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Ambassador -> RE: Empire of the Sun (2/25/2021 8:49:51 PM)
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The opportunity cost of disbanding some units in Vladivostok is not that great IMO.
Although I agree that the best strategy would be IMVHO (and I have played the Soviets, it’s not that clear-cut) to move on the offensive, if you have enough supply, if only to force the IJ opponent to stall his offensive in the north, one can’t forget either that the campaign happens after one year of play. Yenki and Rashin might have very high fort levels too, not Vladivostok-high, but 5/6 are clearly possible in that timeframe. Both bases are also in good defensible terrain, and provided there are enough troops, they could hold a very long time. DW is clearly not ready to commit to a siege of Vlad right now, Andy’s move a couple days ago may have been an attempt to elicit such a response, rather than a full offensive. It takes a lot of supplies to feed an army to go conquer bases in southern Manchuria or Korea, and dividing the troops of the Vlad pocket may risk their encirclement while besieging either base.
From Andy’s POV, he can’t know your fort levels, so he may not be certain to get some quick victories - but will get heavy losses and expend supply. He also can expect more reinforcements, given your 25% PP rule : since the start of the invasion, DW, I’d guess you now have enough PP to buy at least one more division from China, which means the possibility to move three other restricted divisions. Four divisions may cut his advance and trap his armies outside the pocket, while busy assaulting Yenki or Rashin, and he will then have lost devices, supplies, and PP (although by this point, I’d say PP are not that important anymore).
Now, if supply was not as plentiful as it might be, say around 300-400k, an offensive would drain a lot of it. Add the loss of supplies, the loss of troops on an adventurous advance, the consecutive weakening of Vlad’s defenses (thereby decreasing the expected losses to the IJA during the future siege), and you may have a situation where sortying the defenders may be detrimental. Then, I can understand Andy’s move up to the frontier, then retreating. This would be a feint, meant to try and entice DW to start the offensive operations in the south.
But... it didn’t work. From the above premise, supplies would quickly dwindle, and the « siege & let wither » strategy may bear its fruits way faster than might otherwise be expected.
So, Andy’s choices in the south are rational, if one considers the supplies are short. The Soviet forces starting around Vladivostok, including the couple of bases in the neighborhood, have a total supply requirement of around 30-35k. Maybe more if he concentrated more units, possibly as much as 45-50k with troops from Khabarovsk (I don’t remember where they went). That is, per month, without any combat. The operation has started over two months (in-game) ago, so at least 100.000 supplies have been used. Probably more, if you have bombarded enough. If less (he did concede the air war after all), it not much less.
It takes time to build a good stockpile in Vlad, but you need it in order to have a resilient defense. If one is satisfied with the supply present at start, it’ll be over in six months. If the Soviet amass one million supply in Vladivostok, the « siege & let wither » strategy will fail. But less than that, and an IJ which can afford to keep 3000-4000 AV around there to prevent any offensive thoughts, or is not under the pressure of any particular time-table, then the outcome is the opposite. Given the first player’s bad performance, I wouldn’t count on him having started stockpiling supplies in Vladivostok. This would also mean more supplies in the north, to feed operations there and rebuild units.
EDIT : missed a sentence.
So, units which are disbanded now in Vladivostok, could not have enough supplies to be actually used offensively, and are clearly of no use as the siege isn’t starting. Therefore, no opportunity cost to disband them.
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