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Alfred -> RE: Empire of the Sun (11/26/2020 9:28:37 AM)
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quote:
ORIGINAL: DesertWolf101
Operation Siberian Winter Force Allocation
Before I start drilling into the details of the invasion plan. I first have to figure out how many forces I expect to have at hand to poke the bear with. Assuming a rosy scenario where my objectives in China are fulfilled, I expect to have 43 Japanese Infantry Divisions and 2 Tank Divisions for the operation. This is not counting allied type units (Chinese and Manchurian for instance) that will largely be on garrison duty anyways. This would be for early September 1942 when I expect to be ready for the invasion.
I could probably bring in a couple of more divisions if I really had to, but I prefer to keep enough forces (about 10 divisions) to ward off the other Allied force along with naval and air power. Of course, I may very well have to pull back a number of divisions from the Russian front over time as the Allies get stronger, but I am hoping a powerful initial concentration against the Soviets would allow me to make the gains I want to make early on.
Thoughts?
A Field Force of 43 Inf and 2 Tank divisions might sound like a lot, but then the Soviets are not short of units themselves.
The Soviets start off with:
31 Inf Divs
5 Inf Bdes
18 Inf Rgts
That amounts to approximately 38 Inf Divisions. Not all available as a field army as about 10-15% of it is spread out in the various widely dispersed bases and cannot be realistically assembled into a mobile field force.
By 1 September 1942, 4 of the at start inf Divs and 1 inf Rgt will have been withdrawn (NB an early arriving div reinforcement plus a reconstituted div are also withdrawn). However by that date their loss is, at least in quantity terms, more than made up by the arrival of 2 Inf divs, 20 Inf Bdes and 1 Inf Rgt.
Hence a 1 Set 42 Japanese attack will meet some:
29 Inf Divs
40 Inf Bdes/Rgts = approximately 13 Divisions.
Even at only about 85%, that still leaves about 35 Inf div equivalents to meet your 43 Divs.
However, the news becomes very depressing when we factor in the Soviet Tank units.
The Soviets start off with:
2 Tank Divs
19 Tank Bdes/Rgts.
They have no tank withdrawals by September 1942. By that date they receive as reinforcements a further 2 Tank divs and 21 Tank Bdes/Rgts. (see edited correction below)
So to meet your 2 Tank Divs, the Soviets will be able to field 4 Tanks Divs plus 40 Tank Bdes/Rgts (which amount to the equivalent of 13 Tank Divs). (see edited correction below)
Granted you will choose where the schwerpunkt goes and not all of the approximately 85% of Soviet potential can be assembled at a common point, so you can achieve temporarily superiority in numbers. But a 3:1 advantage once the Soviets can move their forces into position. In particular their quick moving tank units.
Your intended march is across the Gobi desert. In part because it allows you to avoid direct conflict with the Bear until you reach deep into his rear. Key to this strategy is that your local attacks elsewhere along the Amur plus the secondary thrust on the Borzay/Chita axis will tie down the Bear and discourage maneuver from him. But what if he sees through this. He will notice your flanks and rear are weakly held. With a total force of approximately 35 Inf Divs equivalents and 17 Tank Divs equivalents, STAVKA should be able to free up a strategic reserve of 5-8 Inf Divs (equivalents) and 10 Tank Div (equivalents) to counter attack your schwerpunkt's flanks and base. (see edited correction below)
There is a very important point to the above and that is the relative firepower superiority of the soviet units over the IJA. Soviet devices, infantry and artillery, not to overlook AFVs, can easily destroy Japanese tanks and infantry squads. Only the Type 1 tank stands a chance against the embedded smaller calibre Soviet artillery of the Soviet infantry divisions but it too will be easily stopped by the independent soviet artillery units, of which there are many, and the heavier calibre devices of soviet tank units.
Another reason why STAVKA can assemble that strategic reserve is the 14 static Soviet Frontier Fortresses which have not been included in the above estimates. They are strong enough to hold against the diversionary attacks which apparently is all you will have to throw at them. Only the two in front of Borzay are likely to be easily overwhelmed. The Soviet Fortresses provide a shield behind which STAVKA can assemble and release the strategic reserve in one or several counter attack axes.
Besides the superior firepower of the Bear, don't overlook their experience levels. Only category 1 IJA LCUs (that is having an experience level of 80+%) will have clear superiority here. So whilst the Soviets will probably have lower experience levels on a one for basis, that delta will not be enough to nullify fully their far superior firepower. Japan will need the combination of a slight edge in experience and total control of the air to bring the Soviet firepower delta advantage back towards equality.
The force you intend on using is going to rely upon strategically out thinking STAVKA.
Alfred
Edit: Oops, I transfered from my notes the wrong number of tank bdes reinforcements. Instead of the correct number being 6, I retyped the infantry reinforcements.
Still means that STAVKA can create a strategic reserve the equivalent of:
5-8 inf divisions and 5 tank divisions
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