RE: The battle continues...

RE: The battle continues... (Full Version)

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rtrapasso -> RE: The battle continues... (2/10/2005 7:38:10 PM)
quote: Idle curiosity, but did that make any dent in that 800k supply? Each supply hit is SUPPOSED to take out 1% of supplies. This SHOULD have hit 7% x 800000 tons = 56000 tons. (Not counting the Fuel hits) So were c. 56000 tons of supply sent up in smoke??

Freddy Fudpucker -> RE: The battle continues... (2/11/2005 3:59:45 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: rtrapasso Each supply hit is SUPPOSED to take out 1% of supplies. This SHOULD have hit 7% x 800000 tons = 56000 tons. (Not counting the Fuel hits) So were c. 56000 tons of supply sent up in smoke?? Wow, have I been miscalculating? I thought each hit wiped out 10% of supply!!!

rtrapasso -> RE: The battle continues... (2/11/2005 4:26:57 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Freddy Fudpucker quote: ORIGINAL: rtrapasso Each supply hit is SUPPOSED to take out 1% of supplies. This SHOULD have hit 7% x 800000 tons = 56000 tons. (Not counting the Fuel hits) So were c. 56000 tons of supply sent up in smoke?? Wow, have I been miscalculating? I thought each hit wiped out 10% of supply!!! Well, in my own games, supply hits don't seem to take out anywhere near 10%/supply hit. I think 1% is correct (i could be wrong...)

Andy Mac -> RE: The battle continues... (2/12/2005 3:18:02 PM)
Wobb whats the strategy for Northern India ? Defend Ahmabad - Delhi ? Hold Delhi just until forces get back to Ahmabad the retreat to last 2 or 3 bases ? I guess the question is do you have enough land units getting out of the pocket to hold both Delhi/Ahmabad and Karachi in strength ? or will you just try Karachi/ Ahmabad after you get troops back from lucknow. Andy

mogami -> RE: The battle continues... (2/12/2005 3:41:45 PM)
Hi, It does 1% to remaining supply so if you had 1000 supply and suffered ten hits it would not be 100 supply but 1st hit 10 supply 990 2nd hit 10 supply 980 3rd hit 10 supply 970 4th hit 10 supply 960 5th hit 10 supply 950 6th hit 10 supply 940 7th hit 9 supply 931 8th hit 9 supply 922 9th hit 9 supply 913 10th hit 9 supply 904 or 96 supply total. Meaning each hit subtracts damage before next hit calculates the 1% it will inflict. At 1% per hit from starting total 100 hits would destroy all supply but actual process would make it next to impossible to ever actually destroy 100 percent of supply because a hit only destroys 1% of remaining supply after previous hit damage is subtracted.

wobbly -> RE: The battle continues... (2/13/2005 10:02:46 AM)
Another bad day as the allies. My chinese roadblock South on Mandalay - despite having 2 1/2 times the japs' numbers is shunted aside. Diamond Harbour falls and apparently it falls with 200K of fuel still sitting there. And I forget to turn my mitchells flying out of Lunga to shortlands off and PzB lays a trap with some zeros to hammer them - it works. AS Mogami says his bombardments must be doing damage to supply but Bombay is a centre of supply - providing 3000 a day! THe amount he is destroying is leaving plenty! Andy. At present I am trying to hold in too many places and it is killign me. I wanted to hold the Ahlamabad Delhi line but I don't seem to be able to stop his eastern force. THe tanks are moving back and the infantry are hobbling after them but he only has to move 2 hexes - I have to move about 10! More on this later but I think I will have to relinquish Delhi. AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/18/42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Shortlands , at 63,93 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 27 A6M3 Zero x 8 Allied aircraft B-25C Mitchell x 19 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 2 destroyed, 3 damaged A6M3 Zero: 1 damaged Allied aircraft losses B-25C Mitchell: 28 destroyed, 9 damaged I loose 11 of the Mitchells - they retreat to Noumea and some SBDs take their place. I have far too many planes for air support - 92 for 28 support. I really need to get some engineers to the battlefield! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 32,32 Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 16978 troops, 48 guns, 94 vehicles Defending force 29475 troops, 121 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 2 to 1 Japanese ground losses: 533 casualties reported Guns lost 4 Vehicles lost 3 Allied ground losses: 619 casualties reported Guns lost 11 Defeated Allied Units Retreating! Damn - I really did not need this to happen. Some of my chinese actually managed to dig in deep enough that the 2-1 odds don't remove them. However enough do so that I can't stay. He will attack again next turn and the Chinese that haven't been forced to retreat will retreat and then the defense of Manadalay will be in jeopardy - I order everyone to retreat their relinquishing Pagan and the other base to the SE. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Diamond Harbor Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 24629 troops, 95 guns, 293 vehicles Defending force 3176 troops, 46 guns, 4 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 136 to 1 (fort level 6) Japanese forces CAPTURE Diamond Harbor base !!! Japanese aircraft no flights Japanese aircraft losses Ki-46-II Dinah: 6 destroyed Japanese ground losses: 43 casualties reported Guns lost 2 Allied ground losses: 3752 casualties reported Guns lost 19 Vehicles lost 1 THe two base units fall into his hands. Notice the 6 Dinahs lost... these suddenly appeared on my OOB? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 28,17 Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 47295 troops, 274 guns, 284 vehicles Defending force 21979 troops, 233 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 0 to 1 Japanese ground losses: 346 casualties reported Guns lost 9 Vehicles lost 4 Allied ground losses: 540 casualties reported Guns lost 15 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The blocking force to the East of Lucknow still holds his units. He is closing the door on the units I am trying to get out in the south now though. I don't know the timing I need here. ALl the units force to retreat in the east have 1 fort level at the crossroads between Ahlamabad and Delhi now, but the Aussie force really needs to rest for a week after being forced to retreat. This is my major problem. I can't stop him anywhere for long enough to rest tired troops - it is restricting my attempts to to defend majorly. I also have no HQs so my routed units don't repair. PzB is starting to get antsy about the DEI - in his words he will "spank me" if I try something there. He scouted the HMS Hermes this turn. I think he envisages Koepang at the moment. But this is bad timing for my invasion. Time to get it underway. Everything turns north. The base units will trail the main invasion which is probably a reasonable concession. At Tarawa the 1st Marines and their accompanying Paras and raiders unit are loaded aboard ships again headed for Luganville or possibly Lunga. It might be worth making the place a bit more secure. Another turn of juggling transport shipping and trying to get enough ships in position to load the engineers.

wobbly -> Grrrr - awful movement AI (2/14/2005 1:03:01 AM)
Not much to add. PzB catches and sinks SS-31. He also manages to rout and retreat the rest of my chinese and even worse the UK 2nd SE of Lucknow!! AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/19/42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Colombo , at 14,24 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 26 No Japanese losses Looking to clear fighters over Columbo - most likely to hit the place with bombers. I have therefore put some Wildcats up for defense - this may backfire as he could just continue to send zeros. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on 23rd AA Regiment, at 21,11 Allied aircraft Wellington III x 47 B-17E Fortress x 48 Allied aircraft losses Wellington III: 1 damaged Japanese ground losses: 206 casualties reported Guns lost 11 At last the B-17s and Wellingtons fly. The deside to pick on an AAA regiment unfortunately - I would much rather they hit a division. They do some reasonable damage though. 15!!!!!!!! B-17 are damaged on a 7 hex (one way) raid. They are NEVER going to stay airworthy if they fall to pieces that easily - what happens if they met zeros? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on 14th Army, at 28,17 Allied aircraft Blenheim IF x 10 Allied aircraft losses Blenheim IF: 3 damaged Japanese ground losses: 8 casualties reported I try to do the same against the protagonists below Lucknow but the bombers don't come along. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASW attack at 62,77 Japanese Ships DD Shiokaze DD Okikaze DD Yunagi DD Oite Allied Ships SS S-31, hits 4, on fire, heavy damage N of Truk the S-31 is found and sunk. I don't even know why I send the subs out - they are only good for targets. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 32,32 Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 16353 troops, 50 guns, 95 vehicles Defending force 14191 troops, 67 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 7 to 1 Japanese ground losses: 284 casualties reported Guns lost 4 Vehicles lost 2 Allied ground losses: 904 casualties reported Guns lost 22 The better fortified Chinese below Mandalay are forced to retreat to pagan. They join other forces on their way to mandalay. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 28,17 Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 47276 troops, 268 guns, 284 vehicles Defending force 20090 troops, 191 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 3 to 1 Japanese ground losses: 317 casualties reported Guns lost 3 Vehicles lost 2 Allied ground losses: 876 casualties reported Guns lost 36 Damn it! the UK 2nd are forced to retreat to Lucknow and are therefore suffering very high fatigue. I can't afford to retreat them any firther and have to hope the size 5 forts at Lucknow are enough to hold his units. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- It appears Pzb is unsure where I am about to hit, swinging backwards and forwards between the pacific and the DEI. If he chooses the DEi and bases the planes in the DEI there are two ways I can think about it: 1. Realise I will take a pounding from land based Naval bombers and be very tentative. 2. while they are on the ground, land based bombers are a target - hit them with bombardment groups. Well I am going with option 2 - so I am going to try and get a fast cruiser force into range of batavia - hopefully without detection - and hit Batavia with the cruisers and follow up with BBs. If he does fly it is likely to be without escorts and hopefully the carriers fighters can cut a swathe through the incoming bombers - this is just as good as bombarding the place! So two phases: Phase one. bombardment of Batavia followed by LRCAPed landings at Tjilitjap. 1 HQ, 2 Divisions, 1 RCT the tanks and a base unit allocated to this. They take Tjilitjap and move towards batavia taking the inland airbase - which will become the main base on the island. Phase two. Invasion at Madoien (I think that's the place SW of Soerbaja). with 2 Divisions and the rest of the troops to move on Soerbaja. The carriers and bombardment units will then get out of dodge - although I am likely to offload the air compliment of Wildcats and Devastators from the Lexington and Hornet, which are carrying SYS damage and are going to head for San Fran and AAA upgrades. I hate india. I had set up units retreating from jamshedpur to go to Lucknow and from there further North. In the attached picture is a visualisation of what actually happened. Two infantry units were heading NE to the trail - currently occupied by a Jap unit. They were therefore moving from a location owned by allies to a location controlled by Japs - legal. Last turn they units were at 59 and 58 miles out of their hex to the hex with the japs in. This turn they have TELEPORTED BACKWARDS to the trail between Jamshedpur and Hyderabad! Matrix what the hell is this! I am sick to death of trying to battle with this movement engine. You cannot trust the way your troops will travel! They leap off the trails willy nilly. It appears to work perfectly OK as long as no enemy are around then it is anyone's guess as to where they will go. Put this into the pot with not being able to order units to head for specific hexes when they are located with the enemy (you have to aim at a far off base) and you have zero control. Your units are very likely to leap off into the quagmire of a 'no trail' jungle hex taking 30 days to get out of - in other words cut off! These bugs make protracted land based combat IMPOSSIBLE! The current engine is only good for atoll combat - where land based movement is moot.

Andy Mac -> RE: Grrrr - awful movement AI (2/14/2005 1:30:31 AM)
Sad about the movement thats really crap. Isnt it getting time to abandon the remaining units in the south. Lucknow to Ahmabad is a long way and I am nervous about the ability of your blocking force to hold. You need as much firepower back in the Ahmabad - Karachi pocket as you can manage. Isnt it about time to bug out ? Andy

denisonh -> RE: Grrrr - awful movement AI (2/14/2005 5:36:59 AM)
Be careful about flying you B-17s at 6,000 ft at a AA heavy target. Fly them over 11000 and far fewer will get damaged.

ADavidB -> RE: Grrrr - awful movement AI (2/14/2005 6:06:45 AM)
quote: These bugs make protracted land based combat IMPOSSIBLE! The current engine is only good for atoll combat - where land based movement is moot. Wobbly - have Mog or Frag commented upon your movement problems? Thanks - Dave Baranyi

tsimmonds -> RE: Grrrr - awful movement AI (2/14/2005 3:04:32 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: ADavidB quote: These bugs make protracted land based combat IMPOSSIBLE! The current engine is only good for atoll combat - where land based movement is moot. Wobbly - have Mog or Frag commented upon your movement problems? Thanks - Dave Baranyi Guys, this is the WitP ground movement model working per design. As long as you begin the turn in what they so oddly call a "rail hex", you can move 90 miles in a day in any direction through any terrain, regardless of what direction the rail goes. The only way to deal with it is to use Andrew Brown's map data file mod. You can switch to this mod at any time, the only thing is that both sides in a PBEM need to switch together. Which means that either all your PBEM partners need to switch, or you have to have two instances of WitP on your machine, one modded one not. This is a great mod, I would not consider playing without it.

wobbly -> It comes down to this... (2/14/2005 11:55:50 PM)
The crux of India has arrived. Andy - all units bar the 2nd UK Division and a few base forces are streaming back to the pocket. This is why I am trying to hold onto Lucknow and the intersection between Delhi and Ahlamabad though - I need more time to get them into position. Denisonh - so far AAA has been pathetic. Only singleton planes damaged. The B-17s are fighting the 'we don't want uber B-17s - nueter them with damage' rule. I have no problems with the Wellingtons - just B-17s. Irrelevant - you had bought this up before and I had forgotten. I am going to talk to my pbem partners right away. Thanks again! AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/20/42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Colombo , at 14,24 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 18 G4M1 Betty x 18 Ki-43-Ib Oscar x 32 Allied aircraft F4F-4 Wildcat x 6 Japanese aircraft losses G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed, 10 damaged Ki-43-Ib Oscar: 2 destroyed Allied aircraft losses F4F-4 Wildcat: 12 destroyed, 4 damaged Allied ground losses: 10 casualties reported Port hits 1 As i thought PzB hits Columbo with his bombers. I have very few fighters left there and after they are destroyed there will be no more. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on 34th Division, at 21,11 Allied aircraft Wellington III x 15 B-17E Fortress x 11 No Allied losses Japanese ground losses: 132 casualties reported Guns lost 4 Vehicles lost 2 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on 38th Division, at 21,11 Allied aircraft Wellington III x 23 B-17E Fortress x 14 No Allied losses Japanese ground losses: 64 casualties reported Guns lost 2 Vehicles lost 1 Two aerial attacks on his eastern ground forces. I am looking to step this up further by moving the Beauforts, Blenheims and Hudsons to Ahlamabad. They are also going to be escorted now as he is very likely to try and LRCAP his troops. All the Kittyhawks, Warhawks and Wildcats are included in the effort. Base defense is left to Hurricanes, Mohawks, Buffalos and Spitfires. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 22,11 Allied Bombardment attack Attacking force 36959 troops, 381 guns, 251 vehicles Defending force 122448 troops, 1265 guns, 33 vehicles Japanese ground losses: 156 casualties reported Guns lost 5 Vehicles lost 1 This is my problem. 5 Divisions of crack troops against 2 Divisions (1 was recently forced to retreat), 1 very tired brigade of the 18th Div, 1 brigade of tanks and some artillery. They are all at fort level 2 except the Aussies which are again at fort level 9 - go figure. Essentially these guys have to hold for about 3 days - maybe 4. I don't hold out much hope at all - the forts aren't extensive enough. However, if they do the defensive force will be bolstered by 1 full brigade of tanks, 1 half brigade of tanks and the Carabineer unit - about 600 AFVs. If that holds then things are looking a whole lot better. Too many ifs there unfortunately. 10 days until the first Chindit unit. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The prelimenary moves of the Java invasion are about 4 days off - bombardment of Batavia. The invasion forces have not yet been seen and I am trying to skirt his CS and the search planes out of Java itself. Each additional day is a great bonus. At tarawa the 1st Marines depart and head further West. the heavy surface force goes with them. Unfortunately PzB scouts them going south - this may mean he no longer views them as a threat. equally it may cause him more trepidation - maybe he figures I am moving away to come abck elsewhere. It's a moot point really as the invasion of Java is upon us.

Andy Mac -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/14/2005 11:59:21 PM)
Might be worth creating a few transports with 2 or three ships and make damn sure he spots em in Sopac Confusion to the Japanese and PZB !!!!

toraq -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 2:03:25 PM)
Wobbly, India is toasted[:(]... So far, I think your Java invasion comes too late to help the India defenders. For me there is still one chance to avoid India fall. This could sound stupid, but I only try to help, OK?[;)] Send reinforces to Bombay and try to cut enemy Divs at Ahmabad - Karachi pocket[sm=00000036.gif]: The plan: now your invasion forces should be at 80-90 hexes from Bombay, three weeks at full speed (transport speed). In three weeks PzP is surely to be in the Ahmabad-Karachi line so if you land at Bombay, you�ll cut those divisions there. - You may land some troops at Java to confuse PzP: the RCT rgt, the USMC raider Btll and elements of the other divisions (only elements!). And show your carrier and BB power. - Meanwhile your main forces, at full speed, would continue to Bombay, through the sea gap, were they would be undetected. - Two or three days after, your CVs and BBs would join the transports. - With your 5 CVs you can surprise any attempt to land/bomb Karachi by sea. If PzP tries this (maybe in two-three weeks) instead of sending his troops by railway, your 5 CVs would be around to avoid it. - Bombay has enough resources to provide supplies and fuel for your troops - Your forces should be undetected for at least two weeks. - With 4 div. at Bombay, India should not fall, even if you can�t trap his forces in the Karachi-Ahmabad pocket. Even if your force is detected, your 5 CVs can provide enough CAP to avoid heavy damage to your fleet. It seems that his CVs are gone and maybe split between India and Pacific area...You take some risk but I think he can�t avoid your attempt. Anyway, this is only a plan. I think if India falls you will lose A LOT of troops, planes and so, that�s why I thought about this. [:)]. Just check it out if you have enough fuel to do or if you see if it is viable. P.S: One thing I don�t like of the Java invasion is that there are many airports around, from where he can base bombers and attack your forces. You may close one or two but I count them and there are more than one or two!

Hoplosternum -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 3:36:30 PM)
Toraq, While I think you are correct and India is finished it is possible the war is not. Wobbly will be up against a huge VP defecit to avoid a 4:1 loss if India falls. But he still has a few months to pull this around (??) as I don't think the auto loss kicks in until the end of the first year of war or perhaps until 1943. If he can do enough 1:1 exchanges he can avert defeat. And PzB cannot ignore the loss of Java. He must throw a lot at it otherwise he will have all his resources destroyed by Strategic Bombing in weeks followed probably by most of the bases shortly afterwards. Yes there are lots of bases for the Japanese bombers. But Wobbly has plenty of Mediums and 4E ones of his own now (I hope!). He cannot keep all the bases closed but he can certainly close any that start basing Nells / Bettys. He'll really erode them if he can hit them on the ground. Bettys / Nells only use their ship killing Torpedos in range 15 or less. While the Liberators (range 14) and B17s (range 13) will still drop enough at extended range to kill a lot of Japanese aircraft on the ground. Wobbly can base his bombers forward and keep his supply ships docked on the other side of the island.... Maybe taking Java will open an air bridge via Burma for 4E bombers? They may even enable allow Wobbly to survive in India, but I doubt it. Good luck Wobbly! If the war does not end at Karachi then make sure you have evacuated a few fragments from India. If the war drags on into '43 and '44 you will be many divisions down and PzB will be many up (as he has no Indian front to worry about). It takes c. 8 months per UK division and Indian division to be rebuilt with the replacement rates. But there is no need to let those replacements go to waste! It may seem a little gamey but no worse than the game not triggering some accelerated UK reinforcements once India is invaded. A sub transport can still get the necessary fragments away. Even the armour can be grabbed. A Stuart just about fits on a sub apparently [;)]

Gen.Hoepner -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 3:42:33 PM)
I do think that if you land a stron foothold in Java Pzg will be in serious trouble. There is no way he can handle your 4E bombers and however he will be forced to shift all those zeros that operate in India to Singapore. Force an attrition battle and he won't win by the end of the year.....

Andy Mac -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 3:58:59 PM)
India toasted... No Nay Never !!! I think Wobb just needs to run back to Ahmahabad as fast as he can. Its an out and out race now if wobb cannot hold south of Ahmabad then I think its time for spoiling forces to advance and try and delay the IJA advance. Whats the fort level at Ahmahabad Wobb high enough to hold out ?? Andy

Andy Mac -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 4:12:21 PM)
Also key point Delhi is a city hex so automatic 4 x defence. If Wobb can hold at Ahmabad and get to Delhi 1st and dig in a little the chances are he can fight an orderly retreat even if he cannot combine armies using delhi as a lynchpin in th east slowly retreat units out of the cul de sac and use air transport or even march them across the plain. Pity there is no river transport really the allies would be able to to shift quite quickly to Karachi (on the other hand so would the IJA so perhaps not a bad thing. PZB's troops must be getting weaker as the spearhead is dispersed garrisoning coastal bases and providing base forces. One hard check allied with the DEI operation should be able to slow him down. I would be prepping every troop I had for either Karachi/ Delhi or Ahmabad. Dig in at all three and cling on for dear life. Round the clock bombing of every formation that is moving. Harass/ Disrupt and Harry em. Keep it up Wobb !!!

toraq -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 5:36:13 PM)
I don�t want to be pessimist but India is toasted...[:(] - In India there are no forces to stop the japanese advance. Even if Dehli or Ahmabad holds PzP can still try to disembark at Karachi. - Jap. still has air supremacy and it doesn�t seem to me that this is going to change in the next 3 months. PzP can close any airport there quite easily and no enough spits to fight the Zeros - Jap. has surface supremacy there...so no way to avoid future landings at Karachi. Bombay is a good port to base the invasion force. Close to Karachi, full of supplies and fuel. I�ll start to recon Bombay to see if PzP stocks forces there. In regards of Java...Yes it is a good place to invade but PzP still has enough air force to cause heavy damage to the allied forces. Heavies can close some airports but since the Zeros are still the best aircraft, and you can�t escort the heavies...Maybe too costly. PzP IS DECIDED to complete the India invasion so there are little chances that he diverts many troops from India. However, when India falls, Java will be very important to start pounding japanese bases. Wobbly, forgive me if I feel sure about the Indian debacle. I�m just trying to be realistic. I hope I�m wrong. [sm=00000007.gif]. Good luck warrior, Hokka Hey!!! A good day to die! [sm=00000106.gif]

String -> RE: Grrrr - awful movement AI (2/15/2005 6:18:39 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: wobbly Phase two. Invasion at Madoien (I think that's the place SW of Soerbaja). with 2 Divisions and the rest of the troops to move on Soerbaja. The carriers and bombardment units will then get out of dodge - although I am likely to offload the air compliment of Wildcats and Devastators from the Lexington and Hornet, which are carrying SYS damage and are going to head for San Fran and AAA upgrades. I dunno, I would hang around until the initial response from PZB. .. he no longer needs his carriers near india so they'll come in soon enough

Andy Mac -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 6:30:30 PM)
It appears that he is focussed on India exclusivley. Had he not been he would have stopped in the south but when Rapier Mk 2 hits home and the sheer scale of it sinks in and if Wobb can check him even temporarily he MAY decide to turn around. It is a hell of a long logistics tail he has now. And ignoring VP's he is in a far from enviable position. in 6 months Wobb will be able to atoll jump towards Japan from Tarawa with a full complement of CV's. The committment to India must have cost PZB and wobb will take advantage of it in early 43 if he can fight on. I mean Java can provide air superiority over most of PZB's resourece sites once P38's arrive from a bombardment fee airbase at Bandoeng. I am convinced PZB has strategically overextended. If the Brits can just cling on and stay in the fight he will lose this one.... Andy

paullus99 -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 7:06:52 PM)
Ultimately - the longer PZB is in India & occupied, he's at the end of a very long and vulnerable supply line. Java is going to be a bloodbath regardless, since PZB will probably have to throw everything but the kitchen sink to retake whatever he loses. This could be Guadalcanal on a huge scale & with the committment to India - I don't know if the Japanese have the ability to pull it off.

kaiser73 -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 7:36:05 PM)
Once India is taken, PzB will have freed lot of land units to retake Java and defend in pacific. i don't think Japan is overextended. Once India falls, he is going to retake Java and there is nothing Allies can do given he will have the whole India army to do that. Japan would be overextended if he needs to defend India. But he doesn't. Once India is taken, he can defend India by defending Java (something he should defend anyway even if he hadn't gone for India). He also still has his CV TF, so it's not that easy and fast to atoll jump by allies in 6 months.

rtrapasso -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 8:11:25 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: kaiser73 Once India is taken, PzB will have freed lot of land units to retake Java and defend in pacific. i don't think Japan is overextended. Once India falls, he is going to retake Java and there is nothing Allies can do given he will have the whole India army to do that. Japan would be overextended if he needs to defend India. But he doesn't. Once India is taken, he can defend India by defending Java (something he should defend anyway even if he hadn't gone for India). He also still has his CV TF, so it's not that easy and fast to atoll jump by allies in 6 months. He only has his whole India Army if he strips India bare. How likely is he to do that?

Arstavidios -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 9:08:15 PM)
Well, whatever happens in India it will take a long time before Japanese units get back from there. A lot can be achieved in Java during that time. The allies have an awful lot of aircraft, and it is possible to make a huge CAP over Java. If the Japanese want to counterattack, they will have to face all these LBAs. If they don't, their resources in the DEI will be at risk. Moreover Java is a good place to base subs, and I think it's a good idea to base as many of them as possible there.

Hornblower -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 9:53:42 PM)
PZB at this rate is going to be linking up with the German 6th Army at Stalingrad in 3 months!! Need a mod for that! Seriously, The longer Wobbly hold in India, the more vernurable the rest of PZB�s fronts become. When Wobbly takes Java, and stations subs and air assets on it, PZB has to react. Has to. Just like Lee had to react to Grants move on Petersburg in 1864, so does PZB have to react to Wobbly. In time Wob will have the SRA under a LBA umbrella. And so what if PZB has the oil centers in the bay of Bengal, he still has to get it to Japan!

Andy Mac -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 10:11:05 PM)
And as for garrisons PZB HAS to leave 2 Divisons at least at both Bombay and Karachi IF he can take them and I am far from convinced that Wobb wont stop him. Nothing would be easier than for an mid 43 offensive by Wobb to retake one of those two ports from the sea in a surprise raid suddenly multiple Indian and British Divions appear not to mention all RN replacements. Despite having no garrison requirement PZB MUST heavily garrison those bases or face a Pheonix from the flames.... I am sorry but in my view this is far from over ;) Between Java and an allied invasion of Bombay / Karachi it isnt possible for the IJA to leave India ungarrisoned. Its one of the things I love about an India offensive by the IJA even if they win they must leave forces to hold it. Consider this if we are looking at a historic position in SEAC how many divisins would the Japanese leave to hold the front in Burma. 5 or 6 Divisions ? no more are really required given the requirement of the Indian Army to cross the trails. 2 Divisons at Mandalay, 2 Resting in Rangoon from rotation to the front and perhaps 1 at Akyab or a reserve to cover Moulmien. It doesnt take much to hold Burma from the trails. Garrsoning India and Burma well PZB will still need to cover Rangoon and probably Ceylon plus strong garrisons in Bombay and Karachi. Yes the VP's are nice but if and I say again if Karachi falls this is far from over it will be retaken at some stage.... Take back Bombay in mid 43 from the sea when the allies have lots of forces and suddenly 4 or 5 Indian/British Inf Divisions 4 or 5 HQ's 30 or 40 Sqns of aircraft and several base aviation and US Tank Bns appear. PZB will not be able to strip India bare no matter what he may want to do. Therefore the mythical extra forces he will free up are what I hope he does. Anyway thats my tuppence worth Andy

Andy Mac -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 10:22:27 PM)
Also if it comes down to siege of Karachi after the Rapier 2 invasion occurs I would want my BB's pounding Karachi if I was PZB... But will he leave his CV's there with the US CV's at Java ? If he doesnt then all it is is US / RN CV's plus whats left of the RAF against IJN Bombardment TF's. Sink a few BB's and suddenly the loss of Karachi doenst even take you over the 4:1 autovictory. And after getting ashore on Java and getting LBA and fighters there Wobbly has options about doing a speed run to Colombo or points north. Lets face it the corridor north of Ceylon has caused the destruction of the RN because it is a trap well a trap cuts both ways if PZB leaves his BB's tyhere but removes his CV's thats 1000 VP of old BB's that are suddenly vulnerable Its risky but even a feint that way has to make PZB think long and hard about what he is doing...

Hornblower -> RE: It comes down to this... (2/15/2005 11:29:46 PM)
quote: ORIGINAL: Andy Mac And as for garrisons PZB HAS to leave 2 Divisons at least at both Bombay and Karachi IF he can take them and I am far from convinced that Wobb wont stop him. Nothing would be easier than for an mid 43 offensive by Wobb to retake one of those two ports from the sea in a surprise raid suddenly multiple Indian and British Divions appear not to mention all RN replacements. Despite having no garrison requirement PZB MUST heavily garrison those bases or face a Pheonix from the flames.... I am sorry but in my view this is far from over ;) Between Java and an allied invasion of Bombay / Karachi it isnt possible for the IJA to leave India ungarrisoned. Its one of the things I love about an India offensive by the IJA even if they win they must leave forces to hold it. Consider this if we are looking at a historic position in SEAC how many divisins would the Japanese leave to hold the front in Burma. 5 or 6 Divisions ? no more are really required given the requirement of the Indian Army to cross the trails. 2 Divisons at Mandalay, 2 Resting in Rangoon from rotation to the front and perhaps 1 at Akyab or a reserve to cover Moulmien. It doesnt take much to hold Burma from the trails. Garrsoning India and Burma well PZB will still need to cover Rangoon and probably Ceylon plus strong garrisons in Bombay and Karachi. Yes the VP's are nice but if and I say again if Karachi falls this is far from over it will be retaken at some stage.... Take back Bombay in mid 43 from the sea when the allies have lots of forces and suddenly 4 or 5 Indian/British Inf Divisions 4 or 5 HQ's 30 or 40 Sqns of aircraft and several base aviation and US Tank Bns appear. PZB will not be able to strip India bare no matter what he may want to do. Therefore the mythical extra forces he will free up are what I hope he does. Anyway thats my tuppence worth Andy quote: I agree- the more ground you take the more you have to hold.

wobbly -> Invasion force attacked (2/16/2005 1:32:11 AM)
JAVA INVASION FOUND!!! Indain plug forces spanked back towards Ahlamabad. Boy oh Boy it is all go. Gentlemen - the debating starts again... I'll be writing a large amount at the end of this combat replay. I missed a turn in which the forces in the East tried to hold at the juncture between Ahlamabad and Delhi. The Oz Division has been savaged it has only 200 of about 340 infantry squads remaining! AFTER ACTION REPORTS FOR 06/22/42 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Sub attack at 68,100 Japanese Ships SS I-7 Allied Ships APD Colhoun, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage APD McKean APD Little APD Gregory APD Manley My ASW attempt on a sub up by Lunga backfires and I loose the Colhoun. Woops. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Kendari , at 33,71 Japanese aircraft A6M2 Zero x 12 Allied aircraft B-17E Fortress x 86 Japanese aircraft losses A6M2 Zero: 22 destroyed, 16 damaged G3M Nell: 16 destroyed, 4 damaged G4M1 Betty: 2 destroyed Allied aircraft losses B-17E Fortress: 9 destroyed, 22 damaged Japanese ground losses: 176 casualties reported Guns lost 1 Airbase hits 8 Airbase supply hits 4 Runway hits 43 At last - I had the B-17s at Darwin aimed Kendari - he had masses of planes on the ground there but weather and trepidation on the part of my Pilots means they didn't fly. Well they did today and for the loss of 5 B-17s I savage the planes on the ground. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on Koepang , at 28,77 Allied aircraft Hudson I x 15 B-25C Mitchell x 15 No Allied losses Airbase hits 1 Runway hits 4 the continuation of suppression of Koepang. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on TF, near Lae at 54,87 Allied aircraft Beaufort V-IX x 9 Allied aircraft losses Beaufort V-IX: 3 damaged Japanese Ships ML Aotaka ML Wakatake, Torpedo hits 1, on fire, heavy damage Aircraft Attacking: 2 x Beaufort V-IX launching torpedoes at 200 feet 3 x Beaufort V-IX launching torpedoes at 200 feet 4 x Beaufort V-IX launching torpedoes at 200 feet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on TF at 17,70 Japanese aircraft G4M1 Betty x 3 Allied aircraft F4F-4 Wildcat x 22 Japanese aircraft losses G4M1 Betty: 6 destroyed, 1 damaged Hullo - what's this out in the ocean PzB. Unknown but it has F4F-4s flying above it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on TF at 16,69 Japanese aircraft G3M Nell x 12 Allied aircraft Fulmar x 15 F4F-4 Wildcat x 60 Japanese aircraft losses G3M Nell: 27 destroyed, 3 damaged Better send a few more unescorted naval bombers to check - yup, there does appear to be a carrier there - in fact more than one. More Nells go swimming -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Day Air attack on TF at 16,69 Japanese aircraft G3M Nell x 3 G4M1 Betty x 16 Allied aircraft Fulmar x 15 F4F-4 Wildcat x 60 Japanese aircraft losses G3M Nell: 6 destroyed, 2 damaged G4M1 Betty: 38 destroyed, 4 damaged Allied aircraft losses F4F-4 Wildcat: 2 damaged Allied Ships BB Maryland Now the Betties have a crack and they even manage a run against the Maryland. The pay heavily for the privalege. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Taung Gyi Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 2175 troops, 9 guns, 93 vehicles Defending force 640 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 99 to 1 (fort level 3) Japanese forces CAPTURE Taung Gyi base !!! Allied aircraft no flights No Allied losses Allied ground losses: 16 casualties reported My base force below Mandalay has no chance against the encroaching japanese infantry. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at 22,11 Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 116641 troops, 1181 guns, 25 vehicles Defending force 11921 troops, 113 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese assault odds: 26 to 1 Japanese ground losses: 68 casualties reported Guns lost 5 Allied ground losses: 806 casualties reported Guns lost 23 Defeated Allied Units Retreating! Here is the Oz Division getting savaged. It has halted the advancement of his forces for another day. this is the problem with having this unit constantly set to level 9 forts. They don't retreat with the rest of the army. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Bombay Japanese Deliberate attack Attacking force 36220 troops, 222 guns, 5 vehicles Defending force 2150 troops, 16 guns, 0 vehicles Japanese engineers reduce fortifications to 3 Japanese assault odds: 20 to 1 (fort level 3) Japanese forces CAPTURE Bombay base !!! Japanese ground losses: 57 casualties reported Guns lost 2 Vehicles lost 1 Allied ground losses: 2303 casualties reported Guns lost 14 bombay falls and with it he gets a mountain of Fuel and supplies. The question will be - now that he knows I am after java - well at least that I have an invasion force heading North - will he continue with BB bombardments up north - will all the carriers head south? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ground combat at Makin Allied Shock attack Attacking force 196 troops, 8 guns, 0 vehicles Defending force 0 troops, 0 guns, 0 vehicles Allied assault odds: 3 to 1 (fort level 0) Allied forces CAPTURE Makin base !!! Just to add some worries to his brow I also take Makin, N of Tarawa. All these islands in this group (don't remember the name) are now allied. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- A good day for the Allies despite the savaging of the Oz forces and the loss of Bombay. My invasion forces are now 2 days sailing from Tjilijap. This is the initial landing site, In this time I imagine a massive increase in enemy airforces moving to halt or at least hurt my invaision. I know there is some worry about the number of bases that there are in Java but I am reasonably happy that not all of them are populated with enemy base forces. These will be 4 or so tentative days while the troops are landed. I want to make a second landing as well at Malang so even more time in the firing line. During this time I am going to be heavily dependent on the Wildcats and Fulmars of my carriers - zeros will be coming with the bombers from now on so the one way traffic of today will not continue. However, I lost 5 ACs today - the B-17s, to his 75. Many of those were Betties and Nells so this was a nice chunk of culling. A third landing is also in the wings on one of the islands in the chain of the lower Indonesian Islands. I need this as a stepping stone for the shorter legged fighters. All in all I have to hunker down and take the pounding that is most definately going to come my way. The biggest unknown is "where are his carriers"? If they returned to Indian waters to replenish I have a window for the invasion. If they went to Singapore or worse Java, then this could all be over very quickly. India is a lost cause I think. Unfortunately what no-one appears to have listed is the VPs he is going to get from capturing about 120K allied troops! This of course will not be counting the shorter legged ACs that can't make it to Columbo - a very temporary refuge I would think. I think I have to relinquish Dehli. That does depend a little on how he moves now - if everything goes for Ahlamabad then he leaves Delhi and the road from Lucknow open. This means the trickle of troops returning to the pocket will continue. This is the best move he can make as there is a window available to quickly take Ahlamabad. The answer to your question Andy - about forts at Ahlamabad is they are level 2 - that's right - with 8 Engineers there they appear to be crawling up in size. I may be level 4 by the time they get there but I don't know. I am however, more inclined to agree that he may split his assault and move on Delhi to block more reinforcements. This is also bad as it will do just that. However, I may be able to hold out longer in this case. Delhi has size 4 forts - nearly 5. I need size 9 forts and just don't have them. One small glimmer is that if I make it to size 4 and he sends the whole force he attacked my plug units with then he may just struggle to get the odds straight away - he got odds of 5 to one against teh units in teh open - this is against more units and in a city. Added to this is all the base units that will be helping with defense - they have not been included in any defense so far. He does have a quandary now though - how much does he pull back against java? What air support will his ground forces have? I am going to be pounding his advancing forces from a very close proximity. I will be running the risk of loosing every bomber and fighter that are located in the hexes they are based unfortunately - but we are down to it aren't we. Added to this I think he is trying an end run on my with forces from lower India - in other words an invasion straight into Karachi. I have 1 Brigade waiting in the base below karachi for this and the Chindit unit will look to add it's weight to this as well. Any units that need a rest will be pulled out of the line back to this base. So can also move back to Karachi if required. Will he or wont he retire the BBs back to the Java effort? Just to round things off Lucknow is about to feel the first assaults I would imagine. Only the UK 2nd reside here and they are tired. But the Ind III HQ have managed to get onto the rail line BEHIND the jap forces. They can now move up to the hex that the japs are in and block supplies! I can replace them with another unit and get them moving back to the rear - but I may not loose them after all! Way back in San Fran the BB North Carolina and the newly repaired and now AAA upgraded Oklahoma put to sea with a small escort bound for Pearl.

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