Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (Full Version)

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Q-Ball -> Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 1:23:18 PM)

I have a game going and I've already figured out a plan post-Singapore falling. But I'm curious how everyone views the various options you have as the Empire once Singapore is cleared out and the DEI more or less secure. Those events free up alot of strength for deployment elsewhere, and curious what everyone's opinion is of the options, pro and con. Assume as you provide feedback that neither side has lost anything super important, like carriers.

It seems like you can divide options into "BOLD" and more "MEASURED" options; if you want to do something bold, like conquer all of Australia or India, you have to decide to it and commit to it early, and also understand you'll have to take some initial risks, like landing in Western India in March.

So, broadly, how do you consider pros and cons of various options? As I was going through my own planning, I could see several "BOLD" and "NEAR" options, including but not limited to:

BOLD:
--CONQUEST OF INDIA: Early landings on West Coast and Ceylon, clearing British fleet completely out of the Indian Ocean. In the old days before off-map movement you could destroy the Royal Navy this way, though not possible now.
--CONQUEST OF AUSTRALIA: NIIRC, a couple players got everything but Sydney and got stuck there
--HAWAII: I have a game where my opponent is invading Hawaii; I would classify as BOLD

MEASURED (Going Around the Map)
--Easter India: Objective clearing out and maybe trapping units in Burma, score some Industry points
--Ceylon: Easy to take, hard to hold, but you can clean out some units this way
--Western Australia: Perth is a major base, but has some challenges to taking
--Northern Australia/Darwin
--Northeast Australia down to Brisbane (IIRC, one hex further triggers Aussie reinforcements)
--Expansion toward Noumea, Fiji
--Expansion toward Canton, Christmas islands, Midway
--Aleutians

As I was reviewing, saw pros and cons on all of these, curious what everyone's thoughts are!



Canoerebel -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 1:39:24 PM)

The taking of bases/places/regions doesn't give Japan any organic victory points. You can take Pearl Harbor but you'll lose it, so no points for the base. etc.

So key questions for Japan: (1) is it likely that the operation will earn Japan 1:1 or better in points? Can Japan apply force superiority and will the Allies defend? (2) When the Allies counterattack eventually, is the location well-configured for Japanese defense at a favorable ratio (or, if Japan already made enough points, a favorable withdrawal without giving the Allies a chance to score in the counterattack).

If you're facing an inexperienced Allied player (or an aggressive one), he might fight anywhere, so that any point on the map is important and helpful. If you're facing an experienced or more cautious Allied player, he might not worry about most of the points you reference. Does it really matter if Japan takes Fiji in early '42 if the Allies invade Wake in '43? Similarly, the Allied player doesn't have to have the Aleutians to prosecute the late war. If he does, he'll use 'em. If he doesn't, big deal.

Of all the places you reference, the heart of Oz (Melbourne to Sydney) will worry the Allied player; ditto the Karachi to Bombay stretch of India. But either of those takes an all-out commitment by Japan, and India is nearly impossible against an experienced Allied player.

Pearl Harbor could be helpful if Japan, from day one, is intent on strat bombing the Western USA and/or taking out the big industrial centers by capture, like Portland and LA.

Some of the best Japanese play I've seen didn't go after any of those places and still played well into 1945.



Canoerebel -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 1:42:51 PM)

Eradicating the Allies in China is probably the single-most effective thing a Japanese player can do.



RangerJoe -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 2:07:47 PM)

I would suggest trying to take the Industrial center of Calcutta and the region around it. Also take Ceylon. The plan should be to wreck/destroy as many British and Indian formations early since their replacement rates are so low and early on, the Indian Army is not highly experienced. If you can grab Socotra as well and put long ranged Nells on it, reinforcements from Aden can be interdicted. The same thing with Diego Garcia for interdicting reinforcements from Cape Town which is were any American units shipped from CONUS would show up.

You don't need to garrison every Indian base, leave them empty for the partisans to work on the airfields. If the enemy recaptures it, you can bomb the units there before the airfield can be repaired. Retake it and abandon it again. Do this enough and any industry should get wrecked which will need imported supplies to repair. Those imported supplies will then not be available for his units. If the enemy does not repair them, then diminishes India as an on map supply source.

This should take the CBI theatre out of the enemies offensives option unless it is reinforced by American and Australian forces. Those that are there can't be used in the Pacific regions. But protect yourself against these reinforcements so don't have just token defenses.



Q-Ball -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 2:34:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

I would suggest trying to take the Industrial center of Calcutta and the region around it. Also take Ceylon. The plan should be to wreck/destroy as many British and Indian formations early since their replacement rates are so low and early on, the Indian Army is not highly experienced. If you can grab Socotra as well and put long ranged Nells on it, reinforcements from Aden can be interdicted. The same thing with Diego Garcia for interdicting reinforcements from Cape Town which is were any American units shipped from CONUS would show up.

You don't need to garrison every Indian base, leave them empty for the partisans to work on the airfields. If the enemy recaptures it, you can bomb the units there before the airfield can be repaired. Retake it and abandon it again. Do this enough and any industry should get wrecked which will need imported supplies to repair. Those imported supplies will then not be available for his units. If the enemy does not repair them, then diminishes India as an on map supply source.

This should take the CBI theatre out of the enemies offensives option unless it is reinforced by American and Australian forces. Those that are there can't be used in the Pacific regions. But protect yourself against these reinforcements so don't have just token defenses.


Well, I have already have a plan, but that's an interesting perspective on the Burma theater.

And Dan is totally right, annihilating the Chinese is the best thing the Empire can do....it's just very hard to do that with stacking limits and good Allied play!

Keep the feedback coming! I think Dan is spot-on that harvesting points for locations is futile, because the Allies are just going to take it back eventually



RangerJoe -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 2:53:08 PM)

But harvesting locations for the unit's VPs is good. If you can capture supplies and fuel then return them to where they are needed, even better.

For China, try not to destroy too many units until Chungking and the other city where the replacements come in are captured. There, Chinese over stacking is to your benefit.



inqistor -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 4:16:36 PM)

Australia is kinda pointless, unless you want to score some Strategic Points, or destroy factories. Plus you would fight all those Restricted Divisions.

India - the same. Impossible to defend, as Allies can send whole invasion fleet from off map.


Large enough buffer between China, and India, so no supply can fly, would be nice. But you can conquer whole China instead.

Noumea, Fiji, or Christmas Island seems interesting, as it extends US supply route, and allows serious raiding effort.


Generally, you either want to destroy permanently Allies potential (by converting factories, or conquering Bases, where Ships will shows up), or force Allies to commit, and lose. Preferably CVs, and lots of large LCUs.



Anachro -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 4:31:39 PM)

Hmmm...should I post in this thread? [:D] I think Japan should totally try to conquer the UK during the late Bonus phase.



Chickenboy -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 4:50:15 PM)

India is a tar baby. With the Allied ability to rail reinforcements at will around the country, failure to capture the entirety of the country=failure for the strategy. Possible exception to Ceylon for reasons given below.

Dan is right in not relying on base VPs for help. When they get flipped again later war they'll no longer be in the calculus for VP calculation.

Think about where you can 'harvest' the most permanent VPs. I look at killing LCUs. Not beating them up and making them retreat, but liquidation/ surrender en masse.

Early war, I'm talking islands. Where do the Allies have the most juicy LCUs in an island that cannot be reinforced / retreated from? Singapore. Luzon. Java. Sumatra. Hong Kong. These all stand out as no-brainers for their resources/oil/fuel/strategic positioning.

What next? So-called stage II goals? Much tougher. Ceylon fits the qualities above. Some high-quality LCUs that can be surrounded and liquidated before they can be reinforced. Where else? Suva/Samoa? Pago Pago? Papua-New Guinea? Rabaul? New Caledonia? New Zealand? All are considerations pending the response of the Allied player to initial Japanese forays. Make the Allies fight in indefensible terrain without hope of reinforcement. Alternatively, an ill-advised Allied reinforcement effort too early in the match may lead to significant fleet destruction (and more VPs).



Zorch -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 4:57:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

India is a tar baby. With the Allied ability to rail reinforcements at will around the country, failure to capture the entirety of the country=failure for the strategy. Possible exception to Ceylon for reasons given below.

Dan is right in not relying on base VPs for help. When they get flipped again later war they'll no longer be in the calculus for VP calculation.

Think about where you can 'harvest' the most permanent VPs. I look at killing LCUs. Not beating them up and making them retreat, but liquidation/ surrender en masse.

Early war, I'm talking islands. Where do the Allies have the most juicy LCUs in an island that cannot be reinforced / retreated from? Singapore. Luzon. Java. Sumatra. Hong Kong. These all stand out as no-brainers for their resources/oil/fuel/strategic positioning.

What next? So-called stage II goals? Much tougher. Ceylon fits the qualities above. Some high-quality LCUs that can be surrounded and liquidated before they can be reinforced. Where else? Suva/Samoa? Pago Pago? Papua-New Guinea? Rabaul? New Caledonia? New Zealand? All are considerations pending the response of the Allied player to initial Japanese forays. Make the Allies fight in indefensible terrain without hope of reinforcement. Alternatively, an ill-advised Allied reinforcement effort too early in the match may lead to significant fleet destruction (and more VPs).

You should take Allied strategy into account. If he's gone full blown Sir Robin, you're not going to kill as many units. Then going after territory makes more sense.



Chickenboy -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 5:54:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Zorch


quote:

ORIGINAL: Chickenboy

India is a tar baby. With the Allied ability to rail reinforcements at will around the country, failure to capture the entirety of the country=failure for the strategy. Possible exception to Ceylon for reasons given below.

Dan is right in not relying on base VPs for help. When they get flipped again later war they'll no longer be in the calculus for VP calculation.

Think about where you can 'harvest' the most permanent VPs. I look at killing LCUs. Not beating them up and making them retreat, but liquidation/ surrender en masse.

Early war, I'm talking islands. Where do the Allies have the most juicy LCUs in an island that cannot be reinforced / retreated from? Singapore. Luzon. Java. Sumatra. Hong Kong. These all stand out as no-brainers for their resources/oil/fuel/strategic positioning.

What next? So-called stage II goals? Much tougher. Ceylon fits the qualities above. Some high-quality LCUs that can be surrounded and liquidated before they can be reinforced. Where else? Suva/Samoa? Pago Pago? Papua-New Guinea? Rabaul? New Caledonia? New Zealand? All are considerations pending the response of the Allied player to initial Japanese forays. Make the Allies fight in indefensible terrain without hope of reinforcement. Alternatively, an ill-advised Allied reinforcement effort too early in the match may lead to significant fleet destruction (and more VPs).

You should take Allied strategy into account. If he's gone full blown Sir Robin, you're not going to kill as many units. Then going after territory makes more sense.


Yeah, sure. I'll take Ceylon for free if he'll completely evacuate it. My problem (OK, one of my problems) is that I don't know ahead of time where the Allies will bail from until I invest it. In the unlikely event that the Allies abandon New Zealand, how will I know unless I land there in strength? Even then, I've also got to make sure that I don't 'take territory just to take territory' and-in so doing-overextend my own lines for the inevitable Allied reprisal.



mind_messing -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 6:08:46 PM)

CR is right about VPs, so Japan needs to generate permanent VPs.

To that end, a campaign for New Caledonia, followed up by firebombing raids on the Eastern Australian coast.

If the Coral Sea is a Japanese lake, the KB has the chance to run wild, backed by long range bombers from Port Moresby and Nouméa.

Allied options to counter are limited until later in 1942, and even then it's an uphill struggle



spence -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 6:24:12 PM)

quote:

Eradicating the Allies in China is probably the single-most effective thing a Japanese player can do.


Totally a game thing given the 3 year stalemate in China after the initial invasion while the rest of the world pretty much let Japan do as they pleased. Declaring war on the US and UK was not the key to breaking the stalemate in China.



mind_messing -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 6:30:48 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: spence

quote:

Eradicating the Allies in China is probably the single-most effective thing a Japanese player can do.


Totally a game thing given the 3 year stalemate in China after the initial invasion while the rest of the world pretty much let Japan do as they pleased. Declaring war on the US and UK was not the key to breaking the stalemate in China.


What's your elegant solution to better represent the complex political and military situation in China at the time then?



Jorge_Stanbury -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 7:11:14 PM)

I would had taken most of China off-map; with only coastal regions, the Burma border and Manchuria on map

That said, totally invading China is as unrealistic as totally invading India or Australia; so I don't object that the Japanese player goes for it



RADM.Yamaguchi -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 11:09:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

CR is right about VPs, so Japan needs to generate permanent VPs.

To that end, a campaign for New Caledonia, followed up by firebombing raids on the Eastern Australian coast.

If the Coral Sea is a Japanese lake, the KB has the chance to run wild, backed by long range bombers from Port Moresby and Nouméa.

Allied options to counter are limited until later in 1942, and even then it's an uphill struggle

Mind Messing, could you please explain more about firebombing raids. Are they air raids using Netties? KB? What do they target? Airfield attack? Port attack? City attack? Ground Attack? Or are you talking about Bombardment TFs hitting them?



Jorge_Stanbury -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 11:17:30 PM)

it is in the manual; pg152

"When a city is attacked, there is a chance that a fire can be started. A fire level shows up
when the mouse cursor is rolled over a base, just above the list of enemy industry. City attacks
on Manpower have a chance of creating high fire levels that will cause damage to any and
all industry. The fire level can get as high as 40 million, and is divided by 10 each 12 hours
as the fire is put out. Very high levels will continue to cause damage. The greater the target
manpower, the easier it is to get a fire storm going."



RADM.Yamaguchi -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 11:23:38 PM)

Thanks Jorge



JoV -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 11:31:38 PM)

Didn't see it noted anywhere (or may have just missed it), but assuming this is for scenario 2? Some of those goals seem a little lofty to me for scenario 1 [:D]



RADM.Yamaguchi -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/26/2020 11:43:15 PM)

if you want to destroy ships being built what would you target? City attack? Are there any building in Australia or New Zealand?



Ian R -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 12:42:15 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RADM.Yamaguchi

if you want to destroy ships being built what would you target? City attack? Are there any building in Australia or New Zealand?


That doesn't happen. However, port attacks will target ships in the port (not in task forces), including those repairing damage.

If your ground forces occupy an arrival port where reinforcements appear, the ships are lost.



dr.hal -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 1:42:09 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Ian R

If your ground forces occupy an arrival port where reinforcements appear, the ships are lost.

I thought the ships were lost if BUILDING there (such as in Singapore) but that if they "arrive" there then they would be deferred to arrive in a "national" port at a later date. Did I get that wrong?



PaxMondo -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 2:53:56 AM)

Taking the Calcutta area in '42 can generally net the IJ player at least 1,000,000 supply. Irrespective of all other aspects, that alone is a reason to take and hold it for 9 - 15 months. The trick is when to bail so that you don't get trapped as Calcutta is potentially even worse a death trap than SE Asia for the IJ.

That supply allows for air force expansion, but more importantly, can fund the missions that the expanded air force can fly.

OZ has a similar potential, but it is simply quite a bit more difficult and costly to do AND much farther out. You have to take Sydney/Melbourne area. Much more challenging than the Calcutta area.

Ceylon is more about denial than anything else and again is a potential trap. IJ has to abandon it before they are cut-off. It is SO hard to give up taken territory.

Edit:
I should add that in taking Calcutta, if done boldly early enough, you can trap and annihilate the Burma army in its entirety. it is simply a race to Darjeeling. If you win, the allied Burma army is trapped and can be extinguished with those permanent VP's recorded. Granted, those units in general aren't much, but they still count. Also, in '42 the Indian units are also just VP's to be harvested. And the more damage you do, just like against the CHI, the less you will see in the late war. Indian replacements are just not that great. (Not sure why that is though, always been a bit surprised by that).



Scott_USN -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 3:13:02 AM)

Interesting it seems winning as Japan as the war drags on is very very unlikely. Which is historically correct.

I have never finished a war, I usually just enjoy the first stages and then quit in the 43 era. Trying out Nasty for new experience. Japan is just way too much but awesome to play I suspect if you get the industry mastered.
.



Encircled -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 7:07:33 AM)

Least risk with tangible benefits is clearing out China.

I don't see an invasion of India or Australia succeeding against anyone (bar a very inexperienced allied player). Anyone else will start planning for the worst case scenario on Turn 1.

It about destroying allied LCUs, naval, merchant, air power so you have to get him to fight where he doesn't want to retreat.

That will depend on who you are playing!

IMHO nothing is worth holding on for in the face of determined Japanese attack in 1942 because I don't think you can hold it (bar what I've previously mentioned).

But once that amphib bonus has gone, the allies can defend a lot further forward and take a lot more risks.



GetAssista -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 8:56:24 AM)

Where Japan goes early after the usual perimeter is secured is determined by the possibility 1) to destroy Allied units, 2) to capture industrial centers for a prolonged period, and 3) to inflict strategic losses. Everything else does not matter much unless Allies are brazen enough to act early with sizeable forces somewhere where they can be isolated through 42. There were some AARs where Allies started their advance too early in the Pacific or even DEI, and presented Japan with the opportunity to harvest VPs both from the isolated units and from the rescue attempts.

This leaves 2 major theaters for large invasions: Eastern India (for Calcutta region industry) and Australia (for some strategic bombing). Both can provide some army VP harvest if Allies are careless with land war, but one should not count on that. The worst thing Allies can do at that time is to commit to trying to hold on to some important forward base like Calcutta, Colombo, or Townsville, or hold the line in Burma. Still, some players might take the risks, and you can punish them for that.

As for other areas they are either insignificant for the bigger picture (Aleutians, Pacific, southern India) or too late to capitalize on (Hawaii, Canada, Western India, WC). Sure, insignificant does not mean that Japan should not act. It should, with opportune forces. Taking empty islands in the Pacific is ok, taking Ceylon is ok, advancing along Aleutian chain is ok against weak resistance. Battling for an atoll against a dug in regiment is not ok (but it's a different story if there are a couple allied divisions there).


Edit: trying to clear out China goes without saying, but I believe Japan chances there are good enough with restricted forces on hand, no need to employ unrestricted ones. Patience and supply bombing are useful



RangerJoe -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 9:24:58 AM)

I think that one reason that Indian Army replacements are so low is that Indian Army units were also in North Afrika and then Italy. That does not include the political aspects either.



obvert -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 11:31:57 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball

BOLD:
--CONQUEST OF INDIA: Early landings on West Coast and Ceylon, clearing British fleet completely out of the Indian Ocean. In the old days before off-map movement you could destroy the Royal Navy this way, though not possible now.



I think all of India is possible. You just have to commit fully and land in the right places. Land as close as possible and take Karachi first. Has it ever been done? I don't think so.

Someone will do it eventually. [:)]

quote:



--CONQUEST OF AUSTRALIA: NIIRC, a couple players got everything but Sydney and got stuck there



Again, worry about Sydney and Melbourne first and work backwards. You own the oceans. Sail down, land between them, maybe use a few smaller landings to cut coastal rail and paras to cut internal rail.

Is it worth it? If industry is intact it might be, but that takes a lot of fuel/oil to run as well. If you can get the supply benefit and the Aussie Army permanent VPs might be worth it. Then just retire before the Allies can strike sometime in early 43.

One of the main goals would be to then Strat bomb industrial targets you don't want to use (resources moslty) before they're captured. A good deal of VP harvesting there.

quote:



--HAWAII: I have a game where my opponent is invading Hawaii; I would classify as BOLD



Not worth the cost unless part of a West Coast strategy. Better to just take Victoria and bomb Seattle or land at Astoria and wipe out the Portland shipyards.

It would be useful to take Lahaina or another nearby base and use it to interdict Pearl, possibly bomb the shipyards. Not PH though.

quote:



MEASURED (Going Around the Map)
--Easter India: Objective clearing out and maybe trapping units in Burma, score some Industry points
--Ceylon: Easy to take, hard to hold, but you can clean out some units this way



No VPs for destroyed industry here. I'd keep these as part of the same plan.

Useful if you can trap some of the Indian Army and use Calcutta and surrounding industry, plus Ledo oil. This is the safe plan.

quote:



--Western Australia: Perth is a major base, but has some challenges to taking
--Northern Australia/Darwin



Some VPs, and Perth can be useful. Especially if he tries to defend and you get those troops. VP harvest resources is the real goal though.

quote:



--Northeast Australia down to Brisbane (IIRC, one hex further triggers Aussie reinforcements)



Just land to the North at Townsville and bomb everything out. Then leave.

quote:



--Expansion toward Noumea, Fiji
--Expansion toward Canton, Christmas islands, Midway
--Aleutians



None of these are worth the effort and mainly the fuel/troops needed. Just tar babies.



PaxMondo -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 12:42:57 PM)

erik: "
None of these are worth the effort and mainly the fuel/troops needed. Just tar babies.
"

Brilliant way to express ….

[&o][&o][&o]



GetAssista -> RE: Japanese Strategic Options: Late Bonus Phase (2/27/2020 12:49:42 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert
I think all of India is possible. You just have to commit fully and land in the right places. Land as close as possible and take Karachi first. Has it ever been done? I don't think so.

I agree, it is possible, but is it worth the huge commitment? Economically worth it, I mean ("doing it for the gigs" is another story). There is not that much industry, cornering and harvesting the starting Indian units would be quite a hassle due to local supply generation and land mass involved. And after that you have to deal with the long coastline that is is hardly defensible against CV-supported landing, unless you park KB there making you wide open anywhere else.

I recall Rader taking almost all of India from GreyJoy back then. Did not help him with the later war much, he chose to abandon India on his own, cause the heat turned up much closer to Japan.

Both Oz and India are more lucrative if you opponent makes a blunder and allows you to catch most of his divisions somewhere else instead of 4x terrain supply generating fortified cities. But can you really count on this with the RR network involved



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