Bad Luck? (Full Version)

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Rogue188 -> Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 8:01:27 AM)

I decided to load up an older AndyMac May '42 campaign and just finished by 10th attempt to hold my own in the Coral Sea. The Japanese TF is not the historical Japanese OOB, but I am taking Lexington and Yorktown up against 1 CV and 2 CVLs. The results for me have been varying degrees of disastrous. My best result was Lex and Yorktown badly damaged with bomb hits on all three Japanese carriers. My most common result is 1 hit on the CV and 2 hits on one CVL. With the Japanese severely damaging or outright sinking Lex and/or Yorktown along with heavily damaging all 5 of my CAs. My worst results are 0 hits on the Japanese TF with the loss of Lex and Yorktown. I have a good admiral and the carrier air wings look decent, but am I biting off more than I can chew? Why am I getting such bad results??




Kursk1943 -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 8:34:55 AM)

From what I know it is the case that the programmers have substantially beefed up the Japananese AI in order to ensure a challenging game. So either in a grand campaign or a short scenario: Stay away from carrier duels in 1942 as an Allied! Even in 1943 it is most dangerous to try it. I learned it the hard way. [:(]
So it is not your fault to loose the way you described, it is nearly impossible to achieve the historical results as the Allied did in the carrier battles in 1942.




Trugrit -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 1:48:55 PM)


Before you resort to “bad luck” you might want to check the pilot skill levels in the scenario.

Typically Japanese carrier pilots are more skilled in the early war and they may have a slight edge in plane performance as well.

“There is very little difference between one person and another, but what little difference there is, is very important.”.....William James

Scenario 120:

[image]local://upfiles/49386/5F9D69A8CF354A5CA88183018BDA1AC5.jpg[/image]




BBfanboy -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 3:27:34 PM)

There are many things that can contribute to you "luck". Some you cannot change and some you can.

Did you select your admiral based on Naval Skill or Air Skill? For a CV TF, the latter is more important. Same for CV captains, although they should have decent Naval Skill as well to handle damage.

Did you put excellent leaders in your air squadrons? That may not be possible with the ones at sea, but any LBA you have should be checked.

Did you use your Patrol Aircraft, float planes and subs to get good detection on the Japanese TFs? Detection is very important to drive initiative and effective attacks. If you have some small fry naval vessels you could also send them out as pickets.

Did you choose the right mix of CAP% vs. escort for your CV fighters? Was your CAP at a suitable altitude to intercept enemy air strikes? If you are too high by 5000 feet or more, your chances of an intercept shrink. Weather and detection time before intercept play a part in this, but being about 3000 feet above the enemy bombers is probably ideal.

Did you send all your CAs and CLs off on Surface Combat mission or keep them with your CVs for AA and to draw some of the air attacks?

Did you use waypoints or patrol zones to keep your TFs moving around instead of steaming in straight lines or remaining in one small area?

Those are just a few of the things that I though of - a thorough review of your situation and results would require lots of screenshots and description of what you tried to vary to get different results. It may be that the new AI script is too tough for the Allied player to beat, but I doubt it. For every measure there is usually a countermeasure.




coachi -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 4:06:10 PM)

Luck I just had both the prince of whales and repulse sunk on first turn. Before I even got to make any move.




Rogue188 -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 5:48:31 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

There are many things that can contribute to you "luck". Some you cannot change and some you can.

Did you select your admiral based on Naval Skill or Air Skill? For a CV TF, the latter is more important. Same for CV captains, although they should have decent Naval Skill as well to handle damage.

I picked Admiral Fredrick due to his high Air and Aggression skills of 87 and 74 respectively. The carriers have their default captains and I don't know their skill.

Did you put excellent leaders in your air squadrons? That may not be possible with the ones at sea, but any LBA you have should be checked.

I think have good leaders, but I don't have a break down of who is leading what. The Yorktown Dauntlesses are under strength due to a maximum range engagement from the previous day.

Did you use your Patrol Aircraft, float planes and subs to get good detection on the Japanese TFs? Detection is very important to drive initiative and effective attacks. If you have some small fry naval vessels you could also send them out as pickets.

The Japanese TF was between Port Moreby and Cooktown. As this campaign started May 1st and game time is May 9th, I don't have any submarines in position for detection. However, I have strong air search groups that located the Japanese TF easily.

Did you choose the right mix of CAP% vs. escort for your CV fighters? Was your CAP at a suitable altitude to intercept enemy air strikes? If you are too high by 5000 feet or more, your chances of an intercept shrink. Weather and detection time before intercept play a part in this, but being about 3000 feet above the enemy bombers is probably ideal.

I have my fighters on both carriers at Escort, 50% CAP, 10000'. Its the same as the bombers. I have no imagination.

Did you send all your CAs and CLs off on Surface Combat mission or keep them with your CVs for AA and to draw some of the air attacks?

Nope. I keep them with the carriers.

Did you use waypoints or patrol zones to keep your TFs moving around instead of steaming in straight lines or remaining in one small area?

I'm using waypoints, but I'm very close to the Japanese TF. Generally 6 hexes or less.

Those are just a few of the things that I though of - a thorough review of your situation and results would require lots of screenshots and description of what you tried to vary to get different results. It may be that the new AI script is too tough for the Allied player to beat, but I doubt it. For every measure there is usually a countermeasure.


I realize there is a lot that goes into a successful attack or its failure. Most of my pilots have an Exp/Air/NavBombing skill levels of 60-70. While I am trying to be good about not reloading a bad result, I was shocked just how bad this turned out. I tried to move the TF to different areas, get B-17s involved (to mess with the CAP), put Port Morseby on long range CAP, but nothing worked. The B-17s never launched and the Port Morseby Kittyhawks never joined in the attack. The consistent result I got was one strike from my carriers (AM) and at least two strikes from the Japanese (AM/PM). Even in the rare times I scored hits, it wouldn't be enough damage to prevent or limit the second strike. My airstrikes took severe damage and all the planes would divert to Port Morseby once the Japanese were done raking over my ships. I was hoping that I could catch the Japanese TF vulnerable with their airgroup busy bombing Port Morseby. Basically the Midway formula. However, that doesn't seem to work in the game.

Don't get me wrong, this isn't a complaint or rant. When I start the game from Dec 8th, I see better results quickly as my carriers get to practice on transports. I want to keep Port Moresby safe, but it doesn't look like starting a campaign in May without some sort of previous practice gives bad results for the Americans!




BBfanboy -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/1/2020 10:33:27 PM)

One thing about changing your luck: if you start from your initial game setup or any saved game, the die rolls for that turn are locked in unless you exit the game and restart it. Sometimes I even reboot the computer to change the seed in the random number generator (die roll).

Once I had an IJN sub get a single torpedo hit on a fast BB which then blew up in a magazine explosion. I tried re-running the turn while changing things like the TF routing, bringing in an ASW TF from nearby, air patrols - my BB blew up every time. So then I restarted the computer and the game and finally the sub did not appear at all. Bear in mind the AI can take ships in port and plunk them down anywhere on the map in a TF so your really have to interrupt that process.




Rogue188 -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/2/2020 12:01:54 AM)

Ugh. Too much work. I just called it. Run away and fight another day.




Rogue188 -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/2/2020 12:04:22 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: coachi

Luck I just had both the prince of whales and repulse sunk on first turn. Before I even got to make any move.


That is historical. If my Dec 7th turn goes well and I can save them, all the better. But I usually just write them off as a loss.




GetAssista -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/2/2020 9:04:49 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy
One thing about changing your luck: if you start from your initial game setup or any saved game, the die rolls for that turn are locked in unless you exit the game and restart it. Sometimes I even reboot the computer to change the seed in the random number generator (die roll).

To change how a turn plays out you need to give a materially different order to some of your TFs, airgroups or LCUs. Turn will play out differently starting from the moment this unit acts. Yeah, I've done it countless times so I know what I'm talking about
Be warned though, this is the ultimate save-scamming tool




Rogue188 -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/2/2020 8:07:24 PM)

Battle of the Coral Sea update! After I abandoned my attempts to strike the Japanese carrier TF (CV Zuiho with 2 CVLs) I sent my group to Sydney for fuel and get aircraft replacements. I had also ordered Enterprise and Saratoga to the Coral Sea with no plan on a major engagement. The computer started to make more runs at Port Morseby with Shokaku and 2 CVLs to keep the base's airfield out of action. Soon, I noticed that the two Japanese carrier TFs were alternating strikes. I had to replay the turn a couple of times to learn, but here is what I discovered:

1. Having a separate TF of Australian CA and CLs didn't really change anything. The Japanese just concentrated on the carriers.

2. Trying to battle both groups individually still had poor results. I lost Yorktown and Lexington to the Zuiho group with only one CVL sunk. Then Enterprise and Saratoga were both damaged enough to force them out of action.

3. I had to bring the Enterprise/Saratoga, Yorktown/Lexington, and Austrian TFs together in one hex to have any positive results. Strength in numbers.

4. Earlier I mentioned the B-17s failed to contribute to the attack. I had them training and forgot to set their maximum range from 0 to 22. Oops. But they were still of no help.

The final outcome was a US victory. The Enterprise/Saratoga were engaged by the Shokaku TF at max range. They managed to shoot down most of the attacking planes and only one bomb struck Saratoga and one CL was torpedoed. They were not able to engage the Japanese carriers in return. The next day the groups met up and engaged the Zuiho TF. I peeked at the Japanese side, but one CVL was sunk, with Zuiho and the other CVL badly damaged. I think some surviving Shokaku planes tried to attack again, but they were shot down. My airgroups are pretty much spent, but Port Morsey is safe!





spence -> RE: Bad Luck? (1/2/2020 9:26:46 PM)

quote:

quote:

ORIGINAL: coachi

Luck I just had both the prince of whales and repulse sunk on first turn. Before I even got to make any move.



That is historical.


The "Historical 1st Turn" is not historical. HMS Prince of Wales and HMS Repulse were sunk on the 3rd day of the war in the Pacific: Dec 10th 1941. When they sortied from Singapore they were not located by the Japanese for a whole day in spite of an intensive air search due to the cloudy weather. Admiral Phillips had decided to return to Singapore, and the Japanese bombers had nearly decided to return to Saigon when a fortuitous sighting by submarine I-58 finally got passed through to the bombers.

Their sortie from Singapore may have been politically ordained. Certainly there was some confusion as to where the ships were and whether fighter cover was or was not available on the British side. And on the Japanese side there apparently was confusion as to whether the ships
had even sortied or were still in Singapore.




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