RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (Full Version)

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obvert -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 8:18:59 AM)

Around the start of May Imperial College in London published a report saying Rt levels were still to high in relation to projected mobility that would be increased when States reopened. They hypothesised that if states did reopen there would be a rise in Rt and a new outbreak of cases that might require more severe closures.

As it appears this is happening, here are the Rt rates for the states two months ago and now. While mortality projections are currently low, if cases rise, those will rise also. If Rt is above one, mobility and social interaction is increased, cases will continue to rise. The same Imperial study projected only about 16% of New Yorkers have had Covid (with error margins from 11-25% IIRC). If the hardest hit state has only 25% with some antibody protection (and how much is still unknown) it's going to take a long time for herd immunity to occur anywhere.

The IHME now uses several factors to predict better and worse scenarios based on some measures in place, mask wearing, etc. They also have stopped using published tested numbers and only use projected cases now, which are 5-10x higher than actual published case increases it seems.

Mask wearing is the one thing everyone can do at little cost to themselves that will both help them and everyone else reduce spread. Will they do it?

[image]local://upfiles/37283/2C2BDDF86FDD4C2FA435F864A41A6B08.jpg[/image]



obvert -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 8:27:09 AM)

This shows IHMEs new format, with easing clicked and mask wearing clicked. They project that by Oct 1 universal (95% rate) of mask wearing with measures for social distancing in place when daily deaths get to 8 per million would reduce deaths by 25k. That's a lot.

Their other predictions all assume that measures would be established if daily deaths get to 8 per million in any area. Of course to know that there will have to be extensive continued testing and the will and ability to get areas to close up again. I'm very doubtful that will be possible in the States.

Here in the UK Imperial also predicted that easing could go very wrong quickly and small areas might have to be closed to contain outbreaks. It seems that's happening already as the city of Leicester has had a lockdown imposed. I hope that opening bars and restaurants on July 4 will not have similar consequences to what happened in many states. The Rt here is meant to be just below 1 in most places, and slightly lower in London, from what I can tell.


[image]local://upfiles/37283/2C62E47800714344B2F0F6653DF74284.jpg[/image]



mind_messing -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 8:49:28 AM)

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.



Sammy5IsAlive -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 10:37:44 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert



Here in the UK Imperial also predicted that easing could go very wrong quickly and small areas might have to be closed to contain outbreaks. It seems that's happening already as the city of Leicester has had a lockdown imposed. I hope that opening bars and restaurants on July 4 will not have similar consequences to what happened in many states. The Rt here is meant to be just below 1 in most places, and slightly lower in London, from what I can tell.





On this, Sky are reporting that 36 other boroughs are at risk of needing to re-impose lockdown measures similar to Leicester

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594



Nomad -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 1:52:20 PM)

Without comment, an article on Georgia's Covid-19 deaths:

https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/once-seen-outbreak-disaster-making-georgia-just-hit-3-month-low-covid



BBfanboy -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 1:56:14 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

Not really pointless - an airing of views/judgements about what information is showing is useful to figure out where people are "coming from" in their assertions. We all tend to gravitate toward the info that supports our judgements, while rejecting what others say is the correct judgement. Contrary opinion has shown me that the news sources I usually watch are a bit too vehement in their disaster reporting/projections while the ones I don't pay much attention to are overconfident in the good news department.

Neither side is going to change their minds without some truly shocking experience. (That as Prof. Morris Massey's theory in his book "What You Are Is Where You Were When"). Arizona and Texas are currently having a great shock that has their medical capacity strained to its limit. I believe the Texas Governor has announce re-imposition of restrictions that he previously believed were not necessary. Massive shock - change of viewpoint. That's how psychology works.




RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 2:08:14 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

Not really pointless - an airing of views/judgements about what information is showing is useful to figure out where people are "coming from" in their assertions. We all tend to gravitate toward the info that supports our judgements, while rejecting what others say is the correct judgement. Contrary opinion has shown me that the news sources I usually watch are a bit too vehement in their disaster reporting/projections while the ones I don't pay much attention to are overconfident in the good news department.

Neither side is going to change their minds without some truly shocking experience. (That as Prof. Morris Massey's theory in his book "What You Are Is Where You Were When"). Arizona and Texas are currently having a great shock that has their medical capacity strained to its limit. I believe the Texas Governor has announce re-imposition of restrictions that he previously believed were not necessary. Massive shock - change of viewpoint. That's how psychology works.


Well, someone may consider it pointless if we suddenly don't adhere to their point of view. [:-]

I prefer to look at many different sources and then decide where the truth is and it is usually somewhere in the middle.

As far as some states in the US, there are different subcultures and attitudes, it is not uniform throughout the entire United States. I am pretty sure that Canada is similar in that the West is different than the East - not to mention Quebec!

Then there is the rural, semi-urban, and densely urban areas. Some large cities like New York and London have been hit hard while few rural area have been hit that hard. Most of the rural areas that have been hit hard were because of refugees from an urban area already hit fleeing there, or some other known reason such as funerals.



Sammy5IsAlive -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 2:31:08 PM)

Something to think about re. the 'lag' between cases and deaths. The more that you test not only will the case fatality rate decline but the lag will also increase. You'll be recording peoples cases earlier in the progression of the illness. Also if you assume that higher testing numbers result in healthier people being tested - not only will you have a lower death rate but also those people will take longer to die.





BBfanboy -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 2:32:56 PM)

You are correct about Canada RJ. We have not done everything right either, but we tend to be flexible rather than set in our beliefs, so we get much less upset when we have to change our minds and start doing things we don't want to do. Some would call this attitude wishy-washy, I just call it coping with dissonance.

Some of the stuff we outsiders hear about makes us scratch our heads. For example, last night I news program I watch reported on a big outbreak in a tiny, sparsely populated county in northern Nebraska. This county had more new daily COVID cases than the state's Capital of Omaha. The county made several ordinances to improve safety while remaining open for business. One of these was requiring visitors to the courthouse to wear masks. Seems like a good idea to protect the people who work in the courthouse.

But the Governor of Nebraska decided that rule should be vetoed, presumably because some citizens didn't like wearing masks and felt it was an infringement on their freedom. Arguments can be made both ways but it comes to a value judgement about when concepts like freedom should be constrained by realities of the moment. Head scratcher.

Oh, and the reason this county is having more cases than Omaha - a meat packing plant. No one has figured out how to make them safe yet, it seems.



mind_messing -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 2:39:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BBfanboy

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.

Not really pointless - an airing of views/judgements about what information is showing is useful to figure out where people are "coming from" in their assertions. We all tend to gravitate toward the info that supports our judgements, while rejecting what others say is the correct judgement. Contrary opinion has shown me that the news sources I usually watch are a bit too vehement in their disaster reporting/projections while the ones I don't pay much attention to are overconfident in the good news department.




Not, it was pointless to have pointed out that the travel ban between the US and the EU was not unilateral. Can't let that fact get in the way of a good narrative that the underlying motivation is dislike for US culinary habits.

Confirmation bias with evidence is a thing, but as we've seen (even in this thread) there's a concerning trend to neglect what the evidence actually tells us and instead what we "feel" is happening. While both have value, emotion should not supplant facts.

quote:

Neither side is going to change their minds without some truly shocking experience. (That as Prof. Morris Massey's theory in his book "What You Are Is Where You Were When"). Arizona and Texas are currently having a great shock that has their medical capacity strained to its limit. I believe the Texas Governor has announce re-imposition of restrictions that he previously believed were not necessary. Massive shock - change of viewpoint. That's how psychology works.


"I never thought leopards would eat MY face!"




RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 2:53:03 PM)

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.



mind_messing -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 3:08:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.


Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 3:27:45 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.


Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?


quote:

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.


https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french-food-wine/french-etiquette-for-drinking/



mind_messing -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 6:12:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe


quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.


Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?


quote:

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.


https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french-food-wine/french-etiquette-for-drinking/


Glad you went for the obvious one, now want to explain what that has to do with Covid, other than to imply that it's in response to a general perception of American insensitivity to local customs?



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 6:33:28 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.


Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?


quote:

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.


https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french-food-wine/french-etiquette-for-drinking/


Glad you went for the obvious one, now want to explain what that has to do with Covid, other than to imply that it's in response to a general perception of American insensitivity to local customs?


You wrote that you would settle for one so that is all that you are going to get.

When are you going to explain this with proofs:

quote:

mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.




mind_messing -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 8:27:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

quote:

ORIGINAL: mind_messing

quote:

ORIGINAL: RangerJoe

Sometimes feelings are based upon facts that are not readily apparent. Just like a dog not liking someone, there may be no apparent reason but it is something to consider. Or just like a mother's or a woman's intuition, you may not be able to quantify and measure it but it is there. That is the gut feeling, ignore it at your peril.

Remember that some people need to make things appear worse for their own agenda, which just might be a byline in the paper or news feed.

As far as American culinary habits, I read where the French don't like Americans drinking Coke with their meals as a wine should be preferred. There is also a reason why American eat with their elbows on the table.


Case in point.

Want to support any (will settle for one) of your assertions with evidence?


quote:

If you don’t enjoy drinking wine, then, just drink water. French people love water as well, and will often have some fancy mineral water, sparkling (de l’eau pétillante) or still (de l’eau plate) ready for a dinner with guests. It’s not customary in France to drink a soda, milk or juices during dinner.


https://www.frenchtoday.com/blog/french-food-wine/french-etiquette-for-drinking/


Glad you went for the obvious one, now want to explain what that has to do with Covid, other than to imply that it's in response to a general perception of American insensitivity to local customs?


You wrote that you would settle for one so that is all that you are going to get.

When are you going to explain this with proofs:

quote:

mind_messing

Pointless, may as well argue with a brick wall.




QED



sPzAbt653 -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 9:40:15 PM)

California closes indoor dining and bars in 19 counties, including LA

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4EcsQcgnNU



sPzAbt653 -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 9:59:44 PM)

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says the state will not go back on reopening even as the number of coronavirus cases keeps climbing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghbiBOp8vws

But I will add that Florida has banned sales of alcohol. So bars are remaining open, but can't sell alcohol. Makes sense [X(]



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/1/2020 10:08:38 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

Florida Governor Ron DeSantis says the state will not go back on reopening even as the number of coronavirus cases keeps climbing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghbiBOp8vws

But I will add that Florida has banned sales of alcohol. So bars are remaining open, but can't sell alcohol. Makes sense [X(]


That sounds like how the ice cream parlors got started.



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 1:41:16 AM)

Mortality continues to decline in the US and in Georgia and in most of the other states. In the US, the 7-day rolling average is at 560, almost exactly 25% of peak levels in late April.

I know it's going to turn, because so many smart people say so. I mean that mostly seriously. (If sarcasm were the real aim, I'd say "all the smart people.") I keep waiting...and waiting...and waiting. But nothing about this critter is very predictable.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CAD6B27EE73040E68CA9718F1BECBF36.jpg[/image]



BBfanboy -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 3:19:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Canoerebel

Mortality continues to decline in the US and in Georgia and in most of the other states. In the US, the 7-day rolling average is at 560, almost exactly 25% of peak levels in late April.

I know it's going to turn, because so many smart people say so. I mean that mostly seriously. (If sarcasm were the real aim, I'd say "all the smart people.") I keep waiting...and waiting...and waiting. But nothing about this critter is very predictable.

[image]local://upfiles/8143/CAD6B27EE73040E68CA9718F1BECBF36.jpg[/image]

Discussion I saw this evening on TV about the mortality rate opined that the young people are the ones currently getting the new cases of the virus but at some point, they fear, it will be spread back into the older populations through work or business/customer contacts. At that point the mortality rate may rise, but the older generations seem to be more willing to go back into lockdown to avoid getting the virus.

We may end up with and all-young-people economy! [:'(]



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 4:06:21 AM)

Yeah, that seems to be a possibility. On the other hand, the cases have been rising in Georgia for a long time without a shift in mortality. I think the key is that its been largely kept out of nursing homes. So, yes, younger people affected but not in such a way that the older folks can't be protected (maybe).

I think there's a chance this will keep moving around, so that any state or country or region will have flair ups, until many of them have roughly similar positives/herd immunity. Mortality might fluctuate pretty widely, based upon whether a jurisdiction was overwhelmed for a time (Italy, NYC, etc.) or had a more modest caseload that didn't tax resources.

I wonder if the virus could be mutating, so that the current outbreaks are less lethal. I've been wondering that awhile and Nomad's post, early today, including a link to a story which refers to that. I don't know if it's credible - I'm not familiar with the source. If it really is possible, I'd like to see a lot more.

I really like the way my state and county has handled things, given the uncertainties and tough balancing needed. We may simply be lucky or they may have been more to it than that. There's complete dissonance between life here and what's being showed on the media. I think most places in rural America are just like here, but that's just a hunch.

All of us have tales to tell about 2020. It's been a ride.



obvert -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 10:36:01 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Sammy5IsAlive


quote:

ORIGINAL: obvert



Here in the UK Imperial also predicted that easing could go very wrong quickly and small areas might have to be closed to contain outbreaks. It seems that's happening already as the city of Leicester has had a lockdown imposed. I hope that opening bars and restaurants on July 4 will not have similar consequences to what happened in many states. The Rt here is meant to be just below 1 in most places, and slightly lower in London, from what I can tell.




On this, Sky are reporting that 36 other boroughs are at risk of needing to re-impose lockdown measures similar to Leicester

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-bradford-and-london-boroughs-among-36-at-risk-areas-that-could-be-just-days-away-from-local-lockdowns-12018594

Saw that yes. Saw Wandsworth is on there. It would suck for us if our borough or the one where our nursery is (Hackney) had to close down again. It's felt pretty good and not too rowdy around where I've been, so fingers crossed.



sPzAbt653 -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 10:37:58 AM)

COVID-19 patients experience neurological symptoms

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-patients-experience-neurological-symptoms

Confusion, impaired consciousness, uncoordinated muscle movements, altered mental state.



RangerJoe -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 10:54:14 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

COVID-19 patients experience neurological symptoms

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-patients-experience-neurological-symptoms

Confusion, impaired consciousness, uncoordinated muscle movements, altered mental state.


There may be a treatment for that:

https://www.genengnews.com/news/reversing-parkinsons-in-mice-achieved-by-replacing-lost-neurons/



JohnDillworth -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 4:18:28 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: sPzAbt653

COVID-19 patients experience neurological symptoms

https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-patients-experience-neurological-symptoms

Confusion, impaired consciousness, uncoordinated muscle movements, altered mental state.

One of my coworkers had Covid and was out 6 weeks. His worst symptom was a loss of balance. He could barely stand with support and could not walk at all. I had a long, technical conversation the week before he came back to work. A week later he had no recollection of the conversation or speaking to me at all. He seemed fine on the phone. He is close to 100% now and regaining some of he weight he lost (he also lost his sense of taste and smell, supposedly Covid destroys stem cells and it takes a long time to fully grow back). I mention this because It seemed incongruousness with the other cases we had at work. This thing is so strange and we are still finding things out about it.



Nomad -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 8:22:09 PM)

Here is an article that says that many ( most?) people who had covid-19 and lost their sense of smell and or taste are getting it back.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamaotolaryngology/fullarticle/2767781?guestAccessKey=2e0cf7c3-ca46-47d9-902b-1f97e228e6be&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=070220



BBfanboy -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 9:06:50 PM)

On the BBC news this morning they interviewed a gene scientist at "23 and Me", the company that does DNA analysis - mostly for ancestry but also for medical vulnerabilities. They ask their 12.5 million customers if they would be willing to participate in gene research in the future and 80% said yes. So they started a study of the COVID19 virus and asked their entire pool of willing customers to describe their experience with COVID, if any. They got replies back from a huge number of them and they analyzed their info on cases, symptoms, hospitalization, etc.

They ran that info against the genetic info from the same customers and determined that having Type O blood correlates with a 20% lower severity of illness (mostly based on hospital and ICU cases). The study was done in California - should be something in the news there.

I have type O blood. I put the resistance down to cantankerousness keeping people and the virus at bay ...[:)]



Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/2/2020 9:19:26 PM)

In Florida, the number of new cases is up 10x since June 1 (from about 700/day to about 7,000)….but mortality is holding steady at about 38/day (that's down from the peak of about 50 in early May).

Saw and heard a few more reports today addressing this oddity, with most tying it to the fact that most new case are younger than the first wave in March/April. Didn't hear any speculation that the virus may be mutating to a weaker form, but I'll continue scanning reports.





Canoerebel -> RE: OT: Coronavirus 2, the No Politics Version (7/3/2020 1:52:14 AM)

Nationally, mortality remained level (7-day rolling average). My state was down again. As for my community, no new mortalities since around May 26; however, hospitalizations have crept up from 7 to 15 over the past couple of weeks.

It's interesting to follow the efforts of the professional and major college sports trying to make things work. Right now, they seem to be vigorously swimming against a strong tide.



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