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rkr1958 -> RE: 6-Player Friendly PBEM Global War (8/1/2021 8:42:41 PM)
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Turn 6. Jul/Aug 1940. Western Front. Axis #1. Bordeaux to Bayonne Corridor. Axis Wargaming. Raw Data.
1. The German and Italian players analyzed/wargamed 4 scenarios for "possibly" breaching and attacking the CW MIL in Bordeaux.
2. The max units that the axis could bring to bear in a land combat was 3, which if they rolled the magical 14 (assuming) assault would result in the loss of all three attackers.
3. Four axis land units (2 German & 2 Italian) were considered for this analysis. They were: (1) German 7-5 mech worth 5 BPs, (2) German 2-5 mot div worth 2 BPs, (3) Italian 5-4 MTN corps worth 4 BPs and (4) an Italian 5-(2)-3 HQ-A worth 8 BPs.
4. Two land unit configurations were considered: (1) w/o HQ=2-4 mot div, 5-4 Italian MTN & 7-5 German Mech totaling 14 factors & (2) w/HQ=2-4 mot div, 7-5 German mech & 5-(2)-3 Italian HQ-A also totals 14 land factors.
5. For these two land unit configurations losses would be taken in order listed and would "cost", respectively, for 0, 1, 2 & 3 units loss: (1) 0, 2, 6 & 11 and (2) 0, 2, 7 & 15.
6. German had F/B w/3 TAC and FTR2 w/no TAC and 5 air-to-air that would/could be committed. Note that since Bordeaux is woods that ground support factors would be halved.
7. The CW had 3 planes, 2 of which would have to fly extended range, in position to provide defensive ground support. They also had a Nimrod CVP with 2 air-to-air factors that could fly coverage. Max number of ground support factors that the CW could commit after halving or quartering as appropriate was 3.
6. The four scenarios considered were:
(a) w/o HQ & Max CW Air=axis land unit configuration 2 (i.e., Italian HQ-A not included) and max air effort by the CW.
(b) w/o HQ & no CW Air=axis land unit configuration 2 (i.e., Italian HQ-A not included) and no air effort by the CW.
(c) w HQ & Max CW Air=axis land unit configuration 1 (i.e., Italian HQ-A included) and max air effort by the CW.
(d) w HQ & no CW Air=axis land unit configuration 1 (i.e., Italian HQ-A included) and no air effort by the CW.
7. Since modeling the air battle (scenarios (a) & (c) w/max CW air effort) were too darn hard, at least for us, to model probabilistic I agreed to monte carlo them in MWiF and run 10 air-to-air combat trials.
8. The results for each of those 10 trails applied to both the w/o HQ & w/ HQ scenarios (i.e., (a) & (c)) are shown as well as the average across the 10.
9. German GSPT=# of German ground support factors that got through the air-to-air. German air losses=# of BPs of air units lost (none in any of the trials). CW GSPT=amount of defensive ground support that go through. CW Air Losses=# of BPs of air units lost.
10. The basic odds were: (14/5)2 - 1 (city) - 1 (German/Italian combat friction) - 1 (Defensive HQ support Gort HQ-I) = 2.6.
11. These odds were modified by offensive (2 max) & defensive (3 max) ground support and offensive HQ support(+1) as applicable.
12. The top four, color coded lines are the averages for each of the 4 scenarios considered.
[image]local://upfiles/31901/2706D07A8CA44142A038067B0CE1CF12.jpg[/image]
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