RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (Full Version)

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golden delicious -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/8/2021 6:38:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rhinobones

In post #22 you hinted at revising the scenario so I thought I would offer a suggestion. Take it or leave it.

My ludicrous assumptions for 1939-40 would be:

1. Germany and Russia divide Poland.
2. The Allies stay with the appeasement strategy.
3. The Russia/German non-aggression pact remains intact.
4. French Blitzkrieg and Barbarossa don’t happen.
5. Germany does not get involved in North Africa.
6. 2 million German troops available for invasion of US
7. Russia takes the opportunity to seize Alaska.
8. Japan invades Hawaii and blockades Panama.
9. Germany captures the Arsenal of Democracy.



Hitler essentially a three point program:
1) Unify the German peoples into a single state
2) Humiliate France
3) Destroy Communism

In proposing to replace 2 and 3 with "carry out the most ambitious amphibious campaign in human history from a standing start", you're essentially positing a scenario where Nazism is a completely different movement. Actually, to make this work you'd want to see both France and Germany emerge essentially as Communist states in the 1930s- which was entirely possible. The Spanish Civil War would have been won by the Republic and in the process Italy would have been humiliated and possibly subjected to another Communist revolution.

So then we have a more or less unified Europe under Communism as of 1939. However, this still leaves us with the problem of the world's largest navy just waving this ideologically hostile fleet over the Atlantic to attack the United States. I think it's fundamentally impossible to have Germany launching a land campaign in the Americas unless Britain has already been taken out of the picture in some fashion.



Lobster -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/8/2021 7:14:49 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: golden delicious

Hitler essentially a three point program:
1) Unify the German peoples into a single state
2) Humiliate France
3) Destroy Communism



This is fairly how Hitler saw it. Bind Germany to the Nazi Party (Hitler), punish those responsible for the Treaty of Versailles, unite Western Europe in a grand alliance (Anti-Comintern Pact) to defeat Communism (Russia).

He succeeded in 1 and 2. He did get his pact. He failed in 3.

Regarding the U.K. He initially deluded himself into thinking the British would acquiesce to German dominance of Continental Europe and satisfy themselves with going about their business with their global colonies thus ending the War in Europe. Leaving Hitler...er...Germany and Western Europe to handle an isolated Communist Russia. I don't immediately recall what delusions he convinced himself of regarding the U.K. after the defeat of Russia but he did realize that sooner or later he...er...United Europe, would have to face off against the U.S.A.

Consider what would have happened if he had better trusted Japan and had included them in his Grand Scheme of Things. Perhaps the Soviet Union would have indeed been defeated and Japan would have attacked the U.S.A. at a later date instead of pissing them off so they did their own thing.

Germany and the Second World War
Edited by Research Institute for Military History, Potsdam, Germany



rhinobones -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/8/2021 8:49:32 PM)

quote:

France and Germany emerge essentially as Communist states in the 1930s- which was entirely possible


Good. Glad to see you fully support the alternative proposal.



Lobster -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/8/2021 9:01:23 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rhinobones

In post #22 you hinted at revising the scenario so I thought I would offer a suggestion. Take it or leave it.

My ludicrous assumptions for 1939-40 would be:

1. Germany and Russia divide Poland.
2. The Allies stay with the appeasement strategy.
3. The Russia/German non-aggression pact remains intact.
4. French Blitzkrieg and Barbarossa don’t happen.
5. Germany does not get involved in North Africa.
6. 2 million German troops available for invasion of US
7. Russia takes the opportunity to seize Alaska.
8. Japan invades Hawaii and blockades Panama.
9. Germany captures the Arsenal of Democracy.



You left out Bizarro Superman. When does he come in? [:D]



golden delicious -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/9/2021 9:18:47 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Lobster


Regarding the U.K. He initially deluded himself into thinking the British would acquiesce to German dominance of Continental Europe and satisfy themselves with going about their business with their global colonies thus ending the War in Europe. Leaving Hitler...er...Germany and Western Europe to handle an isolated Communist Russia. I don't immediately recall what delusions he convinced himself of regarding the U.K. after the defeat of Russia but he did realize that sooner or later he...er...United Europe, would have to face off against the U.S.A.


Well, the thing is Hitler expected Britain to act on the basis of realpolitik. In theory, a major war between Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia would have been a gift to Britain as whoever was victorious would emerge exhausted. This was a factor in the policy of the Western Allies until 1939: to avoid confronting Hitler before he had a chance to get into a war with Russia. Of course the Nazi-Soviet pact put an end to this fantasy as it became apparent that Hitler would fight in the West first. However once France was beaten Hitler didn't understand why Britain would want to fight on rather than standing aside and letting him get on with his cataclysmic war in Russia.

If one looks at the condition Britain and the Empire were in after the war it's easy to see why this was Hitler's perception: the war ultimately was more damaging to Britain in the long term than it was to Germany.

quote:

Consider what would have happened if he had better trusted Japan and had included them in his Grand Scheme of Things. Perhaps the Soviet Union would have indeed been defeated and Japan would have attacked the U.S.A. at a later date instead of pissing them off so they did their own thing.


My understanding is that Japan turning against the United States instead of the Soviet Union was a result of an internal power struggle in Japan between the Navy and the Army, which the Navy won. In any case Japan's economy would have started to fall apart in 1942 in the absence of a source of oil, which meant the Dutch East Indies one way or another.



golden delicious -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/9/2021 9:21:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rhinobones

Good. Glad to see you fully support the alternative proposal.


Well- not really. You still have the problem of the Royal Navy. It's easy to knock of most of continental Europe for Communism but this still doesn't put Comintern in a position to cross the Atlantic.



cathar1244 -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/9/2021 12:13:18 PM)

quote:

Actually, to make this work you'd want to see both France and Germany emerge essentially as Communist states in the 1930s- which was entirely possible.


Except a stubborn fellow named Pilsudski thrashed the Bolsheviks like red-headed stepchildren on the banks of the Vistula in 1920. [:D]

Cheers



golden delicious -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/9/2021 2:31:27 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: cathar1244


Except a stubborn fellow named Pilsudski thrashed the Bolsheviks like red-headed stepchildren on the banks of the Vistula in 1920. [:D]

Cheers


I take it you're Polish then...

Irrespective of the results of the Russo-Polish war, there's no particular reason that the strongman who emerged from the wreckage of the Weimar Republic had to be a Fascist instead of a Communist.



cathar1244 -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/9/2021 4:05:36 PM)

quote:

I take it you're Polish then...


Hmm, I don't recall anyone using me to polish anything lately. [;)]

No, just one of the episodes of history I've heard about.

Cheers



Jeremy Mac Donald -> RE: Fall Grau 2.27 (2/10/2021 8:08:55 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: rhinobones

In post #22 you hinted at revising the scenario so I thought I would offer a suggestion. Take it or leave it.

My ludicrous assumptions for 1939-40 would be:

1. Germany and Russia divide Poland.
2. The Allies stay with the appeasement strategy.
3. The Russia/German non-aggression pact remains intact.
4. French Blitzkrieg and Barbarossa don’t happen.
5. Germany does not get involved in North Africa.
6. 2 million German troops available for invasion of US
7. Russia takes the opportunity to seize Alaska.
8. Japan invades Hawaii and blockades Panama.
9. Germany captures the Arsenal of Democracy.


OK fair enough - I think the point is you have traded one set of unlikely propositions and events for another set.

Given that I have already shown a penchant for 'very' alternative history I can see how your suggestions could make a fun and fine scenario with a German/Russo/Japanese alliance getting stuck up in America and using the engine to simulate political events in Europe as well as a deteriorating alliance between Russia and Germany who actually want to be enemies. I see a fun scenario there.

However what I see is another scenario. This one is about a Europe dominated by Axis Germany invading North America with Europe already under their thumb and dragging many of their allies into the maelstrom of of a flat footed but rapidly expanding United States.

Plus there is already 20 years of playtests on this one. We hope the vast majority of bugs have been worked out.



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