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rkr1958 -> RE: By the Numbers: Another Solo Global War AAR (8/18/2020 5:43:05 PM)
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Turn 4. Mar/Apr 1940. The Western Front. Initiation of Case Yellow.
Initiative.
1. The allies win the initiative and elect to move second.
2. The axis move first and see rain on the Western Front (i.e., north temperate).
Case Yellow. Invasion of Holland. Competitive.
1. By waiting (i.e., sitzkrieg) until March, the Wehrmacht have their II para corps that can ensure that they capture Rotterdam on the surprise impulse and locked any landings/intervention by the Brits.
2. Prior to the arrival of the II para's the only way to lock the Brits out of Rotterdam was through a generally risky amphibious assault through the North Sea. Only a sure thing if the Western Allies neglected to leave or get in place a deterrent naval force in the North Sea.
3. By waiting the capture of both Rotterdam and Amsterdam on the surprise impulse looks to be a sure thing. But, not necessarily so.
4. If the CW sets up the NED I inf corps on the RP instead of Amsterdam then that corps zocs will block land combat access to both Amsterdam and Rotterdam except through airborne drop and amphibious landing.
5. Well, that is, provided that the I inf corps isn't overrun during the movement phase which is a big if.
6. To achieve an overrun, Germany must first flip the corps via ground strike unless they want to waste an O-chit which they don't.
7. With the rain, and tactical factors halved, German with 3 air missions (i.e., planes) can get a ground strike with an 85% chance of flipping the corps.
8. Assuming a land, the 4th air mission needs to be saved for the paradrop if the the ground strike fails. But if it fails, Germany can only get either Rotterdam or Amsterdam on the surprise impulse.
9. That is, unless Germany takes a combine and risks the amphibious invasion.
10. Now, from the allied perspective does the CW player setup on the RP or not. If they do then there's only a 15% chance that the Belgium inf corps won't be overrun. This means there an 85% chance that it will and that Germany can save their 4th air mission and, more importantly, the paradrop for a rainy day (no pun intended).
11. In end, the CW player decided to place the inf corps on the RP and force the German player either to accept the 15% risk that the Brits will be able to deploy 3 ground units either to Rotterdam or Amsterdam depending on where Germany make her airborne drop or take a combine and risk an amphibious landing through the North Sea.
12. The German player decided on a land and take the 85% chance of getting an easy conquest of Belgium that locked the Brits out on the surprise impulse and being able to save their airborne drop for later in the turn if needed.
[image]local://upfiles/31901/757A52147CD84267A9F241133A21EAA6.jpg[/image]
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