Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically? (Full Version)

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Mathieas -> Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically? (6/22/2020 1:12:43 AM)

It seems that I can sit there and add units in different orders and get completely different ratios. I find myself adding and removing hunting for the largest ratio I can find. I have tried looking at the numbers that go into the math but why does the order I add them make any difference? Is this a bug? I feel very uneducated about this system, would anybody be willing to shed some light?



Smidlee -> RE: Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically? (6/22/2020 1:30:47 AM)

I think the ratio numbers are suppose to be a guess-estimate.



Soar_Slitherine -> RE: Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically? (6/22/2020 2:06:49 AM)

The game simulates a fresh round of combat to determine the odds every time the configuration changes. Because combat has a random element, the resulting estimate varies as well.



Jdane -> RE: Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically? (6/22/2020 12:02:29 PM)

There's more detail in a recent discussion about much the same topic (there), in case you would find that interesting.



Pi2repsilon -> RE: Why does the order I add units to combat change the ratio so drastically? (6/22/2020 12:08:12 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Soar_Slitherine

The game simulates a fresh round of combat to determine the odds every time the configuration changes. Because combat has a random element, the resulting estimate varies as well.

Which is why the estimate of odds is mostly useless for decision-making purposes, unless it is grossly one-sided.

From an in-universe perspective, it makes no sense at all that:

1) an estimate often indicates worse odds when adding more soldiers
2) you often get a different estimate if you ask for an estimate twice in a row with exactly the same troops involved





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