RE: Turn 16: the looming crisis (Full Version)

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chaos45 -> RE: Turn 16: the looming crisis (11/12/2020 9:09:27 PM)

ya basically as you rebuild the soviet army you will run out of both manpower and armaments unless you selectively starve units of replacements. Depending on how well the German players does will take until Late 1942+ before you might get to a surplus.



CapAndGown -> RE: Turn 16: the looming crisis (11/12/2020 10:11:17 PM)

Need a clarification on disbanding.

1) Do disbanded divisions/brigades return as reinforcements?

2) Starting in November, if I disband a brigade, does it cost 3 AP or 1 AP, or 3AP+1AP. Section 18.1.3 is not clear.



chaos45 -> RE: Turn 16: the looming crisis (11/13/2020 1:39:30 AM)

instead of disbanding them, just put them to minimum ToE level and use them to hold forts...as they will slowly build some esp if close to a city and put in an Army/HQ...as well having these shell BDEs and divisions around can allow to hold rear forts from degrading when you go into a winter offensive.



redrum68 -> RE: Turn 16: the looming crisis (11/13/2020 2:07:47 AM)

To my knowledge, disbanding always takes 1 AP. But I do tend to agree with chaos45, that usually for onmap units its better to just set their TOE to 20% and let them build/hold forts.



CapAndGown -> Turn 17: yuck (11/19/2020 8:48:59 PM)

The Germans pulled off a large encirclement around Rzhev. As I indicated earlier, I was worried about this salient. It appears the Germans did some HQ buildups in order to pull this off, since it required multiple zoc-to-zoc moves to achieve. If next turn were not mud, we would be in even worse shape next turn, with little to stop the rampaging Germans. As it is, I threw what I had in the path of the panzers and counted on the rasputitza to accomplish what my troops cannot.

I did gain two more guard divisions this turn, and a number of artillery regiments are now guards units. I expect more guards divisions next turn, including 1 cavalry division. Meanwhile, 9th Army (Southern Front, Rokossovsky) has 26 victories, and 6th Army (Soutwest Front, Zhadov) has 22. Still a ways to go, but I am hoping to turn these 2 into guards armies this winter.



[image]local://upfiles/2633/5101E14D15AD4A55B47B618595938776.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 17: Kursk (11/19/2020 8:51:55 PM)

West of Kursk we continue to take pot shots at weak axis units. The cavalry division should achieve guard status next turn.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/E91A0795A2E04EF7A9B417D81AB9C790.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 17: Kharkov (11/19/2020 9:12:33 PM)

A view of the Kharkov salient.

I am going to wait on moving the 15 armament factories in Kharkov at least until November. I need to keep the armaments churning out. I am also waiting on moving the 15 armaments factories at Rostov. Instead, this turn I moved the 4 heavy industry at Rostov. I also moved the 42 T-34 factories at Stalingrad. Those factories are eventually going to get moved anyway, and I felt it was better to do it before they had grown to full capacity. Also, by moving them now, I reduce the amount of supplies consumed by production. To that end, I also moved all my U-2VS factories: 1 point from each factory was moved, leaving the remaining factories 95% damaged. It will take them a good long while to start producing again and eating up my supply. Since I had left over rail capacity and because it did not cost that much, I also moved the BA-64, T-70, and OT-34 factories out of Gorky. Those vehicles do not begin production until 1942, so they should be totally repaired by the time they come on line. Finally, I increased my reserve rail capacity from 5 to 7%. With factory evacuation less pressing an issue, it is time to start moving troops into position, both for a more solid defense, and in preparation for the winter offensive. The MLR west of Kursk is especially weak and the Germans may try an offensive here in November. Already, one panzer corps is heading west from Stalino and is now about 3/4 of the way to Dnepropetrovsk (sorry I cropped that out of the screen shot).


[image]local://upfiles/2633/3052C4B962AA402FB8F1FF3A32A0DD38.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 17: the Donbass (11/19/2020 9:21:04 PM)

I had thought my troops holding the Stalino-Gorlovka complex might hold out for a few turns, perhaps even through the mud. The Germans, on the other hand, decided to go all in on taking those cities before the mud set in. Just as well; I will get those troops back that much sooner.



[image]local://upfiles/2633/FE749BC9B533477AAF7340359E2F523E.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 17: partisans (11/19/2020 10:05:03 PM)

I failed to mention this above, but partisans hit both the Kiev and Smolensk rail lines this turn, stopping rail conversion along those lines. Overall, my partisans have done a wonderful job of slowing down rail conversion.



CapAndGown -> Turn 17: stats (11/19/2020 11:55:17 PM)

As I did with my German game, here are the stats at the end of the campaigning season. (For the German side these stats were taken at the beginning of turn 18. Here they are for the end of turn 17.)


[image]local://upfiles/2633/4A947661C8584C3F979D792F6D2B63D2.jpg[/image]



chaos45 -> RE: Turn 17: stats (11/20/2020 12:51:33 AM)

With 4.5M men in the red army you are doing fine going into mud.



CapAndGown -> Turn 20 (11/24/2020 5:21:04 PM)

Despite the mud, the Germans have worked aggressively reduce the Rzhev pocket. According to my opponent, he is interested in clearing the area so he can work on setting up his defenses. Meanwhile I am very worried about the north side of the salient. I don't want to give up this territory, but I don't want another big encirclement when the ground hardens again in November.

The Moscow heavy industry factories were evacuated this turn, leaving only the 72 Mig factories. The Gorky T-34 line was also moved to the Urals last turn, meaning all my T-34s are now being produced in the Urals. All of my IL-2 production has been moved to the Urals as well. What's left to go? Next turn the 15 armament factories at Rostov will be evacuated. I am waiting to see what the Germans do around Kharkov before moving the 15 armament factories there. It would be good to keep those factories producing at full capacity for now.



[image]local://upfiles/2633/A71C5FA3024046A2A94B29821B84FD64.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 21: 2319! 2319! (11/27/2020 9:04:45 PM)

We are about to be hit by one massive panzer offensive as soon as the snow starts! Looking at the German concentration of forces just takes one's breath away. Unfortunately, actually running away is not an option. I have to deal with the limitation of movement during mud, while the panzers will be moving during snow. There is simply no way to outrun them. The best I could think to do was pull back my best units on the shoulders of the incoming thrust, while leaving the dross behind to act as a speed bump in the hopes the my good units do not get caught up in a large encirclement.

On the bright side, Moscow looks secure for 1941.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/39C59F233FA746749559A07CCA2E80FD.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 21: Kharkov salient (11/27/2020 9:21:28 PM)

The situation around Kharkov looks to be as good as things get in 1941. Although there are a lot of panzers just south of the salient, I can't see how they can make it to Kharkov in one turn. As such I left the armaments factories at Kharkov and Rostov in place rather than move them. The last thing I need is for any reduction in armaments output right now. If the situation remains favorable through November, I will wait until January to move them when the armaments' multiplier increase and the rest of my factories have had 6-7 more turns to repair.

In a way, my poor defense of Leningrad has worked in my favor. By losing so many railyards early on I was prevented from evacuating my factories as fast as I might otherwise have done, thus leaving the big armament factories at Kharkov and Rostov in place rather than suffering through a premature evacuation. Overall, should I play the game again I would be more disciplined in evacuating entire factories in one go and deliberately pacing out their evacuations.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/DFA1A95D36B948FA81F736C943D9EF8C.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 22: Valdai hills (12/1/2020 2:57:19 PM)

The huge concentration of Panzers south of the Valdai hills did not accomplish as much as I thought they might. They did pocket 3 rifle divisions and push up towards lake Seliger and there are still a couple of panzer corps uncommitted, but the situation is not quite as dire as it was. More pockets are still likely, but we should be able to keep them out of the Valdai hills, while Torzhok and Kalinin look secure.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/162C7B03C992424E9F0AA4D51D993F36.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 22: Bryansk (12/1/2020 3:02:52 PM)

Last turn I thought Bryansk might come under attack, but it looks like the divisions we spotted were merely passing by on their way to shore up the southern flank of AGC.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/94D7BF54B00548BDAD80842262230B57.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 22: Kursk (12/1/2020 3:15:53 PM)

West of Kursk the hardening of the ground has given us an opportunity to continue our attacks on axis minor allies. I really hope the cavalry division gets guards status next turn. Meanwhile, 6th Army has now racked up 26 victories. A ways to go yet, but its a good start. And to think, 6th Army has been destroyed many times over (the troops, not the HQ) since the debacle on the border back in June. Fresh leadership (GM Zhadov, 14 victories, 1 defeat) has given the personnel of the Army new hope.




[image]local://upfiles/2633/22BF387D7FF1477F9C880F3A1D63B421.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 22: Kharkov (12/1/2020 3:25:36 PM)

The Germans formed a substantial pocket southwest of Kharkov. I really want to hold that city, so maximum effort was thrown into putting up a gauntlet in front of it. I decided to abandon Poltava in order to shorten the front and achieve greater unit density to defend the more valuable Kharkov. Although I still can't see the Germans making it to the city in one turn, I went ahead and evacuated the armaments factories there rather than take the risk of losing them.

Meanwhile, my partisans hit a critical rail junction supplying the axis forces around Stalino.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/F25260F2F10E460C86E8C32ED28077C2.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 23: Rzhev (12/5/2020 12:28:24 AM)

The Panzers north of Rzhev headed west this turn, encircling another 3 divisions. 3 armies that had reported to rear area military district were reassigned to the newly arrived Volkhov Front.

After looking at lots of combat reports of the last two turns, I went through every Army to adjust their allocation of support units. Each army now has: 2 RGVK artillery regiments, 2 sapper battalions, 1 BM howitzer regiment (optional), 1 AA regiment or 2 AA battalions, and 1 motorcycle regiment (optional). The motorcycle regiments are most likely going to get reassigned to cavalry corps when those are formed.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/BB79020A76B148A09609438358ED6FDD.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 23: Kursk (12/5/2020 12:34:24 AM)

Three new guards rifle divisions and my first guards cavalry division were formed this turn based off the attacks we have been making west of Kursk. I should have at least two additional guards artillery regiments, but we have reached the maximum in that category for 1941.

German infantry divisions are heading into the area to stiffen the defense here. Three of my rifle divisions got caught on the wrong side of the Seym river due to a miscalculation on my part about how many movement points they would have remaining after making and attack on a Hungarian brigade.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/B2694D8071574F55B45946B785FAC8EF.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 23: Kharkov (12/5/2020 12:38:11 AM)

South of Kharkov, the Germans pulled back to their initial launch line rather than continue the offensive. Two out of our three counter attacks in this region were unsuccessful, though even those did reduce German fortifications.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/50C1C46E7E4042BEB10DE83C42C59973.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 4:55:20 AM)

November 27, 1941

Our attacks last turn led to six more rifle divisions being granted guards status. We now have 16 guard rifle divisions and one guard cavalry division. One of the rifle divisions, however, was destroyed the turn after it was upgraded. It just returned this turn and will take some time to be useable.

As the weather turns colder and colder, the likelihood of meaningful German counter attacks becomes less likely. As such, Stavka orders our forces forward, out of their fortifications and into attacks against the invaders. In total, 20 attacks were launched, only one of which failed.

At this point we are faced with a juggling act of keeping our existing fortifications from decaying while sending forces forward to attack the enemy. Some fortifications will have to be abandoned, but we intend to keep a solid line of defenses, 2 hexes deep manned using brigade sized units. For instance, the tank brigades from my "tank parade" that have reached 50 morale and 40+ experience are being sent forward from their training grounds to take over the fortifications from units moving to the front to attack. These brigades will remain at 20% max TOE until the new year, and thus unuseable, but they can serve to keep fortifications decaying.

Going straight from defense to attack without any meaningful preparation also presents another problem. In many instances, our forces are very strong but in areas less suited for offensive action, while in other areas where we would like to concentrate our forces for an offensive we have fewer forces immediately available. Rather than wait until our forces have been redeployed however, we are attacking now while the advantage of the cold weather is at its greatest. Next turn I will begin to slide forces up and down the front to achieve the concentration I need for offensives in areas I deem more productive. For instance, Kalinin and Western front will be slid southwards to create a greater concentration of forces west of Kursk where our forces are achieving a good deal of success, but are too few to fully exploit the situation.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/3A90D0874D7449CE995B2E10DE1D1D93.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 24: Kursk (12/8/2020 5:04:58 AM)

General Zhadov, commander of 6th Army was promoted from General Major to General Leitenant in recognition of his many victories achieved over the last several weeks. 6th Army is now up to 29 victories and 58 defeats.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/B4DED2DB23A941EAB1C690CF10169589.jpg[/image]



CapAndGown -> Turn 24: Donets basin (12/8/2020 5:08:35 AM)

Another partisan attack this turn left German forces around Stalino out of supply again.


[image]local://upfiles/2633/E129587879CA40ADA9E8A3BEEA57340D.jpg[/image]



Seminole -> RE: Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 5:26:59 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: CapAndGown

November 27, 1941
At this point we are faced with a juggling act of keeping our existing fortifications from decaying while sending forces forward to attack the enemy. Some fortifications will have to be abandoned, but we intend to keep a solid line of defenses, 2 hexes deep manned using brigade sized units. For instance, the tank brigades from my "tank parade" that have reached 50 morale and 40+ experience are being sent forward from their training grounds to take over the fortifications from units moving to the front to attack. These brigades will remain at 20% max TOE until the new year, and thus unuseable, but they can serve to keep fortifications decaying.


Are your tank brigades showing as depleted?
Can you monitor the fort decay and see if the rule is working, or if your unready units prevent decay:

Fort decay:
○ no decay if fort above 3.10,
○ no decay if not-depleted not-routed combat unit in hex,
○ up to 25% chance for no decay if fort above 2.10



Do you plan to not use the tank brigades and just hold them in the rear until you make tank corps?

Enjoying the AAR, looking forward to your winter offensive.



CapAndGown -> RE: Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 5:42:18 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole

Are your tank brigades showing as depleted?
Can you monitor the fort decay and see if the rule is working, or if your unready units prevent decay:

Fort decay:
○ no decay if fort above 3.10,
○ no decay if not-depleted not-routed combat unit in hex,
○ up to 25% chance for no decay if fort above 2.10

Do you plan to not use the tank brigades and just hold them in the rear until you make tank corps?

Enjoying the AAR, looking forward to your winter offensive.


Well, pooh. I didn't realize depleted units couldn't hold a fort. I will need to raise their max TOE a bit to get around that. I still can't afford for them to go to 100% TOE when there are other, more capable units that need the replacements.

Edit: Scratch that: I just looked and they are "unready" but not "depleted." So everything is kopasetik. Still, good to be reminded of the fort decay rule.

As far as tank brigades: I am going to use any tank brigades (and divisions) that are currently at 100% max TOE as part of the winter offensive. These are generally former tank divisions that downgraded to brigade status. The non-100% TOE brigades are tank divisions that were destroyed and came back at 20% max TOE. I am very interested in making guards tank brigades from which to form tank corps. To do that they need to get blooded. So I am taking those brigades and holding them behind the line in reserve mode so that they can take part in any attacks without actually being on the front line.



CapAndGown -> Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 7:33:56 AM)

I forgot to mention previously: all I-153 regiments have been upgraded to modern aircraft (Mig, LaGG, Yak, P-40, or Hurricane). There are still 18 I-16 regiments. No one is now in the national reserve except for any units cycling through to recover morale.

Other production news: we are now producing a surplus of KV-1s and T-34s (at least until all my tank brigades are reset to 100% TOE). We are severely lacking in T-60s however.

Vehicles are 216(43)



chaos45 -> RE: Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 11:00:38 AM)

When you make guards corps remember you can use 2 guards units and 1 non-guards unit.



Seminole -> RE: Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 3:31:12 PM)

Regarding the tank brigades.
I would suggest maximizing their TOE ASAP, because you’re losing time to train up the other 80% of the TOE as it stands.
The existing morale/exp is going to get washed by conscripts.

The fact you’re building tank pools suggests to me you should change this now.



CapAndGown -> RE: Turn 24: Attack, attack, attack! (12/8/2020 6:49:11 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Seminole

Regarding the tank brigades.
I would suggest maximizing their TOE ASAP, because you’re losing time to train up the other 80% of the TOE as it stands.
The existing morale/exp is going to get washed by conscripts.

The fact you’re building tank pools suggests to me you should change this now.


I am going to wait until the new year before bumping the TOE.
1) The armaments multiplier goes up then.
2) The number of armaments factories repaired will be increased.
3) I have sooooo many units coming in now that are going to suck up tons and tons or replacements, even the ones that come in at 20% max TOE.
4) Although tanks may not be an issue, non-afv replacements will still be required.
5) For purposes of keeping things organized so I can keep track of them, I want to bump them all at once. (One reason they are all pink (54th Army) is so I can easily identify them.)
6) I feel I can wait 4 more turns.

Edit: Just to give you an idea of how many reinforcements I am receiving over the next 4-5 turns, here is the list:


[image]local://upfiles/2633/F7E360BCB1CA4EBCB9432370E4096AFF.jpg[/image]



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