Week 53 (Full Version)

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M60A3TTS -> Week 53 (8/15/2021 10:24:54 PM)

Week 53 - 21 June 1941

Blau II - Voroshilovgrad Operational Area

Over the Donets

Weather dry and clear

The Germans committed their remaining mobile divisions and surrounded nine rifle divisions of 9th and 44th Armies of Southern Front. Over 93,000 men were trapped. This had the effect of opening the way to Stalingrad.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/1AZVUBC.jpg[/image]


Southern and North Caucasus Fronts initiated a complete pullback in the area in order to allow the Soviet response to begin unhindered.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/LMdFhtu.jpg[/image]


With no significant German tank reserves remaining, Stavka ordered the beginning of the Sumy-Desna Offensive Operation. This counterstroke was conducted by cavalry-tank forces under Eremenko's Bryansk Front and reinforced by Grechko's 3rd Shock and Batov's 31st Armies. The city of Sumy was liberated.

In the meantime, Vatutin's 3rd Reserve Army now led by I. Chernyakhovsky succeeded in reaching the eastern bank of the Donets.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/77FEegu.jpg[/image]


Weekly losses

[image]https://i.imgur.com/okWshos.jpg[/image]





erikbengtsson -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 6:06:03 AM)

Thanks for a great AAR, on towards Berlin! :)

When you create your Guards Corps, do you use three Guard Divisions, or two Guard and one regular? And why?



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 1:58:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: erikbengtsson

Thanks for a great AAR, on towards Berlin! :)

When you create your Guards Corps, do you use three Guard Divisions, or two Guard and one regular? And why?


Two guards divisions are all that is required for a guards corps so that is what I use. In June 1942 you can have a total of 42 rifle corps. The first two corps which can only be guards, are eligible in December 1941. That leaves 40 corps for which I plan on having in July. That meant going into blizzard my goal was to work towards 80 guards rifle divisions.

The game caps you at 11% guards infantry until July 1942 when that number expands. At that point I should have the units to make all 42 corps as guards rifle. At that time, Soviet NM also goes to 50, so with the +10 NM bonus, those corps with attachments can have quite an impact.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 2:04:23 PM)

Here is where I tracked my progress on wins for the rifle divisions that required 8 wins to become guards or guards eligible. I reached my target of 80 guards or guards eligible in early March, before the first winter ended.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/3nWxls1.jpg[/image]




tonyhnz -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 4:26:35 PM)

so if you have divisions eligible for guards but the cap is reached, they will switch to guards once the cap is relaxed ?



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 4:58:36 PM)

Up to the new cap limit, yes.



gingerbread -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 6:24:23 PM)

Why do you have Stavka away from Moscow and in a non-rail hex as well?



AlbertN -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 7:08:44 PM)

Probably to help with Leadership Tests since it is at a much shorter distance.
Or to enhance some depot massively in capacity for operations imminently (But then it needs to be on rail)
My assumption.




jubjub -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 7:15:20 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: AlbertN

Probably to help with Leadership Tests since it is at a much shorter distance.
Or to enhance some depot massively in capacity for operations imminently (But then it needs to be on rail)
My assumption.





High command HQ's don't affect depots.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 7:54:55 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: gingerbread

Why do you have Stavka away from Moscow and in a non-rail hex as well?


All I really use Stavka for is to take brigade sized units from the reserve and convert them into support units. Then the next turn they can be parceled out as needed.

I really don't use it for extra leadership rolls. A combination of good front and army commanders like Zhukov/Rokossovsky or Vatutin/Chernyakhovsky aren't going to fail a lot of leader rolls that Stavka might otherwise make.



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 53 (8/16/2021 7:55:22 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jubjub


quote:

ORIGINAL: AlbertN

Probably to help with Leadership Tests since it is at a much shorter distance.
Or to enhance some depot massively in capacity for operations imminently (But then it needs to be on rail)
My assumption.





High command HQ's don't affect depots.



True.



xhoel -> RE: Week 53 (8/17/2021 10:02:45 AM)

Fantastic offensive in the center and very nice to see the game incentivizing Axis players to keep armored reserves back like the Germans actually did in 42´ while also incentivizing Soviet players to prepare for offensives and counterattacks.



AlbertN -> RE: Week 53 (8/17/2021 11:59:32 AM)

I do not know the strenght of these Guard Units, but I suspect the Germans armoured reserves are quite meaningless in amount even if present against that might - unless we say Germans must be on the defensive in '42 all over the place.

What I am seeing in this AAR is pratically a non stop offensive of the Soviets from Winter '41 onward.
It will have to be seen if it is an isolated case or else - JubJub game in '42 seems different for now for instance.



M60A3TTS -> Week 54 (8/17/2021 4:08:48 PM)

Week 54 - 28 June 1942

Weather conditions remained clear and dry


Blau II continued

Voroshilovgrad Operational Area

German forces expanded their gains by expanding in a mainly northern direction. They reached the Don and took Boguchar. Only Rumanian units apparently were still in the area of Rostov.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/NxnJsyj.jpg[/image]


Kursk-Sumy Operational Area

A total of six German infantry divisions were surrounded between Sumy and Kursk.

Red Army Cavalry cut the rail line over the Desna near Makoshino. Tank corps captured other rail centers of Bogodukhov, Lokhvitsa, Bakmach and Konotop.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/3C7fqeV.jpg[/image]


Ground Losses

[image]https://i.imgur.com/0cqyKjz.jpg[/image]



M60A3TTS -> Week 55 (8/17/2021 4:42:10 PM)

Week 55 - 5 July 1942

Endgame


Dave played out his part of turn 55 and then conceded. I didn't bother playing out the turn. He had continued his work in the east near Boguchar although there didn't seem to be as much behind it.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/mNZL2Nj.jpg[/image]


He managed to isolate some lead units of mine west of Sumy. It is quite possible some would have been lost as rains had come to slow my rescue attempt.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/hfATioY.jpg[/image]


At the same time, to do this, he had pulled all his armor from Western Front. That would have signaled the resumption of the offensive there immediately.

[image]https://i.imgur.com/NNmnklh.jpg[/image]


OOB

[image]https://i.imgur.com/C8KiAnh.jpg[/image]

Other final numbers, on map I had:

21 guards rifle corps
37 guards rifle divisions
268 non-guards rifle divisions
16 guards tank corps
5 regular tank corps
13 guards cavalry corps
1 non-guards cavalry corps
49 army artillery regiments

With the VVS
2,364 fighters and fighter bombers in 140 air groups
954 tactical bombers in 48 air groups
1,756 level bombers in 88 air groups
199 recon planes in 15 air groups
139 transports in 7 air groups

2,846 trained pilots in the reserves.
Top ace (living) D. Pushkin of the 177 IAP flying a Yak-1 with 9 kills

Leaders with most victories
Meretskov (Stavka) 392
Eremenko (Bryansk Front) 207
Zhukov (Western Front) 206
Malinovsky (4th Shock Army) 100
Vatutin (SW Front) 95


I hope everyone got something out of the AAR and of course I want to thank Dave for being such a gamer. The experience factor clearly had an impact. When you have had the benefit of beta testing a game for two years, that provides a big advantage over someone just starting out. That and my countless hours spent with my micromanagement of this game and spreadsheets covering of every conceivable game aspect made things far more one-sided between the two of us than they have been in the past WiTE1 days. It's quite likely after seeing a game play out as this one did that calls for the Soviet nerf would not be far behind. But I have seen any number of games by HardLuckYetAgain, Tyronec, and now Roadwarrior where the Axis player can regularly roll their opponent in 1941. So the entire body of game work so far is probably a better indicator of balance than a few of us who are out on the edges.




Adronio -> RE: Week 55 (8/17/2021 9:47:40 PM)

This was very enjoyable to read. I can see why Dave threw in the towel, that counterattack put him in a gnarly catch-22 for sure. Very impressive that you managed to put together such a nasty Red Army in a years time, and despite being set up to possibly lose some of your exploitation assets I would not want to be on the German side of the brawl developing in Kursk-Sum, especially as you started escalating elsewhere.



AlbertN -> RE: Week 55 (8/17/2021 9:58:10 PM)

I am indeed following the AAR of HYLA vs JJ after I've read this one.

Definitely of the opinion the Soviets are far too operational by '42 no matter what (Even a just adjustment of how many Guard Units at max they can have for the date is a start).




Adronio -> RE: Week 55 (8/17/2021 10:11:35 PM)

Not sure I agree with that. This seems very much to have been one of the worst case scenarios for the Axis apart from getting wrecked so har din winter 1941/1942 that they can't manage to scrape together a panzerball. The operation M60A3TTS does not seem far fetched at all when it comes to scale, it's just the success that's most impressive there.



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 12:37:44 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: M60A3TTS


It's quite likely after seeing a game play out as this one did that calls for the Soviet nerf would not be far behind. But I have seen any number of games by HardLuckYetAgain, Tyronec, and now Roadwarrior where the Axis player can regularly roll their opponent in 1941. So the entire body of game work so far is probably a better indicator of balance than a few of us who are out on the edges.




I first want to say congrats for sticking in there to Dave. He took on a game where he just started learning and played a seasoned player of WITE2. Dave did really well learning while playing. M60 you really have stepped up your game :-) Grats!

Tyronec and Roadwarrior are far better players than me & I believe Tyronec said it the best on the current state of the game. I can only parapharse it but went something on the line of, "if you don't take the Soviet out in 41 early 42 then the Soviets will grow massive and Germany will die in 44". Of course Tyronec put it much more elegantly.

I do think that the game does favor the Soviets. But it isn't that bad at the moment, I think...




erikbengtsson -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 10:09:49 AM)

M60,

Thank you for a very interesting tale, and what a detailed lesson in running the Red Army!

Question: Did you create all those Army Artillery Regiments with adminstrative points? If so, why are they worth creating versus keeping older regiments and getting their TOE up?



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 10:31:54 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: erikbengtsson

M60,

Thank you for a very interesting tale, and what a detailed lesson in running the Red Army!

Question: Did you create all those Army Artillery Regiments with adminstrative points? If so, why are they worth creating versus keeping older regiments and getting their TOE up?



I'm glad you enjoyed this AAR.

I did created those support units that cost 1 admin point each. They are worth creating because many artillery SUs are either smaller than the 36 guns of the Army Artillery Regiment or shrink in numbers as they are "upgraded" over time. This type regiment in particular has no upgrade path so it always stays at 36 guns. Also, the ML-20 152mm gun howitzer I believe to be the best artillery piece in the Soviet arsenal. It's often near the top of the Soviet artillery weapons having the most number of destroyed/damaged/suppressed ground elements in battle. The limited production of 20 guns per week is the only real drawback.



erikbengtsson -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 11:14:45 AM)

Thank you for your answer!

But wouldn't you be able to get the same number of ML-20's to the front lines, along with other guns, by allocating more of the other ART SU's to Armies rather than creating new ones?



M60A3TTS -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 2:20:38 PM)

I'm not sure I understand your question, but where there are 36 of these guns in a regiment, if 3 SUs are committed to a battle, then 108 of these guns are firing. If I take a support unit that has 12 of these guns and 24 122mm howitzers, than the same three units only give me 36 of the 152mm guns firing. The other 72 guns firing that are 122mm I don't care so much about.

Also, the ML-20 is not organic to divisional units, so there is no competition for this gun as a resource. The 122mm gun however, is organic so you have to hope enough guns are available for the unit. So the 122mm gun SUs will find their way to other armies, they just won't be under Assault HQs.



erikbengtsson -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 2:24:52 PM)

Now I get it, thank you for the explanation.

By the way, I would love to see a game between you and HLYA. :)



Q-Ball -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 3:32:36 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

Tyronec and Roadwarrior are far better players than me & I believe Tyronec said it the best on the current state of the game. I can only parapharse it but went something on the line of, "if you don't take the Soviet out in 41 early 42 then the Soviets will grow massive and Germany will die in 44". Of course Tyronec put it much more elegantly.

I do think that the game does favor the Soviets. But it isn't that bad at the moment, I think...



I think this is an excellent point, and I am coming to agree with this. I am about to start a Stal to Berlin as Germany vs. a good opponent (Speedysteve) and I expect to get quashed. In testing I played the other side vs. Loki, and by early '44 was rolling toward Romania.

I don't think the solution is necessarily to help the Germans in '41 take out the Soviet Union, but rather some later help for the Germans....not sure how, since 1943 turns into a feedback loop where Soviets win, increase morale, get stronger, while Germans constantly doing the opposite.

I really don't know the cure......the game certainly favors a supplied attacker, especially in clear terrain



erikbengtsson -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 4:50:52 PM)

To paraphrase what someone said in another thread; if this game didn't produce an operational situation where Germany are certain to lose unless they manage something unlikely and decisive in 41, it wouldn't even be a semi accurate simulation.

Historically it can be argued that Germany lost the war, not after the winter of 42 or the summer of 43, but on June 22nd 1941.

In my opinion the great challenge for any German player is to produce a situation in 41 where a victory in 42 is possible, but that is very unlikely. After that it is about trying to do better defensively than historically, which is quite a challenge as well. I am sorry to see so few (any?) German players taking on that latter challenge.

For the Soviet player it is much easier. Time and space is squarely on the Soviet side.

Look at the devastating mistakes Stalin and Stavka commited for years. A Soviet player that bypasses them, guided by historical hindsight, should easily win the war earlier than May 1945. "It wouldn't even be a semi accurate simulation otherwise".



smokindave34 -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 5:03:40 PM)

Thank you M60 for the game....and to think I waited 3 years for this [:(]

A few thoughts from my perspective on our game. First M60 is a master at building the Red Army. I severely underestimated his capacity in summer '42. I was still in a WITE1 mindset where I thought I could push around the Soviets whenever and wherever I wanted. Even when he managed the breakthrough I initially didn't take it seriously enough and thought I'd easily cut off his troops and it would end with me encircling some of his best units. What I didn't recognize was that he had VERY strong units, many of which were armor, and I quickly realized I couldn't fight thru to rescue my surrounded units.

M60 also did an excellent job of being aggressive yet not exposing his units to encirclement. I didn't inflict nearly as many casualties as I needed.

For new Axis players here is what I messed up:
1) I didn't build nearly enough depots. I thought having large depots would be enough but clearly you need L1 depots near the front to save on trucks. My supply situation cratered near the end of the "blitzkrieg"
2) I didn't effectively manage CPP and didn't have units with high CPP when I needed to do some heavy hitting
3) If I had to do it again I wouldn't have went so strongly after Sevastapol. The 30VP was a great incentive but I would have been better off inflicting more damage on the Red Army.
4) I sent a lot of my panzers to reserve once they got knocked around during the blizzard. I wouldn't do it again. Sure they refit quickly but they shed all their trucks and I still needed 3 weeks once they came back to the map to get them in fighting shape. Just park them on refit on a large depot.

Well done M60! I reserve the right for your first official match for WITE3 (or War in Europe....)



HardLuckYetAgain -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 6:39:00 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Q-Ball


quote:

ORIGINAL: HardLuckYetAgain

Tyronec and Roadwarrior are far better players than me & I believe Tyronec said it the best on the current state of the game. I can only parapharse it but went something on the line of, "if you don't take the Soviet out in 41 early 42 then the Soviets will grow massive and Germany will die in 44". Of course Tyronec put it much more elegantly.

I do think that the game does favor the Soviets. But it isn't that bad at the moment, I think...



I think this is an excellent point, and I am coming to agree with this. I am about to start a Stal to Berlin as Germany vs. a good opponent (Speedysteve) and I expect to get quashed. In testing I played the other side vs. Loki, and by early '44 was rolling toward Romania.

I don't think the solution is necessarily to help the Germans in '41 take out the Soviet Union, but rather some later help for the Germans....not sure how, since 1943 turns into a feedback loop where Soviets win, increase morale, get stronger, while Germans constantly doing the opposite.

I really don't know the cure......the game certainly favors a supplied attacker, especially in clear terrain


The crux is the casualty rate to the Soviets. The Soviets can control the flow in 41 with retreat & retreat and retreat. The Germans are hard pressed to do anything about it if the Soviets retreat correctly. To have a chance the Germans have to surround then force surrender many many Soviets and it isnt going to happen in WITE2. By the time the Germans get to a Soviet line the units are rested, with good leaders, well supplied. Thus when the germans do attack the casualties are way low and Soviets retreat from a combat with minimial losses. Then during their turn the Soviets just rotate out the Divisions that got hit for a rest. I saw this and was no way I was going to play the Soviets again in WITE2 and decided to end a game before even getting started when I came back this month. I like a challenge and thus went back fully to the German side. On top of that my game is a no early end which will be "Hell on Earth" for me to even survive til 1944. I don't think it can be done as Germany. But that is just me looking into my crystal ball.

Don't even get me started on the free AP's given tot he Soviets by mid 1943. 1500 AP is a very large number of AP to do anything with. If you are going to give APs then subdivide the gifted AP where you have the normal AP you get a turn then break it down to what it was given for and only can be used for it. Thus the AP for Cav should only be used to purchase Cav & not build a whole bunch of forts instead.



Rosencrantus -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 6:46:04 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: smokindave34

Thank you M60 for the game....and to think I waited 3 years for this [:(]

A few thoughts from my perspective on our game. First M60 is a master at building the Red Army. I severely underestimated his capacity in summer '42. I was still in a WITE1 mindset where I thought I could push around the Soviets whenever and wherever I wanted. Even when he managed the breakthrough I initially didn't take it seriously enough and thought I'd easily cut off his troops and it would end with me encircling some of his best units. What I didn't recognize was that he had VERY strong units, many of which were armor, and I quickly realized I couldn't fight thru to rescue my surrounded units.

M60 also did an excellent job of being aggressive yet not exposing his units to encirclement. I didn't inflict nearly as many casualties as I needed.

For new Axis players here is what I messed up:
1) I didn't build nearly enough depots. I thought having large depots would be enough but clearly you need L1 depots near the front to save on trucks. My supply situation cratered near the end of the "blitzkrieg"
2) I didn't effectively manage CPP and didn't have units with high CPP when I needed to do some heavy hitting
3) If I had to do it again I wouldn't have went so strongly after Sevastapol. The 30VP was a great incentive but I would have been better off inflicting more damage on the Red Army.
4) I sent a lot of my panzers to reserve once they got knocked around during the blizzard. I wouldn't do it again. Sure they refit quickly but they shed all their trucks and I still needed 3 weeks once they came back to the map to get them in fighting shape. Just park them on refit on a large depot.

Well done M60! I reserve the right for your first official match for WITE3 (or War in Europe....)


Yep, I think managing CPP is the most important thing for the axis in 41. They get 6 assault army slots while already having 4 filled. Converting 2 extra armies to assault as soon as possible is critical for the axis to maintain a quick advance in 41. Of course there are times when you should deactivate the assault armies but I have a game going against tyronec and bitburger where I believe the assault armies will begin to pay dividends once the game goes on.



AlbertN -> RE: Week 55 (8/18/2021 8:44:13 PM)

I agree deeply with Hyla above.

In more than one game I quickly faced Soviets that were super prepared in CPP (Which as force multiplier benefits them a lot due to many units - and in the way CPP are spent).
The '41 WAll of Soviets was already amazing - and at the first battering Soviets take they can just slip slightly away, maybe sacrifice 1-2 hexes of division(s) and reshape a sturdy line.
Germans wasted their CPP to achieve that little.



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