RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (Full Version)

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FoilingYourPlan -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (5/28/2021 8:52:21 AM)

For example if I'm very incompetent German player and stucked at pre-war border at T16.So no VP, will there be any punishment event that affect me?



loki100 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (5/28/2021 9:41:47 AM)

yes, if you don't meet the axis high water mark target for Jan 42 then you automatically lose.



FoilingYourPlan -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (5/29/2021 10:20:52 AM)

I'm confused about how supply works in WiTE2 (another refugee from Paradox). Supposedly I pocket Stalinrad, and Soviet player left a supply depot in Stalinrad to make a stand, what happened next?



loki100 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (5/29/2021 10:28:13 AM)

rather than fill up the AAR, there is a useful thread here:

https://www.matrixgames.com/forums/tm.asp?m=4993098

suggest reading 30.3 of the manual for a discussion of the principles rather than the actual mechanics

the rules in 25.9.2 (isolation) and the option in 25.9.3 in combination answer your exact question




GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/3/2021 12:22:54 AM)

T33

The fall of Leningrad. Unfortunate, but by this point inevitable. The fortress itself only had 50k men in it by the end - I started evacuating forces out of the fortress as soon as it became clear the city was going to be doomed to isolation in a few months - so that's a silver lining. I obviously would rather not have lost the city at all, but if you have to buy something for 50k men, an entire season of a panzergruppe's time ranks up there.

In a fit of vengeance many of those evacuated forces hit weak Germans along the northern front.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/3mXngxs/33Ngood.jpg[/img]

Admittedly, not all of them worked out that way. The smaller artillery ammo counts for secondary fronts can lead to miscalculations...

[img]https://i.ibb.co/JjNqDrb/33-Nlessgood.jpg[/img]

And per tradition, with the blizzard raging I unleash my panzer assassins...which are, at this point in the war, mostly just men with more men behind them until we can overrun a maintenance yard. (Fun historical aside, given the German tendency to recover, repair, and rebuild lost tanks, often their highest formal/recorded losses happened exactly when situations like this would occur, as that was a point where the AFV had to be written off).

More importantly the third and final phase of Temny Lesse begins as we enter the sector of the map where the operation got it's name sake. Granted its "heavy woods" and not "dark forest", but the army in front of Vyazma woods is now midway through its cascading collapse that hopefully will lead to a good position at the end of March. I'm pretty sure the Germans are just about out of strategic reserves to send here...

[img]https://i.ibb.co/09JKnhf/33-Centerhammer.jpg[/img]

Down south, it's important to support the center drive strategically and make sure Bobo doesn't re-allocate. A series of attacks is sent in to bash axis allies and drive home the message that pain is waiting if the German units redeploy somewhere else.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/PzPh8MC/33South.jpg[/img]

And, while of course they're arch-imperialist capitalists who will be buried by history, it's nice to see these guys showing up:

[img]https://i.ibb.co/nDH5qLJ/33yanks.jpg[/img]




Beethoven1 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/3/2021 1:04:14 AM)

What is the reason for thinking he would want to redeploy troops from the south elsewhere? Is it that there is normally less blizzard in the south or something like that?



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/3/2021 3:20:20 AM)

We’ve added a lot of effective frontage for the Germans to cover this winter. Either by the expansion of the front out near Kursk-Orel, the resulting L between AGS and AGC, real threats prohibiting regimental defenses in many places in AGN, and in some cases divisions just being pounded to the point where they need to be used in twos and threes.

On top of that, PG/PAs 2 and 3 and their supporting infantry have been taking a beating and the armies near Kursk-Bryansk were badly battered (and seem to have triggered some reserves to prevent further collapse). I think that without fresh units pouring in, more and more of AGC is going to be bleeding strength to the point where resistance becomes increasingly difficult. I don’t want new Germans coming in period, so when I see allied units holding ground and possibly freeing up German units...



Beethoven1 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/6/2021 2:12:56 AM)

How much have you used your air in winter, and do you think it is worth using air to support the winter offensive if you take higher operational losses in bad weather?



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/6/2021 7:14:37 PM)

Almost none. Once or twice I had some fighters and GS ready to sortie during normal snowfall periods to make sure counterattacking wouldn’t be a walk in the park; these generally didn’t achieve much. On the offense, almost never - my optimal attacking periods were under the cover of blizzards where air doesn’t just take losses, it is greatly reduced in effectiveness. Maybe if I’d pulled some mass stuff forward during “snow” weeks, but by and large most of the VVS went to the rear for training and modernization, and to allow me to build up some aircraft stocks so my first mistakes or big commitments don’t leave me back in biplane land



shermanny -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/6/2021 7:46:39 PM)

Going from history and from my experience in a playtest match, the Germans are likely to recover enough to mount a 1942 summer offensive. They don't win even if they take Moscow in 1942, but they can win by taking Stalingrad and Baku. So as the Soviets, it's a good idea to prepare to defend the South. It's particularly bad to lose Rostov early, because it's a supply chokepoint while you have it and if/when it falls, they get Krasnodar and a chance at Grozny and then it becomes difficult to reinforce and resupply Baku.

So the key would seem to be to hold Rostov firmly, not allow easy penetration between Rostov and Voronezh, and if necessary, give ground further north.



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/6/2021 9:44:57 PM)

I tend to think each war is different, and while you can mark some general patterns, it’s player decisions that determine which terrain is vital. I won one German game with a spring offensive that was focused south of Moscow, and never came within 200 miles of Stalingrad or Grozny. The Germans have a strong position to go in on, even with my winter successes, so they have a lot of choices in where to weight the effort that might make a win.



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/9/2021 7:45:40 PM)

T34

A week mostly characterized by action on the Moscow axis. The sad reality is that I'm starting to wear down or outrun logistics in other fronts, so other than a couple failed attacks and some pressure near Kharkov, this is it for the week.

The good news is that the targeted portion of the German line is continuing to have a hard time resisting after a winter of mostly losing battles.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/HVGBK6Z/34hammer.jpg[/img]

Beyond that, I'm happy to report that the coveted guards banners are beginning to be awarded. Note I didn't say "proud", as this is rather late for it. It appears that roughly eight wins in the line where infantry units have a good chance of becoming guards, though it is still a bit based in chance. Getting that many wins can also mean they aren't in great shape when finally recognized...

[img]https://i.ibb.co/Ph36ncR/34guards.jpg[/img]

With all that being said, I did not do guards management very well. I mostly went in thinking that just plain attacking and winning would eventually produce them. And while that's true, it took a bit - compare that to some players who take a more deliberate and husbanded approach and manage to create enough for the two winter guards rifle corps right off the bat, and in the right location to boot. I in turn am just having them pop up across the front and making due as they arise.

The one upside is that with over 70 major infantry formations at five or more wins so far - and thus only a few wins away-, I have hopes of putting a reasonable number of guards formations into the field by the time the Germans resume the offensive.




GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/13/2021 11:51:40 PM)

T35

This week marks the commitment to the final phase of Temnny Les, without enough time to substantially re-orient forces before the end of winter. The issue here is that come March the weather will usually calm down into just regular snowfall, with just regular snow on the ground. Besides easing axis logistics, this will increase the overall combat capability and mobility of everyone. Given the Wehrmacht still has exceptional troops (NM 75) and I..well..do not (NM 45), and that the Germans still maintain their extraordinary mobile formations compared to mine (they still have the trucks and gas for 50 MP units while I'm still at 35 at most), that baseline snow is more in their favor than mine. At the very least they'll have the potential for a more active defense, at worst they'll come back off the ropes with a real counterattack that makes commitment dangerous...

On the flip side, I've been taking the hammer to certain portions of the German line and they're still on the back foot. If I let up the pressure not only will they still be holding certain ground I don't want them on, like Borodino, they'll be in shape to conduct a real March offensive.

Either way, its about time for everyone to put their chips down.

I decided to go big. Assault forces renew their efforts to cut off and eventually seize Rzhev. Besides the political value of the city, it is an essential stepping stone in any German effort, to envelop Moscow from the north or target additional objectives in that direction.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/TWMxxJ1/35Rzhaev.jpg[/img]

The offensive continues towards Vyazma with additional intensity, burning through forces and readiness at a rate that isn't long terms sustainable...but with not much time left, it doesn't have to be. The ultimate idea is that between the drives on Rzhev and Vyazma, I will at the very least cut the supply lines headed into Borodino and more likely create a dilemma where the Germans have to choose between giving up plenty of ground and some good terrain or fight on and risk a potential envelopment of a sizeable force. Either way I think I'll be able to knock the spring start line back to roughly Vyazma.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/d7D9htX/35vyazma.jpg[/img]

And as the last other act of the winter drama, it's time to start moving on Kharkov. Take the city, don't, it doesn't matter. What matters is that PG/PA 1 and the southern armies have been stretched to breaking, and I'd like to keep them that way as long as possible. Kharkov provides the bait to keep that fight running. I'm reasonably aware of the gap in front of me near Kursk, but the needs of the Moscow drive have meant I'm not able to exploit in force - logistics, and certain frontage issues as the snow is likely to thin. The hole certainly has a use for it, just not right at the moment...

[img]https://i.ibb.co/qR99kHV/35-Kharkov.jpg[/img]



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/19/2021 3:01:18 PM)

T36

February is drawing to a close, and with it the last of the really favorable conditions, but as mentioned above I have committed now on a strategy of attacking all the way through March to secure additional ground and to keep the imitative as long as possible. (Little "i", big I Initiative gameplay mechanic can't change until late '42 at the earliest).

The good news is the continued pressure on AGC is causing spiraling German losses. They can't really dig now in most of the contested areas, not more than to a level 1 at least. When those tired and frostbitten units get hit by yet another wave of soviets, they leave behind a trail of wounded men and broken down equipment in the snow - in gameplay terms, a lot of damaged elements get destroyed. And unless they want to go all the way back to Smolensk, they need to stand and fight and take the same hit next week. I sincerely hope it's not a pleasant situation for them.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/qxjRSvn/36Losses.jpg[/img]

Most of the action continues near Moscow-Rzhev with the double envelopment beginning to form. I continue to be of the opinion that losing a few thousand soviets men in multiple wave attacks to finally crush a panzer division is a good trade, though I'm sure by now my riflemen are dreading such orders:

[img]https://i.ibb.co/DVp6JVN/36Center.jpg[/img]

The frozen north continues to be mostly just tit for tat. I really shouldn't have bothered following up attacks here - it's not like I need the hexes or can exploit damage caused, but pride and sunk cost fallacy sometimes get the better of me:

[img]https://i.ibb.co/z8SnR9Q/36North.jpg[/img]

Down south operations near Kharkov continue, as well as some abortive attacks near Rostov-Voroshilovgrad. As you can tell by the holds here, I am getting used to working with assault fronts in the center and overestimating the power of units that are still suffering the heaviest of artillery ammunition maluses. The upside is that the German supply net down here has to be in shambles, I've either gotten adjacent to or on too many rail lines for many of these front line positions to be having an easy time - something noticeable as their division strength bleeds away each week without seeming to recover if they aren't basically on a major railyard.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/dBS1yFP/36South.jpg[/img]

And finally, with only 4.55M in the field (this has not been a cheap winter...) all this attacking power ha to come from somewhere. The Big Bluff is in front of Kharkov-Orel. I have been desperately using the same handful of divisions in attacking rotations to hit weak German units to create the impression of strength here...but really it's a paper thin line one step short of using Quaker guns. The next waves of reinforcements are headed here to create a tolerable situation in Spring, but right now it's just keep kicking the Germans and crossed fingers they're too busy reeling to come back the other way.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/d59gX17/36BigLie.jpg[/img]





GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/21/2021 2:44:15 PM)

T37

Do to real world issues, SpeedySteve will be assuming Bobo's command of the Ostheer as of T38. Bobo has been a very skilled opponent, and one who has been entirely pleasant to correspond with as well as play against - he handed me a great many setbacks, and it has to be said he did it with skill and a reasonable degree of historicity rather than by looking for fringe exploits at the edge of the engine. The community is better off with players like that.

That said, the war must go on. With just snow in place and his last week in command, Bobo proved that the Germans can still bloody your nose quickly given the opportunity to counterattack. Several of my more exposed elements got thrown back:

[img]https://i.ibb.co/XjpLJRz/37Losses.jpg[/img]

I decided to eat the losses and continue the attack, confident that my depths of ready heroes of the motherland can sustain the pace of slaughter longer. It helps to have several formations behind the front regenerating CPP while the Germans basically have to work for every formation they can take off the line. Every week I try to make sure several corps or armies are "in the rear" building up, while I know from experience that getting a few divisions off the German line can be tricky business. We can simply bleed readiness - and for that matte actual blood - more consistently than they can.

In the center, the jaws of the envelopment almost close, but I come up just short. As opposed to a swift victory, this will become a running battle. Obviously not as preferable, but given what I wrote above it'll do.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/4YFQTDv/37C.jpg[/img]

Further south, I don't have the depth of forces to reply well to the German attacks and mostly have to back off. The exception is Kharkov-Belgorod as I continue to strike for the feeder rail lines and hope to make this area untenable soon.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/LP0Vp9m/37South.jpg[/img]

And as the winter is entering it's final stage, a quick glance at how the VVS reserve build up is going. Enough aircraft to pick a few good battles and still be a threat I think, even though I really don't need all those U2s...

[img]https://i.ibb.co/kQMLJh5/37-Airframe.jpg[/img]



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/25/2021 12:38:16 AM)

"Modern operational echelonment of efforts in depth does not mean engagement of these efforts either piecemeal or in operational packets. Modern operational echelonment is the sequential and continuous increase of operational efforts aimed at breaking enemy resistance through its whole depth. The greater the resistance in depth, and the greater its intensity, then the greater must be the echelonment of the offensive’s operational depth."

Or, simplified from our soviet friends, you better bring some operational reserves to the party if you want to keep attacking long enough for it to matter. We did; as you can guess from our AFV losses, plenty of shiny tank brigades are essentially committing, being lit on fire, recovered, and recommited. But we can afford it, and they can't, so let's keep it up. Despite a fresh round of German counterattacks, their ability hit back is fading while we can keep the pressure on:

[img]https://i.ibb.co/TtWBDq2/38Losses.png[/img]

That pressure is making itself known now. Even in well apportioned theaters we're seeing the first signs of operational exhaustion, allowing a temporary envelopment. We won't get them all, but I'd be surprised if we don't get something out of it. And it's not like those units will be in any shape to resist next week. We're probably not going to be in position for a deep operation, but we are certainly moving towards the climax of a deep battle.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/fr3QBbk/38center.jpg[/img]

The south, in contrast is in position for a limited deep operation. Not quite the sundering envisioned by pre-war theorists (alas for the tools of 1944!), but even a few divisions flung into the enemy's operational depths are sure to reap rewards, especially in conjunction with firmly seizing the rails south of Kharkov.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/py8Sz8C/38South.jpg[/img]









GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/27/2021 4:52:52 PM)

T39

A last paltry blizzard up near Leningrad (or whatever the fascists are calling it these days), which promises to bring a small sliver of itself down country next week, but the winter is well and fully drawing to a close now. A few more weeks at most before the thaw and the nature of the war changes back.

Time for the last acts of the winter drama.

In front of Moscow, the envelopment caused the Germans to abandon Rzhev and fall back on Vyazma as they attempt to save the force. The Wehrmacht still has teeth, and several of my leading edge units get rocked back and let a lot of the germans reform well, but in the theme of the winter we always have more reserves coming up from the depths. The jaws slam shut on two divisions and occupy Rzhev while the southern pincer pushes on the railways supporting Vyazma. The final goal of this axis will be to seize that rail yard, making a spring jump off along this axis to be very difficult.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/5hCnbPF/39Center.png[/img]

Down south there is a nominally strong division in Kharkov, but we've been watching the composition of the Germans down here carefully. Almost all of their units are desperately short on infantry, and the light division in Kharkov is no exception. Even though the CV of the unit remains high, it simply doesn't have enough squads to sustain a close quarters battle with an army in the streets of Kharkov. Liberation is at hand, as is the removal of a major stepping stone if PA 1 wanted to drive NE into Voronzeh and beyond. Meanwhile, finding no resistance near Sumy, cavalry drives hardy for the German rear - ignore encirclement, ignore local actions, just aim for the most valuable parts of the depth and watch it force a German displacement. Or that's the theory.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/vxn1xHr/39S.png[/img]

And it's time to start looking to the future. With this campaign coming to a close, refitting near the front is no longer practical. Many divisions have been badly tattered, and I do not need them for immediate offensive operations. They are returned to the SR for two reasons. One is that they can be refit much more easily there, and all without drawing on the increasingly strained logistics of my remaining attacking echelons. The other is that come the spring, I really do want a Strategic Reserve; I have the force density to eat some initial blows if it means easily putting a quarter million men where I need them most based on enemy moves.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/stJ23JL/39SR.jpg[/img]




GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (6/30/2021 12:58:51 AM)

T40

Now those are the type of numbers we like to see...

[img]https://i.ibb.co/2gnNTrx/40Losses.jpg[/img]

As is probably no surprise, a great deal of that came from cleaning up the two surrounded divisions. However, a surprise bounty fell in Vyazma. Two guards rifle corps and the better part of two armies have been converging on the city since last week, sheltering behind the lines. They forcibly evict the panzer division holding the city (for a decent haul in abandoned panzers), and as a bonus overrun an entire flak regiment that was presumably assigned to prevent me from bombing the railyard - and in all fairness, if I didn't have Vyazma soon, the bombers were going to fly, so its just a happy congruence here.

In the shot you can see I suffered penalty for using armies form different fronts - an error - and the classic "more lost than in the battle" which always represents troops lost to surrender in installations, cities, etc. that were not part of the combat.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/d4p9xrd/40C.jpg[/img]

Down south, I have to admit the attack I least expected to fail this week was two weak (2=2) romanian divisions. But they held me. As consolation we cut the lines leading up to Rostov, sent cav to clean up some ceded ground between Sumy and Kharkov, and while my thrust towards Poltava came to ignominious routing end, the remaining cav division ripped down the double rails to threaten Chernigov and Kiev.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/WVQKTnL/40S.jpg[/img]

As a slight bit of analysis, while casualty figures like that make you feel good, what does it really mean? Well, by spring the Germans will have "built" roughly 205k German men since the war began, and are now recruiting around 10k new Germans a turn. Between starting pools, disabled recovery, allies who-count-as German, and recruiting and the like they probably have around 420k German men in reserve. Those will come up much faster in the spring. So these are not economy-ending totals...what they represent is in the short term an inability to move onto the offensive without extensive refit as those men come forward, buying perhaps one to three months depending if you Count march a German opportunity window, and at the strategic level rapidly accelerating the point where the Germans are living hand to mouth in '42...but only '42 as come '43 Hitler will realize things have gotten quite bad and mobilize the German masses (with a corresponding drop in NM). Basically turns like this take away German opportunities at the front of case blue, and ensure that case blue will reach it's culminating point sooner on the back end.

It is not practical, barring wildly mismatched opponents, to pretend the Germans won't be back in the spring no matter what you do, but the losses can help narrow their window of dominance significantly, as well as force the historical decision of "who really needs these men" that precluded a theater wide offense in real life.



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/3/2021 12:42:03 AM)

As March 1942 came to a close, a small council of senior officers in OKH read the writing on the wall. They might have one more short season of victory, but the Heer could not knock Russia out of the war; the only question was how much Germany would have left to negotiate with when it ended...Valkyrie came early.

On T41, Speedy conceded the game (he'll cover the details in the axis post), on account of the Heer not being a viable force for a spring/summer offensive.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/YD0hcxm/EoGVP.jpg[/img]

On the face of it, 579 VP is not a horrible position to be in after the winter. The historical Germans were, after all, down somewhere in the 540s if we translate it. However, drop from 653 HWM represent more than just 74 points, it represents 40 points of potential lost forever (bonus trade offs and events), and sitting sub 600 with both Leningrad and Sevastopol in the bag. The path to 708 (the historical soviet HWM on January 1 1945, and hence a decent target for a minor or a draw) is arduous, and the path to 750 (decisive victory) would be intensely difficult to put together.

AGN has no more real potential, but has to stay strong enough if it doesn't want to lose Leningrad, AGC would be starting from Vyazma/Bryanks - only AGS would have its relative historical start position. A "perfect all +6" repeat of case blue would add 84 points...but would be unlikely given the need to retake several '41 (say 30 points for Kursk, Orel, Kharkov) cities to get there which would still only be 114 points - a few shy of the historical HWM of 697. It's either that or try to rip Moscow and the northern plains out of the hands of the strongest concentrations of the red army.

Already I think Steve could see it would take an astounding performance to stay in the fight.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/xMtSqPm/Eo-G-Front.jpg[/img]

And the Heer was not in shape to turn in an astounding performance.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/d6Wdgk9/EoGOOB.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.ibb.co/Bf7GzLJ/Eo-GLosses.jpg[/img]


I would like to thank both of my opponents for playing the game well, generally historically, and as always avoiding exploits in the engine. The last is a matter of opinion, but I'm generally of the thought that in any massive undertaking there will be loose strings you can find and pull. Winning by yanking them as hard as possible might make you good at the game, but is it really what you want in a historical recreation of a war? The game is in my eyes much more enjoyable as a vehicle for that when you don't pull on those strings, and neither of my opponents did.

More to follow:

Analysis over time!

Where WITE2 and WITE1 differed in this game!

Soviet Deep Battle Doctrine in WITE2!



smokindave34 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/3/2021 4:26:03 PM)

As someone who has two Axis games in progress this is a little concerning.....he managed to capture Leningrad and Sevastapol in '41 and yet had to concede? It seems as though his army is beaten down but I would think he would be able to get it back into fighting shape to make a game of it into '42. What am I missing?



karonagames -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/3/2021 9:56:28 PM)

The variance in the amount of attrition that the Axis can suffer with the the blizzard/first winter rules is quite significant, plus the fact that the Red Army can attack on a much wider front and for longer than they did historically, means the Axis can be ground down to a point that the spring recovery does not generate sufficient offensive power for 1942. I had solid blizzard from Mid-November to the end of March -14 turns, and was in the same position, feeling there was no option other than resigning.



Beethoven1 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/4/2021 1:14:47 AM)

It is a shame it had to end early, but congrats on a game well played.

One more question. In your screenshot from the last post, you seem to have a lot of depots behind your line in places that don't start out with railyards. Did you build them, or did Germany build them and then you recaptured them in winter?

I assume you would want to avoid doing that if at all possible, so that Germany would not capture them in '42 and then they end up helping German supply. So is it normal to have those depots, is it simply that there was no choice but to build them to get supply?



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/4/2021 1:47:07 AM)

The weather in this case was pretty average. Maybe two weeks of blizzard a month on average, maybe three in Dec and one in Mar. it wasn’t a freak 17 turn hellstorm.

As for depots, I tend to assume that every town of note will get a railyard in it after the lines solidify. And since the manpower intensive Red Army is also the supply intensive and unmotorized Red Army, you need a chain of depots following behind you to keep up the troop concentrations needed to break the Germans. And when they take them back to the rails will burn and they’ll probably damage the yards anyhow, so my functional hand over isn’t that great.

As for the assessment of the heer, I think Steve will be posting in the Axis thread.



Speedysteve -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/4/2021 7:32:56 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

As someone who has two Axis games in progress this is a little concerning.....he managed to capture Leningrad and Sevastapol in '41 and yet had to concede? It seems as though his army is beaten down but I would think he would be able to get it back into fighting shape to make a game of it into '42. What am I missing?


I'll post more details in Bobo's Axis AAR but there were 2 factors leading to 1 main consequence that led me to concede.

These were:

1.) The Axis seemingly attacked very aggressively to achieve as much 'victory' as possible.

2.) Supply/logistics situation - it was less than optimal (in my opinion).

The consequence of these was the depleted state of the Heer. The factors are totally interlinked to exacerbate the consequence. The last nail in the coffin, for my decision, was due to the state of the Heer and the operational situation going into Winter the Soviets launched a devastating counter-attack against over extended Axis units in mixed supply = a mass detrition of the Heer. You'll see in the above situation map the Soviet breakout towards Kiev. This is a prime example of the Axis situation. There were too few Ready Axis to prevent or stop this. To give you an idea of the Logistics challenge here too the nearest functioning railhead/depot is Kremenchug. There's no functioning Railhead or Depot available between Bryansk and Kremenchug. Now. Of course the Axis would have recovered the ground lost in the Kharkov breakout towards Kiev BUT it would have taken a couple of months to do that alone.

The last contributing factor to my concession is the ability to recover the Heer to mount even a moderate Summer 42 offensive. In short I don't think it would be possible. It's a snowball effect of the above factors. The Panzers are utterly depleted, too high a percentage of the Infantry are understrength and depleted = I'm not able to pull enough out of line to refit and recover as there's too many units needing this = units will remain weak and the Soviets can continue to attack worsening the situation = repeat ad infinitum[:)]

Last thing to note is these are just my observations of the current state of the Axis. Nothing to do with gameplay or choices made prior. Going for broke and an aggressive Axis campaign is a totally viable option. It's just that if it doesn't work the Axis will be over-extended with a potentially shaky logistics network to cope with[:)]

As I say I'll post screenshots of the final situation in Bobo's AAR for dissection.



karonagames -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/4/2021 10:05:18 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: GloriousRuse

As March 1942 came to a close, a small council of senior officers in OKH read the writing on the wall. They might have one more short season of victory, but the Heer could not knock Russia out of the war; the only question was how much Germany would have left to negotiate with when it ended...Valkyrie came early.

On T41, Speedy conceded the game (he'll cover the details in the axis post), on account of the Heer not being a viable force for a spring/summer offensive.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/YD0hcxm/EoGVP.jpg[/img]

On the face of it, 579 VP is not a horrible position to be in after the winter. The historical Germans were, after all, down somewhere in the 540s if we translate it. However, drop from 653 HWM represent more than just 74 points, it represents 40 points of potential lost forever (bonus trade offs and events), and sitting sub 600 with both Leningrad and Sevastopol in the bag. The path to 708 (the historical soviet HWM on January 1 1945, and hence a decent target for a minor or a draw) is arduous, and the path to 750 (decisive victory) would be intensely difficult to put together.

AGN has no more real potential, but has to stay strong enough if it doesn't want to lose Leningrad, AGC would be starting from Vyazma/Bryanks - only AGS would have its relative historical start position. A "perfect all +6" repeat of case blue would add 84 points...but would be unlikely given the need to retake several '41 (say 30 points for Kursk, Orel, Kharkov) cities to get there which would still only be 114 points - a few shy of the historical HWM of 697. It's either that or try to rip Moscow and the northern plains out of the hands of the strongest concentrations of the red army.

Already I think Steve could see it would take an astounding performance to stay in the fight.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/xMtSqPm/Eo-G-Front.jpg[/img]

And the Heer was not in shape to turn in an astounding performance.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/d6Wdgk9/EoGOOB.jpg[/img]

[img]https://i.ibb.co/Bf7GzLJ/Eo-GLosses.jpg[/img]


I would like to thank both of my opponents for playing the game well, generally historically, and as always avoiding exploits in the engine. The last is a matter of opinion, but I'm generally of the thought that in any massive undertaking there will be loose strings you can find and pull. Winning by yanking them as hard as possible might make you good at the game, but is it really what you want in a historical recreation of a war? The game is in my eyes much more enjoyable as a vehicle for that when you don't pull on those strings, and neither of my opponents did.

More to follow:

Analysis over time!

Where WITE2 and WITE1 differed in this game!

Soviet Deep Battle Doctrine in WITE2!

quote:

On the face of it, 579 VP is not a horrible position to be in after the winter. The historical Germans were, after all, down somewhere in the 540s if we translate it. However, drop from 653 HWM represent more than just 74 points, it represents 40 points of potential lost forever (bonus trade offs and events), and sitting sub 600 with both Leningrad and Sevastopol in the bag. The path to 708 (the historical soviet HWM on January 1 1945, and hence a decent target for a minor or a draw) is arduous, and the path to 750 (decisive victory) would be intensely difficult to put together.

AGN has no more real potential, but has to stay strong enough if it doesn't want to lose Leningrad, AGC would be starting from Vyazma/Bryanks - only AGS would have its relative historical start position. A "perfect all +6" repeat of case blue would add 84 points...but would be unlikely given the need to retake several '41 (say 30 points for Kursk, Orel, Kharkov) cities to get there which would still only be 114 points - a few shy of the historical HWM of 697. It's either that or try to rip Moscow and the northern plains out of the hands of the strongest concentrations of the red army.

Already I think Steve could see it would take an astounding performance to stay in the fight.


The above is a perfect encapsulation of the challenges faced by the Axis Players when playing the "meta" game of WITE2. It's not about where you finish 1941 in VPs, it's how many bonus VPs you can avoid losing during the first winter, which is a huge challenge, because the Orel/Kursk/Kharkhov/Stalino line was held historically on a front about 30miles/3 hexes east of the cities from December 1941 to April 1942, because the Soviets were unable to mount an offensive along that front. In the game, the Soviet player can mount an offensive that will take the 3 hexes and more, so the Axis player will face a bonus point swing of atleast 24bonus VPs that cannot be regained in 1942 because the start line will be further west.

Axis players must base their strategic planning on building a logistics network that will firstly support an offensive capable of gaining 60-90 bonus points before December 1941, and then prevent 24-30 bonus points from being lost during the first winter, and then have sufficient offensive power and a start line capable of gaining 90-100+ VPs in the summer of 1942.

Getting the balance between using FBDs as super depots to support offensives or to build the depot network needed to survive the first winter is extremely hard to achieve as this AAR clearly shows.



GloriousRuse -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/9/2021 1:17:39 AM)

End of Game Metrics

After some holiday delay, we're back and here to look at how the metrics over time reflect the game...or not.

Lets start with VP, because, well, they're VP and therefore a mix of both political/will success and a measurement of relative player performance.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/NKZRwFc/EoGVP.jpg[/img]

Here you can see an early surge to 511 as the "first wave" cities got taken. Those cities are almost guaranteed to fall, the real difference in VPs comes from just how fast the Germans can get them. 511 isn't flawless, but it's pretty close...other than a hold up near Smolensk and an extended defense near the southern Dnepr, almost every city was hit for maximum points or max feasible points. Bobo was moving damn fast. Still, that's not the killer. The killer is that the second wave cities, places like Kharkov, Stalino, and Orel where you can expect to either slow the Germans down in your chosen fronts or even get a stop or two, were all also exceedingly fast.

The most desperate situation can be seen in that peak at 657. Not only has Bobo secured all the "third wave" cities like Kalinin and Rostov, he'd added Sevastopol to the mix. We can see that fortunately the long term stand of Leningrad at least bought time for the winter offensive to force a '42 offensive aimed at VPs rather than given a nearly historical HWM starting point for '42 which would have let Bobo be as conservative or aggressive as he liked with no external pressure.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/D1YWJYG/Eo-GMenon-Map.jpg[/img]
[img]https://i.ibb.co/Kw869K3/EoGAFV.jpg[/img]

We can also see where that killing speed started to lay the seeds of it's own destruction. You can see the accelerated degradation of the Heer in the two charts above from August to early October. Those are directly a result of either paying the price for substantial numbers of attacks each week, outrunning supply, and getting hit with counterattacks that could take advantage of the hard fighting, under supplied lead elements.

As the game goes on, you can see the Red Army explodes back up from it's fearfully low state in October. Part of this is the natural result of a breather. The other part is that I made a conscious gamble - Bobo was clearly going to keep kicking me into touch all summer, and any troops I committed were going to bleed a disproportionately high per capita rate and he would still end up stopping on roughly the same line.

So I elected to keep a very large strategic reserve of manpower to complement the 500k stavka sets aside and put it all in to the winter, where I figured the worn down state of the Heer and his long lines would greatly assist. I'll also freely admit there was some Virtue out of Necessity going on there. That's why the growth from 2.8M to 4.2M looks so extreme in it's slope.

All of which appears to have worked. One of my winter goals was to keep the Heer in a permanent state of non-recovery from it's very expensive summer speed. I think the charts show some reasonable success in that area, particularly for AFV formations which routinely got singled out for attacks. The explosive potential of the heer can basically be seen in its tanks and it's trucks, so lots of effort went into minimizing that potential. Assuming we had continued fighting through March and parts of light mud season where victory had been achieved, I was reasonably sure I could keep the next couple month's of panzer production spent replacing weekly losses...

Combined with the infantry losses I was pretty confident I could close the time window on case Blue to a narrow band, both by forcing recovery time up front and depleting resources to prevent an extended campaign. I also had a dream of maybe retaining permanent imitative near Vyazma, creating a bleeding ulcer before a backhanded blow against the main effort, but that was firmly in dream territory and would have to have been very conditions based.

As a final note, you may notice a sharp dip down from the 4.6M peak of the Red Army. Most of those were divisions being sent to the rear for the formation of Gds Rifle Corps, or part of the planned major refits and re-establishment of a strategic reserve for the post-thaw period. In likelihood the final spring manpower dump and planned overhauls would have put the Red Army in the 5.1-5.2M range by the time Case Blue kicked off.

[img]https://i.ibb.co/LQ1c6Yh/Eo-GAircraft.jpg[/img]

And finally aircraft. Both sides sufferred relatively light air losses after the initial period, mainly due to low GS usage and then reached their organizational max potential. I know the soviets had a nice pool of modern aircraft building up, and I assume the Germans did the same. And while I certainly was getting pilot quality out of it, the Germans were also preserving theirs. We would really have had to go the distance to see if this paid out over time, but I am generally of the opinion that the fragility of the LW is over-stated. The great WA kill off and years of dying are what finally puts the boot in and determines maybe 3-5 months of retained aerial supremacy, not a few hundred pilots in '41.




squatter -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/9/2021 9:06:06 AM)

Like Smokindave, I’m surprised that a summer with a Leningrad capture can end with a winter Axis resignation.

Cutting to the chase, are we basically saying here that the Axis player badly mishandled the winter?

With a different winter strategy the axis position would still have been viable?



loki100 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/9/2021 10:42:14 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: squatter

Like Smokindave, I’m surprised that a summer with a Leningrad capture can end with a winter Axis resignation.

Cutting to the chase, are we basically saying here that the Axis player badly mishandled the winter?

With a different winter strategy the axis position would still have been viable?


I think that is too simplistic.

If you look at the axis thread you'll see the key table, there are something like 20 German infantry divisions < 30% TOE (& the Pzrs are equally battered). The manpower to refit is in Germany (most of the losses are temporary) but the challenge is to match the 2.

The only way to refit (even after the transport malus lifts in April) is unit on depot, and that is usually say 4-5 turns out of the line. But you can't now rotate as the axis player both needs to pull out too many to then leave a coherent front but if they are left they run the risk not just of routing but of that escalating to a shatter.

Now I've only got my own game vs Steven and 5 late winter saves that people have sent me to go by (& the public AARs) but I think there are some fairly hardwired lines on the map (I'm sure that greater or less attention to logistics make some difference). Crudely Volkhov-Vyazma-Orel-Stalino is suppliable. You'll take heavy losses but functioning depots can be close enough to allow you to manage the refit system. Volkhov-Kalinin-Borodino-Tula-Rostov is the fault line. On or east of that and you simply can't solve the logistics issue or manage the refit process.

But its interactive. Lets say you've reduced the Soviets to a shambles - well that advanced line is feasible simply as they can't take advantage. But as Tim makes clear, the Soviets here weren't a shambles, its a positively Stalin-esque approach to the front line formations while the forces for the winter offensive were gathereed together.

At that stage, the stop line becomes incredibly dangerous, you've paid the price of your high operating tempo, you're too far east to refit and your opponent suddenly has a huge army heading your way.



squatter -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/9/2021 11:52:35 AM)

Thanks Loki.

So, looking to take a condensed explanation of why the axis position became untenable in this case, are you saying:

Axis attempted to defend areas of the map that could not be sufficiently supplied during winter 41 and suffered crippling losses because of that? (A subset of “the axis player mishandled winter 41”)

I’m just hoping to distill whatever golden rule(s) that can be distilled from this example. You’re from Orkney, you will no doubt have a love of distilling too. :)



loki100 -> RE: Panzers vs The Bear: A WitE2 MP AAR (Soviet Perspective) (7/9/2021 12:01:27 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: squatter

Thanks Loki.

So, looking to take a condensed explanation of why the axis position became untenable in this case, are you saying:

Axis attempted to defend areas of the map that could not be sufficiently supplied during winter 41 and suffered crippling losses because of that? (A subset of “the axis player mishandled winter 41”)

I’m just hoping to distill whatever golden rule(s) that can be distilled from this example. You’re from Orkney, you will no doubt have a love of distilling too. :)


yes, I think its a 3 way trade off. If you go as far as Robert did (in this ignore Leningrad), you will stress your winter supply lines and open up a gap between losses and capacity to refit. If you've reduced the Red Army to a shambles, you can get away with this, if its still potent things can get nasty quickly. So I don't think you can supply Robert's defensive line, whether that matters is then down to the Soviet side.

the other side is stop where I had to (a botched Sept-Oct led to that), well yes you can cope with the winter, but its not at all clear what I can do come the summer.

and yep, between whisky and gin there is indeed a fair bit of distilling up here (we even declare and pay taxes on some of it [;)])

edit - what might have changed everything was if Robert had taken Leningrad more quickly. I realise that sounds incredibly picky as its quite the feat to have it at all, but I don't think he could weaken AGN while he completed that operation. If he could have reduced AGN to an infantry line on the Volkhov then he would have had a substantive operational reserve - thus probably solving the refit issue.



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