RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (Full Version)

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Pvt_Grunt -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/27/2020 8:48:38 AM)

The beginning of the end

I've seen enough movies to know that these 2 stories are linked! A new virus and primates escaping from a hospital! I'm stocking up on canned goods and ammo......[;)]




Lobster -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/27/2020 10:31:07 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

I'm not so willing to give carte blanche, Zorch. Some of the responses have been, well, terrifying and seem to go well beyond the bounds of reasoned interventional strategies.



Unfortunately, as we have seen, it isn't simply the medical issue that is the main point here. The containment strategies that have so far been implemented seem to work. But that means businesses shutting down. In Europe the social safety net is much better suited for that. Here, not so much. I'm also curious as to what terrifying responses you have seen.

BTW, if you are fortunate enough to be of the richer class wait a few days before buying up stocks. [:D]




RFalvo69 -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/28/2020 12:08:26 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Blond_Knight

Matrix has an office in Milan?


Their PR office is in Milan, IIRC. This is why a lot of Matrix's PRs are Italian.

My eldest daughter lives in Milan (she studies fashion design, but right now the institute is obviously closed). She tells me that there is a lot of confusion running around. Two days ago all bars and pubs had to close at 6PM - but restaurants had no restrictions. Why?

Then yesterday the measure was changed: bars and pubs can stay open, but after 6PM the costumers must stay seated and be served by the staff - no one is allowed to stay at the bar counter. Just think about it and you will see how this "measure" is totally nonsensical.

Then there is our local panic here in Calabria. I do own a Restaurant/Pizzeria, so I literally need to be hourly informed about events and regulations. But then a colleague asked me if I check the ID cards of my guests to see if they are from Northern Italy. I mean, my reaction was [8|] However, all the bar/restaurant services in my area are seeing a 30%-50% drop in costumers - and we are quite far from Lombardy.

My (obviously limited) perception is that, true, we got a serious bug running around, but the reaction is out of proportions. Wash your hands, isolate yourself if you are sick and warn the authorities (along with those you got in contact) if you think it is warranted (no, covering your mouth with a mask if you are healthy doesn't work). This is not the Black Pox: a vast percentage of those killed by this virus are either elderly people, people with serious pre-existing conditions or both.

If anything, this could become a good dress rehearsal for when the Black Pox will strike for real, but they are already talking about the risk of a global recession caused by this Coronavirus drama. I don't think that, if something so dire happens, it would be justified by the reality of facts.




Chickenboy -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/28/2020 11:26:25 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

BTW, if you are fortunate enough to be of the richer class wait a few days before buying up stocks. [:D]


Thanks for the advice, but no thanks. I'll not let a good market panic go to waste. I picked up a lot of good stuff in the bargain bins yesterday and today. As Warren Buffett says, "The time to be greedy is when others are fearful." And Ken Fischer routinely argues that "False bearish fears are always bullish."




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/28/2020 11:29:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster

BTW, if you are fortunate enough to be of the richer class wait a few days before buying up stocks. [:D]


Thanks for the advice, but no thanks. I'll not let a good market panic go to waste. I picked up a lot of good stuff in the bargain bins yesterday and today. As Warren Buffett says, "The time to be greedy is when others are fearful." And Ken Fischer routinely argues that "False bearish fears are always bullish."

What goes down (because of virus fear) will come up. But don't ask me when...




Chickenboy -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/28/2020 11:34:37 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
The containment strategies that have so far been implemented seem to work.


Meh. If they did, then how to explain the global spread out post- Wuhan 'wet market'? At best, the authoritarian crackdown by the Chinese delayed some exposure. But some 15MM Chinese got out of the Wuhan crackdown beforehand-presumably a goodly number of them were exposed. But the global spread is / was largely inevitable.

On the other hand, what we did with known exposed Americans repatriated from China was an excellent application of selective quarantine.

The terrifying Chinese behaviors include assigning political 'block captains' and neighborhood communist busybodies to enforce an ironclad neighborhood crackdown. This is happening all over China. This prevents sick from visiting the hospital, needy from getting medication refills, people going to work or school and everything in between. Entirely without merit from the disease prevention and control foundation. The thought of a communist goon squad barricading me in my home and letting me starve or go without my daily medication is terrifying to me.




Chickenboy -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/28/2020 11:35:06 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
But don't ask me when...


When? [:'(]




RangerJoe -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/28/2020 11:45:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
The containment strategies that have so far been implemented seem to work.


Meh. If they did, then how to explain the global spread out post- Wuhan 'wet market'? At best, the authoritarian crackdown by the Chinese delayed some exposure. But some 15MM Chinese got out of the Wuhan crackdown beforehand-presumably a goodly number of them were exposed. But the global spread is / was largely inevitable.

On the other hand, what we did with known exposed Americans repatriated from China was an excellent application of selective quarantine.

The terrifying Chinese behaviors include assigning political 'block captains' and neighborhood communist busybodies to enforce an ironclad neighborhood crackdown. This is happening all over China. This prevents sick from visiting the hospital, needy from getting medication refills, people going to work or school and everything in between. Entirely without merit from the disease prevention and control foundation. The thought of a communist goon squad barricading me in my home and letting me starve or go without my daily medication is terrifying to me.


No going out to get essential medication like beer? [:@]




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 12:00:49 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
But don't ask me when...


When? [:'(]

Are you asking When you can ask me When the markets will come back up? If so, yes.




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 12:28:06 AM)

More pertinent information from Science News https://www.sciencenews.org/article/what-new-phase-coronavirus-outbreak-united-states-means-you




Chickenboy -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 12:34:46 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
But don't ask me when...


When? [:'(]

Are you asking When you can ask me When the markets will come back up? If so, yes.


OK. When can I ask you when the markets will come back up?




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 12:37:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
But don't ask me when...


When? [:'(]

Are you asking When you can ask me When the markets will come back up? If so, yes.


OK. When can I ask you when the markets will come back up?

About 2 weeks after they do.




Chickenboy -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 12:47:55 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
About 2 weeks after they do.


After they do what?




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 12:49:53 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch
About 2 weeks after they do.


After they do what?

After they come back up.




Chickenboy -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 2:56:58 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

After they come back up.


OK. Then what?




Zap -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 3:31:17 AM)

The usual suspects leading us down a path of no end. [:D]




Lobster -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 4:41:23 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zap

The usual suspects leading us down a path of no end. [:D]


Every path has an end and we all live to see it. [;)]




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 5:37:33 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

After they come back up.


OK. Then what?

Then you sell at a fat profit $$$, if you so choose.

You have used 4 questions. You have 16 remaining. Do you want to buy a vowel?




RFalvo69 -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 10:38:10 AM)

The story today, beside the roof coming down on the markets, is that you could have already had the Coronavirus without knowing. It manifests itself as a strong flu. I had a strong flu right when the panic was starting in China, back at the end of January.

Then again, there are two kinds of flu still around beside the Coronavirus: the usual one with fever, cough and a cold, and a gastro-intestinal one. If you get the latter you at least know that it is not THE PLAGUE. If you get the former (the one I had)... well, now you must be checked. This adds to the workload of the scientists.

Also, let's not forget how people still get sick from other aliments, babies are being born and so on. But yesterday there was a story on ANSA (the Italian news service) about how hospitals are filled up by Coronavirus cases - either real or suspected - and non-containment areas are being transformed in containment ones. Where this leaves people with other aliments, I don't know.




Erik Rutins -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 1:11:58 PM)

I help care for my late 70s/early 80s parents and I'm very concerned because not only does this virus have Spanish Flu-level mortality on average, but it's 15-20% mortality for folks like them with elderly immune systems and other health issues. My biggest concern is that folks are treating this like it's just another flu or a bad cold and thus will not try to contain it or stop it, but just blow it off. If this spreads widely, it will be like the Spanish Flu and kill millions of people across all ages, though mostly older folks. This is potentially IMHO a once a century pandemic, if we take it too lightly. I see it as frankly requiring a wartime-level effort and seriousness to avoid wartime-level casualties.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/bill-gates-says-coronavirus-may-be-once-in-a-century-pathogen.html




Erik Rutins -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 1:13:12 PM)

Also, this is worth keeping in mind:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normalcy_bias




Lobster -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 5:08:23 PM)

It worrisome that three new cases have presented themselves on the West Coast. One in California, one in Oregon and one in the state of Washington and none of these people have been in contact with anyone who might spread the virus so it is out there in the general population. WTF? It's like someone is moving it up the coast in just one day. [8|]

Me and my wife are in the age range where we need to be highly aware. But we are someplace where we have suffered over a week of no power and no way to move around a few times so we are always prepared for a month of confinement. At this point not sure if that is enough. Whether or not a specific area will be hit hard is not predictable. I'm not going to sit with my thumb up my butt hoping it will all go away and not affect us. We will use whatever we have anyway so no harm in stocking up a little more that we will use anyway. [;)]




Erik Rutins -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 8:25:21 PM)

The reason these are just now appearing all at once is because we just now were able to do broader testing. Let's hope these outbreaks turn out to be of a manageable size.




RFalvo69 -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 9:40:50 PM)

What I think is that the World leaders underestimated the seriousness of the problem, and now they are behind in the "decision cycle" (as dictated by the evolving events).

I know that this borders politics but I'm not pointing fingers or making names. I'm simply more and more convinced that this virus is always one step ahead the measures taken to fight/contain it. Like in any struggle, when you only react you end up losing.

I'm still convinced that to fight the Coronavirus the most powerful weapons are good info and common sense. True, it is scary, but the basics are actually simple: wash (and disinfect) your hands, don't touch your or others' face before doing that, monitor your temperature and warn the officials in your country if you do suspect you have gotten it (try not to panic - your temperature can go up simply because you are tired; again, use your head).

And protect/isolate the people that can be hit the hardest: the elderly and those with a compromised immune system.

True, almost one-hundred thousand people around the World got this bug. For some reason, the follow up is never mentioned: almost all of them are not dying. The highest projection is a 2% mortality - and most of it in the above mentioned vulnerable part of the population. I lost hope to read/hear the words "...however 98% of the afflicted will recover".

I don't want to minimise the situation. It is scary, but the confusing and sometimes contradictory declarations coming right now by public officials don't fight the scare, only enhance it.

My parents live in a good hospice, which is under severe lockdown. I can agree with that: having a sick person in a place with 90+ people over 80 would be like throwing a light match in a pool of gasoline. Then I speak again with my daughter in Milan and she describes me a ghost city. Gathering places are closed, the streets are empty of people, disinfectant gel (usually 1 Euro over the counter) is sold by shady people in shady corners at 10-20 Euro; she told me that she was not making it up and I believe her. She had to take a cab, and the usually busy streets are so empty that she paid half the usual fare.

But now hear this: she is in Lombardy, in the middle of one of the hottest zones on Earth (we are told) - and she can't name a single person hit by the Coronavirus. Not one of her fellow students, not one of her friends, not her grocer, not the cab driver, not the brother-in-law of a friend's dentist. No one. She told me "Should I decide to try how this bug is, I wouldn't know how to do it." (she was always the creative one).

Now the economy is collapsing, worse than after 9/11 and the 2008 meltdown. This scares me more than the bug, because (if I understood correctly how this little bastard acts) we are yet to see the worst of it in terms of diffusion; which is, unfortunately, the only thing that does seem to matter.




Zap -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 10:23:39 PM)

Maybe some time in the near future when all the politics and fears are dealt with because we have handled this virus. There can actually be a clear definition as to what the virus is capable of doing, more concrete facts to belay fears. In the meantime the uncertainty about it fans speculation (true or false) and is capable of destroying an economy. I sure hope it does not come to that.
But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.




nicwb -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (2/29/2020 11:20:02 PM)

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.




Zorch -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/1/2020 12:16:32 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.




Mobius -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/1/2020 1:00:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster
It worrisome that three new cases have presented themselves on the West Coast. One in California, one in Oregon and one in the state of Washington and none of these people have been in contact with anyone who might spread the virus so it is out there in the general population. WTF? It's like someone is moving it up the coast in just one day. [8|]
Well the one in Solano is a couple miles from Travis AFB were a bunch of patients were housed. So somehow something got out. The other cases I don't know. Is there a coronavirus Mary out there?

Anyways, laying in a supply of canned food may not be a bad idea. You will have to make fewer trips to a place where people gather together.




Zap -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/1/2020 1:01:36 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch

quote:

ORIGINAL: nicwb

quote:

But seeing the panic the Corona virus has produced it maybe we are headed for a dark economic turn.


That's probably right - on it's own COVID-19 won't destroy the economy. But it could give it a fairly hard knock. It may simply depend on what underlying problems the economy currently has and how well/badly people adapt. For instance the Black Death in the 14th century literally decimated the European agricultural economy. But it did not completely destroy it. The problem - not enough workers left to farm the feudal estates. The solution -wages rose markedly due to the shortage of labor. Landlords and feudal estates probably had to swallow the losses or at least renegotiate with their tenants until the population became greater.

There's no comparison with the Black Death. That killed 25 or 30% of the population in Europe over several years (1346-1350). No one (and I mean absolutely no one) is suggesting COVID-19 will have anything more than 2% mortality. The economic impact will be short-lived; IMHO a year from now we'll be where we were before COVID-19. A better comparison (for economic effect) might be severe flu outbreaks, such as the 1957 and 1968 flu.



Exactly thats how I look at it. Could the media for once stop fanning unwarranted fear? I doubt it. But they could try.




operating -> RE: OT - The New Coronavirus (3/1/2020 1:13:50 AM)

At my Yahoo homepage 9 out of the first 31 articles was about this coronavirus. The substance of the articles varied, a very few were objective in offering solutions, or science based in nature. What concerned me was the doom and gloom blame game and making a hullabaloo out of some rather mundane stuff, in other words mostly opinionated or opinion from many that are not scientists. Until this virus scare is reasoned out and fully understood through observation, action and reaction (experimenting) I'm of the mind to be cautious and wait for some good news to start turning things around..




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