warspite1 -> RE: Would the US have declared war on Germany? (12/21/2019 11:22:35 PM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock The above is not at all clear to me. The fall of Malta would have dramatically changed the situation in North Africa. warspite1 Why? We are talking about the period from 10th December 1941, when the US haven’t come into the war, to the end of 1942 when I suggested that the effect of the missing US forces would be less pronounced than from Torch onwards. I would be interested to know what percentage of Axis supplies you believe the RN interdicted in that time. You appear to be under the impression that it was substantially more than was actually the case. You also appear to have neglected the actual port capacity limitations of the Italian North African ports and what the Germans could afford to throw into North Africa in the middle of Blau. quote:
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock There is good reason to believe that with sufficient fuel and other supplies, Rommel would have broken through and captured Alexandria and Cairo. warspite1 Well I’m quite sure with ‘sufficient fuel and other supplies’ Rommel would have broken through. But what supplies did the Axis forces not have that a) would have been available without Malta in British hands and, b) would have made the difference? Fact was, Rommel lost very little in terms of supply by the time his advance was blunted by Auchinleck. Even if your best case scenario comes to pass and Germany proceeds with the invasion of Malta in early/mid 1942, then this does not materially affect Rommel's situation for the battles of Alam Halfa and El-Alamein. quote:
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock From there, the Axis could have advanced further into the Middle East (where there were a number of Arabs willing to fight against the British), closed off the southern supply route to Russia through Iran and Iraq, and seized the oil fields. warspite1 Where is all the oil, shipping and supplies coming from for all this? How much of the oil that the Germans capture (even if that was even possible) is going to be available for use anytime soon? quote:
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock And yes, Malta might well have fallen without the Spitfires delivered by the Wasp and especially without the fuel delivered by the SS Ohio. warspite1 So you agree with me, although I’ve said I believe Malta would likely have to be abandoned – I was referring to later when the Germans either fell back and held Tunisia or retreated to Sicily, but it could have been a bit earlier sure. But in order for Rommel to have achieved a different outcome in Egypt then you are talking about a defeat of Malta in early to mid-1942. How does that happen? Look at what happened to Malta from the time of the Luftwaffe return in December 1941, to the removal from Sicily. Look at German/Italian planning for the taking of Malta in 1942 and why it was cancelled. Look too at what happened to half the Spitfires delivered by Wasp. quote:
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock One last point: after Singapore and Tobruk, Malta might have been the last straw for the British public, and Churchill might have been forced to resign as Prime Minister. warspite1 So again you agree with me. As said, a state of total war with no hope of an end cannot be endured forever. Yes, maybe the loss of Malta would have been the straw that broke the camel’s back and lead to a bonus for Germany? quote:
ORIGINAL: Capt. Harlock That being said, I believe that Roosevelt would have found a way to get a declaration of war against Germany, because it was an ally of Japan, and because the U-boats would likely have continued to sink American destroyers escorting the Atlantic convoys. warspite1 Yes, this seems to be the general consensus.
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