RE: OT: Corona virus

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CaptBeefheart -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 2:04:25 AM)
A few things: Japan This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19 The piece was edited by one of the chaps I had beers with on Friday night. Here's an excerpt: quote: As the weather warms up, people are gathering in droves to get drunk under the blossoming cherry trees, some restaurants are offering 30% “Beat The Coronavirus” discounts, public transport is full and even amusement parks are reopening. So why aren’t more people dying? Japan has recorded a mere 49 deaths from Covid-19. The answer is not simple: multiple factors are at work. However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced. That may sound opaque – even inhuman. But it has ensured national calm and continued economic activity. It has kept the medical system from being overwhelmed and rests on a strong foundation: world-class treatment of the disease’s main symptomatic killer, pneumonia. Hospital Capacity Regarding hospital capacity, the USAF has a moth-balled hospital at Gimhae Air Base (I once had a tour of the facility) near Busan, Korea, which gets activated once in a while during exercises. Although you could sprinkle these kinds of things around the country, I'm not sure how cost-effective they would be. Korea Also, the Korean government is now going after churches, indoor sporting events and nightclubs in Korea--basically they are targeting establishments that have gotten bad PR recently. Some nightclubs in Gangnam are packed with them young 'uns. Cheers, CB

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 4:41:05 AM)
The cost of maintaining such building would be high, if not done the buildings would fall apart. Here we have declining populations with school consolidations. If the schools are not maintained, including heating, in a few years there are structural problems.

ITAKLinus -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 8:00:43 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Kull quote: ORIGINAL: alanschu Unfortunate about Italy though based on say, China, I suspect that part of the flattening will involve an actual plateau, as opposed to a sudden decline. It's funny how anxious I am for their results hahaha. I won't have granularity until the province data is available tomorrow, but here's a quick look at the trend based on the new country total. The rate of increase at the country level has stayed roughly the same for two days now. The death rate increase, while high, is definitely a trailing indicator and yet still a lot lower than it was a few days ago. Also, the numbers posted by ITAKLinus are not accurate. I used the 3/24 update from Worldometers, which has proven to be correct (at least with respect to countries whose data we trust) [image]local://upfiles/25668/97B2CA4C90804D1E95502E6054725730.jpg[/image] I used the data given daily at 1800 by Protezione Civile, the state entity managing the emergency. I believe they are the original source of worldometers.

obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 8:23:13 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart A few things: Japan This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19 The piece was edited by one of the chaps I had beers with on Friday night. Here's an excerpt: quote: As the weather warms up, people are gathering in droves to get drunk under the blossoming cherry trees, some restaurants are offering 30% “Beat The Coronavirus” discounts, public transport is full and even amusement parks are reopening. So why aren’t more people dying? Japan has recorded a mere 49 deaths from Covid-19. The answer is not simple: multiple factors are at work. However, a Japanese official who gave an off-the-record briefing to Asia Times suggested that a “don’t ask, don’t tell” strategy, based on minimal testing and buttressed by information massage, has been quietly emplaced. That may sound opaque – even inhuman. But it has ensured national calm and continued economic activity. It has kept the medical system from being overwhelmed and rests on a strong foundation: world-class treatment of the disease’s main symptomatic killer, pneumonia. Cheers, CB A very interesting article on Japan. Looks like a bit of cooking the books on Covid to keep things going, paired with great treatment of pneumonia using early scanning and lots of different drugs. The current “treat the symptoms approach” seems to be working. If you go to the doctor in Japan with symptoms of pneumonia or breathing difficulties, they are very unlikely to give you a test for the novel coronavirus, but are likely to give you a CT scan or X-ray. If medical pros find you have pneumonia, they will begin treating you. There is a very good chance you will be cured. And if you are cured, they probably will not test you for coronavirus. So a case of Covid-19 vanishes – literally and statistically. Again, a totally different strategy to anything anyone else seems to be trying. “We are in a period where containment is probably not realistic,” the official said. “We need to focus on treating the serious cases and most experts would quietly agree. If everyone is urged to get testing, then medical institutions will overflow with people who do not need to be there. This not only detracts from taking care of more critical cases, it could indirectly result in a greater health crisis.” Wow. “Ask yourself, ‘What is the value of wisdom when it brings no benefit to those who are the wiser?’ Most of the infected will recover on their own, thanks to their own immune systems. We need to first take care of those whose immune systems are failing them, or the health care system itself will fail.” That appears to have kept the medical sector from being overwhelmed. However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized. “Frankly, I have not considered it,” said the official. Two very different strategies right next to each other in SK and in Japan, each working to keep the health sector working while protecting the majority of the population and aggressively treating the vulnerable and critically ill.

CaptBeefheart -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 8:50:40 AM)
Obvert: One other factor is that things may change in Japan now that the Olympics are being pushed back. Maybe they'll become more transparent. By the way, regarding: "However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized." This idea has been shot down on my friend's Facebook page by various medical professionals. Cheers, CB

obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 9:02:50 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart Obvert: One other factor is that things may change in Japan now that the Olympics are being pushed back. Maybe they'll become more transparent. By the way, regarding: "However, one tantalizing possibility – that the vaccination program for pneumonia which Japan has been enacting for the elderly since 2014 may be acting as a shield against Covid-19 – has not yet been scrutinized." This idea has been shot down on my friend's Facebook page by various medical professionals. Cheers, CB Good to know. It is just a weird situation to figure out considering these kinds of reports from all over the world, as this one from France. The number of confirmed coronavirus cases in France, as reported from the daily update last evening, is 22,300, a rise of 2,444 in a day, 10,176 people are in hospital with the virus, 2,516 of them in intensive care (34% of ICU cases are aged under 60). If 34% of ICU cases are under-60, how is this not happening at a staggering level in Japan? Good hand washing aside, they're inter-mixing much more than these countries that have been on lockdown for over a week, like France, Spain and especially Italy. I'm sure Italians now are exhibiting as much or more hygiene as the Japanese, have as high or higher incidence of mask-wearing, and are in almost total isolation, compared to getting drunk under the cherry blossom trees and eating out at Covid special 30% off restaurants!

Chickenboy -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 11:09:31 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: CaptBeefheart A few things: Japan This is a very interesting article on what's happening in Japan: Japan’s winning its quiet fight against Covid-19 Great stuff, CaptBeefheart! [&o]

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 11:38:02 AM)
Japan Confirmed: 1,193 Deaths: 43 Recovered: 285 Active: 865 One boon may be the Japanese eat a anti-inflammatory diet.

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 11:43:45 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: geofflambert quote: ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn ?????????? May/June 1998 issue of Columbia Journalism Review “Factoid Watch: Food poisoning's phony figures". By Dan Wilson Can you pull that? So far only from here and I have no "Sign In" https://go.gale.com/ps/anonymous?id=GALE%7CA20620070&sid=googleScholar&v=2.1&it=r&linkaccess=abs&issn=0010194X&p=AONE&sw=w I went to see how far I got. Apparently some public libraries have credentials, so if you know somebody ... [image]local://upfiles/37002/41B8BE7BE96F420FB27C8012AAFD40D7.jpg[/image] Yes, if that is the correct article then Chickenboy can find it in a library that has a periodicals department. A University. I found the article referenced in the bibliography of several books.

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 11:50:44 AM)
quote: ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn Japan Confirmed: 1,193 Deaths: 43 Recovered: 285 Active: 865 One boon may be the Japanese eat a anti-inflammatory diet. That might also help the Indians with their curries.

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 11:51:33 AM)
About 10 years I had a talk with a banker from Ohio who had just spent several years in China. One of the things he told me was how wars would be waged in the future. This goes right along with what is happening now.

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 11:54:31 AM)
COVID-19: Spain surpasses China’s death toll Over last 24-hours, country reported 738 deaths, raising death toll to 3,434, confirmed nearly 8,000 new cases 25.03.2020 https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/covid-19-spain-surpasses-china-s-death-toll/1778871 "With 3,434 deaths, Spain overtook China in terms of the number of mortal victims from COVID-19, according to official data released by the country's Health Ministry on Wednesday. In a 24-hour period, 738 people died and the total number of confirmed cases surged by nearly 8,000, hitting 47,610. Spain also has one of the highest proportion of healthcare workers affected by coronavirus, with over 5,400 confirmed cases, according to data from Tuesday."

RFalvo69 -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:01:15 PM)
A timelapse tour through the streets of Rome under quarantine: https://twitter.com/i/status/1242774656630882304

MakeeLearn -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:03:12 PM)
Countries are starting to hoard food, threatening global trade 3.25.20 https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/countries-are-starting-to-hoard-food-threatening-global-trade/ar-BB11EY3M?li=BBnb7Kz "It’s not just grocery shoppers who are hoarding pantry staples. Some governments are moving to secure domestic food supplies during the conoravirus pandemic. To be perfectly clear, there have been just a handful of moves and no sure signs that much more is on the horizon. Still, what’s been happening has raised a question: Is this the start of a wave of food nationalism that will further disrupt supply chains and trade flows?"

Cap Mandrake -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:10:34 PM)
Some stuff the public health people don't tell you: "pre-existing condition" includes not just the obvious stuff like CHF and COPD and diabetes...but also hyperlipidemia and hypertension, both of which are extremely prevalent in middle aged adults. Then there is smoking and drinking. You know those friends who start to get red noses and cheeks as they age? Well, that is often microvascular disease from yeast ****. It's not just on the face either. It's in the lungs and it causes "shunting" which destroys the efficiency of gas exchange. You use an inhaler twice a year? You have a mild form of chronic lung disease. Smoked for 10 years as a kid? Still got some lung disease. The point is if you start including everything as a pre-existing condition a large number of those over 40 have one. It is a trick the public health people use to avoid causing panic. Do what you can to avoid this thing. Try to delay getting sick until there is a possible window of less transmissibility in the summer or there is a good prophylactic or therapeutic treatment or, even better, a vaccine. You need to lasso in everyone in your house and get your parents or grandparents to a very safe place with few people in the residence, no kids and almost no visitors. Over age 80 the rate of sever disease is truly shocking.

RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:22:34 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake Some stuff the public health people don't tell you: "pre-existing condition" includes not just the obvious stuff like CHF and COPD and diabetes...but also hyperlipidemia and hypertension, both of which are extremely prevalent in middle aged adults. Then there is smoking and drinking. You know those friends who start to get red noses and cheeks as they age? Well, that is often microvascular disease from yeast ****. It's not just on the face either. It's in the lungs and it causes "shunting" which destroys the efficiency of gas exchange. You use an inhaler twice a year? You have a mild form of chronic lung disease. Smoked for 10 years as a kid? Still got some lung disease. The point is if you start including everything as a pre-existing condition a large number of those over 40 have one. It is a trick the public health people use to avoid causing panic. Do what you can to avoid this thing. Try to delay getting sick until there is a possible window of less transmissibility in the summer or there is a good prophylactic or therapeutic treatment or, even better, a vaccine. You need to lasso in everyone in your house and get your parents or grandparents to a very safe place with few people in the residence, no kids and almost no visitors. Over age 80 the rate of sever disease is truly shocking. The young people vaping, those e-cigarette things, the popcorn lungs . . .

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:25:22 PM)
I saw this article last night positing a reason for the situation in Italy. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/ The author's theory is that the virus got into Italy's health care system as mild cases not recognized at the time, and has wound up hitting those elderly and vulnerable people whom we know have been hardest hit. The small updates at the end add new info that seems to mitigate in favor of his theory.

Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:37:06 PM)
The Italian country-level rate of increase appears to have plateaued again, but actually most provinces continue to show a reduction in the rate of increase. There is one in particular - Piedmont - that has never been able to fall below double-digit increases, and actually rose to 13.4% on 3/24. If that single province had kept new cases at 400 (the number from the day before) instead of rising to 700, the country rate would have dropped to 7.8% instead of rising to 8.2%. The best news came from the Aosta Valley where the rate of increase fell to 1.8% (only 7 new cases). A small place without many cases, but the rate of increase was consistently in double digits, yet dropped precipitously over the past two days. It would be nice to see that elsewhere. Lastly, it's worth looking at a statistical oddity in the Veneto. Although it's among the hardest hit Italian provinces in terms of cases, the death rate has consistently been right around 3.3%, which is 1/3 of the Italian rate as a whole, and 4x less than neighboring Lombardy. No idea why. Pertinent links: 1) Daily Italian Stats by province here 2) Original post with regional map of Italy here 3) The last post on this topic here [image]local://upfiles/25668/73C668221B5740B6929269D77033B84F.jpg[/image]

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:44:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs The trouble with anti-body testing (AFAIK) is that it does not confirm when a person was infected or developed the anti-bodies, so by the time that could be done it still might do nothing to confirm this theory. A single serologic antibody survey is like a snapshot: it tells you what was happening at the time the blood was drawn. For a time study, one can perform paired samples: acute and convalescent serologic surveys. Check antibodies at time 0 and time 0+ down the line. I think we can assume that there was no seroconversion to COVID-19 in GB prior to September 2019. So you can use some stored public serum for your t=0 snapshot. Then compare to whenever (e.g., now) you want your next snapshot. If the authors of that theory are serious, then they need to provide some baseline evidence of seroconversion in the UK populace prior to, or in January 2020. Why don't they get some National Health / blood bank stored serum from there to buttress their computer model? My jaundiced worldview says its because they're some computer modeling wankers that are out of touch with reality, but I could be wrong. I get that, but - if I understand the science & technology wrong please tell me - that process would still only tell you if each person got it (developed the antibodies) between the two tests. And since there is no way to apply an adequate number of antibody tests basically right now, we will still be left with how things are right now being uncertain. If we get an adequate number of test results later on which show a much lower infection rate then we would know his theory is wrong, but if we later get test results which show the claimed rate of infection we still would not know if he was right because many persons could have been infected later.

Cap Mandrake -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:44:58 PM)
As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well. possible explanations: 1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated 2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg. 3) Japan has a 100% water frontier. 4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help. 5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams. 6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology

Chickenboy -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 12:56:16 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. I read a paper by two human Chinese radiologists on their use of CT compared to RT-PCR for interpretational diagnostics. They claimed 97% sensitivity, but repeatedly glossed over specificity. That's only about 70%-from their 'official data'. It's an interesting finding, if true. But the RSNA (Radiologic Society of North America) is still not recommending CT as a screening tool-probably because you have a grossly contaminated CT suite that is not amenable to decontamination between patients. https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200843

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:05:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Chickenboy quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. I read a paper by two human Chinese radiologists on their use of CT compared to RT-PCR for interpretational diagnostics. They claimed 97% sensitivity, but repeatedly glossed over specificity. That's only about 70%-from their 'official data'. It's an interesting finding, if true. But the RSNA (Radiologic Society of North America) is still not recommending CT as a screening tool-probably because you have a grossly contaminated CT suite that is not amenable to decontamination between patients. https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200843 Ouch.

Cap Mandrake -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:20:42 PM)
The Chicoms actually accepted lung CT as diagnostic for inclusion into the COVID-19 numbers. They also didn't have enough test kits either at the start. Plus, you can estimate the amount of COPD as well and it was probably useful to tell who would need a vent soon. I suspect by the time this is over you just throw away your worn out $1M CT machine and don't bother with disinfecting the thing

Kull -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:29:14 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: MakeeLearn COVID-19: Spain surpasses China’s death toll Over last 24-hours, country reported 738 deaths, raising death toll to 3,434, confirmed nearly 8,000 new cases Before all this is over, I have a bad feeling that Spain will make Italy look like a model country. If anyone wants to follow this more closely, you can easily create a per-province daily tracking spreadsheet using the data from here (see attached screenshot). I first posted on this using March 20th data (only 4 days earlier), and their case numbers have doubled in that time. Deaths have almost tripled. Ominously, unlike Italy where you have a clear dichotomy between a few northern provinces and the rest of the country, there are two large nodes (Madrid and Catalonia), and five others at around 3K each. That doesn't auger well for Spain's ability to offload patients into regions with excess capacity - there won't be any. It also appears the government is lying about testing, so it's hard to know exactly where they are on the infection curve. Ugly and likely to get much uglier. [image]local://upfiles/25668/F87D236BCB1641C89AAAD32928335EA3.jpg[/image]

witpqs -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:34:25 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake The Chicoms actually accepted lung CT as diagnostic for inclusion into the COVID-19 numbers. They also didn't have enough test kits either at the start. Plus, you can estimate the amount of COPD as well and it was probably useful to tell who would need a vent soon. I suspect by the time this is over you just throw away your worn out $1M CT machine and don't bother with disinfecting the thing So if you don't have it but get scanned for it - you get it? [:'(]

obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:36:20 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: witpqs I saw this article last night positing a reason for the situation in Italy. https://wattsupwiththat.com/2020/03/24/the-italian-connection/ The author's theory is that the virus got into Italy's health care system as mild cases not recognized at the time, and has wound up hitting those elderly and vulnerable people whom we know have been hardest hit. The small updates at the end add new info that seems to mitigate in favor of his theory. While this may be true, the author lists no evidence to support his claim other than the already known age related and co-morbidity numbers. I don't know that those would be terribly different elsewhere. He also doesn't mention that many younger people are hospitalised and need ICUs, etc, which in a triage system likely means those with less chance to survive treatment (age and co-morbidity) are not given the ICU beds. I'd say this as much as anything might be why higher numbers of older people have died. I have no official evidence either, though I have heard this form several first hand accounts of Italian hospitals right now, unfortunately. It's been widely reported here that one should avoid the Emergency section of any hospital right now in London, as you're likely to come into contact with multiple cases of Covid. I'm sure whether it spreads early or later, those in hospital already were indeed very vulnerable to those who were treating them, visiting them and didn't know they were passing the virus.

obvert -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:42:04 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well. possible explanations: 1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated 2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg. 3) Japan has a 100% water frontier. 4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help. 5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams. 6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments. So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that.

Cap Mandrake -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:47:19 PM)
LA Times article about mathematically predicting the peak of Chinese COVID-19. A total braniac dude who won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry for using mathematical techniques to examine molecular systems takes the Chinese data...sees an inflection point and realizes they are turning the corner..derives a function matching the data..first derivative..solves for zero..presto change-o...he predicts the date and the maximum number of cases to astounding precision. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate We need to get this guy in here to explain Japanese production

Cap Mandrake -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:49:46 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: obvert quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake As for Japan, I suspect it's not "pneumonia" vaccine programs. The vaccine is specific for pneumococcus. The CT findings of COVID pneumonia are very distinctive (peripheral disease and "ground glass" densities. Plus, sick patients usually ARE treated with antibiotics and it doesn't seem to work very well. possible explanations: 1) A very large number of the initial cases in Japan were from the SS Princess Coronavirus. They knew ahead of time who had the disease with a high level of certainty. These patients were all carefully isolated 2) The Chinese don't very much like the Japanese and I think it's mutual. Last time a large number of Chinese tried to visit Japan the "divine wind" came along and killed them all. I don't think there is very much of a Chinese expat community in Japan like there is in Hawaii and SF and LA and Vancouver and NY and Singapore for eg. 3) Japan has a 100% water frontier. 4) The Japanese public respects seniors and those in authority and they culturally understand the value in social order. They don't go to freaking Spring Break and drink from common beer bongs. In the US, the Surgeon General had to ask the Kardashians for help. 5) Japanese seniors are MUCH healthier than almost any other population. Essentially everyone over about 78 in Japan grew up in wartime deprivation. It turns out if Curtis LeMay didn't drop incendiaries or a nuke on your head, living on calorie restriction in childhood confers longevity. Of course, it does make for lousy basketball teams. 6) Excellent cadre of skilled health providers in Japan and advanced technology Not sure if you read the article, but in addition to these very valid points, they're essentially not counting possible cases as Covid, not testing much at all, telling people who have symptoms to stay home, and only those with severe pneumonia are getting the very good and aggressive treatments. So it's some of all of that, but they'e still partying. The Japanese and British have something in common; they lighten up and ease their formality after a pints/bottles of sake. I think there are a lot of cases there now, and the Japanese don't want anyone, including their populace, to know that. Don't try the Japanese approach in the UK. Not sure British seniors are as healthy. [:)]

Zorch -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/25/2020 1:52:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Cap Mandrake LA Times article about mathematically predicting the peak of Chinese COVID-19. A total braniac dude who won the Nobel Prize for Chemistry for using mathematical techniques to examine molecular systems takes the Chinese data...sees an inflection point and realizes they are turning the corner..derives a function matching the data..first derivative..solves for zero..presto change-o...he predicts the date and the maximum number of cases to astounding precision. https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-22/coronavirus-outbreak-nobel-laureate We need to get this guy in here to explain Japanese production How many HI does it take to create a unit of Corona virus?

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