Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Corona virus (3/27/2020 8:01:29 PM)
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Obvert asked for good news. An admitted optimist (without credentials), I've seen a lot of good raw data and reports. For instance, that UK university that revised its mortality estimate down for UK from something like 500k to 20k (IIRC). And while the headlines blare disaster, estimates for the US are coming down. A University of Washington study has it at 80k, which is down from the 300 zillion we were seeing a few weeks ago. Ditto reports that the virus would peak in the US "in the second week of April," which is considerably sooner than other estimates. And the reports from many states are not particularly alarming. Quite a few of these saw community transmission at the same time as NY and others, yet growth has been fairly undramatic. I support and agree with the taking of strong countermeasures, since there was a high element of unknown about this and cataclysmic predictions of disaster. It was good to err on the cautious side and most states and jurisdictions have acted fairly quickly. Numbers are crazy things. A few weeks ago, I told my secretary that 20 people had died in China. She freaked out. Disaster! When, of course, I meant it as great news that the pandemic had tapered off there. I'm hearing similar reactions here, there, everywhere. But the underlying numbers are still small in many countries, certainly in most states, and don't show the kinds of increases that would indicate apocalypse. I think we get through this okay, at least here. John Dillworth expressed optimism for NYC yesterday, which was great to hear. If we do make it without disaster, then we buy the time needed to get to the bottom of things and handle it better next time it pops up. Yeah, I'm optimistic.** **While realizing that some countries, most certainly Italy, Spain, some others, are really hurting per capita and probably more than they would suffer from any kind of seasonal flu.
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