Lokasenna -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/13/2020 8:41:49 PM)
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ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote:
ORIGINAL: Lokasenna quote:
ORIGINAL: Canoerebel The press and those medically and/or politically opposed to re-opening predicted surges in new cases and morality when shelter-in-place ended in some states. But the Ro rates remain level or close thereto, including: Colorado, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Montana, Mississippi, Kansas and Idaho (source: https://rt.live/). The rates in each of those states is below 1.0, meaning the pandemic continues to decline. It's possible that the wheels may come off here or there, but to this point sky-is-falling assertions have been wrong. It hasn't been a disaster, no. But the jump in IHME modeled fatalities (up another 10k today, to 147k by August 4th) is a direct result of the easing of countermeasures. On the very day that the first gaggle of states announced they were going to end their lockdowns early, the IHME updated their numbers - from ~70K to >100K. That's a pretty big effect. We'll pass 100K confirmed dead in about another week. But aren't you presuming that that 'big effect' on predicted (and actual) numbers is from the ending of state lockdowns early? That hasn't really been the case. Mortality in the last two weeks has been the 'usual suspects' (MI, NY, NJ, MA) and a smattering of other states backfilling in the difference. You haven't got that 30,000 from Texas or Georgia or Montana or other states reopening earlier than others. Well, I can't time travel back to the day of the widening of the error bars and the jump in projected fatalities. I didn't have time then to dig more into it, and I wasn't planning to prepare an argument on it with evidence, so all I can do is note that the jump in projected fatalities occurred in the very next update after the governors announced a loosening of restrictions. I agree with the observation that in the last couple of weeks the deaths are largely driven by big states and a couple of others. It's worth noting that it's worth looking at the US-minus-NY if we want an idea of what is going on in the country as a whole, but there are few charts out there for that. I only saw one, and I think the person whose page I saw it on put it together on their own in Excel. That was more than a week ago, but NY still had a pronounced curve shape at that time for daily deaths. The US-minus-NY numbers showed a curve that was still increasing.
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