RE: OT: Corona virus (Full Version)

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RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:07:43 PM)

Well, I posted some links and one of them had things to consume that have antiviral properties that protect against this virus and there are some that work against protection because of how they work. Stay sensible, eat properly, proper sanitary techniques, and most people should be fine. Stress works against you and all of this hype is stressful. It sort of reminds me of the chickens when we cut their heads off . . . [sm=fighting0043.gif]



Scott_USN -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:09:05 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
It sort of reminds me of the chickens when we cut their heads off . . . [sm=fighting0043.gif]



I love some hot wings!



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:13:11 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Scott_USN


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe
It sort of reminds me of the chickens when we cut their heads off . . . [sm=fighting0043.gif]



I love some hot wings!


These were older laying hens from an egg farm. My stepmother would make nice, thick, rich, yellowish egg yolk noodles from the whole yolks we found inside. Boil them and then fry them in butter if they did not go into soup. [sm=happy0005.gif]



USSAmerica -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:35:17 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Or, what in the world am I missing?



You are missing the fact that a for-profit Media enterprise is looking to generate additional income (i.e through web site "clicks") by publicizing the extremely scary findings of an obscure research group.


This is why they are called "the media" now, and no longer called "the news". [sm=nono.gif]



Erik Rutins -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:40:44 PM)

My $.02: The only way we're going to stop this, is by taking it seriously and separating it from political issues. On this issue, dismissing it as a non-threat that will not create a pandemic will actually have the effect of guaranteeing a pandemic. The sooner we all get on the same page and work to contain it, the less damage this virus will do.

On a personal note, I'm being particularly vocal on this because my two elderly parents live in an apartment in our house. They are both in the very high risk group for this virus and if it goes through the community, because they also require regular health assistance beyond what I can provide, through visiting nurses, we will almost certainly be among the first affected. We can't really isolate ourselves effectively, so we have to hope this is taken seriously by others and that it does not become a large epidemic.

If it helps, if you want to see Distant Worlds 2 and Gary Grigsby's War in the East 2 and Steel Tigers anytime soon, please take this seriously!



witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:44:01 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

The decrease in China in that view is partially masking the exponential increase elsewhere. Cases are now appearing in most countries around the globe, including those with poor health systems. It's still spreading at a very high rate even in advanced countries implementing social distancing and contact tracing. That's what is leading many to say that this is now an inevitable pandemic, projecting forward a few more weeks. If we are very, very lucky, it will not be but there is no indication at this point that is is containable without excellent preparation and very significant proactive measures for a long period of time.

We are thinking along the same lines. The good news so far is that it is appearing to be less transmissible than the flu.

The mortality rate is getting better and better estimated as time goes on, so the current WHO estimate of 3.4% is bad news, and I seriously doubt it's an instance of scaremongering. I'm not sure (as I think Kull commented below your post) that the mortality rate is a projection based on medical care availability, it's my impression (I could be wrong) that it's historical. Given how overwhelmed the medical system became in Wuhan/Hubei that amounts to the same thing, and I agree (with subsequent comments) that any nation's medical system could quickly become overwhelmed with this.

I read an brief article of a study which found that it is possible certain gene pools are either less susceptible or not susceptible to this virus (most of the population of sub-Saharan Africa and of course anyone with the relevant genes). If so, that would provide some relief.

Let's suppose the mortality rate is only 2%. If 1,000,000,000 people get COVID-19, that's 20,000,000. If 3.4% that's 34,000,000. It's quite possible that far more than 1,000,000,000 people will become infected.

Much depends on slowing the spread of COVID-19, developing effective treatments, a vaccine...



Scott_USN -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:48:21 PM)

China's new infection numbers are not only leveled they are dropping. Just from yesterday it was reported fewer were infected today. 119 new cases is not even much of a blip. Not downplaying the seriousness of the virus but I think it has to be taken in perspective. If it was going to go real bad I think their numbers in China would be exponentially climbing.



jeffk3510 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:56:58 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

My $.02: The only way we're going to stop this, is by taking it seriously and separating it from political issues. On this issue, dismissing it as a non-threat that will not create a pandemic will actually have the effect of guaranteeing a pandemic. The sooner we all get on the same page and work to contain it, the less damage this virus will do.

On a personal note, I'm being particularly vocal on this because my two elderly parents live in an apartment in our house. They are both in the very high risk group for this virus and if it goes through the community, because they also require regular health assistance beyond what I can provide, through visiting nurses, we will almost certainly be among the first affected. We can't really isolate ourselves effectively, so we have to hope this is taken seriously by others and that it does not become a large epidemic.

If it helps, if you want to see Distant Worlds 2 and Gary Grigsby's War in the East 2 and Steel Tigers anytime soon, please take this seriously!


I do hope nothing happens, and can understand your concerns. I would have them to if I lived closer to the cost and my parents are in a higher risk as well. Higher risk for a lot of things, not just this.

I just think the media has lost their minds with what is going on, and is pushing a false narrative at this time.

yes on DW2 - I really enjoy the first one.



Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 3:57:40 PM)

It's an interesting thought experiment - what would the flu mortality rate look like without the vaccine?

As for Covid-19, well, it's in the wild. This genie is not going back in the bottle. The world would be far better served to throw the vast sums being spent on "containment" into research ASAP and focus on a vaccine. And equally important, have a plan in place for expedited testing AND production and distribution.

Or continue to do what we've been doing which is to look like we're doing something.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:01:00 PM)

Yes, something's really wrong with the analysis here.

I don't think this will become a true pandemic, given the figures I've seen and how this is playing out to this point.

Also, credible sources are putting mortality at 0.2% to 0.4%, about a ninth of that WHO estimate. Something's really off there, but the raw data supports the lower number not the higher one.

And the number of new cases is steady each day. In the first four days of March, the total ranges from 1,400 to 2,400, with three of those days clustered around 2,400. The rate is not increasing; there's no exponential increase; nothing like it, in fact.

I don't like the "if you don't get on board with this/agree with me, you have your head in the sand/are going to make it harder to defeat this thing" line.

In the first place, I'll take the usual sensible precautions. Secondly, I'm trying to figure this out, and don't have any particular agenda other than to get at the truth. I did have misgivings about the media reporting accurately, so I stopped relying on it and tried to get as much reliable info as possible, to get a better grip on what's going on. I'm a layman, we're still early in this thing, and perhaps the data is inaccurate, but so far it isn't consistent with a pandemic. I understand that other sources, including some reputable ones, are reporting differently. That's why I started this thread, hoping to get more info, and more credible insight, from our learned members.

Like everybody else, I have vulnerable family members. All of us are hoping for the best. I don't think any of us have our heads in the sand. We do have varying levels of skepticism, but that's okay.



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:07:15 PM)

Coronavirus Outbreak? No Worries, Nanotechnology Is There to Help!

https://statnano.com/news/67483/Coronavirus-Outbreak-No-Worries-Nanotechnology-Is-There-to-Help!

"Given their high specific surface area and the possibility of being functionalized with a wide range of functional groups, nanomaterials such as gold nanoparticles and carbon quantum dots (CQDs) are standout choices for interacting with viruses and preventing their entry into cells."


"Furthermore, the coronavirus vaccine has recently been prepared by means of nanotechnology; the researchers of Shizuoka University, Japan, succeeded in synthesizing virus-like particles (VLPs) in the form of nanovesicles using insect cells. These particles are very similar to coronavirus, except that they do not have the virus genome; once they enter into the host’s cells, they stimulate the cells’ immune system to fight the infection caused by this virus type."



[image]local://upfiles/55056/CE05A797A01B4D31997988F89E0921F7.jpg[/image]



Erik Rutins -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:07:16 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I don't like the "if you don't get on board with this/agree with me, you have your head in the sand/are going to make it harder to defeat this thing" line.

Like everybody else, I have vulnerable family members. All of us are hoping for the best. I don't think any of us have our heads in the sand. We do have varying levels of skepticism, but that's okay.


No offense intended and I wasn't calling you out - I mainly just want people to take it seriously instead of dismiss it as pure fear-mongering and something that will fizzle out on its own. There is enough data out there, I believe, to require a serious analysis and response.

Regards,

- Erik




MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:18:57 PM)


VIRAL CHATTER
Scientists have caught viruses talking to each other—and that could be the key to a new age of anti-viral drugs
January 22, 2017

https://qz.com/890278/scientists-have-caught-viruses-talking-to-each-other-and-that-could-be-the-key-to-a-new-age-of-anti-viral-drugs/

"Some of the greatest scientific discoveries have been accidental. To that list, Israeli scientists have added one more. They’ve discovered for the first time an instance of viruses leaving messages for other viruses."


"After more than two years of searching through the protein mess, Sorek reports in the journal Nature that his team has found the protein that viruses used to communicate. His team has called the protein arbitrium, which is Latin for “decision.”

Sorek believes that when the levels of arbitrium build up, viruses switch their strategy from killing their host cells to injecting their genome. “It does make a lot of sense,” says Peter Fineran of the University of Otago told Nature. “If the phage is running out of hosts, it would try and limit its destruction, and sit quiet and wait for the host to re-establish growth.”"



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:26:23 PM)


New drug could cure nearly any viral infection

Researchers at MIT’s Lincoln Lab have developed technology that may someday cure the common cold, influenza and other ailments.


August 10, 2011

http://news.mit.edu/2011/antiviral-0810


"Rider drew inspiration for his therapeutic agents, dubbed DRACOs (Double-stranded RNA Activated Caspase Oligomerizers), from living cells’ own defense systems."

"Most of the tests reported in this study were done in human and animal cells cultured in the lab, but the researchers also tested DRACO in mice infected with the H1N1 influenza virus. When mice were treated with DRACO, they were completely cured of the infection. The tests also showed that DRACO itself is not toxic to mice."



Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:26:34 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

There is enough data out there, I believe, to require a serious analysis and response.



I agree. Let's start with how it's transmitted from one person to another:

"The new coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 appears to be fairly easily spread. But the good news is that it's not among the most transmissible diseases out there.

The new coronavirus spreads mostly through person-to-person contact within about a 6-foot (1.8 meters) radius, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). People with COVID-19, which is the disease caused by the coronavirus, spread viral particles through coughing and sneezing. The particles can land in the mouths or noses of those nearby.

It might also be possible to catch SARS-CoV-2 by touching a surface where the virus has recently landed and then touching one's mouth, nose or eyes, but CDC officials believe this method of transmission is less common. Some coronaviruses can live on surfaces for days, but not much is known about the new coronavirus' ability to survive on surfaces. Fortunately, ethanol, hydrogen-peroxide or bleach-based cleaners are effective at killing those coronaviruses that do survive on surfaces.

Unlike some extremely contagious pathogens, the virus is not thought to spread via smaller droplets that can remain airborne for long periods of time. Measles, for example, can live in the air for hours after an infected person coughs or sneezes. This is not currently believed to be the case for SARS-CoV-2."

That means sick people should stay home. I don't care what you have, the societal acceptance that it's "OK" to drag your coughing, feverish butt into the office is absolutely ridiculous, and it should be called out as the irresponsible behavior that is. If that attitude finally changes, we'll save lives not just in this case, but we'll eliminate a lot of needless flu deaths as well.

Coming down off the soap box, it also means that people should not be afraid of everything they touch. If you walk through the coughing person's cloud, you're at risk. Touching a shopping cart handle is probably pretty damn safe. If you have sick parents at home, don't let a coughing person in the house. If you happen to pick up the virus at the super market, you won't be transmitting it until you actually get sick and start hacking. At which point stick a mask on (the only time you should put one on) and go get tested to see if you have Covid 19, and take action accordingly.

It really isn't rocket science. People should take time to learn the facts of this thing, because there ARE steps you can take as an individual to help yourself and those you love.



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 4:26:41 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

My $.02: The only way we're going to stop this, is by taking it seriously and separating it from political issues. On this issue, dismissing it as a non-threat that will not create a pandemic will actually have the effect of guaranteeing a pandemic. The sooner we all get on the same page and work to contain it, the less damage this virus will do.

On a personal note, I'm being particularly vocal on this because my two elderly parents live in an apartment in our house. They are both in the very high risk group for this virus and if it goes through the community, because they also require regular health assistance beyond what I can provide, through visiting nurses, we will almost certainly be among the first affected. We can't really isolate ourselves effectively, so we have to hope this is taken seriously by others and that it does not become a large epidemic.

If it helps, if you want to see Distant Worlds 2 and Gary Grigsby's War in the East 2 and Steel Tigers anytime soon, please take this seriously!


If you are referring to me, I do take this seriously. I just don't want people to panic and/or allow all sorts of nonsense to occur that they would not ordinarily consider.

I am in more than one high risk group myself. I have mentioned elsewhere about some of my situations for risk so I won't repeat it here. Nor will I post any pictures of it. (Sorry Zorch!)

If either of your parents is a US wartime era veteran, then they may be eligible for aid and attendance through the US Veterans Administration.



BBfanboy -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 5:55:21 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn

quote:

ORIGINAL: Erik Rutins

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/as-the-coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-that-even-the-best-case-scenario-is-15-million-dead-and-a-2424-trillion-hit-to-global-gdp/ar-BB10MtVb


Been seeing this crisis being used as fuel for OTHER things...



From the original source
https://anu.prezly.com/coronavirus-is-highly-uncertain-and-the-costs-could-be-high?utm_source=email&utm_medium=campaign&utm_id=campaign_Ejmb_lbzJ.contact_RBhn_lDAN&asset_type=attachment&asset_id=171409#attachment-171409

PDF at the bottom of page.

"The idea that any country can be an island in an integrated global economy is proven wrong by the
latest outbreak of COVID-19. Global cooperation, especially in the sphere of public health and
economic development, is essential. All major countries need to participate actively. It is too
late to act once the disease has taken hold in many other countries and attempt to close borders
once a pandemic has started."

Along the same lines...

WHO Urges People To Go 'Cashless' Because 'Dirty Banknotes Can Spread The Virus'

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/who-warns-dirty-banknotes-may-be-spreading-virus-worldwide


I agree with the "filthy lucre" concern. I remember studies from forty years ago showing that money was full of germs. Just think of the guy you saw in the washroom leaving without washing his hands and heading to the food court.

As for media hyping the dangers, bear in mind that the WHO itself depends on fear of disease for countries to allocate money to it ... almost certainly it has been under-funded for years and now is in need of strong reactions to support its efforts. I heard one report that they have been trying to raise money for years to have strategic stockpiles of things like PPE for health care workers around the world. During the Ebola outbreak, African nations had to beg for the full-body protective suits that were needed to keep their HC workers on the job.



BBfanboy -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 6:15:45 PM)

Yesterday I ran into another example of a "doing something for the sake of doing something" activity at Costco. I parked my car and grabbed a cart in the parking lot as I headed to the store. On entry, an employee stopped me and wiped the top surface of the cart handle before letting me proceed. I was aghast at how they could think this helped in any way:

1. my hands had already been on that handle and they did not even offer the chance to disinfect them
2. they did not wipe the whole area that my hands would touch, specifically the parts where the fingers wrap around (just as in my earlier Italian train example)
3. they made no attempt to disinfect my credit and membership cards before I gave them to the cashier nor on return to me after the cashier handled them. Bear in mind that their cashiers regularly handle lots of filthy lucre too.

I have to conclude that the cart handle wipe was a corporate strategy to "reassure" customers who are not too aware of what a through disinfection entailed. Quite disingenuous! [:-]

As always, I kept my hands away from my face and when I got home, I washed them before unpacking my groceries, then washed them again afterward. Probably unnecessary, but it cost me almost nothing and makes me a little less concerned.



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 6:27:39 PM)

A wise precaution that hand washing. I see nothing wrong with shaming someone who did not wash their hands before leaving the restroom. On that note, a caveat. Those air hand dryers spread germs and such all over the building.



HansBolter -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 7:16:56 PM)

How is pushing the buttons on the key pad to input your PIN when using your debit card any less risky for transmission of disease than handling paper money?

And what about ATM touch screens?

We can't disinfect the entire world and make it sterile.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 7:30:12 PM)

Another statistical observation.

The cases in China leveled out dramatically, weeks ago. Very few new cases there (something like 120 per day). If that's true, the "pandemic" has run its course there.

The population in China is something like 1.4 billion. 80,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths. That's it.

I can't imagine that Western countries, with their excellent healthcare systems, will fare worse than China. I know that China imposed strict quarantine steps that won't be replicated in Western countries, but it seems highly unlikely that a thoroughly awakened and aroused Western healthcare system won't handle this considerably better.






jeffk3510 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 7:45:03 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Another statistical observation.

The cases in China leveled out dramatically, weeks ago. Very few new cases there (something like 120 per day). If that's true, the "pandemic" has run its course there.

The population in China is something like 1.4 billion. 80,000 confirmed cases and 3,000 deaths. That's it.

I can't imagine that Western countries, with their excellent healthcare systems, will fare worse than China. I know that China imposed strict quarantine steps that won't be replicated in Western countries, but it seems highly unlikely that a thoroughly awakened and aroused Western healthcare system won't handle this considerably better.






I couldn't agree with you more, Dan. This is the media at it's finest.



Erik Rutins -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 7:59:58 PM)

I can only say I hope you're right, but I'm not hearing the right communications or seeing the right steps to describe us as "awakened". With community-wide vigilance, engaged and informed citizens and plenty of surveillance capacity, it should be possible. We have fallen far short in all areas so far.

Regards,

- Erik



Erik Rutins -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 8:08:54 PM)

From Italy:

"At this moment in time, we believe it is important to share our first impressions and what we have learned in the first ten days of the COVID-19 outbreak.

We have seen a very high number of ICU admissions, almost entirely due to severe hypoxic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation.

The surge can be important during an outbreak and cluster containment has to be in place to slow down virus transmission.

We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our Intensive Care Units, in the range of 10% of all positive patients.
We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready!"

https://mailchi.mp/esicm/the-future-of-haemodynamic-monitoring-first-webinar-of-the-year-1009715



Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 8:12:30 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: HansBolter

How is pushing the buttons on the key pad to input your PIN when using your debit card any less risky for transmission of disease than handling paper money?

And what about ATM touch screens?

We can't disinfect the entire world and make it sterile.


Read the articles - even the good ones - very carefully. They all talk about how "some corona viruses" can live for extended periods on surfaces. Great, I don't care about "some", I want to know about this one. I have searched and searched and so far....3 months into the "pandemic".....here's what the world experts have to say: <crickets>

OK, well lets say for sake of argument that this specific virus CAN live on a surface for some period. Can I catch Covid-19 from a surface contact?

Here's what the CDC has to say:

"It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads."

Bolded for emphasis. We've got 90K+ "confirmed" cases and apparently not a single one can definitely be tied to "transmission via surface contact". So yes, lets run around spraying everything, because well, maybe.



Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 8:59:48 PM)

Let's put Covid-19 in perspective and compare it to flu season. According to the CDC, worldwide mortality during any given flu season ranges from 290K to 646K. That was a 2017 revision to the previous estimating methodology and was backed up by a different study in 2019.

In the US, the CDC has stats per season going back 10 years (and probably earlier), but lets just look at the most recent season for which full data is available:

"CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza."

So on that basis, COVID-19 has a lot of catching up to do. More to the point, in the US that's roughly 10% of the population, and half a million hospitalizations, yet the medical system handled it without any outside intervention.

Lastly there's this:

quote:

ORIGINAL: Kull

It's an interesting thought experiment - what would the flu mortality rate look like without the vaccine?


Thanks to the CDC, we don't need an "experiment":

[image]local://upfiles/25668/D232F75BBB134B9F9778B981245103C1.jpg[/image]



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 9:44:43 PM)

That is why I say don't panic but take sensible precautions.



alanschu -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 11:14:46 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

The yellow line on the Johns Hopkins graph excludes cases in China and looks nothing like the graph you just posted, Erik.

And look at daily new cases (the Johns Hopkins detail I posted, just above). Nearly all new cases are non-China now, but the number of new cases per day has been steady during March, mainly around 2,400.

How can we have a logarithmic increase without exponential growth?

That does not make mathematical sense.


If you fullscreen and filter out the other ones, Erik's graph is correct.

This screengrab is from 5:14pm MST right from the site.

EDIT: I had no idea embedding the picture would do what it did. SOrry!



[image]local://upfiles/23363/C6EF9809215E4E8181A4CFB6101E4120.jpg[/image]



MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/5/2020 11:36:39 PM)

LAX medical screener tests positive for Coronavirus

https://www.foxnews.com/health/lax-medical-screener-tests-positive-for-coronavirus

A medical screener at Los Angeles International Airport is one of six new confirmed cases of Coronavirus in California.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security says it’s unclear if the person contracted the virus through their work as a medical screener or from community transmission. The agency said no travelers screened at LAX have tested positive for Coronavirus.



Erik Rutins -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/6/2020 2:07:31 AM)

Adequate testing is like having good recon in battle. If you don't know where the enemy is, it's hard to win the fight. This is hopeful news from South Korea. I hope we can ramp up our testing in time:

https://sports.yahoo.com/south-korea-tests-hundreds-thousands-210000450.html



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