Statistical musings - PBEM endings

Statistical musings - PBEM endings (Full Version)

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LargeSlowTarget -> Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/21/2019 7:16:26 AM)
I'm curious about how long PBEM games tend to last and the reasons they ended, so I have made a little poll. Two actually, one for Allied-side players who have "won" and one for Japanese-side players who have "won". Not asking for lost games in order to avoid counting the same game twice in case the opponent answers the poll as well. I would be happy if PBEMers who have played a "historical" - i.e. stock scenario 1 or 6 or a DBB scenario 28 or 29 - full campaign game take the time to answer. I would like to exclude other scenarios and mods which often "beef-up" the Orbat with more toys for the moment. For those who have multiple games under their belts - the polls allow multiple choices and can be run mutiple times if you need to submit the same results more than once, e.g. if you have had three auto-victories in 1944, you can submit the poll three times. It is the first time I create a poll so I hope the setup makes sense. So here you go: Allied-side players Japanese-side players Here is an example of how the poll looks like: [image]local://upfiles/1313/0F68BB594641423A83B4C6A056E9806F.jpg[/image] EDIT Jan 11,2021: Looks like adding new votes after the poll lay dormant for more than a year has broken it, the number of votes has actually diminished since 2019. So unfortunately it is pointless to continue this exercise [:(]

Lokasenna -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/22/2019 7:33:57 PM)
I know it's informal, but given the victory conditions for the game engine I fully expect to see at least 3x as many Allied victories than Japanese victories - even if you were to only count those games that ended on the game's terms, not being abandoned.

Barb -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 10:03:26 AM)
Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D

Lokasenna -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 4:39:05 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Barb Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D Well, he did list them...

BillBrown -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 5:12:48 PM)
I listed one, March 1943, opponent quit sending turns and did not answer you email. Nothing since 3 July.

rustysi -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 7:31:52 PM)
quote: opponent quit sending turns and did not answer you email. Just to chime in here way ahead of time, if any such thing happens to my opponent, rest assured that something has gone seriously wrong IRL. Short of my demise (and maybe not even that[:D]), I'll get back to you when I can.

Chickenboy -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 10:30:09 PM)
I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(]

geofflambert -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 10:45:23 PM)
On five occasions when I when I was playing Allied I completely sank the KB by May or June of '42 and my opponent quit. On one occasion my opponent wanted to try again and the same result occurred. I guess that counts as "rage quitting".

Chickenboy -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 10:46:15 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: geofflambert On five occasions when I when I was playing Allied I completely sank the KB by May or June of '42 and my opponent quit. On one occasion my opponent wanted to try again and the same result occurred. I guess that counts as "rage quitting". So, for purposes of tabulation of results, did that last match count as two rage quits or one?

geofflambert -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 11:01:38 PM)
Should be two. We started over from scratch and he made the exact same mistake, sending the KB well beyond his land based search arcs SW of New Caledonia. I saw him coming, he didn't see me until it was too late. I'm pretty sure I did AARs on all those. None of those guys post anymore, they just disappeared. The one who repeated was from Arizona. One was a Pole. One was a Czech. One was an Australian. The Czech guy just disappeared so I don't think he counts. But it seems like there was one more and I can't remember where he was from.

Jorge_Stanbury -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/23/2019 11:05:34 PM)
2 PBEM games, one Allied, on Japanese Allied ended in early 1943 Japanese mid to end of 1942 both ended in victory after opponents disappeared

spence -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 12:25:48 AM)
I only play Allies in PBEM AE/WitP. I have never played a PBEM game to "The Bitter End" (in Witp:AE - I have played exactly one PBEM game of UV0 as the Japanese to "The Bitter End" and lost that one. I have started many games of AE(latest Betas with Vanillas mostly)/WitP(Vanilla)/WitP(CHS). If one considers a quit game as a victory for their opponent then I have won a bunch but unknown number of games as the Allies and have lost 2 as Allies for the same reason. I suspect that; at least in the "olden days", the number of quitters was high. Now, maybe not so much, but still substantial.

geofflambert -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 12:37:25 AM)
Quitting is so unnecessary. You can always find somebody to take over your game if you just can't play anymore.

Barb -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 8:17:35 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote: ORIGINAL: Barb Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D Well, he did list them... Yup, my bad :) Did vote there already - IIRC (all scen 1/DBB) 3x Jap opponent quit 1x Allied opponent quit - currently one game each side in 1944 (one on hold for personal reasons).

GetAssista -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 8:28:17 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Barb Does "Opponent disappeared" or "Opponent frustrated to quit" count as victories? :D "..What I do have are a very particular set of skills, skills I have acquired over a very long WITP career. If you concede your defeat now, that'll be the end of it. I will not look for you, I will not pursue you. But if you don't, I will look for you, I will find you, and I will end this campaign officially."

obvert -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 11:13:35 AM)
The list of possible ending should include quit for personal reasons. GreyJoy and I had a game in 43, going well, and he had to discontinue. It had nothing to do with the game or anything happening within it. I bet it's one of the most common categories for games ending, as evidenced by some of the posts above.

jwolf -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 1:24:44 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: obvert The list of possible ending should include quit for personal reasons. Or at least, reasons not directly connected to the game. My one and only PBEM experience was a newbie vs. newbie game against Malagant, he as Japan and I as Allies. The game got only about 5 months in, to mid-May of 1942, when he vanished from communication. But the Japanese were dominating my forces easily pretty much everywhere, and as far as I could tell they were in a very good position. I could only guess that he had some sort of personal circumstances that came up; perhaps even a tragedy, but I never knew. In any case it would be grossly dishonest for me to count this as a victory even though my opponent did quit.

Chickenboy -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 4:44:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: jwolf quote: ORIGINAL: obvert The list of possible ending should include quit for personal reasons. Or at least, reasons not directly connected to the game. My one and only PBEM experience was a newbie vs. newbie game against Malagant, he as Japan and I as Allies. The game got only about 5 months in, to mid-May of 1942, when he vanished from communication. But the Japanese were dominating my forces easily pretty much everywhere, and as far as I could tell they were in a very good position. I could only guess that he had some sort of personal circumstances that came up; perhaps even a tragedy, but I never knew. In any case it would be grossly dishonest for me to count this as a victory even though my opponent did quit. I respectfully disagree. An opponent that drops a game without communicating the reasons why or offering an 'out' for another player to step into his stead is breaking the pact. Quitting like that is tantamount to admitting defeat. It's certainly understandable if they have a terminal health problem, but-in your case-it's far more likely that the person just became bored with the game and 'ghosted' you. I consider that sort of action to be extremely disrespectful and it's worthy of putting them in the box of 'losers'. How hard would it have been for your opponent to send you an email to clarify this? After you spent hundreds of hours on the game, he just disappears? Seriously, how long does it take to send an email saying, "I'm not having fun with this game. I'm sorry, but I can't do this for another 4 years. I resign. You win. Thanks for the game." Again, if he's sick and / or dead, I get it. But the vast majority of games ending aren't because someone dies. Unless that happens (it's happened three times to me), they have no right to say anything other than 'they lost'.

Lokasenna -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 5:16:02 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(] Add to list: never play Chickenboy.

Chickenboy -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 5:17:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(] Add to list: never play Chickenboy. It'll be the last game you play of WiTP:AE. [:(] I semi-jokingly, semi-seriously asked after the health of my current opponent (AcePylut) before we started our game together. He says he is feeling fine so far, but history shows that he's got 6 months-1.5 years at the most. Maybe I should start suggesting 2-day turns in the future? [:D]

rustysi -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 8:51:33 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(] Add to list: never play Chickenboy. Ya think.[:)]

USSAmerica -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 9:05:30 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rustysi quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(] Add to list: never play Chickenboy. Ya think.[:)] AW1 Steve and I played Chickenboy and Mynok in a 2x2 game and we both lived to tell the tale. [:D] Speaking of which, I didn't see that game listed in CB's post above for his poll answers. [:'(] (Granted, his partner had to withdraw from the game due to life circumstances and I recall a LOT of Japanese troops cut off and trapped inland in Northern Oz... ) [sm=innocent0009.gif]

Chickenboy -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 9:34:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica quote: ORIGINAL: rustysi quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(] Add to list: never play Chickenboy. Ya think.[:)] AW1 Steve and I played Chickenboy and Mynok in a 2x2 game and we both lived to tell the tale. [:D] Speaking of which, I didn't see that game listed in CB's post above for his poll answers. [:'(] (Granted, his partner had to withdraw from the game due to life circumstances and I recall a LOT of Japanese troops cut off and trapped inland in Northern Oz... ) [sm=innocent0009.gif] If you read the poll question carefully, you'll see why I didn't include that in the poll answer, knucklehead. "I have WON a WITP-AE full campaign game with stock or DBB scenarios playing the Japanese side because" [:'(] That 2x2 did NOT end in a Japanese victory. Yeah, after my IJN partner bailed on the game, I was left holding the IJA bag. And by 'bag', I mean the bag full of flaming dog***. That was an unenviable strategic position, wasn't it? By the way, what became of Lexington, Enterprise, Hornet* and Yorktown in that game? [:D]

Chickenboy -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/24/2019 9:35:34 PM)
Which reminds me, is Mynok still alive? [:D]

USSAmerica -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/25/2019 1:33:13 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: USSAmerica quote: ORIGINAL: rustysi quote: ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy I listed two reasons: 1x Autovictory 1943 3x Opponent dropped the game (specifically, opponent died) [:(] Add to list: never play Chickenboy. Ya think.[:)] AW1 Steve and I played Chickenboy and Mynok in a 2x2 game and we both lived to tell the tale. [:D] Speaking of which, I didn't see that game listed in CB's post above for his poll answers. [:'(] (Granted, his partner had to withdraw from the game due to life circumstances and I recall a LOT of Japanese troops cut off and trapped inland in Northern Oz... ) [sm=innocent0009.gif] If you read the poll question carefully, you'll see why I didn't include that in the poll answer, knucklehead. "I have WON a WITP-AE full campaign game with stock or DBB scenarios playing the Japanese side because" [:'(] That 2x2 did NOT end in a Japanese victory. Yeah, after my IJN partner bailed on the game, I was left holding the IJA bag. And by 'bag', I mean the bag full of flaming dog***. That was an unenviable strategic position, wasn't it? By the way, what became of Lexington, Enterprise, Hornet* and Yorktown in that game? [:D] Oh, that's right! This one should go on MY and Steve's lists! [:D] I don't know what happened to those CV's in that game. Steve was running the USN. [sm=innocent0009.gif] [:'(]

USSAmerica -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/25/2019 1:44:21 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy Which reminds me, is Mynok still alive? [:D] I haven't talked to him in a long time. Actually since you and Steve visited here while Torsten was here. I hope he is well.

pontiouspilot -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/25/2019 8:42:45 PM)
There...I just voted for all the games I can remember....I still have 3 ongoing

JoV -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (7/25/2019 11:59:40 PM)
Have had two games, both as Japan. One where my opponent disappeared July 42, the other where I conceded in early January 42 as I felt it wasn't a good matchup for either of us. Interesting to see what results this might throw up. Once you get into late 42 I imagine a decent proportion of games subsequently go fairly deep.

LargeSlowTarget -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (1/10/2021 6:51:41 PM)
Bump for games which have ended since the last post in 2019. Stats so far show that about half the games end due to rage-quitting / abandoning / personal reasons. Discounting the 1941/1942 surrenders which I suspect are due to player mismatch, beginner mistakes etc., there are 11 Japanese "wins" including 4 auto-victories and 14 Allied "wins" including 4 auto-victories. Just taking the games which have reached 1945 and beyond, there are 2 "wins" for Japan and 6 "wins" for the Allies.

Ambassador -> RE: Statistical musings - PBEM endings (1/10/2021 7:29:16 PM)
I have added one result (1945 auto victory for the Allies), game finished in 2016 (or 17 ? Hard to tell) but I hadn�t seen your poll (I barely haunted it the last few years). Very interesting. quote: ORIGINAL: LargeSlowTarget Stats so far show that about half the games end due to rage-quitting / abandoning. Sudden carrier loss syndrome ?

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