'40 DOW Russia (Full Version)

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clausewitzclausewitz -> '40 DOW Russia (7/23/2020 4:55:45 PM)

I followed the AAR by HamburgerMeat vs Cpuncher and the following comments by several experienced players. I questioned whether the strategy could truly be that overwhelming. I asked HamburgerMeat to start a game against me knowing he would DOW Russia in '40. I used all British forces without concern for Sea Lion or Med. Also knowing that Russians most likely could not get more than a couple tech advances I built engineer and starting building forts at key road junctions near Moscow and Rostov. Even with an army in forts and HQ support an armor destroyed in one turn. The game seriously needs revision either to stop "40 DOW or bring US in almost immediately because in my humble opinion this '40 strategy cannot be stopped!



pjg100 -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/23/2020 6:48:07 PM)

Did US mob jump when GE DOWed USSR, and if so by how much?



clausewitzclausewitz -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/23/2020 7:07:55 PM)

Scripts indicate 20-25%. After DOW Denmark, Norway, Lux, Belgium, Neth, fall of France and Dow Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia the US was at 68%. Thus help was not coming in time to save Russia. Further Russia's first four expenditures were chit Industry, Infantry and Armor followed by purchase of Engineer. By the time Germany was wiping away Russian lines Russia only had two hits for Armor LV1 and Industry.



pjg100 -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/23/2020 8:17:06 PM)

I think that Hamburger's idea of a NM hit for GE (and possibly Italy) might be a useful counterweight. Might also increase the effects of the Russian winter somewhat, to reflect a relatively lower level of preparedness for the harsh winter conditions in 1940 v. 1941.

Another possibility would be to advance the entry date of the free Russian reinforcements that typically show up in late 1941.

A 20-25% increase in US mob in late 1940 should have a material impact on JA's ability to withstand the US onslaught in 1943. Wonder what would happen were you to play this out?



clausewitzclausewitz -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/23/2020 9:08:57 PM)

I know Hamburger has play tested ideas related to '40 DOW and I believe he would be the best source for effective counter balances. Regarding Japan, Germany would clearly defeat Russia and could give half of country to Japan significantly raising their MPPs and reducing one possible area of Japanese defense.



HamburgerMeat -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/23/2020 10:02:16 PM)

If the Western Allies decide to go Japan first, then I would probably have Germany take all of the USSR, so that German troops could be operated over to Siberia immediately and help hold Japan/Korea. Assuming the Japanese player isn't caught with their pants down, I doubt that the Western Allies can knock Japan out of the war before the Axis powers knock the USSR out.

As for counterbalances, I think a big morale loss would help, but it would need to be very substantial if that is the only change



Marcinos1985 -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/24/2020 1:14:19 PM)

quote:

Even with an army in forts and HQ support an armor destroyed in one turn.

Wow, that hurts. Even if Panzer was level 1 and Army 0, it shouldn't be such a knockout (IRL that is).
Question: is discrepancy between lvl 1 and zero is such a big matter? Because if invasion comes in 1941, there is a tech difference (lvl 2 vs lvl 1 in infantry weapons), but I rarely see such a slaughter. Well entrenched armies usually can hold for 2-3 turns evem, unless GER concentrates all bombers/arta on that hex.



clausewitzclausewitz -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/24/2020 4:35:13 PM)

I agree with question regarding LV1 vs LV0 and LV2 VS LV1. I do not have the technical knowledge to explain. Perhaps hamburger or game creator will comment. It may have something to do with internal game mechanics of '40 VS '41.As I noted in my post I was very skeptical of '40 DOW which is why I requested game with Hamburger. When you are on receiving end you truly see power!!!!



Jackmck -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/25/2020 12:17:50 PM)

I echo the imbalance for an Axis '40 DOW on Russia. Have tried this now several times as Axis with consistent victory although I am not as skilled an axis player as HamburgerMeat or Cpuncher



Cpuncher -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/26/2020 3:39:17 PM)

I think the best way would be to give Germany a 25% ish NM penalty, or a bigger one if it can be gradually recovered (to simulate the political situation at the time), maybe even a MPP penalty (to simulate the logistical situation). The US mobilization is a bad remedy. It can be easily avoided as it is now, and like many said here, may still not prevent USSR from being overrun.
On the Allied side, there are things you can do to help. Hold every position of the Maginot line and all the southern NM cities in France even after Paris falls. Use French navy to make the final kill of 1 or 2 Axis ships if given the chance. This I believe, will make France not surrender after the fall of Paris, and hold out until August ish. Ship every single UK unit you can find on the map (including the HQ in Egypt), plus some minor's to help defend France. After the fall of Paris, have them dug in in the western ports of France (only ship out your 2 HQs), keep them reinforced until they are killed (Don't bother to ship them out. They all have high than 5 supply and can be easily rebuilt). This way, you can tie down a significant amount of German units for quite many turns, and possibly until very late 40.
Since early Russia is a far better choice for Germany than Sealion, I would rather give Axis the chance to Sealion than an easy early Russia, as long as you can maintain naval control of the channel.



HamburgerMeat -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/27/2020 6:04:58 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Cpuncher

I think the best way would be to give Germany a 25% ish NM penalty, or a bigger one if it can be gradually recovered (to simulate the political situation at the time), maybe even a MPP penalty (to simulate the logistical situation). The US mobilization is a bad remedy. It can be easily avoided as it is now, and like many said here, may still not prevent USSR from being overrun.
On the Allied side, there are things you can do to help. Hold every position of the Maginot line and all the southern NM cities in France even after Paris falls. Use French navy to make the final kill of 1 or 2 Axis ships if given the chance. This I believe, will make France not surrender after the fall of Paris, and hold out until August ish. Ship every single UK unit you can find on the map (including the HQ in Egypt), plus some minor's to help defend France. After the fall of Paris, have them dug in in the western ports of France (only ship out your 2 HQs), keep them reinforced until they are killed (Don't bother to ship them out. They all have high than 5 supply and can be easily rebuilt). This way, you can tie down a significant amount of German units for quite many turns, and possibly until very late 40.
Since early Russia is a far better choice for Germany than Sealion, I would rather give Axis the chance to Sealion than an easy early Russia, as long as you can maintain naval control of the channel.


Even if this "all-in" France method works (I don't think it does enough, and the level 0 UK infantry will not last long without HQ bonuses), the Allied player is forced to assume that Axis is going to do a 1940 USSR invasion. However, if Axis is going for a regular invasion, Mediterranean focus, or sealion, the outcome is always favorable to Axis. Without HQs providing supply or connection to a place that can provide 6 supply, the UK units will NOT be offered at a discount, and all fronts against the UK will be made wide open. Furthermore, Axis aircraft can bomb the ports and prevent them from escaping at the last moment.

Basically, the Allied has to assume the Axis will attempt a 1940 USSR invasion, and even if the Axis player was intending to do a 1940 USSR invasion, he can now pivot and take advantage of an extremely weak UK. It's a win-win for Axis: if the Allies don't "all-in" in France, they win via 1940 USSR invasion. If the Allies do "all-in," Axis forces can probably still launch a successful 1940 USSR invasion OR destroy the free UK units along the ports and pivot to a new strategy versus an extremely weakened UK.



pjg100 -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/28/2020 8:31:52 PM)

Call me a masochist, but I would be willing to take one of you guys on as Allies against your Axis, to test the hypothesis that this strategy is a sure thing for the Axis. Let me know if you're interested.



Cpuncher -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/28/2020 11:55:08 PM)

Hm...Hamburger you may need to take another look at how you come to the conclusion of UK units no discount...they will be supplied by the port which will be 5 minimum (5, not 6, is needed for discount), which will have an AA upgraded DD or TB parked. Germany will need a strat Bomber (don't know if any Axis player will have 1 at this stage), otherwise pretty much the entire Bomber fleet (including the Maritime bomber Germany should have built), to be able to bomb the boat out before reducing the port itself, and the cost to your bombers will make any UK player happy.



HamburgerMeat -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/29/2020 12:43:36 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Cpuncher

Hm...Hamburger you may need to take another look at how you come to the conclusion of UK units no discount...they will be supplied by the port which will be 5 minimum (5, not 6, is needed for discount), which will have an AA upgraded DD or TB parked. Germany will need a strat Bomber (don't know if any Axis player will have 1 at this stage), otherwise pretty much the entire Bomber fleet (including the Maritime bomber Germany should have built), to be able to bomb the boat out before reducing the port itself, and the cost to your bombers will make any UK player happy.



EDIT: Nevermind, you are right, it is only 5 supply needed to rebuild at a discount. Not sure why I thought 6 was needed. Was there a change sometime in the past few years that I wasn't aware of, or was it always this way?

Still, adjacent land units can attack the ships in port, often with devastating results. And you don't need to leave that many units to destroy the British stragglers.



And I would be willing to play a game pjg100



pjg100 -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/29/2020 1:52:42 AM)

Sounds good, looking forward to it -- I'll pm you the pw in about an hour.



Cpuncher -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/29/2020 2:56:05 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: HamburgerMeat

Still, adjacent land units can attack the ships in port, often with devastating results. And you don't need to leave that many units to destroy the British stragglers.



That's right. So you have to pick the right port, and know which ones (Brest and Cherbourg) are to hold to death, which ones (Bordeaux etc) are just for pissing Germany off then leave. You may also be surprised by these "Stragglers", even though they have wep 0 and low morale...everything I post here all happened in real game and tested out in hot seat, so you shouldn't say it doesn't work so easily.

It's important that the allied player know exactly when France will surrender. So for everyone's information, France will surrender when her NM drops below 225 (or 0?). Paris is 5000x2, Lyon and Marseilles are 2500 each. So plan accordingly.

It's not a counter to early Russia invasion, just to reduce it's effectiveness. It's trying to improve a 5% to 30%. If I was to play myself, the Allied me will be happy to see the Axis me pivot away from early Russia, for the current version of the game.



clausewitzclausewitz -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/29/2020 1:04:01 PM)

Gentlemen I realize there was an early AAR on this topic but it may be beneficial given knowledge of what is coming that you consider an AAR.



Cpuncher -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/30/2020 5:14:32 PM)

All things French NM: Poland surrender -2250, German Blitz (unit on Belgium-France border) -5000, Near Paris -1500. 5 UK units within 5 Hexes of Paris before it falls +250 per allied turn (when German units reach certain position). Success of the Finnish Expedition +500. Fall of Paris -5000x2 (supposedly the 2nd 5000 NM penalty only applies when there is no UK unit within 3 hexes of Paris, but there is an error in the script, and it is firing unless you know the trick. It's getting fixed in the next patch). Fall of Lyon and Marseilles are -2500 each.

There are messages saying French troops panic with the Fall of Belgium, and the Maginot line being outflanked, but I can't find the scripts for these, and they don't seem to actually cause any NM loss.

Putting all the numbers together, assuming Germany DOW both Belgium and Netherlands, and destroyed their units (each cost around 600 NM penalty to France), France will have about 3500 NM to spend on her unit casualty, to avoid surrendering after the fall of Paris. This should be quite doable, if you don't sacrifice French Navy.

Here is contrary to the practice of many players: Don't sacrifice French Navy. The NM penalty for navy strength loss (not referring to the NM bonus for your enemy when a navy unit is killed) is doubled. For example: if you lose 5 strength of a CA, that's (250/10)x5x2= 250, likewise losing 5 strength of a BB is 350 NM penalty. Since it's unlikely you will lose 3500 NM due to land unit loss for some time, limiting French naval loss will be the key to prevent a quick French surrender, and force Germany to march on to take Lyon. Germany really need the French plunder for the Russian invasion, delaying it will have a huge value to the Allies.

If you are lucky to use French Navy to kill a couple Axis, and succeed in the Finnish expedition, it may even be possible to force Axis to have to take Marseilles too (I don't think Italy can do it alone if it's defended by a full strength corp). That should really piss Germany off.






HamburgerMeat -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/31/2020 1:19:57 AM)

I would be down for an AAR. However, I will need to clear some games first, as playing against Cpuncher will require a lot of attention.



Cpuncher -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/31/2020 1:43:08 PM)

I think clausewitz was referring to an AAR for your game against pjg100.



clausewitzclausewitz -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/31/2020 2:07:05 PM)

Yes Cpuncher is correct. Hamburger VS pig100.



HamburgerMeat -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/31/2020 2:23:38 PM)

I'm fine with that if pjg100 is



pjg100 -> RE: '40 DOW Russia (7/31/2020 2:49:04 PM)

I'm fine with it but I don't have the time to post screencaps, write it up, etc. If you want to take that on Hamburger that would be great, but I know we're all busy with real life so don't feel obligated.



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