[WAD - AI at 120 effects]Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (Full Version)

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jlbhung -> [WAD - AI at 120 effects]Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 8:26:07 AM)

The drastic CV reduction of the defender in the 3 battles shown do not appear to be in order. I made a rough estimation in a spreadsheet. I have included all modifiers I am aware of and there are still large discrepancies. Is the combat engine working properly? or did I miss some other modifiers?

I have not included the vehicle modifier because I think it does not apply to defender (anyway the impact is very little as the vehicle#/needs figures are 1103/1295, 79/60 and 1586/1300 respectively for the defender in the 3 battles). The ground condition and weather are clear so no modifier is applicable.

Save files before and after the battles will be included in the next post.

[image]local://upfiles/78787/F0A4B0FB13754B07A04E9BC06F74CA5E.jpg[/image]

[Edit: image revised to correct some calculation errors]



jlbhung -> RE: Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 8:30:08 AM)

Save files.



loki100 -> RE: Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 9:51:23 AM)

I'd say WAD for a couple of reasons. One is relatively low morale/low experience formations are vulnerable to catastrophic loss of elements, it can be more disrupted than actually destroyed. Linked to this a unit can appear strong but run low on combat elements - you can see this on the axis side where a formation with what looks like quite a lot of men is very short on infantry/tank elements.

Beyond that there is a routine where a unit that is losing badly is vulnerable to escalating losses - see 23.12 where this rule can kick in:

quote:

A combat unit that is in supply and forced to retreat will rout at the conclusion of combat if the final combat value odds ratio is greater than the morale of the unit. For example, at the conclusion of a battle, a unit with morale of forty will rout if the attacker’s adjusted CV is greater than forty times the defender’s adjusted CV. The exception is that if a unit has a valid hex to retreat to, then it will not be susceptible to a rout as long as it passes a check where the unit Morale is greater than or equal to 40+Die (15).


this is actually important as it makes notionally strong low morale formations very vulnerable if they get hit hard.

edit: to your questions in your spreadsheet, yes lack of fuel or ammo influences the starting cv. 23.8.3/4 lists all the at-start factors and 23.8.5-7 those that come into play during the actual combat



jlbhung -> RE: Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 11:44:08 AM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: loki100

I'd say WAD for a couple of reasons. One is relatively low morale/low experience formations are vulnerable to catastrophic loss of elements, it can be more disrupted than actually destroyed ...



I am aware of the potential catastrophic loss of elements. But in the calculations shown all the loss (before retreat loss) has already been taken into account. In fact in the save file, there are other examples of drastic drop of CV. I have not selected those because I made calculations and found that their drop can be accounted for by the catastrophic loss you mentioned. I raised questions on the three examples exactly because the loss is not significant and cannot account for the drop in the final CV as shown in the calculation.

quote:



Beyond that there is a routine where a unit that is losing badly is vulnerable to escalating losses - see 23.12 ...


But I think the additional loss is applied after the battle, i.e. after retreat or rout is determined by the CV comparison. My question is on the final CV value of the defender used in the CV comparison to determine the battle result, i.e. before the additional loss.

quote:


edit: to your questions in your spreadsheet, yes lack of fuel or ammo influences the starting cv. 23.8.3/4 lists all the at-start factors and 23.8.5-7 those that come into play during the actual combat


In this case the est. CV value in my calculation for battle 2 needs not apply the x0.85 ammo modifier because the modifier had already reflected in the initial CV. This makes the discrepancy of my est final CV and the actual final CV even larger.

I am aware that there is also the possibility that inexperienced elements may not be committed to battle but from the Manual I am not clear about the potential impact (i.e. it affects whether elements firing only, or affects no. of elements in final CV calculation). But even assume there is another 50% decrease in CV, it still cannot explain the huge discrepancies in the estimated and actual final CV as shown in the 3 examples.

I am worried that if I have not missed any other factors in the calculation, then it may really be possible that the combat engine is not working as designed in some occasions.





loki100 -> RE: Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 1:27:56 PM)

other question, is the AI on 120?

if so the factors set out in 30.7.1 applies. If I recall it has this advantage up to Oct 41 and then May-Oct 42 and in combination with low morale Soviet formations can be devastating. The fun side (& it does give you a good game) is the lost formations starts to come into line with what a competent axis player will do via pockets



jlbhung -> RE: Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 2:18:33 PM)

Yes, I am playing vs Axis AI on 120 for the Road to Leningrad Scenario. With increased disruptions from 30.7.1 there are comparatively more occasions of big loss, sometimes 90% of elements were kept out from final CV calculation as a result of combat. Those cases really deserve drastic drop in defender CV.

On the other hand, some cases with 20-50% loss in ready elements but >97.5% loss in CV puzzle me (like those examples I set out). Therefore I try to work out all the contributing factors but my calculations as shown above did not tally with the actual drop in CV. Nevertheless, the devs know more about the calculations. There may also be undocumented rules. Of course, there is always the possibility of a bug for software.



loki100 -> RE: Is the Combat Engine working properly...or did I miss something? (6/18/2021 2:25:13 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: jlbhung

Yes, I am playing vs Axis AI on 120 for the Road to Leningrad Scenario. With increased disruptions from 30.7.1 there are comparatively more occasions of big loss, sometimes 90% of elements were kept out from final CV calculation as a result of combat. Those cases really deserve drastic drop in defender CV.

On the other hand, some cases with 20-50% loss in ready elements but >97.5% loss in CV puzzle me (like those examples I set out). Therefore I try to work out all the contributing factors but my calculations as shown above did not tally with the actual drop in CV. Nevertheless, the devs know more about the calculations. There may also be undocumented rules. Of course, there is always the possibility of a bug for software.



ah thats the answer. What happens at 120 is the battle is resolved normally, if that normal battle produces a Soviet defeat then their losses escalate.

run a battle at speed #2 and you'll see this, the Soviets lose with (for them) normal losses and then the formation gets shredded as the extra losses mount up.

as above it sort of compensates the AI, it doesn't make many pockets but there is a need to destroy a certain number of Soviet formations in order to keep up the momentum. Its actually been toned down since testing where a number of us referred to it as the AI's tactical nukes [8D]

More to point, you are not misunderstanding anything in your analysis of the combat engine

Roger



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