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Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/15/2020 3:37:58 PM)
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Unfortunately it seems like Spain is about to undergo the same kind of thing Italy's been dealing with the past week or two. It seems likely that France will follow suit.
But the underlying numbers continue to be somewhat encouraging. We have a good picture from China and South Korea. It will be essential to see how things go in Italy over the next week, but some early numbers and trends are encouraging. If that proves true, it's likely to be similar in other countries in Europe, followed by America, etc. And those countries that experienced on-set later than others, due to distance or whatever, may have learned enough, and may be able to implement things soon enough, to avoid or dampen an Italy-like experience.
To this point, China and South Korea didn't experience catastrophic numbers. The deaths, sickness and impact on people and economies are real, but the number of deaths (the most reliable statistic, to this early point) are far less than a seasonal flu. Will that happen in Italy? I think so, though I'm not yet positive. But the numbers and trends are modestly encouraging, this early on.
There will be fluctuations in other countries, such as Singapore and Malaysia and perhaps Germany showing surprisingly low death rates while some others will pop the other way. But, overall, I'll be surprised if the trends don't follow what we're beginning to see elsewhere.
Those are observations based upon reports by apparently reputable sites, along with what I read in here and from some mainline news organizations. I am not plugged into social media, so I'm not privy to what may be going on there, but I suspect it's feeding a sense of doom, much as the media typically does. In some ways, that may be good as it gets people off their duffs and acting. But aside from the hysteria that's evident, the underlying numbers may be encouraging. And the level of response and quality of healthcare in countries now experiencing exponential growth should make a difference.
Over the next 24 hours, Italy will be key. If it mushrooms again, my optimism will dampen a bit. If the current trend continues, then we've got something to work with.
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