RE: Balancing update... (Full Version)

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The Land -> RE: Balancing update... (1/12/2022 9:58:31 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: BillRunacre

Sounds good!


Thank you!

Not so much happening this week as the rest of life is busier. However if anyone out there is playing the alpha I'd be interested in your feedback!



The Land -> The Southern front, part 1 (1/16/2022 10:53:19 AM)

So recently I have been working on the Southern Front.

As you probably know, Turkey and Greece were both NATO members - with a land border to Warsaw Pack Bulgaria to the North.

It is uncertain how intense the conflict on this front would have been in the event of all-out war. Researching the OOBs on both sides, it seems that both sides were content to put second, third and fourth-rate equipment into the front lines. These were relatively poor countries, who bought much cast-off equipment from the superpowers. In 1985 for instance the Turkish Army's main battle tank was the M47 Patton, a tank which the USA considered inadequate at the time of the Korean War.

So why care about this theatre at all? Well, first I would like to have at least something happening on the 'south flank' of the scenario.

Secondly, the Turkish Straits were of great strategic significance. Much of Russian foreign policy since the time of Peter the Great was about gaining access to the Mediterranean from the Black Sea. (In fact control of the Straits was part of the deal that the Entente offered Russia to remain in WW1, resulting in the doomed Gallipoli landings...) The Soviet Union would have loved to have free access through the Straits, possibly also with a long lease of a naval base somewhere like Smyrna.

In the context of a war in Germany this objective would be very much secondary. But it was still an objective. Which makes it, to my mind, a valid strategic option for the Soviet player. If Turkey had been knocked out of the war, that would doubtless have an impact on the West's willingness to continue, and the shape of any negotiated peace. There is of course also the Russian Black Sea fleet and its ability to come out of the Black Sea and cause problems for NATO supply lines in the Mediterranean.

So here is the Bulgarian front as set up, with its many indifferent units on both sides. If the Soviets commit some of their high-quality reserve units here then I expect them to make a lot of progress, despite the poor terrain. But that will come at the cost of progress on the Western Front. The NM payoff for taking Istanbul will have to be carefully calibrated in the balancing of the scenario.

And to the west you will notice Yugoslavia is currently neutral and empty... more on that later!

[image]local://upfiles/34115/30AE2FEC26934678B109E8B18EFE0CF9.jpg[/image]



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/16/2022 10:18:08 PM)

Ha, no. The Turks are falling apart faster Boris Johnson's credibility I'll need to strengthen them with either tech or fortifications... possibly both.

(What *would* have stopped a Soviet armoured division equipped with T-80s, BMP-2s and Hind helicopters, and supported by the Bulgarians and Romanians on its flanks and rear, from taking Istanbul in a week? Anyone got any ideas?)



El_Condoro -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/17/2022 2:23:25 AM)

I am no historian of 1980s Cold War military strategy, but maybe the same sorts of things that are making Putin hesitate against Ukraine now: economic considerations, political manouevres, the uncertain allegiance of allies (soviet satellites), risk of civil unrest. 1985 was the era of glasnost and perstroika, IIRC, so maybe Mikhail Gorbachev is agitating against military operations in the south. It would all need to be approximated with supply.txt, strength.txt and other scripts, maybe some redeployments by DE? Just some stream-of-consciousness stuff here.



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/17/2022 8:20:01 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: El_Condoro

I am no historian of 1980s Cold War military strategy, but maybe the same sorts of things that are making Putin hesitate against Ukraine now: economic considerations, political manouevres, the uncertain allegiance of allies (soviet satellites), risk of civil unrest. 1985 was the era of glasnost and perstroika, IIRC, so maybe Mikhail Gorbachev is agitating against military operations in the south. It would all need to be approximated with supply.txt, strength.txt and other scripts, maybe some redeployments by DE? Just some stream-of-consciousness stuff here.


All great thoughts... but not for this particular question... ;)

In the book "The Third World War" it's really clear that both sides are trying to hold off the total political collapse of their coalitions - in a situation of immense casualties and the terrifying threat of nuclear war. So both sides will have NM that is fragile and falling. This will be particularly true of the Warsaw Pact (which, let's not forget, were mainly under military occupation). Events where there is a Polish general strike or another attempted Hungarian revolution are definitely in the plan (along with Western equivalents..)

And you're right, it was ultimately political and strategic constraints (and of course the likelihood of US retaliation) that stopped the USSR trying to force Turkey into being a client state historically.

But... here, the setup is that there's a general European war, with a Turkish front, and the political collapse of the Warsaw Pact is a future possibility. So I need to find a military reason to make this particular offensive more difficult.....



Taxman66 -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/17/2022 1:56:24 PM)

Maybe Istanbul does fall rather quickly, but a massive amount of aid (better equipment) would be delivered quickly.
I think Israel was on good terms with Turkey at this time too. They would badly not want to see Turkey fall either.



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/17/2022 4:40:35 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Maybe Istanbul does fall rather quickly, but a massive amount of aid (better equipment) would be delivered quickly.
I think Israel was on good terms with Turkey at this time too. They would badly not want to see Turkey fall either.


Yes - could take some inspiration from the "US tanks arrive in Egypt" event in the core campaigns - have some shipments of upgraded armour / aircraft arrive in Turkey. Possibly some US troops redeployed from the Indian Ocean / Pacific as well (they must have had some Marines floating around waiting for something to do, right?)



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/18/2022 8:21:15 AM)

Ah, I think I've got it.

So far I've not accounted for the US's strategic reserve formations. 82nd Airborne, 101st Airborne, 9th Infantry and 10th Infantry (Light). These were all capable of being airlifted around the world - and none were entirely suited to Central Europe as they lacked heavy armour. One, or more, of them could readily have been sent to stiffen the Turks.

(Also the fact they were airmobile makes them quite appropriate for event-deployment).



Taxman66 -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/18/2022 11:25:50 AM)

Air support and 'advisers' could also be deployed from Israel rather quickly too.



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/18/2022 12:16:26 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Air support and 'advisers' could also be deployed from Israel rather quickly too.


Doubtless!

Do you have any more info on the relationship between Turkey and Israel in this period? I can find a bit (basically, they had a shared enemy in Syria and a shared ally in the USA, and the Turks also wanted to enlist Israeli help in stopping the Armenian lobby having too much of a voice in the USA) - but not much about military / strategy cooperation.

At the moment I'm thinking of possibly having an Israeli 'volunteer' tank brigade show up in Turkey - even if Israel was inclined to intervene, it wouldn't want to do anything that would make it a proper belligerent in the eyes of the USSR, or weaken its own forces so much that Arab states wished to invade.



Taxman66 -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/18/2022 1:01:59 PM)

Not specifically, just going off memory.

Well, I highly doubt they would send ground troops on such a scale. Advisors yes, a whole unit worth very, very unlikely. Maybe more than advisors, but mostly logistical help/ground troops. Perhaps some SAMs. I could also see some naval help maybe to make leaving the straights painful. Israel has some subs and nasty light/fast missile boats.
They would have sent equipment and armaments (provided the US promised to help replace & pay for such).
I'm sure air operations, based from Israel, would have run and I could also possibly see an air unit being deployed to Turkey (maybe 2? in the east and 1 in the west).
Remember at the time Israel was considered to have the best (equal to US training & equipment + more combat experience) pilots/air force (in a jet for jet comparison) in the world.

Other event options:
Fighter/Bomber Air strikes against Soviet/Warsaw Pack units in Turkey (with an Emphasis against air units).
Perhaps an instant tech upgrade? Would that be doable by event? I suppose it could be done by removing a unit and providing the same unit with tech upgrades if you had to.



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/18/2022 1:39:29 PM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: Taxman66

Not specifically, just going off memory.

Well, I highly doubt they would send ground troops on such a scale. Advisors yes, a whole unit worth very, very unlikely. Maybe more than advisors, but mostly logistical help/ground troops. Perhaps some SAMs. I could also see some naval help maybe to make leaving the straights painful. Israel has some subs and nasty light/fast missile boats.
They would have sent equipment and armaments (provided the US promised to help replace & pay for such).


Interesting thoughts - thanks!

The problem with sending equipment is that on the timescales of the scenario - 3 day turns and a month for the whole thing - the Turks would have a problem integrating it. Maybe relatively straightforward things like MANPADs and ATGM but, even in an emergency, how long does it take for a tank crew used to an M47 Patton to switch over to a Merkava? Hence my thought about 'volunteer' land units.

quote:


I'm sure air operations, based from Israel, would have run and I could also possibly see an air unit being deployed to Turkey (maybe 2? in the east and 1 in the west).
Remember at the time Israel was considered to have the best (equal to US training & equipment + more combat experience) pilots/air force (in a jet for jet comparison) in the world.

Other event options:
Fighter/Bomber Air strikes against Soviet/Warsaw Pack units in Turkey (with an Emphasis against air units).
Perhaps an instant tech upgrade? Would that be doable by event? I suppose it could be done by removing a unit and providing the same unit with tech upgrades if you had to.


Tech upgrades are a pain to do via event - spawning a new unit is much simpler.

Air reinforcements would definitely be possible (from Israel, or the USA itself).



El_Condoro -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/18/2022 9:09:41 PM)

quote:

Tech upgrades are a pain to do via event


Is it even possible? If so, I'd be interested to know how because it's one thing I'd like to see in the Editor.



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/19/2022 8:35:20 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: El_Condoro

quote:

Tech upgrades are a pain to do via event


Is it even possible? If so, I'd be interested to know how because it's one thing I'd like to see in the Editor.


Not really. You can't change a unit by event except to damage it. I think you'd have to destroy whatever unit is in a specific position and replace it with another unit arriving with full tech. I don't know if the triggers are flexible enough to say "only fire this event if there is a Turkish mechanized division in Istanbul" but even if they are then it still requires the unit to actually be in the right place.



El_Condoro -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/19/2022 8:59:07 AM)

Yeah, that's what I thought. BTW some scripts will allow a condition check like the one you describe:

Strength.txt
; If #CONDITION_POSITION has an added <unit_id, ...> then it will only consider the specified UNIT_ID types, e.g.
; Axis have an Army or Tank unit within 10 hexes of Warsaw
; #CONDITION_POSITION= 188,76 [10,10] [1,1] [1] [0] <5,26>



The Land -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/19/2022 9:13:10 AM)


quote:

ORIGINAL: El_Condoro

Yeah, that's what I thought. BTW some scripts will allow a condition check like the one you describe:

Strength.txt
; If #CONDITION_POSITION has an added <unit_id, ...> then it will only consider the specified UNIT_ID types, e.g.
; Axis have an Army or Tank unit within 10 hexes of Warsaw
; #CONDITION_POSITION= 188,76 [10,10] [1,1] [1] [0] <5,26>


Yeah... it's all a bit of a bodge, though, so I'd prefer to avoid it. Might as well just create another unit, particularly if the one that would be 'upgraded' is so weak that it'd inevitably be destroyed!



dhucul2011 -> RE: The Southern front, part 1 (1/21/2022 8:20:30 PM)

I remember reading some publications about the WPs strategy in a war in the 1980s. They stated that Romania and Bulgaria would not provide direct support to the effort. They would be expected to only defend the Southern flank

Maybe make these two at 80% mobilization. This would then protect Istanbul somewhat unless the USSR used diplomacy to get them to activate.

Events could also affect this if US units showed up in Turkey etc.



The Land -> The Southern Front, part 2 (1/23/2022 12:33:19 PM)

So the second part of the Southern Front is Yugoslavia and Italy.

Yugoslavia was a "non-aligned" country which, while Communist, never joined the Warsaw Pact and maintained a policy of neutrality. It embraced its role as a buffer between the Eastern and Western blocs.

However, that said, the Yugoslav Communist leadership must have been aware that in a world where the Warsaw Pact was defeated, they would have a hard time preserving their own position as leaders of the only Communist nation in Europe.

So if the Soviets make adequate progress in Germany, then they will get a Decision Event asking if they wish to entice Yugoslavia to their side. Yugoslavia's terms are that the Soviets have to commit themselves seriously to the invasion of Italy. If the Soviets say yes, then a top-rated army-strength formation deploys at Zagreb; if they say no, the same units show up in the Ukraine, but Yugoslavia stays out of the war.

This in turn affects Italy. Italy was a full member of NATO and, technically, committed to the defence of Western Europe. However Communist parties regularly scored 30-35% of the vote in Italian elections, and there was a widespread suspicion that if push came to shove, Italy might be an unreliable part of NATO - a 'soft southern flank'.

In this mod, Italy is a NATO major but won't fully mobilise unless there are hostile troops on its border. Either because of the USSR selecting the Yugoslavia event, or Soviet troops pushing into the Austrian Alps, or of course the USSR just declaring war.

Italian National Morale will also be the most fragile of any of the NATO majors. If the Eastern Block takes much of Northern Italy then probably the Italian government will collapse and a pacifist coalition of Communists and Socialists will take over. This in turn will have an impact on National Morale of the other NATO majors, and could affect victory.

There are a couple of other things in the Yugoslav situation. Yugoslavia has a navy, albeit mainly a defensive one. But the Adriatic ports might prove helpful for the Soviet Mediterranean fleet, which finds itself stuck in a hostile ocean. Also, Yugoslavia opens up new directions of attack into Austria and Greece, which may be relevant.

So here is the Soviet 6th Guards Army making an attack at the Italian border on Turn 2, supported by the Yugoslav army and airforce. The Italians had pushed a brigade forward into Trieste, which has just been destroyed. There are other Italian units on the other side of the Isonzo, and further reserves behind them...




[image]local://upfiles/34115/75206F1753A5456D877440052316A1FA.jpg[/image]



The Land -> The Med (1/25/2022 8:47:43 AM)

And now, the final (?) theatre of the mod!

The Mediterranean was arguably a 'NATO lake' - the USSR's nearest territory was in the Black Sea, and the Treaty of Montreux limited the number of ships that could pass through the Turkish Straits and into the Med. While all of the northern coast of the Med was NATO members. Despite that, it's an interesting theatre!

Soviet foreign policy tried very hard to gain some naval bases in the Mediterranean. In the 1980s, this meant that harbours in Libya and Syria were available to Soviet ships. I've made the assumption that this will continue to be the case in wartime.

At any time there were normally 40-50 Soviet warships in the Mediterranean. This figure includes small vessels, auxiliaries and so on (repair ships, tenders, oilers). But it's quite a lot, for a nation that didn't own any shore.

So I have several Soviet submarine units and one surface action group based around a Slava-class cruiser in the Med, waiting to cause as much disruption as possible to convoys from Japan and Saudi Arabia, or from North America to Turkey. As I mentioned earlier, the 1980s had far more globally integrated trade than the 1940s - and because of the shorter timescale of the mod, moving trade to go around the Cape would not have been feasible (a ship setting off from Suez to go that route would probably not arrive by the end of the game...) So there are more convoys, and the convoys are more vulnerable.

Not shown here is the US Seventh Fleet, which is lurking in the Western Med. It has a carrier battle group which will very likely sink or see off the Soviet surface ships. The question is whether it will take any damage first, and whether the NATO fleets will be able to provide meaningful help to the Balkan fronts...

[image]local://upfiles/34115/BF52241AF70545A78D11043E2AE9CBB3.jpg[/image]



The Land -> Beta version uploaded! (2/2/2022 10:02:59 AM)

I've put a new download in the first post in this thread. I'm calling this a beta, as it has complete OOBs (subject to polishing and so on. [And it doesn't have the USSR Caucasus forces in yet, whoops]).

It is very definitely playable - and fun! - but there is plenty of work still to do on it. I'd mainly suggest playing it hotseat against yourself, though you could also try against the AI and see what happens - the results should largely be satisfactory if you play as the USSR vs a NATO AI.

Enjoy! And if you do try it, please let me know your feedback - you will a) help shape the mod into something better, and b) motivate me to keep working on it at a faster rate!



Joesdd -> RE: Beta version uploaded! (2/2/2022 5:49:48 PM)

Sorry if this is just me being blind, but I don't see a .cgn file in the zip for the beta version. Will the mod still work without one?



The Land -> RE: Beta version uploaded! (2/2/2022 6:01:29 PM)

quote:

ORIGINAL: Joesdd

Sorry if this is just me being blind, but I don't see a .cgn file in the zip for the beta version. Will the mod still work without one?


Fixed! *facepalm*

Glad to see someone is interested enough to point that out though ;)



Joesdd -> RE: Beta version uploaded! (2/2/2022 6:06:25 PM)

No problem, I've always wanted a Cold War gone hot scenario for one of these games and I'm happy you have put so much work into making this!



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