Chernobyl -> RE: Late game modelling. Might it be improved? (1/10/2021 9:17:58 PM)
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In my games against the computer I've never seen a front build up like that. I am too busy smashing units with artillery and advancing. This is with +20% MPP for the computer, but not +20% experience, so maybe if you're playing with extra AI unit exp then they might hold out longer? But the main question I have for you is: how many corps did you destroy by what date? I have a save game against the Entente AI where it's early May 1916 and I've destroyed 145 regular corps (not counting cavalry, hq, artillery, detachments, mountain, ships, etc). Their front is completely busted in Italy France and Russia. They don't have enough units to form a coherent line anywhere except the Caucasus (the ai tends to send too many units to the caucasus for some reason) I do think there is a bit of "MPP bloat" and an issue where particularly Russia can elect to sit back and tech up with their 1600 max tech pool which bizarrely is the same as England and Germany. And their Industry tech which gives a massive +125 MPP per turn (compare to the second best in the game Germany which gets roughly +65 per turn)... In addition to changes to Russia's technological and economic potential (reduce the max Russia can spend on tech to something closer to Austria)... well I won't go into more detail than that cause it's kind of outside the scope of this thread. But one change I'm implementing in my personal scenario/mod that I think applies to the issues raised in this thread: increasing the global buyback time for Corps/Detachments/etc. Not sure about increasing buyback MPP cost but the time is ridiculously short. You get these corps back way too quickly (it's practically instant) and there's very little early pressure for certain nations to buy early to get "ahead of the losses curve" if you will. Problem #1: The quick buyback time punishes attackers who destroy units and take losses to do so. Yes you get a NM swing for killing a unit, but this is only a long term advantage. In the short term the benefits of taking say 8 total damage to 3 corps for killing one enemy corps is only 47MPP (135 for their buyback - 88 for your repairs). For certain nations with weak economies and low NM pools (Ottomans, Italy) such a tradeoff isn't even necessarily advantageous at all. These nations desperately need their MPP as early as possible for technology and overpowered weapons (artillery) and it's often disadvantageous for them to trade even at positive ratio. Moreover, spending full movement points on 3 corps to repair is arguably more costly in momentum than is losing a corps for 2 turns awaiting buyback. Problem #2: I think an even bigger problem is that it (the low cost in time and possibly also MPP to buyback a unit) contributes to Russia (and sometimes France England or others) to simply turtle and tech up. To illustrate I will elaborate on Russia: It's unclear to me what the advantage is for Russia to press hard in 1914/15 with their units on any front except the Austria/Lemberg area and the Caucasus if there's an opening. They have the greatest advantage in terms of quantity of units anywhere on the map, the potential to throw their forces in bulk to stretch the capability of Austrian/German defenses and force German corps to early rail transport to the East, and yet the current optimal strategy for Russia may very well be for Russia to turtle and tech, using your numerous corps as meat shield timewasters not to be bought back until their research is maxed out at 1600/1600 and their artillery is purchased. Yes, Russia who has the greatest numbers advantage also has the greatest potential for economic growth and their tech growth potential is quite high too. Due mostly to their advantage in numbers, but also partially to the fact that buybacks are cheap and quick, there's little urgency to purchase back lost Russian corps until their numbers approach double digits. Combine this with a passive/turtle strat where Russia is not attacking into Germany at all, and they simply aren't losing many corps. Germany doesn't have enough spare forces to push towards Warsaw until early 1915 and against a shrewd opponent who retreats only the most exposed Russian corps every turn, Germany won't do much damage until mid 1915. By which point Russia has made significant tech/economic progress. Russia's MPP per turn actually surpasses Germany's after four Industry tech levels (I am aware there is a tech speed penalty for Russia/Austria etc and some cost increases for Russia but the point isn't that Russia has slightly worse tech research than Germany, it's that Russia's tech ability is almost as good as Germany's while her economic growth far outclasses everyone else in the game (+125 per turn compare to say Austria who get about +40-45 MPP per Industry Tech advancement)). Worst of all, in the case of Russia, there is NO COUNTER to this strategy. The Central Powers might breathe easier due to fewer Russian advances in the early game, but they also have no way of stopping the proportionally stronger Russian tech/economic growth from such a turtle strategy. The Entente simply has a unit advantage that they can cash in to buy time and there's no way for Germany to throw an early money wrench into this strategy. Germany can defeat Serbia and have more units in France, but Russia's tech progress won't be slowed by a single MPP until you kill say 8 or more Russian corps (which is far too late to put a dent in their research, not to mention the costs and risks involved in maximizing early Russian losses). This problem applies most strongly to Russia because of their superior numbers, but also applies to the other powers to a lesser extent. As Germany or Austria I often judge (correctly) that I can wait an extra turn or two to click buyback on lost corps because they arrive so damn quickly. Okay so as I said that all probably deserves its own thread, and multiple changes as I have alluded to, but the point relevant to this thread is that it relates to our discussion about problems with late game unit/MPP bloat and buyback costs and time: For starters, I think one easy change that would improve the game is increase the buyback time for Detachments/Corps/etc* from 60% of 3 turns to something like 100% of 5 turns. It would force tougher and more interesting economic dilemmas (try planning ahead what your front will look like 5 turns from now instead of 2) and partially weaken the ahistorical turtle/techup strategy. *Also probably increase the buyback time of ANZAC corps by quite a bit because they come from the other side of the world!
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