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Kevinugly -> (8/26/2003 9:32:00 PM)
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[QUOTE=HMSWarspite]The thing with Midway that never gets mentioned is this: If you run May/June 1942 100 times (in RL using some sort of alternative universes), how often does Midway happen with a 4:1 result? People cite it as if it was inevitable, and hence any game that doesn't have it happening regularly is flawed. Even with the Allied strategic advantage, I think Midway was a 1 in lots (don't know how many, more than 10, less than 1000) event. There are many points where tiny (and entirely plausible) changes can affect things. IJN doesn't rearm for 2nd Midway strike, USN doesn't get strikes split in just the right way for unopposed DB attack, weather, search planes etc etc. I think the 'normal' Midway might be 2:2, or maybe 2:1 (pro US), but could easily be 1:2 (or 3) pro IJN. I thing the system should reflect this, say 80% of all Midways come out in the range 3:1>2:2>1:2, with less than 20% (total) coming out 4:0, 4:1, or 0:3, etc. Thus 80% of battles 'wouldn't do Midway properly, a further say 10% do it wrong (IJN wins), and 10% or less get close to the real thing. I do hope WitP is like this!
The thing about Midway is it accelerated the inevitable loss of IJN carriers, the IJN cannot afford to lose fleet carriers full stop, USN ones only set the timing of the war, not the result.[/QUOTE]
I voted 'never can tell'. But with reference to the above, there is an excellent book 'Why the Allies Won' by Richard Overy which attempts to explode the myth that Allied victory in WW2 was inevitable. Includes a section on Midway - an American victory because they happened to have a few bombers attacking successfully at a fortuitous moment.
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