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durnedwolf -> RE: OT: Corona virus (5/15/2020 4:22:28 PM)
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ORIGINAL: mind_messing
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ORIGINAL: Lowpe
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ORIGINAL: obvert
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ORIGINAL: Lowpe
How decisions are made: 3 part time research assistants and a associate professor whip up a Covid model over the weekend that the:
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Governor Walz relied heavily on these projections when he made his decision to issue a stay-at-home order on March 27.
https://cse.umn.edu/college/feature-stories/modeling-covid-19-minnesota
Modeling COVID-19 for Minnesota
This is another good article about people with expertise stepping up to work through the day and night to help figure this out. Hats off to them for this work.
I also love that this is going these reserchers a chance to continue to work with new inputs and a better understanding as this develops to fine tune the tools they've created.
That is certainly one way of looking at it.[:)] Another might be to look at the relationship between ICU patients and confirmed cases.
Mid April there were 100 COVID patients in an ICU status with approx. 1,800 confirmed cases. A month later there are 200 COVID patients in ICU with 13,000 confirmed cases. With more testing the relationship between positive cases and ICU cases is likely to drop. Yet they are now projecting an increase to 3,600 ventilator cases over the next 8 weeks.
They are predicting 1700 deaths by end of May, 29,000 deaths for 12 months. They are according to worldometers at 672. Interesting to note, and sad, nursing home deaths account for 80%.
Also interesting that the model assumed an 80% compliance rate with the lockdown, but they just reported that there is about a 36% compliance. How that is measured I don't know...cell phone tracking perhaps? 36 is an awfully specific number.
I will give kudos to MN for releasing the model publicly, but it took them until yesterday to do it..
That's one way, however the most common is just a random sample asking about intentions to comply. If it's as low as 36% - eek!
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ORIGINAL: Canoerebel
I'm not sure about editing, but I doubt it. The lectures are pretty long and editing takes a long time. They are necessary at the moment, and could have other uses (as you note), but IMO will never come close to the classroom environment. I've been teaching in classrooms for more than 30 years and love it. I can't imagine that remote learning could ever replace the old-fashioned way. It's a necessity (or convenience) of this modern world, but yuck.
I think it depends both on the teacher and the learner. I've seen some great online lectures (Tim Pychyl springs immediately to mind), and what is engaging in person should also be engaging online.
To my mind the problem is that you've significantly less control over the learning environment with online classes, and interaction is much more of a challenge.
It is, however, something I would like to see become the norm. Bricks and mortar learning establishments have a role to play but we often forget that not everyone is in a position to attend bricks and mortar establishments.
They didn't have any colleges here in the U.S. until Harvard in 1636. You can't stop someone from learning if they want the knowledge. What I really gained from the classroom experience were the open discussions between students and the instructors, and in truth, those classes were few and far between. Most classes I took were primarily lectured, with little in-the-class participation.
I will note that there are some very good platforms for online instruction. Zoom and other video-meeting products allow students & instructors from all over the world to meet and chat just as if you were on the phone with them - but with the additional benefit of being able to share their computer screen with everyone in the meeting. Study groups can actually work on a paper in real-time, or divvy up a project and then get feedback from their group as they are in the process of merging everything together into a final presentation.
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