimated altitude 21,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 4 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 10
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 4
Ki-45 KAIa Nick x 2

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 14

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 2 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed

Allied aircraft losses
Hurricane IIb Trop: 1 destroyed

Aircraft Attacking:
11 x Hurricane IIb Trop sweeping at 20000 feet

CAP engaged:
264th Sentai with Ki-45 KAIa Nick (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
(2 plane(s) diverted to support CAP in hex.)
0 plane(s) not yet engaged, 2 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 6000.
Raid is overhead
64th Sentai/A with Ki-43-Ia Oscar (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
2 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters between 0 and 5000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 24 minutes
64th Sentai/B with Ki-43-Ia Oscar (0 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 17 minutes
64th Sentai/C with Ki-43-Ia Oscar (0 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 15 minutes
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (0 airborne, 3 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 0 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 13 minutes



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Afternoon Air attack on Mandalay , at 59,46

Weather in hex: Partial cloud

Raid spotted at 38 NM, estimated altitude 22,000 feet.
Estimated time to target is 9 minutes

Japanese aircraft
Ki-43-Ia Oscar x 2
Ki-44-IIa Tojo x 2

Allied aircraft
Hurricane IIb Trop x 16

Japanese aircraft losses
Ki-43-Ia Oscar: 1 destroyed
Ki-44-IIa Tojo: 1 destroyed

No Allied losses

Aircraft Attacking:
15 x Hurricane IIb Trop sweeping at 20000 feet

CAP engaged:
11th Sentai with Ki-44-IIa Tojo (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 5000 , scrambling fighters to 7000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 12 minutes
64th Sentai/B with Ki-43-Ia Oscar (0 airborne, 0 on standby, 0 scrambling)
1 plane(s) not yet engaged, 1 being recalled, 0 out of immediate contact.
Group patrol altitude is 6000 , scrambling fighters to 10000.
Time for all group planes to reach interception is 16 minutes



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